| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-08-12 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ，下游处于进入需求淡季，加工企业开工率同比有所下降。近期锌价下跌，下游逢低按需采购为主，但整 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 体成交依旧平淡，国内社库延续累增，现货升水下跌；海外LME库存下降明显，LME锌价强势带动国内锌价 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 。技术面，持仓增加价格上涨，多头氛围偏强，关注23000关口阻力。操作上，建议暂时观望。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that on the macro - front, China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a "flash crash" in crude oil. On the fundamental side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fee continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price increased significantly, which further repaired smelters' profits and increased their production enthusiasm. The new production capacity in various places was gradually released, and the previously overhauled capacity resumed production, accelerating the supply growth. At present, the import loss continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. On the demand side, the downstream entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises decreased year - on - year. Although the downstream made purchases on dips recently, the overall trading remained dull, and the domestic social inventory continued to increase while the spot premium declined. The overseas LME inventory decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price drove up the domestic zinc price. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicated a strong long - position atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 2,834 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 213,578 lots, up 4,712 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,079 lots, up 1,473 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 15,494 tons, up 1,148 tons. The SHFE inventory was 65,917 tons (weekly), up 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory was 81,500 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,560 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 0.23 US dollars/ton, up 4.09 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production of ILZSG was 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory was 91,200 tons (weekly), up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 7.69% (daily), down 1.32 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.27% (daily), down 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which would consolidate Russia's controlled territory in the conflict. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on August 15. Zelensky firmly refused to make territorial concessions and stated that an agreement without Ukraine's participation would be an "invalid plan" [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22050 | -40 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 90 | 40 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2683 | -52.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 253618 | -7783 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 9300 | -5731 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 7949 | -122 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45364 | 1731 LME库存(日,吨) | 110600 | -1725 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22040 | -230 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21730 | -320 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -10 | -190 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -22.05 | -0.41 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元 ...

采购氛围改善，国内库存下降明显，有望进入传统去库周期，海外延续去库。终端地产边际改善，但仍对 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 需求造成拖累。技术上，持仓增量，空头氛围偏强，关注MA10压力。操作上，轻仓空头思路。 免责声明 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-04-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 21990 | 70 06-07月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 140 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2582 | -33 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 233473 | -1595 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -6544 | 2443 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 9561 | -597 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 63857 | -4686 LME库存(日,吨) | 190550 | 78525 | | 现货市场 ...