欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：欧洲央行目前在利率和通胀方面处于有利地位。 ...

智通财经7月4日电，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示，通胀低于预期的风险正在增加，欧洲央行目前在利率 和通胀方面处于良好地位。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant developments, particularly regarding interest rates and currency valuations, which could impact investment strategies and economic forecasts. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that some members believe current interest rates should be maintained, highlighting concerns about the potential dangers of euro appreciation for exporters [3] - A Reuters survey shows that 19 out of 27 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates at 3.25% on July 9, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a rate cut to 3.00% in Q3 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading futures traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [5] - The labor market in the U.S. remains healthy, with the possibility of prolonged high inflation, according to Federal Reserve official Bostic [5] - The ECB warns that a heatwave could impact inflation and economic growth [5] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - ECB official Demarco stated that the euro is unlikely to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency [5] - The Bank of Japan has revised its salary increase forecast for FY2025 down to 5.25%, maintaining a level above 5% for two consecutive years [5] - The Polish central bank governor mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September if data permits [5]

美联储博斯蒂克：这将对货币政策的有效性产生影响，使利率更加独立于美联储。 ...

美国财长贝森特：利率由美联储决定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by a series of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [2][11]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June showed an increase of 147,000, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [11]. - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector [12]. - Industrial orders in May increased by 8.2%, marking the largest monthly gain since 2014, with non-defense orders rising by 7.5% [13]. Trade Negotiations Summary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with EU negotiators, expressing hope for a principle trade agreement before the upcoming deadline [16]. - Yellen warned that if trade negotiations do not progress, tariffs may revert to previous levels [17]. - The market remains focused on the U.S. Congress's deliberations regarding President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending plan, with a procedural vote passing in the House [21][22]. Stock Market Performance Summary - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, reached all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.97% and the S&P 500 up 0.81% [7]. - Solar stocks showed strong performance, with Sunrun rising over 18% and First Solar increasing over 8% [8]. - Notably, the stock of Brain Rejuvenation Technology surged over 170% in a single day, marking a year-to-date increase of 21,300% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will play a crucial role in determining whether the recent downward trend of the U.S. dollar will continue [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that persistent inflation and a solid labor market indicate that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels [1] - Any unexpected downturn in the employment report could weaken Powell's position and increase market expectations for a rate cut in the July meeting [1] - Unless the employment data is weaker than expected, the dollar may continue to consolidate before the U.S. holiday on July 4 [1]

订阅美联储动态 +订阅 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 美国财长警告 关税可能会回升至4月2日水平 金十数据7月3日讯，美国财长贝森特警告美国的贸易伙伴不要延长贸易谈判，称如果没有取得进展，关 税可能会回升到4月2日的水平。贝森特透露，他今天将与欧盟谈判代表会面。当被问及讨论的结果时， 他只是说，"我们将看看与欧盟会发生什么。"在美国债务问题上，贝森特表达了对市场需求的信心。他 称"对美国国债的需求很大，"国内外对美国国债的需求依然强劲。他将债务管理过程描述为"有条不 紊"。贝森特还对利率发表了评论，暗示"两年期国债告诉你隔夜利率过高"，且"通胀预期应该会回 落"。他批评了美联储，称该委员会的判断"似乎有点偏差"。关于美联储的运作，贝森特表示，"对美联 储来说，控制开支是有益的"，他希望"看到美联储合理调整预算规模"。当被问及他是否希望美联储主 席鲍威尔辞职时，贝森特拒绝给出具体回应。他指出，有"很多强有力的美联储主席候选人"，并提到 了"明年填补两个美联储董事会职位"的可能性。 ...

Currency Market Overview - The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate halted its upward trend that began on June 18, fluctuating around 1.1800 during European trading on Wednesday [1] - The British Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 on Thursday [1] - The Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) maintained its overnight rebound, fluctuating around 143.50 [1] - The Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD) remained in a range below the year-to-date high of 0.6590 reached on Tuesday [1] - The New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD) showed positive momentum near 0.6050 [1] - The Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) fluctuated in a narrow range around 1.3650 [1] Key Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. ADP employment figures for June at 20:15 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to assert whether a rate cut in July is premature, indicating flexibility in decision-making [2][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates before autumn, with a guarantee of a cut by September at the latest [5] International Central Bank Commentary - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that current interest rates are below neutral levels, with any rate hike dependent on three inflation dynamics [7] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde mentioned that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, emphasizing vigilance regarding inflation [8] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the direction of interest rates remains downward, with significant uncertainty regarding terminal rate levels [9] Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing short-term overbought conditions with immediate support at 1.1800 and further support at 1.1740 and 1.1700-1.1690 [16] - The AUD/USD maintains a bullish outlook, with potential resistance at 0.6583 and further at 0.6650, while initial support is at 0.6529 [17] - The GBP/USD has shown a slight decline below the 20-period simple moving average, with next support at 1.3650 [17]

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]