宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a combination of factors, including a softening stance from the US on tariff negotiations and proactive macroeconomic policies from China aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On May 6, the onshore RMB rose significantly against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.2105, the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - During the May Day holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9%, with notable increases of over 650 points on May 2 and again on May 5, peaking at 7.19 [1]. - The RMB's overall stability amidst global market fluctuations caused by US tariff policies indicates a resilient exchange rate [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to the US's willingness to engage in tariff negotiations, as indicated by statements from US officials, which has positively influenced the RMB's value [2]. - The Chinese government's commitment to implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, as discussed in the April 25 Politburo meeting, aims to stabilize employment and market expectations, further supporting the RMB [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade talks and the performance of the US dollar [4]. - The potential for a more flexible US stance on tariffs may reduce downward pressure on the RMB, suggesting that the most significant depreciation risks may have passed [4]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern against the dollar, with relatively smaller volatility compared to other major currencies [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals Supporting RMB Stability - The foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is strong, supported by positive domestic economic indicators and China's institutional advantages, including a large market and effective governance mechanisms [5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB [5].

数据截至5月6日19:53，图 / Wind 人民币汇率的强劲升值势头也提升了资本市场的活力。5月6日，A股呈现普涨格局，三大指数 均涨超1%，近5 0 0 0股飘红，两市成交额重返1 . 3万亿之上。 | 图 / Wind | | --- | 作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨包芳鸣 图源丨图虫 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 离 岸 人 民 币 汇 率 自 5 月 1 日 收 于 7 . 2 7 7 3 后 连 续 走 强 ， 截 至 5 月 5 日 收 盘 已 升 至 7 . 2 0 0 6，当日盘中更是一度触及7 . 1 8 4 3的高点。"五一"期间，离岸人民币汇率一度升超8 0 0 点。 5月6日，人民币大幅拉升， 在岸人民币对美元日内一度涨近6 0 0点，创去年11月以来最高水 平， 收盘报7 . 2 1 6 9，日内上涨4 6 3点。离岸人民币汇率小幅回落，仍维持在7 . 2 0左右。在岸 人民币汇率自4月2 8日开始持续升值。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，4月2 5日中共中央政治局会议做出明确部署，要求"加强 超 常 规 逆 周 期 调 节 " " 要 加 紧 实 施 更 加 积 极 有 为 的 ...

近几日，人民币汇率表现亮眼。5月6日，人民币对美元中间价报7.2，较前一交易日上调6个基点。5月5 日，人民币对美元汇率依然走高。离岸人民币盘中一度升穿7.2关口，为去年11月以来首次，创近半年 以来新高。专家分析，近期人民币暴涨主要有两方面原因。第一是美方在关税问题上的态度有了变化； 第二是国内稳经济政策提供了关键支撑。未来汇率会怎么走？东方金诚研究发展部王青认为，主要有两 大关键：一是中美谈判进展；二是美元走势。未来人民币更可能出现一个与美元走势相反的双向波动过 程。不过别担心，这种波动幅度相对较小。而且相对于其它主要货币来说，人民币则要稳定得多。(国 是直通车) ...

5月5日，是"五一"长假最后一天，离岸人民币对美元汇率日内涨幅超100点，盘中最高触及7.1864，创 下2024年12月以来新高。近期人民币暴涨有何利好因素驱动？ 央广网北京5月6日消息（记者唐婧）据中央广播电视总台经济之声报道，上周五（5月2日），离岸人民 币对美元汇率开始上涨，暴涨近1%。本周一（5日）上涨继续，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.20元关 口，创下2024年12月以来新高。人民币汇率近期大涨的原因是什么？未来走势如何？ 特别值得注意的是，在人民币汇率走高的同时，近期美元汇率却在走低。5月5日，美元指数快速跳水， 并再度跌破100大关，最低下探至99.6258，创近三个月新低。 田利辉说，可以看出，市场对我国经济复苏的预期和信心在不断提升，而对美元和美元信用体系的信任 在松动。 "中长期来看，全球资本对于中美利差的收窄、利息率的变化，对于美元的信任的问题，美元信用体系 的松动，对于这样的预期在不断强化，这也就会带来全球资本资产配置在不断的向人民币资产倾斜，从 而推动我人民币汇率的走高，美元汇率的走低。"田利辉说。 王青认为，未来人民币可能出现与美元走势相反的双向波动过程，但波幅会相对较小。相对于 ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of April 30, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.20, down 0.09% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.09, down 0.16%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 90.44, down 0.03% [1][2] RMB Performance - On April 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.2633 against the USD, appreciating by 199 basis points or 0.27% for the week; the offshore RMB closed at 7.2113, appreciating by 776 basis points or 1.06% for the week [5] - The appreciation of the RMB reflects increased market demand and the impact of USD index fluctuations, as the weakening US economic recovery reduces the dollar's attractiveness [5] Economic Indicators - In April, the onshore RMB depreciated approximately 0.2%, while the CFETS index fell about 2.8%, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 0.32% [5] - The RMB's future performance is expected to be influenced by the direction of the USD index and trade policies, with a moderate strengthening outlook [6] Trade Relations - Recent responses from the Ministry of Commerce regarding Sino-US trade dialogue suggest a softening stance from the US on tariffs, which has contributed to the recent strength of the offshore RMB [6] - The upcoming RMB exchange rate movements will depend on the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the USD's performance, with potential for volatility [6] Consumer Market Trends - During the "May Day" holiday, key retail and catering enterprises reported a 6.3% year-on-year increase in sales, with significant growth in sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment [7] - The transportation sector saw a cumulative flow of 1.467 billion people during the holiday period, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [7] Automotive Industry - New energy vehicle manufacturers reported significant growth in April deliveries, with NIO delivering 23,900 vehicles (up 53%), XPeng 35,045 vehicles (up 273%), and Li Auto 33,939 vehicles (up 31.6%) [9] Economic Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, including the establishment of a childcare subsidy system and support for service consumption and the elderly care industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance during the May Day holiday, with a cumulative increase of 687 basis points to 7.2011 against the USD, indicating a potential upward adjustment for the onshore RMB post-holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Performance - Four main reasons are identified for the recent strength of the offshore RMB: 1. Record high travel data during the May Day holiday may inject more economic growth momentum 2. Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations during the holiday 3. Increased allocation of risk-averse funds into RMB assets 4. A declining trend in the USD index, leading to a gradual release of settlement demand [4][5]. Group 2: Sino-U.S. Trade Negotiations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, suggesting a softening stance that could facilitate trade dialogue and address high tariffs, contributing to the RMB's recent strength [4][5]. - Analysts expect that the RMB's future performance will largely depend on the progress of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the movement of the USD [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB market experienced lower trading activity during the holiday, which may have amplified the rise in the RMB due to short-covering by overseas institutions [4]. - The overall sentiment in the foreign exchange market has improved due to favorable news from Sino-U.S. negotiations, leading to a potential decrease in tariff pressure on the RMB [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Currency Trends - Other Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have also appreciated against the USD, indicating a regional trend of currency strengthening [7][8]. - Market expectations suggest that the USD may continue to weaken, influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade dynamics [9].

2025年5月6日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2008，下调（人民币升值）6点； 欧元/人民币报8.1535，下调715点； 港元/人民币报0.92903，上调9点； 英镑/人民币报9.5808，下调1059点； 澳元/人民币报4.6617，上调440点； 加元/人民币报5.2202，下调96点； 100日元/人民币报5.0269，下调603点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1706，下调1127点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3034，上调38点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58306，下调153.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7664，上调24点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5872，上调653点。 ...

Group 1: Trade Relations and Currency Impact - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of initiating trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous statements [2][3] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved China-U.S. relations [3] - There is a potential for concentrated settlement of foreign exchange by Chinese exporters, which could further support RMB appreciation [3] Group 2: Tourism and Consumer Behavior - During the May Day holiday, the number of travelers reached a new high, with an average of 305 million people per day, reflecting a 5.8% increase year-on-year [4] - Despite high travel volumes, there is a trend of "quantity over price," with some regions experiencing slight declines in tourism spending [5] - Significant growth was observed in inbound tourism, county tourism, and long-distance travel, with inbound orders increasing by 130% year-on-year [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - The April manufacturing PMI in China showed a decline, indicating external demand pressures are greater than internal demand [6] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, primarily due to net export drag, while non-farm data remained stable, alleviating recession concerns [6] - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's May meeting and China's April import and export data [6]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has appreciated, breaking the 7.19 mark for the first time since November last year, driven by multiple factors including the US-China trade dialogue and strong consumption during the May Day holiday [1][2] - On May 2, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate saw a significant increase, with a single-day rise exceeding 600 basis points, and on May 5, it continued to rise, touching 7.18940 with an intraday increase of over 130 basis points [2] - Analysts attribute the RMB appreciation to several factors, including positive signals from the US regarding tariff negotiations, strong domestic consumption during the holiday, and increased foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds amid heightened global market volatility [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable with a solid foundation, fluctuating around a reasonable equilibrium level [3] - The domestic economic fundamentals have improved since late last year, with factors such as economic recovery, confidence boosting, risk mitigation, and technological empowerment contributing to the stability of the RMB [3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to enhance market resilience and stabilize expectations while preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3]