Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the three major RMB exchange rate indices indicates a weakening of the Chinese yuan against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS index hitting its lowest level since December 2020 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is reported at 95.36, down 0.56% week-on-week, marking a low not seen since December 2020 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index stands at 100.73, down 0.78% week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index is at 90.21, down 0.54% week-on-week, the lowest since August 2020 [1][2]. Market Context - The geopolitical situation and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have contributed to a decline in the US dollar, which fell 1.52% last week to 97.26, its lowest in nearly three years [5]. - Non-USD currencies saw gains, with the Swiss franc rising 2.35%, the British pound up 1.97%, and the euro increasing by 1.7% [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1711, down 126 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1729, down 65 basis points, a decline of 0.09% [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of the RMB is closely tied to the outlook for the US dollar, with a clear direction for gradual appreciation of the RMB in the medium to long term [6]. - Li Liuyang, Chief Analyst at CICC, indicates that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment, supported by stable exchange rate policies [5][6]. Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the previous four months [7]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May, total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 328,062.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while total profits were 16,514.5 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows mixed signals with some indicators stable and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, while PPI continued to decline, and industrial enterprise profits were under pressure. Fiscal policy is expected to play a more active role in the second half of the year, and the bond market is generally optimistic in July. The stock market presents structural opportunities, especially in certain sectors like innovation drugs and AI - related areas [2][14][22][33] - Global trade is affected by the US "equivalent tariff" policy, which has drawn strong opposition from China. International geopolitical events also impact commodity markets, such as the situation in the Middle East affecting the oil market, and Canada's digital service tax on US tech companies causing trade frictions [3][15] - The gold market has long - term upward potential but is subject to significant short - term volatility due to Trump's unpredictable policies. The copper market has seen shortages outside the US due to import investigations, and the lithium market continues its downward trend [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from April. Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators showed different trends, and industrial enterprise profits in January - May decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [1] - The trade balance in May showed exports growing by 4.8% year - on - year and imports declining by 3.4% year - on - year. The CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China will release June PMI data on June 30. The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing policies in the second half of the year, and incremental policies may be introduced. The US "equivalent tariff" policy has been strongly opposed by China, and domestic refined oil prices may rise on July 1 [2][3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year - on - year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations. Personal consumption and income declined, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice this year, with the first cut possibly in September [4] Metals - In May, the upstream physical gold demand weakened seasonally, and the gold出库 volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 35% month - on - month. Gold prices have been oscillating at a high level recently, and there is long - term upward potential. The copper market outside the US is facing shortages, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has fallen below 60,000 yuan/ton [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada imposed a 50% tariff on steel imports from non - free - trade - agreement countries. The iron ore market may face negative feedback in the future due to factors such as the end of export rush and unstable domestic demand [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's first national - level continental shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang reached a record high daily output. The Haifa refinery in Israel has partially resumed production. The ICE Brent crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions, and OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July [10] Agricultural Products - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions of Japan. Argentine exporters have declared 6.1 million metric tons of soybeans and their derivatives for external sales in June [11] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan. This week, 2.0275 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature [13] Key News - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested strengthening policy regulation. The fiscal policy will focus on implementing existing policies and may introduce incremental policies. The Sino - US trade teams are in close communication, and China will approve eligible export applications, while the US will cancel some restrictive measures [14] - From January to May, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The total revenue of state - owned enterprises was 32.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the total profit was 1.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [16] - The bond market is generally positive, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining. The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and falling, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1690 on June 30, down 6.0 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% in New York trading [26] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a low - volatility state in the short term. The current active equity products are over - allocated in stocks and under - allocated in bonds, and future products may increase the allocation of equity assets with similar bond attributes [27] - Huatai Macro points out that the impact of tariffs on industrial enterprise profits is emerging, and there is still great uncertainty in tariff policies after July 9. Guosheng Fixed Income suggests maintaining a long - term position in bonds and seizing the bull market after the end of the quarter [28][29] Today's Reminders - On June 30, 241 bonds will be listed, 38 bonds will be issued, 67 bonds will make payments, and 617 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - Starting from June 30, the share transaction fee in the Hong Kong market will be adjusted from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, which is beneficial for reducing small - scale transaction costs and optimizing institutional investors' trading strategies [31] - In the first half of this year, hot topics such as innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and the Beijing Stock Exchange drove the market. The performance of funds investing in innovative drugs was outstanding, while AI - themed funds had poor performance. The Hong Kong stock market's financing was booming, and the A - share market showed an upward trend last week [32][33] - Some institutions believe that the stock market will present structural opportunities during the interim report season. AI and military industries are expected to be the focus of structural opportunities in the third quarter, and new consumption and innovative drugs may rebound after June 30 [33][34]

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currencies has shown fluctuations, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market as of June 30, 2025 [1] Currency Exchange Rate Summary - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1586, reflecting a depreciation of 41 points for the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.4024, showing an appreciation of 256 points for the RMB [1] - The HKD/RMB rate stands at 0.91195, with a decrease of 5.5 points for the RMB [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is recorded at 9.8300, indicating a decline of 45 points for the RMB [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6817, down by 104 points for the RMB [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is reported at 5.2358, reflecting a decrease of 161 points for the RMB [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9594, with an increase of 12 points for the RMB [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is reported at 10.9558, showing a decline of 228 points for the RMB [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3475, indicating an appreciation of 30 points for the RMB [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.58996, with a slight increase of 0.1 points for the RMB [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is reported at 8.9721, reflecting an appreciation of 274 points for the RMB [1] - The SGD/RMB rate stands at 5.6179, showing a decrease of 22 points for the RMB [1]

不过，业界普遍认为，下半年仍有降准降息的可能和空间。银河证券研报分析，将"择机降准降息"转变 为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，不代表三季度不会降准降息。降息方面，当前的实际利率依然显 著高于自然利率，仍需进一步调降，预计下半年还会有1次至2次降息，总计调降政策利率20个基点至30 个基点。降准方面，预计下半年降准幅度达到50个基点。 王青预计，下半年央行还会继续降准降息，其中降息幅度可能达到30个基点，降准幅度有可能达到50个 基点，这将引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下调，降低实体经济融资成本，激发内生性融资需求。 日前，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第二季度例会。会议提出，要实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保 持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 对于下阶段货币政策的主要思路，2025年第二季度例会建议加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控 前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和 节奏。 灵活把握货币政策节奏 在货币政策基调上，2025年第二季度例会延续了"适度宽松 ...

2025.06. 28 本文字数：1837，阅读时长大约3分钟 例会公报重申，要实施适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重 功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 这意味着，尽管上半年经济稳中向好，但在外部环境复杂、国内有效需求不足、房地产市场持续调整 的背景下，货币政策"适度宽松"的主基调未变，央行仍将维持支持性政策立场。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，二季度例会未直接提及"适时降准降息"，一方面是因为5月已有 降准降息落地，当前处于政策观察期；另一方面，上半年经济表现偏强，短期内再次实施降准降息的 紧迫性有所降低。 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 6月27日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会内容公布，传递出下半年货币政策与汇 率调控的重要信号。面对复杂的国内外经济形势，本次例会在经济形势判断、政策思路及汇率政策表 述上均有微调，引发市场广泛关注。 在经济形势研判上，例会对国内国外挑战的表述更加细化。对内，再度强调"内需不足"，并着重指 出"物价持续低位运行"；对外，明确"当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻""贸易壁垒增多" ，凸显外部压力 的增 ...

在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1690，较上一交易日下跌6点。 ...

6月27日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 716.27人民币 100欧元 837.68人民币 新华社北京6月27日电 中国外汇交易中心6月27日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 100日元 4.9582人民币 100加元 525.19人民币 100港元 91.25人民币 100英镑 983.45人民币 100澳元 469.21人民币 100新西兰元 434.45人民币 100新加坡元 562.01人民币 100瑞士法郎 894.47人民币 100人民币 112.88澳门元 100人民币 58.995马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1097.86俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 249.25南非兰特 100人民币 18924韩元 100人民币 51.264阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.355沙特里亚尔 100人民币 4771.73匈牙利福林 100人民币 50.617波兰兹罗提 100人民币 89.07丹麦克朗 100人民币 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with expectations of continued low volatility in the short term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years, dropping below the 97 mark for the first time since March 2022, while the euro has reached its highest level against the dollar since September 2021 [2]. - The RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 7.16 mark, marking a new high since mid-November of the previous year [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the US dollar index has declined by approximately 10%, while the onshore RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.8% and the offshore RMB by over 2.3% [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The expectation of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is bolstered by recent economic data, including a 0.5% decline in the annualized real GDP for Q1, which is the first contraction in three years [2]. - The Chinese economy has shown stability, with steady growth in industrial output and retail sales, contributing to the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent performance of the Chinese capital market has led to increased cross-border capital inflows, further supporting the RMB [5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated plans to introduce more financial policies related to foreign exchange, aiming to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market and safeguard economic and financial security [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between the US dollar and US equities is influenced by multiple factors, including growth differentials and monetary policy, rather than being linear [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides the mid-exchange rates of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against various currencies as of June 27, 2025, indicating fluctuations in the currency values. Exchange Rate Summary - USD/CNY is reported at 7.1627, an increase (devaluation of CNY) by 7 points [1] - EUR/CNY is reported at 8.3768, an increase by 162 points [1] - HKD/CNY is reported at 0.9125, a decrease by 0.4 points [1] - GBP/CNY is reported at 9.8345, an increase by 388 points [1] - AUD/CNY is reported at 4.6921, an increase by 252 points [1] - CAD/CNY is reported at 5.2519, an increase by 321 points [1] - 100 JPY/CNY is reported at 4.9582, an increase by 194 points [1] - CNY/RUB is reported at 10.9786, an increase by 571 points [1] - NZD/CNY is reported at 4.3445, an increase by 135 points [1] - CNY/MYR is reported at 0.58995, a decrease by 12.1 points [1] - CHF/CNY is reported at 8.9447, an increase by 399 points [1] - SGD/CNY is reported at 5.6201, an increase by 146 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown characteristics of "low volatility + resilience" since June, achieving a basic "triple price unity" [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Resilience - The weakening trend of the US dollar index has contributed to the resilience of the yuan [1] - Domestic fundamentals and policy initiatives have provided support for the yuan [1] - The central bank's flexible operations to stabilize the exchange rate have played a crucial role [1] - The release of demand for foreign exchange settlement from clients has also bolstered the yuan's resilience [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The existing US tariffs on China will continue to exert pressure on exports, which remains a concern [1] - The key factors for the yuan's exchange rate will be the effectiveness of domestic consumption policies and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations after a potential easing of tariffs [1] - With the central bank's flexible exchange rate stabilization policies, the yuan is expected to maintain a low volatility state in the short term [1]