钛媒体App 8月27日消息，据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，将向特朗普推荐3-4位美联储主席候选 人，"肯定"会在秋季知道特朗普选择的美联储主席。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump is expected to announce his decision regarding the Federal Reserve Chair nominee in the fall [1] Group 1 - The announcement is anticipated to have significant implications for monetary policy and financial markets [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that two members opposed the decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 31 meeting [1] - Former President Trump has been vocal against the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, expressing dissatisfaction with the current chair, Jerome Powell [2] - The meeting minutes reflect a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. macroeconomic situation, with high inflation preventing the Fed from hastily resuming rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The committee noted a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remained low and the labor market was considered robust [3] - However, the August non-farm payroll report showed a surprising increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with only 73,000 jobs added, contradicting the earlier assessment of a stable labor market [3] - Trump's strategy appears to target Fed officials who support maintaining rates, potentially to intimidate others into favoring rate cuts without changing the Fed chair [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering 11 candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy leadership [2] Candidate Summary - Candidates include David Zervos from Jefferies and Rick Rieder from BlackRock, among others [2] - Other notable candidates are former Fed Governor Larry Lindsey, Bowman, Bullard, Hassett, Jefferson, Logan, Sumerlin, Waller, and Warsh [2] Current Fed Chair Context - Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has repeatedly called for Powell to resign [2] - Previous candidates considered by Trump include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve may begin a series of interest rate cuts sooner than expected, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September [2][3] - Current models suggest that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current levels [3] - There is an ongoing evaluation of candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, with a wide net being cast for potential nominees, including both public and private sector individuals [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury is considering changes in its approach to debt issuance, including the issuance of short-term Treasury bills to supplement fiscal cash [7] - The overall yield curve in the U.S. may shift downward, reflecting the credibility of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, with a noted decline in the 10-year Treasury yield [6] - There is a push for legislation regarding a single stock trading ban, with current proposals being described as not "perfect" and extending to the Treasury [8]

格隆汇8月13日｜巴克莱银行公共政策高级研究分析师迈克尔·麦克莱恩指出，特朗普提名接替库格勒的 斯蒂芬·米兰可能成为下一任美联储主席的黑马人选。如果得到参议院的批准，米兰可能会在任期届满 后无限期留任。特朗普本可以让库格勒的席位空缺，但他却选择迅速提名米兰，这显然在为其铺路。米 兰深得特朗普信任，始终坚定支持总统及其政策。此外，包括格林斯潘、伯南克和耶伦在内的多位前美 联储主席，都曾担任过白宫经济顾问委员会主席。而且与其他候选人相比，米兰将拥有货币政策发言权 和FOMC投票权这些优势。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. This has further repaired smelters' profits, increasing their production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. Currently, import losses are expanding, and the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and spot premiums are falling. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up domestic zinc prices. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,808 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 211,490 lots, down 2,088 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,902 lots, up 823 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 15,768 tons, up 274 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 80,425 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 3.58 US dollars/ton, down 3.35 US dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, it is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7. Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests going long with a light position, with a reference range of 267,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. The macro - situation shows that in July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production, sales, and exports also had significant growth. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, production in July increased due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season, and the US plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors. High prices have suppressed downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory, and holders are reluctant to sell. The spot premium remains at 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory is stable. Technically, increasing positions and rising prices indicate a warming bullish atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the M10 support level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 270,200 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai Tin is - 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 33,715 US dollars/ton, up 110 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,525 lots, up 2,247 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 129 lots, down 117 lots. The total LME tin inventory is 1,750 tons, up 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin inventory is 7,805 tons, up 134 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 260 tons, down 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin warehouse receipts are 7,397 tons, up 71 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 270,600 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 270,820 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 400 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 47.99 US dollars/ton, up 22.01 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 175,800 yuan/ton, up 2,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] Industry News - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%, and exports were 225,000 vehicles, a 1.2 - fold year - on - year increase [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Putin-Trump meeting" on Friday "cooled down", which was a "tentative meeting" and there was a possibility of direct withdrawal. On the fundamental side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy issuance restrictions increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remained stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines rebounded, but the port inventory of nickel ore in China decreased, and the raw materials were in a tight situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacities were still planned to be put into operation, driving a small increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants improved, and the plants increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries was limited. Recently, the increase in nickel prices weakened the procurement demand, the spot premium remained stable, and the domestic inventory increased; the overseas LME inventory also increased. Technically, there were differences between bulls and bears, and the price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range. It was recommended to wait and see for the moment or conduct range operations, with a reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,440 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 310 yuan/ton. The price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,325 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 210 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 73,889 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 3,304 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 25,561 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 212 lots. The LME nickel inventory was 211,746 tons, a month - on - month increase of 450 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 444 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants were 13,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 882 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel was 20,693 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30 tons [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 650 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals was 123,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 850 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 340 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 203.57 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.28 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4194 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 10.3334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3898 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 65.84 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.57 US dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel was 22,600 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel was 1.0414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1932 million tons [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0407 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 0.5929 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0151 million tons [2] 3.6. Industry News - The Trump team expanded the scope of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chairman. The Trump administration was considering including Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, Federal Reserve Vice - Chairman Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan in the candidates. The White House was expected to announce the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate this fall. In July, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. The export of new energy vehicles was 0.225 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, on the mining side, the copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still provides cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the increase in newly commissioned production capacity and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid making up for smelting losses, smelters are currently producing actively. However, considering the supply of copper concentrates, the production growth rate may gradually slow down. On the demand side, the impact of the consumption off - season is expected to continue, and the large - scale taxation of copper products by the US will suppress export demand. Therefore, downstream consumption demand may slow down, and the total inventory will remain at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where the supply growth rate gradually slows down and the demand is slightly weak due to seasonal changes and trade tariffs. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0605, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and green bars have just appeared. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,779 dollars/ton, up 47.50 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 156,044 hands, down 4,840 hands [2]. - The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 4,902 hands, up 5,608 hands; the LME copper inventory is 155,700 tons, down 150 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,933 tons (weekly), up 9,390 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,975 tons, up 900 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 26,296 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,150 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 43.50 dollars/ton, up 3.50 dollars [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 83.25 dollars/ton, down 13.70 dollars [2]. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons (monthly), down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 38.06 dollars/kiloton (weekly), up 4.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 68,850 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 69,550 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for crude copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee for crude copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged [2]. - The output of refined copper is 130.20 million tons (monthly), up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons (monthly), up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 54,990 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons (monthly), up 11.85 million tons; the cumulative value of investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 2,911 billion yuan (monthly), up 871.14 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 46,657.56 billion yuan (monthly), up 10,423.72 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.23%, down 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.70%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.35%, down 0.0049%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.24, up 0.0605 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Trump team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the Fed Chair candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs: As of June, US companies bear 64% of the tariff costs, consumers bear 22%, and foreign exporters bear 14%. By October, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs, and the proportion borne by companies will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. The export of new energy vehicles was 225,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues, and opposes malicious blockades and suppressions against China. It hopes that the US will work with China to achieve positive results on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2].