近日，黄金价格实打实给所有人"上了一课"。 最近，国际现货黄金价格"跌跌不休"而冲上多个热搜。 6月16日至18日，国际现货黄金价格已经连续下跌3天。 北京时间6月19日，国际现货黄金价格继续在3400美元/盎司关口下方震荡调整。 截至15时10分，伦敦现货黄金下跌0.48%，盘中最低跌至3347.20美元/盎司。 在国内市场方面，部分品牌黄金和银行投资金条价格小幅下跌。 截至15时，沪金主连下跌0.49%。 技术性抛售与机构行为：金价前期快速上涨至3500美元后超买，触发程序化交易平仓和杠杆投资者止损，形成"多杀多"踩踏 效应。部分机构选择高位获利了结，加剧短期波动。 投资需求疲软：花旗报告指出，散户购金需求减弱（家庭黄金配置达50年峰值3%），叠加美联储降息可能压制远期价格， 导致市场信心松动。 不少网友则是认为，金价还是那么高，哪里跌了？ 针对近期金价跌宕，高盛、瑞银等则是持续看涨。 相关机构认为，回调是中长期布局机会，2025年底目标价3700-4000美元/盎司。 截至收盘，A股贵金属板块和黄金概念板块分别下跌1.90%、2.41%。 花旗银行最新分析报告认为，金价将在今年第三季度达到顶峰后逐步回落 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, on gold prices, with historical data showing a tendency for gold prices to rise during military confrontations in the Middle East [1][3] - Central banks have been on a gold purchasing spree, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons for three consecutive years, and a notable increase in purchases in late 2024 and early 2025, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [1][2] - The shift in global reserve assets is evident, with gold surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for 21% of total reserves, while the dollar's share has decreased from 72% in 2000 to 58% [2] Group 2 - Three potential scenarios for future gold price movements are outlined: a possible price correction if the Iran conflict does not escalate, a significant price increase if the U.S. engages in direct conflict with Iran, and a sustained demand for gold if there is a large-scale sell-off in the U.S. bond market [3][4] - The ongoing bull market for gold in the first half of 2025 is driven by trade tensions and the continued trend of central banks purchasing gold, alongside a global shift away from the dollar, positioning gold as a key strategic asset in a multipolar world [4]

进群参加技术课程 中东战局升级风险支撑金价，黄金多头能否重启涨势？如何通过技术面识别主力意图？邀你无门槛进群 参加剑客训练营！读懂盘口语言，快速把握行情机会 相关链接 ...

又到多空大碰撞。 据记者不完全统计，目前市面上有据可查的国际投行对今年末黄金的目标价预测，价差已经高达整整每盎司一 千美元了。 经高达1000美元/盎司（4000-3000美元）。 多空大博弈，黄金价差上千美元 今日（6月19日），瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室基于世界黄金协会的最新调查结果——各国央行在过去三年 中每年增加超过1000吨黄金，是前十年平均增长率的两倍；高达95%的受访者预计全球央行的黄金储备将在未 来12个月内增加等结论，重申了其关于金价到今年年底约 为3500美元/盎司 的观点。 之所以说重申，是因为瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室在今年四月中旬就发布观点，将未来12个月黄金价格预测 从基准情景上调至上行情景的3500美元/盎司。然后又在六月中旬，称仍然看好全球股市、国防和黄金，预计 到2025年底金价将达到3500美元/盎司。 不是每家投行都维持对黄金的稳定乐观判断。 就在前两天，花旗银行明确看空金价，称美联储的降息预期将削弱黄金的吸引力，购金需求下降，金价预计在 未来几个季度将 跌破3000美元/盎司 。且该行还有分析师进一步表示，到2026年下半年，黄金价格将回落至每 盎司约2500至2700 ...

军工战略资产崛起 20250618 摘要 全球支出重心转移，中国军贸迎来机遇。中国武器出口占比迅速提升， 2023 年达 10%。俄乌冲突后，俄罗斯武器出口下降，中国凭借无人机 等新型武器装备和价格优势提升竞争力。 中国国防预算支出占 GDP 比重偏低，约为 1.3%，低于俄罗斯 （7.1%）、美国、韩国、英国和印度。未来中国国防开支仍有增长潜力。 全球政治军事经济动荡加剧，黄金作为避险工具和战略储备的重要性凸 显。秩序重构预期下，黄金或有上涨空间，维持十年战略看多判断。 苏试试验和广电计量作为军工三方检测龙头，订单增速良好，利润端增 速弹性可能大于收入端。广电计量固定资产投入增加，折旧周期延长， 成本降低。 苏试试验 2024 年利润承压，但预计 2025 年 Q2 起逐季改善，全年利 润预计增长 34.2%，估值安全边际较好。行业订单向好将成为市场催化 剂。 东华测试仪器仪表类产品发展良好，订单增长迅速，结构力学性能分析 经验丰富，国产化进程推进。预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润高速增长。 军工行业 2025 年有望迎来拐点，海外安全局势紧张，军备需求旺盛， 中国军备产品竞争力提升，军工信息化产品外 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis is becoming a central driver of gold price volatility, influenced by geopolitical risks and the countdown to potential U.S. debt default [1] - The U.S. Treasury is nearing its debt ceiling, with Secretary Yellen warning that the limit will be officially reached, halting new debt issuance [2] - A significant imbalance in supply and demand is emerging, as foreign official buyers are refusing to purchase long-term U.S. bonds, which could lead to a vicious cycle of rising debt servicing costs [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The threat of U.S. debt default has triggered an influx of safe-haven investments into gold, with spot gold prices reported at $3,377.27 per ounce [5] - If a debt agreement is reached, the Federal Reserve is expected to become a major buyer of U.S. debt, potentially leading to inflationary pressures that could push gold prices to historical highs [6] - Conversely, if an agreement is not reached, the resulting market turmoil will also support gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies - IEXS provides customized solutions for investors to capture gold market opportunities, including real-time price tracking and professional analysis tools [7] - Recommended trading strategies include using a combination of options and phased entry into positions, utilizing gold ETFs or spot contracts for risk hedging [7] - The company employs a proprietary crisis warning system to monitor key indicators and dynamically adjust portfolio allocations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the various risks associated with investing in spot gold, highlighting the importance of understanding these risks for potential investors in the volatile gold market [1]. Group 1: Market Risks - Price volatility risk is influenced by global economic conditions, geopolitical events, inflation expectations, and the strength of the US dollar, leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [3]. - Liquidity risk can arise during extreme market conditions, such as panic selling or economic crises, potentially increasing transaction costs and losses [4]. - Financial risks include the risk of price declines, where short-term drops can lead to capital losses despite gold's long-term value retention [6]. - Leverage risk is present due to the margin system in spot gold trading, which can amplify both gains and losses, potentially leading to significant losses if market movements are unfavorable [8]. Group 2: Mitigation Strategies - To manage market risks, investors should monitor economic data, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies, while diversifying their investment portfolios to reduce the impact of single asset volatility [3]. - For liquidity risk, it is advisable to choose reputable trading platforms and brokers, and to manage funds wisely to avoid excessive leverage [5]. - To address financial risks, investors should control their positions, set stop-loss points based on risk tolerance, and consider dollar-cost averaging to smooth out price fluctuations [7]. - To mitigate leverage risk, it is recommended to use leverage cautiously, typically not exceeding a ratio of 1:10, and to maintain sufficient margin [9]. Group 3: Platform and Policy Risks - Platform risk arises from the potential for fraud or instability in trading platforms that lack proper regulation and credentials [10]. - Policy risk is associated with changes in national policies, such as monetary, tax, and regulatory measures, which can affect gold market supply and demand [12].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings are significant events that impact global financial markets, influencing both the dollar and gold prices, serving as a key indicator for investors seeking opportunities in volatile markets [1] - Investors need a reliable and efficient investment platform to convert market insights into actual advantages during the rapidly changing gold market on Fed meeting nights [3] Group 2 - The safety and compliance of an investment platform are crucial during potential market volatility, with the company holding an AA class trading license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and being strictly regulated by law [4] - The company has been recognized as one of the top three most active London gold/silver traders by the Hong Kong Gold Exchange for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong market liquidity and execution efficiency [5] - Choosing a robust and qualified platform is essential for successfully navigating opportunities in the gold market during Fed meetings, with the company positioned as a reliable partner for investors [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the next meeting, with two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00% [3] - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded while inflation expectations have been raised, indicating ongoing stagflation risks [3][4] Group 2 - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily, with low unemployment and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have not significantly escalated, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts that global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings, predicting a gold price of approximately $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year [5] - The World Gold Council's latest survey indicates that central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, double the average growth rate of the previous decade [5] - 95% of survey respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [5] Group 4 - The gold ETF fund (159937) is designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise in line with the expansion of credit money supply and its role in hedging tail risks in investment portfolios [5] - Gold assets have historically performed well during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, suggesting a favorable investment environment for gold ETFs [5]

截至2025年6月19日 11:06，黄金ETF基金(159937)下跌0.12%，最新报价7.48元，成交1.44亿元。拉长时 间看，截至6月18日，黄金ETF基金近1周日均成交8.59亿元，排名可比基金前3。 国泰君安期货表示，我们倾向于三季度黄金仍有不错的上涨环境，1）在关税情绪缓和、经济动能边际 放缓但没有衰退风险、以及通胀温和回落的情况下，为美联储重启温和降息提供了较好的契机。以9月 开启降息作为基准预期，黄金有望三季度再度打出高点。2）财政扩张对债务的风险和担忧并不严峻， 期限溢价对利率的支撑有所减弱，且通胀预期随着高频经济动能放缓，后续利率下行可能取代美元继续 利多黄金。 截至2025年6月13日，黄金ETF基金近1年夏普比率为2.53。 回撤方面，截至2025年6月18日，黄金ETF基金今年以来相对基准回撤0.37%。 费率方面，黄金ETF基金管理费率为0.50%，托管费率为0.10%。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金最新融资买入额达3471.54万元，最新融资余额达37.10 亿元。 截至6月18日，黄金ETF基金近5年净值上涨94.96%，排名可比基金前2，贵金属基金排名4/ ...