Report Title - Supply Tightness and Weakening Demand: Shanghai Zinc Maintains a Sideways - Bullish Trend [1] Report Date - December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market has a supply - tight and demand - weak situation, and Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain a sideways - bullish trend. The tight supply is due to smelters' production cuts caused by raw material issues, while the demand shows a weakening trend overall [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - **Industry Data**: Domestic zinc ore is in short supply, and zinc ore processing fees are falling rapidly, providing some support for zinc prices. In December, the decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued. The domestic zinc concentrate production decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 31.14 million tons, while the import volume increased by 52.27% to 51.90 million tons. The domestic zinc ingot production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons. The export volume increased by 402.59% to 4.2816 million tons. The total supply increased by 2.14% month - on - month, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.86% [8] - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to around 7.4, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, strong economic data boosted demand prospects, but the increase in overseas inventories put pressure on LME zinc prices. Domestically, the overall macro environment was positive, and smelters' maintenance due to raw material issues continued, supporting Shanghai zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai - London ratio will continue to decline this week [9] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, inventory is decreasing, the market premium is rising, but the downstream consumption is average, and it is expected to fluctuate this week. In Shanghai, some traders cleared their inventories at the end of the year, and the downstream consumption was in the off - season. It is expected that the spot supply will be low and the premium will not decline significantly. In Tianjin, the premium increased last week but is expected to decline due to new environmental warnings. In Ningbo, the premium was high but is expected to fluctuate this week due to poor downstream orders [12] 3.2 Supply Side - **Processing Fees**: The weekly average of SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 2.74 dollars/dry ton to 47.39 dollars/dry ton. At the end of the month, the negotiation of January zinc concentrate processing fees between domestic smelters and mines is ongoing. The import market was quiet during the Christmas holiday, with few offers [15] - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: The production of zinc concentrate is affected by factors such as smelter production cuts and import window opening [15] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: The total inventory of SMM zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 2.7 million physical tons, a decrease of 0.67 million physical tons from the previous week. Huangpu Port and Fangchenggang Port contributed to the main reduction [8] - **Refined Zinc Production**: In December, refined zinc production continued to decline. It is estimated that the production in December will decrease by 14,000 tons to 512,000 tons, with a daily - average decrease of 5.8%. The cumulative production from January to December is expected to be 6.168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [28] - **Mineral and Ingot Imports**: In November 2025, the import of zinc concentrate was 519,000 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 52.27% and a year - on - year increase of 13.84%. The import of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.15% [34] - **Import and Export Profits**: The import window remained closed, and the possibility of opening within the year was low. The export window closed in December [36] 3.3 Demand Side - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of downstream zinc products such as Zamak5 zinc alloy, Zamak3 zinc alloy, zinc oxide, and hot - dipped galvanized products are presented in the report [39] - **Downstream开工情况**: The weekly galvanizing开工 rate increased by 1.05% to 56.67% due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production by northern enterprises, but the demand is weakening. The weekly zinc oxide开工 rate increased by 2.08% to 57.04% as some enterprises recovered from environmental protection - related production cuts and had better demand. The weekly die - casting zinc alloy开工 rate increased by 8.09% to 52.80% as some enterprises resumed production and the downstream demand improved [8] - **Downstream Inventory Days**: The inventory data of downstream zinc processing enterprises and smelters' finished products are presented, including raw material inventory, finished product inventory of zinc alloys and zinc ingots, and inventory days [46] 3.4 Inventory Changes - **Futures Inventory**: LME zinc inventory increased by 6.98% to 106,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1.83% to 42,100 tons [8] - **Spot Inventory**: As of December 25, the total SMM zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 7.87% from December 18. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangdong decreased, while the inventory in Shanghai remained unchanged. The bonded area inventory remained stable at 3,300 tons [8] 3.5 Macro - disturbances - **Macro - disturbance Factors**: The exchange rate, Shanghai - London ratio, US dollar index, and US federal funds target rate are presented in the report, but no in - depth analysis of their impact on the zinc market is provided [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream zinc ore import volume has declined due to the continued deterioration of the internal - external price ratio, and the loss of importing zinc concentrates in China has widened. Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves and prefer to purchase domestic zinc concentrates. However, the competition among smelters for domestic ore has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with expected output decline. [3] - Overseas supply remains tight. The Shanghai - London ratio has remained low recently, resulting in import losses in China and an open export window. It is expected to turn into a net - export situation in the future to relieve domestic supply pressure. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real - estate sector is a drag, while the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors are also weakening. The automotive sector has some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have corrected, trading sentiment has improved, spot premiums have increased, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly. LME zinc inventories have rebounded, but the spot premium has remained at a historically high level. [3] - Technically, with increased trading volume, open interest, and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has heated up. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 24,000 - yuan level. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main - contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spread between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 15 yuan. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,098.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5 US dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 214,900 lots, an increase of 6,840 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 13,920 lots, a decrease of 93 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 91,916 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons; the LME inventory is 55,375 tons, an increase of 1,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The basis of the ZN main - contract is - 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 163 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 79.66 US dollars. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 90 yuan/ton (the information may be incomplete); the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 19,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG in the current month is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume in the current month is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume in the current month is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume in the current month is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production volume of galvanized sheets in the current month is 1 million tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. [3] - The newly - started housing area in the current month is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the completed housing area in the current month is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production volume in the current month is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production volume in the current month is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.29%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.94%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.75%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In the United States, the core PCE price index in September increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, basically in line with market expectations. The real personal consumption expenditure in September was flat month - on - month. In December, the one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since January this year, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2%. [3] - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, special actions to boost consumption will be deeply implemented, commodity consumption will be expanded and upgraded, and more inclusive policies directly reaching consumers will be strengthened. Service consumption will be expanded by focusing on relaxing market access and promoting business - format integration. Active efforts will be made to expand independent opening - up, promote trade innovation and development, and expand the space for two - way investment cooperation. [3] - Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Leading Party Members’ Group and Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, chaired a seminar to study and plan the work ideas and measures for the "15th Five - Year Plan" and its first year. He emphasized the need to strengthen the foundation and create value, promote the stable growth of the industrial economy, comprehensively deepen reforms, ensure the safety of key industrial chains and supply chains, and enhance the security capabilities in areas such as networks, data, and artificial intelligence. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, inflation is expected to drop significantly next year, and the bond market will have its best performance since 2020. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore's visible inventory has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, pressuring zinc smelting profits and leading some high - cost zinc smelters to cut production. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. Although the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slightly decreased, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased after considering in - transit inventory and factory inventory. Recently, the LME zinc monthly spread has risen again, and the net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased, driving zinc prices to be strong in the short term. However, in the medium term, the weak status quo of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the upward space of zinc prices is expected to be limited [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Industry Data**: Zinc concentrate domestic TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton. Zinc concentrate port inventory is 279,000 physical tons, and factory inventory is 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.96% to 22,885 yuan/ton, and the total SHFE zinc positions decreased by 19,700 lots to 202,000 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 70 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 50 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 40 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 110 yuan/ton [12] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [12] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report provides multiple macro - related charts, including the US monthly fiscal revenue and expenditure and deficit MA12, the ratio of the US national debt to GDP, the Fed's balance sheet asset and liability structure, dollar liquidity, China and US manufacturing PMIs, and US manufacturing new orders and unfinished orders. However, there is no specific text analysis [15][17][20][21] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 330,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of 5.2%. From January to October, the total zinc ore output was 3.0706 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.0%. In October 2025, the net zinc ore imports were 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ore imports were 4.3406 million dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.0239 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [26][28] - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate TC is 2050 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index is 61 US dollars/dry ton [29][30] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5.6863 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net zinc ingot imports were 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net zinc ingot imports were 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2%. In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5.9671 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [34][36] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate and Inventory**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 56.54%, with raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and finished product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 51.30%, with raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 57.37%, with raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [40] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative apparent demand was 5.804 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [42] 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the domestic zinc ingot cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [53] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 42,600 tons. From January to September, the overseas refined zinc cumulative supply - demand difference was a surplus of 139,900 tons [56] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased to 140,300 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 62,000 tons, the domestic Shanghai basis is 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 45 yuan/ton [61] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 52,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 5,100 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is 186.85 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 43.5 US dollars/ton [64] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio is 1.063, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss is - 4,393.18 yuan/ton [65] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc has increased again. The net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased. From a position perspective, it is bullish in the short term [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Zinc Index rebounded after a decline, closing up 0.25% at 22,290 yuan/ton, with a decrease in total positions by 12,500 lots. LME zinc closed up 6.53% at $3,002.5/ton. The domestic zinc ore's explicit inventory is decreasing, and the domestic TC is declining again. Although the imported TC continues to rise, the current low Shanghai-London ratio limits its upward space, alleviating the zinc ore surplus. Both domestic and overseas zinc ingot inventories are decreasing. After the holiday, the cancelled warrants have risen again, and the delivery pressure is pushing up the LME zinc spread and price, opening the zinc ingot export window. Recently, precious metals and non-ferrous metals have been performing strongly, and after the export window opened, some short positions on the domestic exchange closed, causing Shanghai zinc to rise with reduced positions. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will perform strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.25% at 22,290 yuan/ton, with a decrease in total positions by 12,500 lots. LME zinc closed up 6.53% at $3,002.5/ton. As of the report's end, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,140 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 150,200 tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 116 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 303,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 629,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 55.82%, 49.73%, and 58.45% respectively [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc ingot inventories are decreasing, and the delivery pressure is pushing up the LME zinc spread and price, opening the export window. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will perform strongly in the short term [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non-ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 344,800 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The net import of zinc ore was 467,300 dry tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.5%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 555,100 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.9% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.2%. In August, the net import of zinc ingots was 27,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and a month-on-month increase of 37.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in August was 654,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.1% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0% [33][35]. - **Profit Distribution**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 116 dollars/dry ton [29]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die-cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 55.82%, 49.73%, and 58.45% respectively. Their raw material and finished product inventories were also reported [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot's apparent demand was 599,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 54,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to August was a surplus of 142,600 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 150,200 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 58,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 35 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 38,300 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 15,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was $59.11/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $82.75/ton [64]. - **Cross - market Structure**: The post - exchange - rate - adjusted Shanghai - London ratio was 1.034, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 4,167.68 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [70].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing as new production capacities are released and previously overhauled capacities resume production, but the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing due to tight overseas zinc mines and expanding import losses, and the export window is approaching to open. The demand side shows a lack - luster peak season, with galvanized sheet inventory under control and the processing enterprises' operating rate stabilizing and rebounding. The recent decline in zinc prices has led to downstream enterprises purchasing on - demand, resulting in a decrease in domestic social inventory and a slight increase in spot premium. The significant decline in overseas LME inventory and the increase in spot premium support zinc prices. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,090 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 2,898.5 dollars/ton, down 14.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 240,089 lots, up 3,214 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 8,978 lots, up 3,621 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 55,054 tons, up 2,523 tons; the SHFE inventory is 99,315 tons, up 4,666 tons; the LME inventory is 47,825 tons, down 1,000 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 50.91 dollars/ton, up 26.64 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,200 tons, up 4,200 tons; the global zinc mine production is 1.0814 million tons, up 30,100 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons; the zinc social inventory is 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.35 million tons, unchanged; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.3 million tons, down 10,000 tons; the newly - started housing area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the completed housing area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters; the automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12%, down 1.96%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12%, down 1.96%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.51%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.73%, down 0.03% [3] Industry News - Fed Governor Milan believes that interest rates will continue to be cut in the next few months and will try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari thinks two more rate cuts this year are appropriate. ECB President Lagarde says the ECB has reached its inflation target but uncertainties remain; ECB officials have different views on interest rates, with some believing the current rate is appropriate and there is no need for further easing [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. This has further repaired smelters' profits, increasing their production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, leading to a faster increase in supply. Currently, import losses are expanding, and the inflow of imported zinc is decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and spot premiums are falling. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up domestic zinc prices. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,808 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 211,490 lots, down 2,088 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 9,902 lots, up 823 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 15,768 tons, up 274 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 80,425 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 3.58 US dollars/ton, down 3.35 US dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, it is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production in the current month is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production in the current month is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 91,200 tons, up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.3%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.69%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.21%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7. Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair. The White House is expected to announce the candidate this fall. In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 times [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that on the macro - front, China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a "flash crash" in crude oil. On the fundamental side, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fee continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price increased significantly, which further repaired smelters' profits and increased their production enthusiasm. The new production capacity in various places was gradually released, and the previously overhauled capacity resumed production, accelerating the supply growth. At present, the import loss continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. On the demand side, the downstream entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises decreased year - on - year. Although the downstream made purchases on dips recently, the overall trading remained dull, and the domestic social inventory continued to increase while the spot premium declined. The overseas LME inventory decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price drove up the domestic zinc price. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicated a strong long - position atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 2,834 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 213,578 lots, up 4,712 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,079 lots, up 1,473 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 15,494 tons, up 1,148 tons. The SHFE inventory was 65,917 tons (weekly), up 4,193 tons, and the LME inventory was 81,500 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,560 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 0.23 US dollars/ton, up 4.09 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production of ILZSG was 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory was 91,200 tons (weekly), up 3,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The monthly automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 13.69% (daily), down 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 7.69% (daily), down 1.32 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.27% (daily), down 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The US and Russia were reported to be seeking a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which would consolidate Russia's controlled territory in the conflict. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on August 15. Zelensky firmly refused to make territorial concessions and stated that an agreement without Ukraine's participation would be an "invalid plan" [3].

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macroeconomically, Trump's tariff letters will impose 25% - 40% tariffs on 14 countries starting August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut by three months to September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with the processing enterprise's operating rate decreasing year - on - year. Zinc prices are weak, downstream consumption is gradually weakening, inventory shipment speed is slowing down, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventory is stable, while overseas LME zinc premium is rising and inventory is continuing to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, both long and short are cautious, and the lower shadow of the negative line indicates support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,683 US dollars/ton, down 52.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 253,618 lots, down 7,783 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,300 lots, down 5,731 lots. Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 7,949 tons, down 122 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons, and the LME inventory is 110,600 tons, down 1,725 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,040 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.05 US dollars/ton, down 0.41 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 63,600 tons, up 2,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The newly started housing area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the completed housing area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 15.1%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 15.09%, up 0.3%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 8.57%, up 1.16%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 14.96%, up 0.2% [3]. 3.7行业消息 - Trump has sent tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing 25% - 40% tariffs on imported goods from these countries starting August 1st, and has extended the counter - tariff suspension period to August 1st. The EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut by three months to September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. China has newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for a work - relief program to promote employment and income growth for key groups [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 04 - 17 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance - shut - down capacities, so the overall output will keep increasing [3]. - Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional downstream peak season is gradually picking up. With the recent decline in zinc prices, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved. Domestic inventories have declined significantly and are expected to enter the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand [3]. - Technically, the position is increasing, and the short - selling sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure. Operationally, a light - position short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,990 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc was 140 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,582 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars/ton. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc was 233,473 lots, down 1,595 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was - 6,544 lots, up 2,443 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 9,561 tons, down 597 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 63,857 tons (weekly), down 4,686 tons. The LME inventory was 190,550 tons (daily), up 78,525 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,220 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 490 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was - 31.57 dollars/ton, down 8.19 dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,550 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons. According to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - ILZSG's global zinc mine production was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 597,000 tons (monthly), up 30,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory was 88,900 tons (weekly), up 2,300 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons. The monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area was 66.14 million square meters, down 672.7884 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area was 737.43 million square meters, up 255.91 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production was 3.4986 million vehicles, up 51,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option was 18.32% (daily), down 0.34%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option was 18.32% (daily), down 0.34% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 18.3% (daily), up 0.22%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 17.98% (daily), down 0.07% [3]. 7. Industry News - According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in February 2025, the global zinc sheet production was 1.1245 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1079 million tons, with a supply surplus of 16,600 tons [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump even exceeded the Fed's highest pre - prepared estimate. Don't expect the Fed to rescue the market, as Trump changes every day [3]. - From a macro perspective, Powell said on Wednesday that the US economic growth seems to be slowing down, consumer spending growth is moderate, the rush to buy imported goods to avoid tariffs may drag down the estimate of GDP, and confidence is also deteriorating. Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the attractiveness of the US dollar has been weakened [3].