Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on innovation, efficient collaboration, and industrial upgrades [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have introduced 16 measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, covering the entire chain from research and development to payment systems [2] - Shanghai has established a second phase fund for industrial transformation and upgrading with a total scale of 50 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing financial support for strategic emerging industries [3] Group 2 - Shanghai is implementing joint support policies for key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, large aircraft, and marine vessels, encouraging strong collaboration among quality enterprises [4] - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo will take place from July 16 to 20, showcasing products that have successfully cleared customs, including high-performance industrial switches and integrated circuit modules [5] - The latest survey on the digital transformation of brokerage firms focuses on the internet brokerage business and sales amounts, indicating a shift in regulatory oversight [6][7] Group 3 - IDC reports that the GenAI IaaS market in China is expected to reach 8.74 billion yuan in the second half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 165%, highlighting the growth of AI infrastructure [8] - The total scale of ETFs in China reached a historic high of 4.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with stock ETFs accounting for over 70% of this total [9] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is working on collaboration between basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance, focusing on data sharing and synchronized settlements [10] Group 4 - Bond ETFs have reached a new high of 383.98 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 175.78 billion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating strong investor interest in this asset class [11]

Group 1: Core Concepts - The article emphasizes the "Two Highs and Four Focuses" as a guiding principle for Henan's development, aiming for high-quality growth and modernization [1] - The ten key areas of focus include integration into the national market, education and talent development, industrial transformation, rural revitalization, urbanization, cultural tourism, public welfare, ecological protection, grassroots governance, and risk prevention [1] Group 2: National Market Integration - The strategy involves implementing "Five Unifications and One Openness" to create a unified national market, enhancing logistics and regulatory frameworks [2] - Key tasks include improving infrastructure connectivity, establishing a unified market for goods and services, and promoting regional cooperation [2] Group 3: Education and Talent Development - The focus is on comprehensive educational reform, enhancing resource allocation, and promoting industry-education integration [3][4] - The aim is to create a distinctive educational reform system in Henan, emphasizing fairness and quality in education [3] Group 4: Industrial Transformation - The strategy targets both traditional industry upgrades and the cultivation of emerging industries through technological empowerment and cluster development [5] - Emphasis is placed on optimizing industrial layout and promoting green transformation in manufacturing sectors [5] Group 5: Rural Revitalization - The plan includes ensuring food security, enhancing agricultural productivity, and improving rural infrastructure and public services [6] - It aims to integrate agriculture with other industries to increase value and support rural economic development [6] Group 6: Urbanization - The focus is on the urbanization of agricultural populations and the development of county-level cities, with an emphasis on infrastructure and public services [7][8] - Strategies include improving digital infrastructure and enhancing educational and healthcare services in rural areas [8] Group 7: Cultural Tourism - The goal is to develop the cultural tourism industry into a pillar of the economy by enhancing planning, branding, and infrastructure [9] - The strategy includes leveraging cultural heritage and integrating tourism with other sectors [9] Group 8: Public Welfare - The article highlights the importance of improving public services, including employment, education, healthcare, and social security [10][11] - It emphasizes the need for a stable increase in educational funding and the expansion of quality medical services [10] Group 9: Ecological Protection - The focus is on implementing ecological protection measures and pollution prevention strategies to ensure sustainable development [12] - The plan includes enhancing water resource management and promoting green industry practices [12] Group 10: Governance and Risk Prevention - The strategy aims to enhance grassroots governance through improved organizational structures and data integration [13] - It emphasizes the importance of risk prevention in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [14][15]

Domestic News - The Central Financial Committee, chaired by Xi Jinping, emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy, while also addressing issues of low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and encouraging the exit of backward production capacity [1] - Domestic refined oil prices have been raised, resulting in an additional cost of 9 yuan for a full tank of gas [2] - The Caixin China PMI for June recorded a value of 50.4, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from May [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority purchased 20.018 billion HKD in the market due to the Hong Kong dollar hitting the weak side of the peg [4] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced sanctions against former Philippine senator Torentino, prohibiting his entry into mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau [5] International News - U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9, with India looking to finalize a temporary trade agreement this week [1] - Trump stated he does not consider extending the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations and expressed doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan, which may face tariffs of 30% or 35% [2] - The U.S. will prioritize trade negotiations with India over Japan [3] - The Trump administration has officially closed the U.S. International Development Agency [4] - The Thai Constitutional Court has decided to suspend Prayuth Chan-o-cha from exercising his duties as Prime Minister [5] - U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to the highest level since November last year [6] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated it is too early to assert whether a rate cut in July is premature, leaving all options open [7] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, with the House expected to vote on it this week [8] - Trump expressed disinterest in owning electric vehicles due to safety concerns and threatened to "consider expelling" Elon Musk [9] - Trump threatened to scrutinize Musk and his companies regarding subsidies, to which Musk responded by suggesting to cut all subsidies immediately [10]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 131 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan for the day [1] - After the month-end, the overnight pledged repo rate for deposit institutions significantly decreased by over 14 basis points, returning to 1.36%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate fell by over 37 basis points [3] - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CD) transaction rate for major banks is at 1.62%, showing a decline compared to the previous day [6] Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.28%, the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.10%, and the 5-year main contract up by 0.06%, while the 2-year main contract slightly decreased by 0.01% [12] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 20 billion yuan of 28-day and 20 billion yuan of 63-day discount treasury bonds on July 2 [16] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June recorded 50.4, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from May, indicating a return above the critical point, with new export orders rebounding significantly [13]

Group 1 - The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to discuss the deepening of the national unified market construction and high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the need for legal governance of low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and the promotion of integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [2] - The US Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will be sent to the House of Representatives, with President Trump expressing confidence in its passage [2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for June recorded 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, indicating a return to expansion territory [3] Group 2 - The China Light Industry Federation reported that the added value of large-scale light industry increased by 7% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, with total operating income reaching 9.27 trillion yuan [3] - Internet enterprises above designated size achieved internet business revenue of 773.5 billion yuan from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profit decreased by 2.2% [3] - The Ministry of Water Resources announced the start of the main flood season in China from July 1, with forecasts indicating above-normal rainfall in several river basins [3] Group 3 - A-share indices showed divergence, with bank stocks rebounding and the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.39% at 3457.75 points [6] - The IPO acceptance reached a peak in the first half of the year, with 150 companies accepted for IPO in June alone, marking a record for the year [6] - UBS's China equity strategy analyst noted that A-share earnings may gradually recover this year under stable macro conditions [7] Group 4 - Major announcements from listed companies included BYD reporting approximately 2.146 million new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 33.04% [9] - The National Medical Insurance Administration is seeking opinions on the adjustment of the medical insurance drug list for 2025, which will include innovative drugs not covered by basic insurance [11] - The real estate investment by the top 100 property companies increased by 42% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in investment enthusiasm [11] Group 5 - The domestic retail price of refined oil has seen three consecutive increases, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively [10] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached 90,035 units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [12] - The global economic outlook report from the Bank of China Research Institute highlighted that over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, indicating their role as a digital currency [13]

Group 1 - BYD Company reported June sales of new energy vehicles at 382,600 units, an increase from 341,700 units in the same month last year, reflecting a growth of approximately 12.5% year-over-year [2] Group 2 - The U.S. JOLTs job openings unexpectedly rose to the highest level since November of the previous year, leading traders to slightly reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [3] - Oil prices are set to increase, with the cost of filling a tank expected to rise by 9 yuan [4] - The first company, He Yuan Biotechnology, has passed the review for an IPO under the fifth set of standards on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [4]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordination and cooperation to achieve these goals [1] - The meeting underscored that advancing Chinese-style modernization requires a focus on the marine economy, aiming to establish a path with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 2 - In June, new car manufacturers reported significant sales figures, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 vehicles, marking a historical high and securing the top position among new forces in car manufacturing [2] - Leap Motor also achieved a record high in new car deliveries for June, reaching 48,006 units, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors followed closely [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' financial capacity to stimulate consumption [3] - Analysts noted that rising stock markets can enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, as increased asset values create a psychological effect of wealth growth [3] Group 4 - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds by 2025, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, accounting for 42.69% of the annual quota [4] - The issuance plan for the second half of the year has been adjusted to be more intensive, with the first issuance scheduled for July 14 [4] Group 5 - In July, several Hong Kong stocks were favored by brokerages, with companies like Pop Mart, Hong Kong Exchanges, and others receiving multiple recommendations from different firms [5] - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for institutional investors, especially with the upcoming mid-year report season [5] Group 6 - The banking sector has seen a continuous rise, with 36 listed banks in A-shares increasing by over 1%, and Suzhou Bank and Xiamen Bank showing notable gains [8] - Analysts attribute this upward trend to recent shareholder meetings focusing on dividends and strategic transformations, laying a foundation for future stock price increases [8] Group 7 - The international copper price surged, reaching a peak of $9,984, driven by market confidence stemming from the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. and inflation expectations [15] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, predicting a peak of $10,050 in August [15] Group 8 - BYD reported a 33.04% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for the first half of the year, totaling approximately 2.146 million units [21] - New and existing companies are expected to see significant profit growth, with projections indicating increases of 50%-100% for several firms in the upcoming half-year [21]

证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 大类资产跟踪 债券市场：利率债涨跌不一，短端几乎持平，长端上涨。股市方面上 证指数放量突破颈线压制，且呈均线排列结构，虽然基本面的疲弱仍将支 撑债市，但股市若继续走强仍将压制债市表现，预计债市后续将高位震荡 运行。后续展望：股市大盘突破，债市预计高位震荡。 2025 年 07 月 01 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.07.01）：指数分化 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.06.30）：创业板指 领涨>>--2025-07-01 A 股：三大指数分化，沪指领涨，创新药概念爆发。市场全天成交额 1.49 万亿，较前一日缩量 0.02 万亿，个股涨跌分化，2514 只个股上涨， 2394 只个股下跌。沪指技术面上指数突破了 3 月份的高点，上涨空间已 经打开。有三个观察点来判断行情的强弱支撑是否有效：一是前期油价的 高点也是地缘风险消退和指数止稳的起点，因此 6 月 23 日上涨的低 ...

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy during the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee [2] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, requiring coordinated efforts to implement the Party Central Committee's deployment [2] - The development of the marine economy must follow a path with Chinese characteristics, contributing to China's modernization [2] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the added value of China's above-scale light industry increased by 7.0% year-on-year in the first five months of this year, continuing a positive recovery trend [11] - The total operating income of the light industry reached 9.27 trillion yuan during the same period, indicating steady production growth [11] Group 3 - The new revised Mineral Resources Law officially came into effect, emphasizing special protection for mineral resources critical to national economic security and strategic emerging industries [19] - The law also highlights the importance of balancing resource development and environmental protection, and stresses the market-oriented allocation of resources [19]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 - Report Type: Coal and Coke Daily Report - Industry: Black Metal (Coal and Coke) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On July 1, the coke main contract closed at 1,388.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.46%. After the end of the national safety production month in June, the safety supervision pressure in the main coking coal producing areas gradually eased, and coking coal production may increase, causing the coke price to decline slightly. The latest sample independent coking enterprises had a loss of 46 yuan/ton per ton of coke, and the operating pressure of coking plants increased. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 242.29 tons, with a slight weekly increase. Recently, coke may maintain a wide - range volatile operation [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 1, the coking coal main contract closed at 814.5 points, with an intraday decline of 3.32%. Mines in Changzhi Qinyuan that were shut down due to safety supervision have resumed production, and supply concerns have resurfaced. The demand for coking coal is stable, but the supply side is disturbed, and the futures price has adjusted downward. It is expected that the coking coal main contract will maintain a range - bound volatile operation in the short term [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Policy News**: On July 1, Xi Jinping presided over the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, discussing the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [8]. - **Price News**: On July 1, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 930 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port increased by 1.75% week - on - week to 1,160 yuan/ton, while the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,220 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the same period last year, the prices at both ports decreased significantly [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained unchanged at 865 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port increased by 1.68% week - on - week to 1,210 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi - produced coking coal remained stable at 1,250 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, all prices decreased [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The main contract closed at 1,388.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.46%. The trading volume was 26,109, and the open interest was 49,566, with a decrease of 1,264 compared to the previous trading day [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 814.5 points, with a decline of 3.32%. The trading volume was 1,071,392, and the open interest was 564,422, with a decrease of 1,806 compared to the previous trading day [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Inventory Charts**: Include charts of coke inventory (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mills, ports, etc.) and coking coal inventory (mines, ports, 247 sample steel mills, etc.) from 2019 - 2025 [14][19][22]. - **Production and Operation Charts**: Include charts of domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, coking plant operation, etc. [26][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: Due to the possible increase in coking coal production after the end of the safety production month, the cost - side supply is disturbed, and coke may maintain a wide - range volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the actual coking coal production [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply side is disturbed, and the futures price has adjusted downward. It is expected to maintain a range - bound volatile operation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the coal production in Shanxi in July [6][34].