Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the winning yield rate for the four-week Treasury auction in the U.S. as of July 10 is 4.235%, slightly up from the previous value of 4.24% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for U.S. Treasury auctions reached 90.97% as of July 10, compared to a previous value of 41% [1]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：我会将更高的利率视为一个令人担忧的因素。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that JPMorgan Chase's Chairman Jamie Dimon anticipates a 40% to 50% likelihood of rising interest rates in the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon estimates the likelihood of rising U.S. interest rates to be between 40% and 50% [1] Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate increases reflects ongoing economic conditions and potential inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's ability to pay interest on reserves allows it to inject liquidity when necessary without compromising interest rate control [1] Group 1 - The payment of interest on reserves is a strategic tool for the Federal Reserve to manage liquidity in the financial system [1] - This mechanism enables the Federal Reserve to respond effectively to market demands while maintaining its monetary policy objectives [1] - The approach helps to stabilize the banking system by providing banks with an incentive to hold reserves [1]

此外，十年国债ETF还有四点独特的配置优势： 1、 T+0交易便捷：国债类ETF实行"T+0"交易，即当日买入、当日可卖出。低利率环境中，市场呈现高 波动行情，高波动中必然蕴含较多的波段交易机会。 债市压舱石——十年国债ETF（511260）连续5日净流入额超11亿元，近1个月净流入额超百亿元，当前 规模超150亿元，流动性占优。 4 、可进行质押回购：当市场其他资产有投资机会、恰巧手头资金不够充裕时，投资者就可以通过ETF 质押换取资金，来参与其他类资产的投资，到期时再赎回ETF即可。 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定，目前组合平均久期为7.6年。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值 屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳健。根据基金定期报告，截至一季度末，近1年回报率达6.02%，近3年回报 率达15.04%，近5年回报率达19.26%，成立至今累计回报率达34.63%。 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current issuance progress of interest - rate bonds in 2025, predicts the issuance rhythm in the second half of the year, and evaluates its impact. It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, and the overall impact of the issuance of special refinancing bonds on the capital market is controllable [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Issuance Progress - **Treasury Bonds**: As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 32955 billion yuan, with a progress of 53.5%, the fastest in the same period in the past five years. The issuance scale of major - term coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance progress of special treasury bonds exceeded half, with the first issuance peak in May [10][16]. - **Local Bonds**: The issuance rhythm of local bonds in the first half of the year was faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 - 2023. General bonds showed the characteristics of "accelerating from January to March, slow issuance from April to May, and accelerating again in the last week of June". The issuance of special bonds was relatively even, and the progress slightly exceeded that of the same period in 2024. The issuance of special refinancing bonds was concentrated in the first quarter and gradually ended in the second quarter. The issuance of special new special bonds exceeded half, with a large volume in the second quarter [23][32]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: Since 2020, the issuance scale of policy - financial bonds has basically remained in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of policy - financial bonds was 34968 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 58%, generally higher than the same - period level in the past five years [36]. 3.2 Issuance Rhythm in the Second Half of the Year - **Treasury Bonds**: The net issuance scale in the second half of the year remains relatively high. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds may be more evenly distributed monthly, with a slower rhythm but a high net issuance scale. For special treasury bonds, as of July 7, 2025, there were still 10 bonds to be issued, with a remaining quota of 6220 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale per bond was about 622 billion yuan. August - September may be the peak issuance months [40][44]. - **Local Bonds**: In the case of new local bonds, two scenarios are considered. In both scenarios, the third quarter may see a supply peak. If 2 trillion yuan of debt - resolution quota for next year is advanced to this year's fourth quarter, the supply pressure in October may increase significantly, and the pressure in November - December will decrease. The issuance of policy - financial bonds is expected to maintain a balanced rhythm, with the total issuance amount remaining in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan, and the rhythm tends to be front - loaded [3][4][48]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: The total issuance amount is expected to remain in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan since 2020. The rhythm tends to be front - loaded, estimated by referring to the average issuance in the same period from 2020 - 2024 [72]. 3.3 Impact Assessment It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market. If there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period. If not, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases and MLF or restart treasury bond trading operations. Referring to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, if special refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall impact is expected to be controllable [5][77].

文︱陆弃 欧洲央行（ECB）在经历了长达一年多的连续降息周期后，终于迎来了政策转向的关键时刻。2025年7 月，内部意见分歧激烈的欧洲央行管理委员会可能暂停降息步伐，甚至有望在9月之后彻底终结货币宽 松周期。这一变化不仅标志着欧洲货币政策进入新阶段，更深刻影响着欧元区经济的未来走向和全球金 融格局的平衡。正当全球经济仍受地缘政治与贸易摩擦困扰之际，欧洲央行的这一策略调整无疑将掀起 一场风暴，波及金融市场、企业投资及消费者信心。 自2024年6月开始，欧洲央行已连续八次调降关键利率，其中最近五次更是连环出击，显示出央行试图 通过低利率环境刺激经济增长和通胀回升的强烈意愿。然而，近期市场预期的冷却，令7月24日的会议 可能出现"按兵不动"的局面。市场对欧洲央行再次降息的概率仅有5%，表明央行将更倾向于按下"暂停 键"，甚至在未来几个月彻底结束降息周期，存款利率稳定在1.75%的水平。这一转变背后，既有对欧 元区经济现状的重新评估，也体现了对全球不确定因素的审慎态度。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的多次公开表态清晰传递了这一信号。她强调"我们正接近货币政策周 期的终点"，并指出"通胀已回归目标水平"，这直接反映出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].