Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of reaching a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU is perceived by Trump to be only 50% despite optimistic signals from EU diplomats [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Prospects - Trump believes the chances of a trade agreement are "fifty-fifty," indicating uncertainty in negotiations [1] - U.S. and EU negotiators are reportedly working "closely" to achieve an agreement [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump has warned that if a trade agreement is not reached by August 1, the EU could face punitive tariffs of 30% on most goods [1] - Specific additional tariffs on certain industries will also be implemented if the agreement is not finalized [1] - Trump plans to issue more letters in the coming days to set new tariffs for other countries [1]

美国总统特朗普：大多数贸易协议现在都已完成。 ...

不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 贵金属日报 2025年07月25日 操作评级 刘冬博 高级分析师 贵金属 女女女 F3062795 Z0015311 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强、周度初清失业金人数21.7万人维 持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止目前市场不确定性仍存,但超预 期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 白银方面,国内外风险偏好打开阶段,仍相对于黄金有显著优势,目前处于上涨趋势中,关注光伏预期变化 是否影响白银需求预期改善期限结构。 全球贸易局势出现缓和迹象,成为金价承压的主要原因之一。美国与日本达成的贸易协议将汽车进口关税降 至15%,并豁免了部分商品的惩罚性关税,显著提振了市场风险偏好。此外,美国与欧盟的贸易谈判也传出 积极进展,市场预期双方可能达成一项包含15%基准关税的协议,低于特朗普此前威胁的30 ...

美国总统特朗普：一些贸易协议将通过信函的形式完成。 ...

特朗普：大多数贸易协议在8月前达成。 ...

特朗普：今晚将会见英国首相，将讨论与英国的贸易协议，可能会批准。 ...

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - Tokyo's inflation has decreased in July but remains high enough to support the Bank of Japan's consideration of policy normalization [1][2] - The Japanese government’s measures to stabilize prices are starting to show effects, yet core inflation pressures in Tokyo remain elevated [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its core inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, excluding energy price fluctuations [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Predictions - Morgan Stanley has postponed its prediction for ECB rate cuts from September to October, citing economic resilience and hopes for a US-EU tariff agreement [3] - Analysts from BNP Paribas believe that the ECB's optimistic outlook on the economic situation and potential trade agreements may lead to a pause in rate cuts [3] - High inflation and economic activity have supported the euro, with expectations that the ECB may maintain current rates unless significant economic deterioration occurs [3] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - Barclays analysts predict that investors are unlikely to engage in large-scale dollar selling during the upcoming portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month [4] - The dollar's performance has been supported by high core inflation, resilient economic activity, and a strong labor market, despite pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve [4] - The positive momentum in US equities continues, while US bonds have underperformed, influencing investor behavior in the foreign exchange market [4]

聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250725 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 市场人士表示，美国特朗普政府准备向委内瑞拉国家石油公司的主要合作伙伴授予新的授权，由雪佛龙开始，允许他们在受到制裁的委内瑞 拉进行有限度的运营。 2 美国总统特朗普宣称已与日本达成贸易协议，对日本进口商品征收15%的关税，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，并向美国开放汽车、农产品 等相关领域。另有关消息称，美国接近与欧盟达成贸易协议，将对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，双方将免除一些产品的关税，包括飞机、 烈酒和医疗设备。 3 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈，这是继日内瓦和伦敦会谈后的第三次高级别磋商，美国财政部长贝森特、 商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔共同参与。 4 EIA数据显示，上周美国原油库存减少320万桶，至4.19亿桶，是分析师预期减少160万桶的两倍。当周，美国汽油库存减少170万桶，此前市 场预期为减少90万桶；包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加290万桶，此前市场预期为减少10万桶。 5 24 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day due to signs of easing global trade tensions, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. As of 01:45 PM EST, spot gold decreased by 0.5% to $3,370.69 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures closed down 0.7% at $3,373.5 [1][3] - Market optimism regarding trade agreements, particularly between the U.S. and Japan, and potentially with the EU, has contributed to the decline in gold prices. A potential 15% baseline tariff on EU goods is being discussed, which may include exemptions [3] - The U.S. labor market remains stable despite a decline in hiring, as indicated by a surprising drop in initial jobless claims. Silver, palladium, and platinum also saw price declines, with silver down 0.7% to $39.02 per ounce, palladium down 3.5% to $1,234 per ounce, and platinum down 0.5% to $1,405.15 per ounce [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, while the market is still processing expectations for a potential rate cut in September. Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments [3] - The importance of reliable information sources for gold investors is emphasized, as timely and comprehensive data can aid in making informed trading decisions amidst market volatility [4]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between Japan and the United States involves a reduction of the "reciprocal tariff" rate from 25% to 15%, and the automotive tariff rate is also reduced to 15% [1][2] - Japan has committed to invest a total of $550 billion in key U.S. industries, purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, and increase its rice imports from the U.S. by 75% [2] - Despite the agreement, concerns remain in Japan regarding the limited impact on reducing the trade surplus with the U.S., and the possibility of further pressure from the Trump administration [2][6] Group 2 - Japanese automotive industry representatives express dissatisfaction with the new tariff rate, stating that 15% is still too high compared to the previous 2.5% rate [4] - Mitsubishi Motors reported a significant 97.5% decrease in net profit for the April to June period, attributing the decline to high tariffs [4] - Experts warn that the initial agreement does not adequately address the trade imbalance, and further pressure from the U.S. may continue [6][7]