"十五五"规划系列报告（九） 提升消费率: 亚洲经济体的得与失 2025 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 当前我国经济发展正迎来迈向中等发达水平的关键一跃，提升居民消费的重 要性日益凸显，"居民消费率明显提高"战略目标的提出恰逢其时。然而纵观全球 发展经验，欧美模式具有不同的储蓄文化、家庭观念和社会保障体系，相较之下， 与我们文化同源、发展路径相似的亚洲经济体，更值得深入探究。故此，与其远 眺欧美寻找"灵丹妙药"，不如近观亚洲主要经济体的实践经验。 ➢ 聚焦于亚洲各经济体的发展轨迹，揭示了一个深刻现象：经济发展水平未必 与消费发展速度相适配。正是基于这一"同源异流"的发现，我们可将亚洲经济 体按照人均 GDP 与消费率水平归纳为四种典型范式： ➢ 乐消费型（对应人均 GDP 偏高、消费率偏高的地区，如中国香港、日本）： 消费市场高度发达，消费结构优化，居民消费与经济发展水平相匹配。不过同是 "乐消费型"经济体，中国香港与日本的"解题思路"大相径庭—— [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taoch ...

Core Insights - The 20th China Economic Forum was held in Nansha, Guangzhou from November 17 to 18, focusing on "Chinese-style modernization and the outlook for the 14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The forum aims to summarize achievements and experiences from the 14th Five-Year Plan period and contribute ideas for decisive progress in the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Event Details - The forum included a thematic research session on November 17 and a main forum along with nine parallel forums on November 18 [1] - Notable topics for the parallel forums included "Mechanisms for Rule Alignment: Promoting Market Integration in the Greater Bay Area," "Strengthening Maritime Economy: New Perspectives," and "New Global Economic and Trade Landscape: Opportunities and Challenges for Going Global" [1] Organizational Background - The China Economic Forum is organized by the China Economic Weekly magazine and has been held since 2001, with a total of 19 previous sessions, gaining significant influence across political, business, and academic sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for China's modernization, focusing on restructuring economic growth logic, shifting from optimizing traditional industries to "extraordinary" technological breakthroughs, and emphasizing quality over quantity in strategic priorities [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Logic - The plan reflects a shift in industrial policy from enhancing traditional industries to prioritizing technological advancements, aiming to achieve the long-term goal of modernization by 2035 [6][10]. - The economic growth baseline is set to achieve a nominal GDP growth rate of around 4% annually from 2025 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 [9][10]. Group 2: Industrial Strategy - The strategy emphasizes the transformation of traditional industries as a priority, with a focus on upgrading sectors like mining, metallurgy, and chemicals to enhance global competitiveness [10][11]. - Four strategic emerging industries (new energy, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy) and six future industries (quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication) are outlined for development [10][11]. Group 3: Reform and Governance - The plan highlights fiscal and financial reforms as key measures to enhance macroeconomic governance, aiming to unlock growth potential through systemic reforms [12][13]. - Over 300 reform tasks are set to be completed by 2029, focusing on market-oriented reforms, nurturing new productive forces, and improving social welfare systems [13][14]. Group 4: Service Sector Development - The service sector is identified as having significant growth potential, with a consumption gap of nearly 3 trillion yuan compared to developed countries [12]. - Systematic solutions are proposed to stimulate consumption and investment, including increasing public service spending and enhancing the supply of quality consumer goods [12][13].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines China's development blueprint for the next five years, emphasizing the importance of understanding it to identify future investment opportunities [2][16]. Group 1: Emerging Industries and Investment Opportunities - The plan aims to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, potentially creating several trillion-level markets [7]. - The next decade could see the scale of new industries equivalent to recreating China's high-tech industry [7]. Group 2: Key Focus Areas for Technological Advancement - The plan emphasizes the need for breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and high-end instruments [8]. - It highlights the role of enterprises in driving technological innovation and supporting the growth of high-tech and technology-oriented SMEs [9]. Group 3: Domestic Market Development - The strategy includes measures to strengthen the domestic market and facilitate a smooth domestic circulation, focusing on expanding consumption and developing international consumer center cities [10][11]. - It calls for a shift from price competition to quality competition among enterprises to establish a healthy market order [11]. Group 4: National Security and Emerging Fields - The plan addresses the need to enhance security capabilities in traditional areas like food and energy, as well as emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology [12]. - This focus on security is expected to create new development opportunities in sectors like cybersecurity, national defense, and energy resources [12]. Group 5: Investment Themes in A-Share Market - Five key investment themes are identified: hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, new energy, and biomanufacturing [14]. - The plan aims to rectify disorderly competition, which may benefit leading companies in solar energy, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [14]. - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption in sectors like automotive, housing, and tourism, indicating potential growth in these areas [14]. - The implementation of major national strategies and the enhancement of security capabilities are expected to drive growth in industries like construction materials, machinery, new energy, and cybersecurity [14]. - The financial sector is also highlighted, with banks, securities, and insurance institutions currently valued at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of service consumption in China's economic development, highlighting the expected growth in service consumption quality and quantity over the next five years, driven by rising GDP and an expanding middle-income group [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's per capita GDP is projected to rise from $10,000 in 2019 to $13,300 in 2024, with per capita service consumption expected to reach 13,000 yuan by 2024 [1]. - Currently, service consumption accounts for approximately 52% of GDP in China, compared to 68.5% in the U.S., indicating significant room for growth [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The expansion of service consumption is primarily driven by the demand from a growing middle-income group, which is expected to exceed 800 million people in the next decade [2]. - However, the average daily working hours for employed individuals in China is projected to be 49 hours, which may limit the time available for service consumption, leading to a "crowding out effect" on leisure activities [2]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - There are multiple supply-side constraints affecting service consumption, including insufficient effective supply, a mismatch in supply and demand, and a lack of quality and standards in services [3]. - The integration of technology in traditional service sectors remains shallow, with significant gaps in areas such as telemedicine and smart elderly care [3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To enhance service consumption, it is recommended to improve overall income levels through employment promotion and social security reforms, as well as to stabilize asset prices and enhance social security systems [4]. - Policy innovation is needed to enrich high-quality service supply, including investment in cultural, tourism, and healthcare services, while also easing market access and breaking local protectionism [4]. Group 5: Standardization and Consumer Protection - There is a need for a systematic approach to developing service consumption standards, involving industry associations and leading enterprises to create a collaborative standard system [5]. - Establishing efficient dispute resolution mechanisms and consumer protection measures is crucial, particularly in high-risk service areas such as home services and education [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for the banking industry in China to adapt to profound changes in the economic and social environment, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strength, and high-quality development in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Industry Development - The total assets of China's banking financial institutions reached 474.3 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 [1]. - The banking sector is tasked with supporting China's modernization while pursuing its own high-quality development and structural transformation [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a strong focus on developing technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly finance, and digital finance [1]. Group 2: Financial Services and Innovation - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their service capabilities to support the construction of a modern industrial system and new productive forces [2]. - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China plans to refine its strategic planning and strengthen its risk management system [2]. - China Bank reported a technology loan balance of 4.7 trillion yuan, with over 83 billion yuan provided in comprehensive services [2]. Group 3: Competition and Regulatory Environment - The banking sector faces intensified competition from internet technology companies and internal industry rivalry [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" calls for optimizing the financial institution system and promoting differentiated development to avoid homogenized competition [3]. - Regulatory authorities will guide banks to adopt differentiated development paths based on their resources and market positioning [3]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments for Small and Medium Banks - Small and medium-sized banks are advised to adjust their strategic direction to embrace new economies and serve new driving forces [4]. - These banks should focus on strategic emerging industries and enhance their risk management capabilities [4]. Group 5: Strengthening Financial Regulation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes comprehensive financial regulation and the establishment of a risk prevention and resolution system [5]. - Regulatory efforts will focus on proactive warning, comprehensive coverage, and precise measures to maintain financial stability [5]. - The rise of artificial intelligence is expected to enhance early identification and management of financial risks [5]. Group 6: Legal and Regulatory Framework - Financial legal construction is deemed essential for the development of the banking industry [6]. - Regulatory frameworks need to adapt to the rapid development of financial technology and the complexities of financial products [6].

11月17日，中国共产党北京市第十三届委员会第七次全体会议召开。全会认真学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，审议通过了《中共北京市委关于制定北京 市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。市委常委会主持会议。市委书记尹力就《建议（讨论稿）》向全会作说明并讲话。 全会指出，"十四五"时期是极不平凡的五年，在党中央坚强领导下，市委带领全市人民坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻习近平 总书记对北京重要讲话精神，团结奋斗、锐意进取，经受住世纪疫情冲击，有效应对一系列风险挑战，推动各项事业取得重大成就。"四个中心"功能不断增 强，"四个服务"水平大幅提高，成功举办北京2022年冬奥会冬残奥会、成为全球唯一的"双奥之城"，圆满完成一系列重大活动服务保障，大国首都风范充分 展现；京津冀协同发展走深走实，完成市级行政机关搬迁至北京城市副中心，助力雄安新区建设取得显著进展；科技创新引领作用更加凸显，改革开放不断 激发活力，经济发展迈上新台阶；北京中轴线申遗成功、首都文化蓬勃发展，绿色底色更加鲜明靓丽，超大城市治理现代化水平持续提高，民生改善更加可 感可及，安全保障水平进一步提升，民主法治建设稳步推进；全面从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent policy developments aimed at stabilizing private investment in China, highlighting measures to enhance the business environment and support for private enterprises in various sectors [2][3][10]. Group 1: Policy Developments - On November 10, the State Council issued measures to promote private investment, including easing restrictions for private enterprises in monopolistic sectors such as energy and railways, and encouraging participation in low-altitude economic infrastructure [2][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for various industries is being developed, with a focus on smart connected vehicles and new battery industries, as mentioned during the World Power Battery Conference held in Sichuan [2][11]. - The government is emphasizing the importance of enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand to stimulate consumption and economic circulation, as discussed in a State Council meeting on November 14 [3][7]. Group 2: Financial and Investment Strategies - The finance minister stated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, fiscal policy will maintain an active orientation, adjusting deficit rates and debt levels based on economic conditions, and utilizing various financial tools to support spending [3][13]. - The government aims to increase the proportion of government procurement reserved for small and medium-sized enterprises to over 40% for projects exceeding 4 million yuan, promoting fair competition [9][10]. - There is a push for private capital to engage in significant investment projects, with the government providing support through new policy financial tools and encouraging the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) for eligible projects [10][12]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Initiatives - The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing a "14th Five-Year" plan for modern seed industry enhancement, focusing on revitalizing the seed industry [2][11]. - The government is promoting the development of a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system by 2030, aiming for a new power system adaptable to high proportions of renewable energy by 2035 [11]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on a development plan for smart connected vehicles and new battery industries, emphasizing strategic leadership and application expansion [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption through various new proposals [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - The reasonable growth range for China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the current economic scale and potential growth rate [2][3]. - The plan highlights the need for a flexible approach to economic growth, with a lower limit to ensure employment and a higher limit to prevent inflation and promote structural adjustments [3]. Group 2: Enhancing Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, solutions should be sought from both the income and supply sides, including expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending [3][4]. - Three key actions are necessary to enhance resident consumption: increasing the share of new consumption types, enriching consumption scenarios, and ensuring the implementation of national policies to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 3: Real Estate and Automotive Markets - The plan proposes removing unreasonable restrictions on automotive and housing consumption, as both sectors have significant economic impacts and can stimulate related industries [5][6]. - The real estate market is expected to see slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7]. Group 4: Role of Consumption, Investment, and Exports - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that its contribution to GDP growth will exceed 60% [12][13]. - Investment will shift focus from total volume to structural optimization, supporting high-quality development in sectors like high-end manufacturing and technology [13]. - Exports will serve as a stabilizer, maintaining their importance due to China's comprehensive industrial system, despite potential fluctuations [12][14]. Group 5: Service Industry and Market Opening - The emphasis on expanding the service industry as a key area for market opening indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing service sector competitiveness and internationalization [20][21]. - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and management practices to meet consumer demands [21].

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for financial institutions to enhance their services to support the high-quality development of the real economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Financial Institutions' Role - Financial institutions are urged to improve the precision, adaptability, and accessibility of their services, focusing on key areas and weak links in the real economy [2] - Regional banks should adjust their credit and customer strategies towards intelligent, green, and integrated directions, accelerating digital transformation to create competitive advantages [2] - The futures and securities industries are presented with development opportunities, with the futures sector encouraged to implement scenario-based services to enhance price discovery and risk management [2] Group 2: Risk Management - Financial institutions must maintain a risk baseline while serving the real economy, employing early identification and warning systems for risk management [3] - City commercial banks should respect risks but not fear development, balancing risk and return through technology empowerment and compliance culture [3] - The futures industry should establish integrated risk warning mechanisms to preemptively address systemic risks [3] Group 3: Innovative Financial Products and Services - The "five major articles" of financial work emphasize technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance as core strategies for financial institutions [4] - Construction Bank has developed a comprehensive technology finance service system, including products that cater to different growth stages of enterprises [4] - Regional banks are launching tailored products to address local needs, such as order financing and pollution rights pledge loans, to support small and micro enterprises [4][5] Group 4: Industry Empowerment - Financial institutions are transitioning from traditional credit providers to industry enablers, particularly in the context of the Xiong'an New Area's development [4] - Supply chain financial products are being utilized to extend services to upstream and downstream SMEs, integrating various financial services [5] - Futures and securities firms are playing a crucial role in managing risks within the industrial chain, responding to the increasing demand for risk management from enterprises [6]