Core Viewpoint - Shuanghui Development reported a revenue decline of 0.55% in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of revenue decrease, attributed to intense market competition and declining demand for its products [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shuanghui achieved a total revenue of 59.561 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.989 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year decline of 0.55% and 1.26% respectively [2][3] - The company's revenue from fresh pork products dropped from 48.267 billion yuan in 2020 to 30.334 billion yuan in 2024, while revenue from packaged meat products fell from 28.098 billion yuan to 24.788 billion yuan during the same period [3] Sales and Market Dynamics - Sales volume of meat products decreased by 1.67% year-on-year, with packaged meat products down by 6.11% and fresh pork products down by 4.4% [3][4] - The market for meat products is facing challenges due to changing consumer preferences towards fresh, minimally processed meat, impacting traditional products like ham [4] Inventory and Supply Chain - As of the end of 2024, Shuanghui's inventory was close to 7 billion yuan, which is higher than in previous years despite declining revenues, leading to a decreasing inventory turnover rate [3][6] - The company has been adjusting its sales strategy by reducing low-margin channel sales to protect fresh product profits, resulting in a decrease in slaughter volume [2][3] Debt and Dividend Policy - Shuanghui has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 4.885 billion yuan in total dividends for 2024, with a payout ratio of 97.92% [5][6] - The company's interest-bearing debt has significantly increased from 2.364 billion yuan in 2021 to 7.924 billion yuan in 2024, raising concerns about its financial sustainability [6][7]

相关产品：农业50ETF(159827) 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 天风证券复盘，历史上的猪周期通常3-5年演绎一轮，而自18年行业经历非瘟后，猪周期有所变 形，每轮周期演绎时长均较非瘟前有所缩短。结合行业产能变化的三要素，即猪舍、母猪和流动资金， 我们可以预测到非瘟后的红利或已基本结束，猪周期有望逐步回归常态，蛛网模型仍将继续演绎。建议 重视生猪板块低估值、预期差。在25年猪价持续低位&成本或难有下降甚至抬升&疫情或有所干扰情况 下，后续产能去化容易程度及复产难度或再度提升，产能长期仍有望波动去化。估值目前处在相对低 位，生猪板块价值凸显。从2024年头均市值看，多股估值处在历史相对底部区间，头均市值或仍有显著 上涨空间。 中原证券表示，2025 年 2 月，白羽肉鸡鸡苗均 2.19 元/羽，环比下滑0.30 元/羽，同比下跌 1.99 元/ 羽；白羽肉鸡均价 3.09 元/斤，环比下滑 0.54 元/斤，跌幅 14.88%；同比下滑 0.81 元/斤。春节后，市场 处于供强需弱的状态，导致月均毛鸡价格下跌。随着成本压力缓解和鸡价的企稳反弹，有望推动养殖行 业利润弹性逐步释放，行业相关上市公司盈利 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,370.03, up by 0.15% [2] - The agricultural sector's performance was mixed, with the agricultural and forestry sector declining by 0.94% during the week [3] Agricultural Sector Insights - The demand for aquaculture feed is expected to bottom out and recover, with a positive outlook for Haida Group [3] - The average price of live pigs in key provinces showed mixed results, with prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan at 14.65, 15.62, and 14.57 CNY/kg respectively [3] - The overall financial situation in the pig farming industry is under significant pressure, with a focus on reducing debt rather than rapidly increasing production capacity [3] - Recommendations include companies like Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope in the pig farming sector [3] Chemical Raw Materials Sector - The new materials sector saw a decline, with the new materials index down by 2.54% [4] - The domestic aviation SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) pilot program has entered its second phase, with a focus on green transformation in the aviation industry [5] - The global SAF market is expected to face supply-demand tightness, with a projected global production of 2.1 million tons in 2025 [5] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with 39.5 GW added in January-February 2025, a 7.49% increase year-on-year [7] - The price of polysilicon remained stable, with the average price at 40.0 CNY/kg [8] - Recommendations for investment include companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko Solar, focusing on new technology and supply-side improvements [8] Coal Industry Insights - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with the reference price for thermal coal at 682 CNY/ton, down by 1.45% [12] - The metallurgical coal sector is expected to stabilize as downstream demand improves, with a focus on macroeconomic policies [14] - Investment recommendations include companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are seen as undervalued [18] Precision Injection Molding Sector - The company specializes in precision injection molding, focusing on lightweight trends in automotive and robotics sectors [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity and has established stable partnerships with major automotive and appliance manufacturers [21] - The projected net profit for the company is expected to grow significantly over the next few years, with a strong outlook for the lightweight materials market [21] Retail Sector Insights - Miniso reported a revenue of 16.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.84% [25] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence while optimizing its domestic operations [24] - The expected revenue growth for Miniso is projected to accelerate in the coming years, with a strong emphasis on improving profit margins [24]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 3月20日，猪茅牧原股份将发布2024年度财报业绩。 根据此前的预告，牧原2024年度的归母净利润将达170亿元–180亿元，由上年同期亏损42.63亿元转为增长约5.0-5.2倍。扣非净利润190亿元– 200亿元，由上年同期亏损39.18亿元转为增长约5.85-6.1倍。 预告解释，利润巨幅扭亏的主要原因是报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。 也就是量价齐升，同时成本下降，使得利润-成本剪刀差重新急速扩大。 这无疑是一份堪称非常亮眼的数据。 "猪茅"牧原的业绩飙升，会是今年猪行业迎来景气周期的开始吗？ 从历史看，每一轮猪周期大约持续3-4年，本质是能繁母猪补栏→育肥→出栏的滞后性引发的猪肉价格波动。 简单来说，当猪价上涨时，养殖户扩产导致未来供给过剩，价格下跌；亏损后产能出清，供给减少又推动价格回升，如此循环往复。猪企业对 应的也有经典的四阶段为：亏损去产能→供给收缩→价格上涨→盈利扩产。 自2003年以来，中国生猪产业大致经历了六轮完整周期。 其中，在由非洲猪瘟引发的第五轮超级 ...

Group 1: Core Logic of the Pig Cycle - The core logic chain of changes in the breeding sow inventory is summarized as: breeding profit fluctuations → capacity adjustment decisions (restocking/elimination) → changes in breeding sow inventory → piglet supply → future adjustments in pig supply → cyclical price fluctuations [2][3] - The essence of the pig cycle is the lagged transmission between breeding sow inventory and pig prices, rooted in the long production cycle characteristics and supply-demand mismatches [3][4] Group 2: Theoretical Lag and Practical Verification - The complete production chain from restocking breeding sows to market pigs takes 10-13 months, with significant negative correlation (r=-0.75) between breeding sow inventory and pig prices 13 months later [5][6] - Historical data shows that each round of breeding sow reduction is typically over 8%, which is sufficient to support a new price increase cycle [8] Group 3: 2025 Pig Production Capacity Outlook - As of January 2025, the national breeding sow inventory is 40.62 million heads, slightly down month-on-month but up 0.8% year-on-year, exceeding the normal inventory level [10] - The main trend for 2025 is expected to be simultaneous capacity expansion and structural adjustment, with leading companies continuing to increase output while low-efficiency capacity is being eliminated [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a buy rating for Hai Da Group (002311.SZ) with an "A" rating, and a buy rating for Sheng Nong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) with a "B" rating. Other companies like Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhong Chong Shares (002891.SZ) are rated as "A" for increase, while Tang Ren Shen (002567.SZ), Shen Nong Group (605296.SH), Ju Xing Nong Mu (603477.SH), and New Hope (000876.SZ) are rated as "B" for increase [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in pig prices, yet they remain within a profitable range. The report indicates that the pig price in the off-season is still maintaining profitability [2][4]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, despite the average debt ratio still needing to decrease significantly. The market's expectations regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability may be overly pessimistic [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices and improving breeding conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 7, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan are 14.85, 15.32, and 14.39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.07%, 0.99%, and 0.35% respectively. The average pork price is 20.81 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.24% [3][23]. - The average wholesale price for piglets is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, up by 2.75%, while the average price for two-yuan sows remains stable at 32.47 yuan per kilogram [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens is 6.59 yuan per kilogram, up by 8.03%, and the price for broiler chicks is 2.54 yuan per chick, up by 10.92%. However, the breeding profit is negative at -1.90 yuan per chick [31]. Feed Processing - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is reported at 31,503.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year. The production of pig feed is 14,391.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [34]. Market Performance - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the agricultural sector rose by 1.04%, ranking 20th among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries include food and feed additives, animal health, fruit and vegetable processing, pig farming, and chicken farming [2][17].

Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for several stocks in the agriculture sector, with "Buy-A" ratings for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" ratings for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [1]. Core Insights - The livestock farming sector is expected to see improved performance in 2024, with a focus on the profitability of pig farming as the industry enters a recovery phase [4]. - The report highlights that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, overlooking potential positive influences from declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [4]. - The poultry industry is also showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for broiler chickens and eggs, indicating potential profitability improvements [26]. Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - As of February 28, 2025, average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 14.84, 15.17, and 14.34 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.98%, 3.80%, and 2.05% respectively [3]. - The average pork price was 20.86 yuan/kg, down 2.75% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price for piglets increased by 0.44% to 27.25 yuan/kg [3][18]. - The self-breeding profit was 43.08 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 9.39 yuan/head [3][18]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens was 6.10 yuan/kg, up 3.92% week-on-week, and the price for broiler chicks rose by 9.05% to 2.29 yuan/chick [26]. - Egg prices increased by 5.41% to 7.80 yuan/kg [26]. Feed Processing - In 2024, the total industrial feed production in China decreased by 2.1% to 31,503.1 million tons, with pig feed production down 3.9% to 14,391.3 million tons [30]. - The production of pet feed, however, saw a growth of 9.3%, indicating a potential area of opportunity within the feed sector [30]. Aquaculture - As of February 28, 2025, prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass remained stable at 180.00 yuan/kg, 300.00 yuan/kg, and 50.00 yuan/kg respectively [34]. - Freshwater fish prices showed mixed results, with grass carp at 15.02 yuan/kg (down 0.66%) and crucian carp at 20.55 yuan/kg (up 0.05%) [34]. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 28, 2025, soybean prices were 3,878.89 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, while corn and wheat prices were 2,218.14 yuan/ton and 2,434.28 yuan/ton, respectively, showing slight increases [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the proposals and insights shared by Liu Yonghao, Chairman of New Hope Group, during a media communication meeting, focusing on agricultural development, support for the private economy, and rural entrepreneurship. Group 1: Proposals and Themes - Liu Yonghao plans to submit five proposals at the upcoming National People's Congress, focusing on "three rural issues," the private economy, poverty alleviation, and rural construction [1] - The call for subsidies for durable consumer goods and the issuance of consumption vouchers to stimulate consumption [2][9] - Suggestions to support young entrepreneurs moving to rural areas with subsidies, such as providing 10,000 yuan for university graduates starting businesses in rural areas [2][10] Group 2: Industry Insights - Traditional industries like meat, eggs, and dairy will not disappear; efforts should focus on expanding scale, introducing technology, optimizing varieties, and improving efficiency [2] - New Hope is exploring "AI + modern agriculture," aiming to enhance feed formulation, genetic testing in breeding, cold chain logistics efficiency, and disease prevention through AI [2][6] - The company is working to reduce reliance on imported breeding stock for pigs, developing high-quality local breeds like Sichuan fragrant pigs [6] Group 3: Financial Support and Performance - Financial institutions have continued to support New Hope during challenging times, with banks actively proposing to strengthen cooperation [2][7] - New Hope's revenue for 2024 is expected to be roughly flat compared to 2023, with a significant increase in profitability; projected net profit is between 450 million and 550 million yuan, representing an increase of 80.58% to 120.71% year-on-year [2][7] - The use of futures products, particularly in pig trading, is seen as a way to stabilize price fluctuations in the pig cycle, with New Hope participating cautiously [2][8]