由于特朗普威胁罢免鲍威尔，引发美联储独立性危机，美元指数跌至2024年1月以来最低点，为新兴市场提供了反弹机会。 周一，新兴市场货币指数上涨0.3%，此前在上周，该指数已经录得0.8%的涨幅，创下六周以来最大单周涨幅。 Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.的策略师Win Thin和Elias Haddad在一份报告中写道： 我们相信美元疲软将会持续。然而，我们也继续认为，全球增长前景将在今年急剧恶化，因此对增长敏感的主要货币和新兴市场 外汇最近的涨幅可能无法持续。 彭博亚洲美元指数（追踪亚洲货币相对于美元表现）同样在周一走高，其中泰铢和马来西亚林吉特的表现尤为抢眼，日内涨幅均达到1%。 过去一个月，泰铢兑美元汇率涨幅达到3.2%，涨势显著。 美元本轮大跌源于特朗普解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性，这引发了人们对美联储独立性的担忧。美元指数在连续三周走弱后，周一一度跌 破98关口，至2024年1月以来的最低水平。 Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd.的共同基金主管Shweta Rajani表示： 新兴市场资产迎来强势反弹周，印度股市五连涨 受对中国经济的乐观情绪以及特朗普宣布暂停加征 ...

现货白银日内涨幅达1.5%，上触及33美元/盎司，报33.01美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar index below the 99 mark is attributed to multiple factors, including economic challenges in the US, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the impact of trade policies under the Trump administration [3][4][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Index Trends - The US dollar index has shown a significant downward trend since February 2025, dropping from above 109 to around 98.3097, marking a year-to-date decline of 9.38% and a 5.66% drop in April alone [3]. - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar is not merely a market fluctuation but is driven by underlying economic conditions, including a transition phase in the US economy and unprecedented fiscal challenges [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan has been alleviated due to the weakening dollar, with both onshore and offshore yuan recovering above the 7.3 mark against the dollar [5][6]. - As of April 21, the onshore yuan appreciated by 0.16% to 7.2885 and the offshore yuan by 0.18% to 7.2906, indicating a relative stability compared to other major currencies [5]. Group 3: Gold Price Movements - The decline in the dollar has led to a surge in gold prices, with international gold prices reaching new historical highs, such as COMEX gold futures surpassing $3400 per ounce [8][9]. - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include ongoing global trade tensions, inflationary pressures from tariffs, and a strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over US economic stability [9].

美元指数跌破99关口是近期金融市场的一个重要事件。这一变动背后隐藏着诸多经济因素，也将对全球经济和金融市场带来深远影响，引起广泛 关注和讨论。 走势情况：近期美元指数持续下探，最终跌破了99关口。这一走势并非偶然，是一系列因素交织的结果。从技术层面看，美元指数已出现多日下 跌趋势，市场上看空美元的力量逐步增强。从更宏观角度，它与美国的经济数据表现、货币政策预期等息息相关。 未来展望：美元指数后市走向充满不确定性。若美国经济数据改善、货币政策转向，美元指数可能止跌回升。但如果经济持续疲软，货币政策维 持宽松，美元可能进一步走弱。投资者和企业需密切关注市场动态，做好风险管理。 你认为美元指数未来一段时间会回升还是继续下跌？不妨点赞、分享文章并在评论区交流看法。 汇率市场：美元指数下跌直接影响到各国货币与美元的汇率。一些新兴市场货币趁势反弹，在一定程度上缓解了本币贬值压力。对于进出口企业 而言，这会影响到它们的成本和利润。出口型企业可能因本币升值而面临订单减少的困境，进口型企业则因货币购买力增强而降低采购成本。 商品市场：美元与大宗商品价格通常呈反向关系。随着美元指数跌破99，黄金、原油等大宗商品价格往往会上涨。以 ...

美元指数跌破99关口是近期金融市场的一个显著事件，这一变化对全球经济和金融格局都产生了重要影响。下面将从几个方面分析这一现象的 成因、影响及后续走势。 跌破原因 美元指数下跌有多方面原因。从美国国内来看，经济数据表现不佳，通胀压力缓解，使得美联储继续激进加息的预期减弱。此外，银行业危机 也动摇了市场对美元的信心。从国际来看，其他主要经济体表现相对较好，货币有升值动力，导致资金从美元资产流出。 市场反应 金融市场对此反应强烈。股市方面，美元贬值使以美元计价的资产变得更便宜，吸引了一些投资者进入股市，推动了股市上涨。在汇市中，非 美货币普遍升值，欧元、日元、人民币等兑美元汇率都有不同程度涨幅，外汇交易更加活跃。 经济影响 对美国经济而言，美元贬值利于出口，因为更便宜的美元使美国商品在国际市场上更有价格竞争力。然而，这也会提高进口成本，可能加剧国 内的通胀压力。对新兴市场国家来说，美元贬值缓解了它们的外债压力，但也可能带来资本流入过多等新问题。 后市展望 未来美元指数走势充满不确定性。如果美国经济数据好转，美联储释放鹰派信号，美元指数可能反弹。但如果全球经济格局进一步变化，其他 货币继续走强，美元指数可能继续下行。 ...

美东时间4月20日，美元指数跌破99关口，为2022年4月以来首次。 近段时间，美国贸易政策反复变动，扰动市场并打击投资者信心，有美国媒体分析称，美元长期以来 的"避风港"地位受到冲击。 资料图：美元。 风暴中的"避风港" 《纽约时报》近期分析称，美元持续下跌，可能表明投资者开始避开长期以来是全球金融市场"避风 港"的美元。 美媒称，投资者们原本预测，随着关税政策实施，美元会升值。因为传统观念认为，关税会抑制美国人 购买进口商品，进而减少对外国货币的需求。美国财政部长贝森特曾提出，美元的升值幅度将大到足以 抵消通货膨胀上升的影响。 《华尔街日报》援引分析指出，美元作为可靠"避风港"的地位已经受损。麦格理集团的金融市场经济学 家维兹曼表示，此轮美国政策巨变不仅威胁到美元在市场承压时期的避险地位，还可能削弱美元作为事 实上的全球货币的地位。这可能会引发一系列负面后果，包括美国政府和消费者的借款成本上升。 美联储面对"双重压力" 周一（4月21日）亚洲早盘时段，与美元指数一同下跌的还有美股期货指数。彭博社认为，美国总统近 期对美联储的批评令投资者紧张。 美联储主席鲍威尔日前发表讲话时称，美国政府已宣布的关税上调幅度 ...

Core Points - The US Dollar Index experienced a slight decline of 0.01% on April 17, closing at 99.375 [1] Currency Exchange Rates - 1 Euro was exchanged for 1.1373 USD, down from 1.1386 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 British Pound was exchanged for 1.3269 USD, up from 1.3229 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 142.46 Japanese Yen, up from 142.10 Yen the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 0.8188 Swiss Francs, up from 0.8143 Swiss Francs the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 1.3841 Canadian Dollars, down from 1.3880 Canadian Dollars the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 9.6191 Swedish Krona, down from 9.7584 Krona the previous trading day [1]

美元指数16日下跌 金十数据4月17日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.83%，在汇市尾市收于99.385。截 至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1386美元，高于前一交易日的1.1273美元；1英镑兑换1.3229美元，高于 前一交易日的1.3216美元。1美元兑换142.10日元，低于前一交易日的143.16日元；1美元兑换0.8143瑞士 法郎，低于前一交易日的0.8223瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3880加元，低于前一交易日的1.3968加元；1美 元兑换9.7584瑞典克朗，低于前一交易日的9.8931瑞典克朗。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on the currency exchange rates, particularly the Chinese Yuan (RMB), and the implications for traditional trade enterprises and e-commerce. Core Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations**: The RMB has been oscillating between 7.3 and 7.35, with market expectations divided on its future trajectory due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions and central bank policies [1][4][10]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade**: Traditional trade enterprises are significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a halt in US export orders or a shift to overseas factories. E-commerce sellers are mitigating tariff impacts through low declaration methods [2][25]. 3. **Market Volatility Post-Tariff Announcement**: Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, global asset markets experienced significant volatility, with the RMB showing relatively small fluctuations compared to the overall depreciation of the USD [3][5]. 4. **Divergent Views on RMB Future**: There are mixed opinions on the RMB's future, with some predicting continued depreciation due to the trade war, while others see potential for appreciation given the overall weakness of the USD [4][10][13]. 5. **Tariff Policy and Dollar Weakness**: The extensive nature of the tariffs has accelerated global trade decoupling, weakening the USD's reserve status and leading to a decline in the dollar index below 100 [5][6]. 6. **Euro Valuation**: The Euro is considered undervalued against the USD, with a reasonable valuation around 1.2, suggesting potential for appreciation if trade tensions escalate further [6][12]. 7. **Current State of US-China Trade Relations**: The trade war is currently at a stalemate, with no significant escalation or comprehensive tariffs being implemented [7][8]. 8. **RMB Pricing and Tariff Risks**: The current RMB exchange rate has already priced in tariff risks, with the depreciation being less severe than during the 2018-2019 trade war period [9][10]. 9. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: If US-China negotiations lead to a resolution, the additional risk pricing due to tariffs could be eliminated, potentially causing a sharp appreciation of the RMB [12][13]. 10. **Traditional Trade Enterprises' Strategies**: Different types of traditional trade enterprises are responding variably to the tariff situation, with some maintaining operations through local factories in the US, while others are exploring non-US markets [16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **E-commerce Seller Adaptability**: E-commerce sellers can absorb a certain percentage of tariff increases without raising prices, indicating a resilience in their business model compared to traditional trade [26]. 2. **Logistics and Shipping Adjustments**: The shipping industry is adjusting to reduced trade volumes, with a significant drop in traditional trade leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [29][30]. 3. **Investment Considerations for Enterprises**: Companies looking to expand overseas must consider political stability, tax incentives, and local regulations to mitigate risks associated with international investments [18][19][22]. 4. **Financial Risks in Emerging Markets**: Investing in regions with unstable currencies, such as some African nations, poses significant financial risks due to potential currency fluctuations [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the US-China trade war and its broader implications for currency valuation and international trade strategies.

Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: April 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market is experiencing shock adjustments after releasing short - term pressure, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads. The external market has support, and attention should be paid to subsequent planting progress and macro - changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market sentiment has eased, and Zhengzhou cotton is in shock adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth markets are generally weak, with inventory accumulation and price declines [7] - The US dollar index has weakened due to the uncertainty of the Trump administration's import tariff policy. USDA's weekly export signing report shows a decline, but shipments are still at a peak. New - season planting progress is slightly slow, and the drought index is high. The domestic downstream demand is tepid, and the inventory pressure is not significant. After the release of short - term pressure, Zhengzhou cotton will mainly be in shock adjustment, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads [8] 2. Industry News - In March 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.402 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative exports were 66.282 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1% [9] - As of the week of April 8, 2025, CFTC's non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures decreased, short positions continued to decline, and the total ICE positions decreased. The net long ratio was - 13.2%, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 42.9 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]