21世纪经济报道记者倪雨晴 深圳报道 蒂华纳位于美墨边境线上，是全球制造产业链的一个特殊枢纽。依托毗邻美国加州的区位优势，这座城市长期承担着跨境制造 与贸易的关键角色，形成了以电子、汽车、医疗设备为代表的密集型产业带。 在今年的实地走访中，记者看到越来越多的全球化企业在蒂华纳布局生产基地，包括TCL等一众国内科技企业。随着全球供应 链重组，墨西哥逐渐成为中国企业出海的重要落点之一。 而蒂华纳延绵的制造带，既是全球化版图重塑下的一个典型样本，也是经济体之间新型贸易生态的一个缩影。在规则调整、地 缘博弈与产业安全考量交织的环境下，跨国制造生态正在发生深刻演变。 在这样的背景下，TCL创始人、董事长李东生接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时谈道："全球化演变进程中，带来的利益分配并不 均衡，导致地区发展失衡，全球化受到广泛质疑。当下，全球经贸格局在经历深度调整期，但历史已经无数次证明，任何暂时 的波折，都无法阻挡全球化洪流奔涌向前。" （TCL创始人、董事长李东生） 从更广泛的视角看，正如经济学者周其仁在《寻路集》中所言："不管有无准备，我们都必须面对大变局，大变局就是全球竞争 格局发生重大变化。"在观察企业实践后，他在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tijuana, located on the US-Mexico border, is emerging as a critical hub for global manufacturing and trade, particularly for electronics, automotive, and medical devices, as companies like TCL expand their production bases in response to global supply chain restructuring [2][3] Group 1: Globalization and Business Strategy - TCL's approach to globalization is not merely market expansion but involves a long-term strategy focused on industrial capabilities and organizational structure, with a systematic upgrade of its global operations [3] - The company aims to establish five regional centers globally, enhancing local production, assembly, and supply chains to increase brand influence and business value [3] - TCL's overseas sales now account for 60% of its smart terminal business, highlighting the importance of international markets for revenue and profit growth [3] Group 2: Challenges and New Cycles - The current global landscape presents two overlapping challenges: a new cycle in global economic and trade patterns and a technological transformation cycle [5] - The shift towards localization and regionalization in global trade is creating both opportunities and challenges for Chinese enterprises, including TCL [5] - The rise of artificial intelligence and green development is reshaping business models and necessitating a focus on sustainability for Chinese companies [5][9] Group 3: Industrial Capability and Local Integration - The logic of overseas expansion is shifting from mere production to collaborative capability building, emphasizing the construction of supply chains and R&D capabilities [6] - TCL's strategy includes establishing local supply chains and manufacturing bases, as seen in its operations in Vietnam and Poland, which integrate local resources and talent [6][7] - The MOKA factory in Tijuana has evolved from a production facility to a key player in the local industrial ecosystem, enhancing its profitability and operational capacity [7] Group 4: New Trade Ecosystem - The global manufacturing system is characterized by interdependent relationships among industries and economies, which are being reshaped by recent trade dynamics [10] - Chinese companies, including TCL, are playing a crucial role in developing new trade ecosystems in countries like Mexico and Vietnam, enhancing their competitiveness in the global market [10][11] - The expansion of Chinese enterprises into international markets is driven by domestic pressures and the need to compete with multinational corporations [11][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - Participation in international competition is essential for Chinese companies to overcome growth limitations and achieve global leadership [12] - The ongoing evolution of globalization is complex and decentralized, requiring companies to focus on capabilities, organization, and resilience in their international strategies [12]

Core Insights - The recent IPO attempts of Zhipu AI and MiniMax in Hong Kong represent a significant moment for Chinese AI companies, showcasing their capabilities in the global market [1][8] - MiniMax has successfully challenged the stereotype that Chinese AI companies only focus on domestic markets, proving that they can create globally appealing and monetizable AI products [1][2] Group 1: MiniMax's Strategy - MiniMax's success is attributed to its focus on "full-modal" AI, engaging in text, voice, music, and video, achieving top-tier global rankings in these areas [2] - The company has launched products like Talkie and Hai Luo AI, which have gained high download volumes overseas, contributing to its revenue growth [2] - MiniMax has expanded its reach to over 200 countries, amassing more than 212 million users, with a significant portion of revenue coming from subscription models [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - MiniMax's revenue has seen explosive growth, increasing from $3.46 million in 2023 to $30.5 million in 2024, and reaching $53.4 million in just the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 170% [3] - The company has achieved a gross margin of 23.3% by 2025, indicating improved monetization and cost control capabilities [3] - Despite high revenue growth, MiniMax reported a net loss of $269 million in 2023, escalating to $465 million in 2024, and $512 million in the first nine months of 2025, with cumulative losses exceeding $1.327 billion [3][4] Group 3: Challenges and Competition - MiniMax's high losses are primarily due to substantial R&D expenditures, which reached $180 million in the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 337.4% of its revenue during that period [4] - The company faces intense competition from major players like OpenAI, Google, and Meta in the global market, as well as domestic competitors such as Doubao and Tencent [6] - Legal challenges also pose a risk, as MiniMax is facing lawsuits from major Hollywood studios over potential copyright infringements related to its Hai Luo AI product [6] Group 4: Comparison with Zhipu AI - MiniMax and Zhipu AI represent two distinct approaches to the AI market, with MiniMax focusing on consumer products and global outreach, while Zhipu AI emphasizes technology and infrastructure [7] - MiniMax's revenue model is primarily driven by consumer subscriptions, while Zhipu AI relies on B2B and government projects for income [7] - The contrasting strategies of these companies highlight the diverse pathways for growth within the Chinese AI industry, with MiniMax aiming for a global consumer base and Zhipu AI targeting domestic institutional clients [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The current global economic governance is at a challenging stage, transitioning from chaos to order, with significant impacts on China's export growth due to tariff shocks [1][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Governance - The geopolitical and market economic logic represents a long-term game, where short-term tariff impacts will negatively affect China's export growth [3]. - Historical context shows that developed countries encouraged China to reduce trade barriers and open markets, but now these same countries are moving against globalization [3]. Group 2: China's Competitive Advantages - China possesses three critical advantages: competitive production costs, a complete and efficient industrial chain, and a large-scale market for product sales [3]. - The nature of capital is to seek profit, and multinational companies are positioning their supply chains in China to leverage comparative advantages and enhance efficiency [2][3]. Group 3: Trade Protectionism and China's Response - Amid rising global trade protectionism, the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port signifies China's commitment to openness and strategic determination [4]. - Hainan is encouraged to adopt a bold reform spirit, aligning with high-standard trade rules and innovating in areas like data flow and intellectual property protection [4].

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee is considering acquiring Blue Bottle Coffee, a premium coffee brand owned by Nestlé, marking a significant potential merger between the "old king" Nestlé and the "new king" Luckin Coffee [1][13]. Group 1: Nestlé and Blue Bottle Coffee - Nestlé acquired a 68% stake in Blue Bottle Coffee for approximately $425 million in 2017, which was seen as a strategic move to embrace the "third wave" of specialty coffee [3][15]. - Over the past eight years, Blue Bottle has shifted from being a prized asset to a less valuable one for Nestlé, which reported nearly 740 billion RMB in annual revenue [3][15]. - The new CEO, Philippe Naefratil, has emphasized a growth strategy focused on internal growth rates and has raised critical questions regarding the attractiveness and positioning of Blue Bottle within Nestlé's portfolio [3][15]. Group 2: Blue Bottle's Market Position - Blue Bottle Coffee operates around 150 stores globally, with only 14 in mainland China, and its expansion has been nearly stagnant [5][17]. - The brand's commitment to a slow and artisanal coffee-making process contrasts sharply with Nestlé's focus on structured scale, making Blue Bottle a financial burden [5][17]. - Nestlé's growth is driven by its billion-dollar brands, while Blue Bottle's niche retail business contributes minimally and is misaligned with Nestlé's fast-moving consumer goods model [5][17]. Group 3: Luckin Coffee's Acquisition Intent - Luckin Coffee's potential acquisition of Blue Bottle is driven by a desire to elevate its brand perception from a budget option to a premium player in the coffee market [8][20]. - The acquisition could serve as a shortcut for Luckin to shed its "cheap drink" label and establish a presence in the high-end market, similar to how Anta leveraged acquisitions to build its brand matrix [8][20]. - Luckin's international expansion has been cautious, with only 108 overseas stores, making Blue Bottle's established presence in mature markets an attractive opportunity for global growth [8][20]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Concerns - Following the acquisition rumors, Luckin's stock price fell over 7%, indicating investor concerns about potential dilution of earnings [10][22]. - There is a fundamental cultural clash between Luckin's algorithm-driven operations and Blue Bottle's emphasis on artisanal craftsmanship, raising questions about the compatibility of their business models [10][22]. - Despite having approximately 9.4 billion RMB in cash, Luckin faces intense competition in the Chinese coffee market, with rising costs and price wars impacting profitability [10][22]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The potential merger is part of a broader trend in the global coffee industry, where major players are strategically divesting non-core assets while retaining valuable brand equity [12][24]. - This trend reflects a shift in the coffee value proposition, focusing on brand equity and intellectual property rather than the operational complexities of physical stores [12][24]. - The acquisition of Blue Bottle by Luckin symbolizes a clash of coffee philosophies and business models, highlighting the ongoing reevaluation of coffee's value in the market [12][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of gold price movements and the factors influencing these changes, emphasizing the importance of understanding historical trends and economic conditions to make informed investment decisions in gold. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Prices - The last major bull market for gold began in August 1971 when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, leading to a significant increase in gold prices [14] - The 1970s saw a dramatic rise in gold prices, but also significant corrections, such as a nearly 30% drop between 1975 and 1976 due to changes in monetary policy [16] - Economic conditions, such as the oil crisis and subsequent inflation, initially drove gold prices up, but rising interest rates led to a collapse in gold prices as investors preferred interest-bearing assets [18] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Recent gold price increases are attributed to three main factors: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical instability, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [24] - The domestic gold market in China has lagged behind international prices due to currency fluctuations, particularly the depreciation of the RMB against the USD [5][10] - The recent appreciation of the RMB has made gold purchases more expensive for domestic investors, highlighting the need to consider exchange rates when investing in gold [10] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation but does not generate interest, making its attractiveness relative to bank savings dependent on interest rates [9][12] - The article warns that no asset can continuously rise in value, with potential risks including uncontrolled inflation leading to interest rate hikes, which could drive investors away from gold [26][28] - The emergence of AI and its potential to boost economic productivity could lead to a shift away from gold investments towards riskier assets, depending on the actual impact of AI on the economy [30][32]

Core Conclusions - The overall beta of the automotive parts sector is expected to weaken in 2026, with structural opportunities being more favorable than total opportunities. The focus should be on "smart driving (L2++/L3/L4) + liquid cooling (AIDC) + humanoid robots" as the three main technology lines, along with the long-term certainty of "going overseas" [2][34] - EPS perspective: 1) Seek alpha that can traverse cycles in the existing market, prioritizing product companies with high competitiveness that can increase market share and companies that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion. 2) Globalization opens up growth space for automotive parts, with a significant increase in growth potential and risk resistance by prioritizing capacity layout in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [2][34] - Recommended companies include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, Joyson Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomag, with New Spring Co. as a focus [2] EPS Dimension Outlook - The automotive parts sector's beta is expected to be weak due to domestic total factors in 2026, with structural opportunities preferred over total opportunities. The focus should be on high-competitiveness product companies that can increase market share and those that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion [34] - Globalization is expected to open up growth space for automotive parts, with incremental orders mainly coming from Southeast Asia and European new energy markets [34] Market Review - The automotive parts sector's overall performance in 2025 was significantly influenced by AI and robotics, with the sector index outperforming the market in the first half of the year. However, it faced challenges in the second half due to U.S. tariffs and price wars [11][19] - The sector's valuation fluctuated, starting from approximately 21 times earnings at the beginning of 2025, peaking at 32 times by September, and then adjusting back down due to tariff impacts and slower-than-expected robotics progress [11][19] Globalization and Market Expansion - The global light vehicle production is projected to reach 78.82 million units in 2024, with overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, being significant contributors [52][57] - Chinese automotive parts companies are increasingly following domestic car manufacturers in their overseas expansion, leveraging cost control and response efficiency advantages [60][61] Recommended Companies and Focus Areas - Companies recommended for investment include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, and others that are positioned to benefit from high competitiveness and market share growth [2][34] - Focus areas include smart driving technologies, liquid cooling systems, and humanoid robotics, which are expected to drive growth in the automotive parts sector [2][34]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on its "globalization and new energy" strategy, with ongoing developments in overseas markets and new energy business segments [1] Group 1: New Energy Strategy - The company’s new energy products include photovoltaic transformers, charging piles, inverters, and energy storage solutions [1] - The photovoltaic transformer has received domestic first-set certification, while the charging pile business secured its first European order in Sweden worth 124 million yuan [1] - The inverter business has made continuous breakthroughs in the Brazilian market, and energy storage products include low-voltage home storage solutions ranging from 5-16 kWh and high-voltage stacked battery packs [1] Group 2: Order Status - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company has a total order backlog of 17.914 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.69% [1] - The overseas distribution order backlog stands at 2.169 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 125.45% [1] Group 3: Product Development - The company is developing intelligent management platforms that integrate self-developed Battery Management Systems (BMS) and Energy Management Systems (EMS), along with AI diagnostics to enhance operational efficiency and energy generation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are putting pressure on the Republican Party, and Trump is leveraging tariffs on China as a political tool to regain support [1] Group 1: Tariff Strategy - Trump initiated a significant tariff campaign against China during his second term, aiming to force major concessions in trade rules and industrial policies [3] - At one point, tariffs on Chinese goods reached as high as 145%, leading to severe disruptions in global supply chains [3] - The Wall Street Journal predicted that the tariff war could mark the end of globalization's golden era [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - Unlike the first tariff war, the current situation has seen the U.S. Trade Representative's Office approving numerous tariff exemptions for Chinese goods after strong Chinese countermeasures [5] - Approximately 90% of the costs from U.S. tariffs on China have been passed on to American consumers and importers, resulting in a 13% increase in manufacturing procurement costs [5] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The U.S. has released a new National Security Strategy that emphasizes careful resource management and a differentiated approach towards European allies [6] - Trump unexpectedly praised China, suggesting a potential thaw in relations, yet simultaneously announced a new tariff schedule targeting Chinese semiconductor products starting in June 2027 [6] - The rapid and precise response from China to U.S. tariff increases demonstrates its growing maturity in handling economic confrontations [6] Group 4: Political Context - As the midterm elections approach, Trump faces domestic challenges such as inflation and public dissatisfaction, prompting him to seek new strategies to bolster support [6] - The ongoing tariff issues with China are seen as a critical factor for Trump to regain political momentum [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese universities, particularly Tsinghua University, have surpassed Harvard and other top U.S. institutions in AI patent competition, indicating a significant shift in global technological leadership [2][5]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1999, the gap between Chinese and U.S. researchers was substantial, with many top talents leaving China for opportunities abroad [6][9]. - Zhang Yaqin's return to China marked a pivotal moment as he aimed to build a world-class research institute, which has since achieved significant milestones in AI and technology [7][10]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Over the past 25 years, China's technological landscape has transformed, with the country becoming a global leader in various tech sectors, including AI [9][17]. - The establishment of Microsoft Research Asia (MSRA) played a crucial role in showcasing China's R&D capabilities, leading to increased investment from multinational companies [11][13]. Group 3: Current Developments - As of 2025, Tsinghua University's AI research institute is focused on practical applications of AI, emphasizing collaboration between technology and industry [17][19]. - The institute has produced numerous research outcomes and is committed to open-source initiatives, contrasting with the proprietary nature of past corporate research [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Zhang Yaqin expresses optimism about the future of AI in China, highlighting the importance of balancing innovation with governance to address potential risks [19][20]. - The ongoing evolution of AI technology necessitates global cooperation to manage its implications effectively [19].