Group 1: Core Insights - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) faced selling pressure, trading at 0.6450, down 0.0620% from the previous day, with a high of 0.6468 and a low of 0.6447, halting its recovery from a three-month low [1] - The strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is a primary factor suppressing the Australian dollar [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a hawkish policy stance, supported by improved market risk appetite, which provides some support for the Australian dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economic growth is robust, with the November Manufacturing PMI rising from 49.7 to 51.6, indicating expansion, while the Services PMI increased to 52.7, and the Composite PMI strengthened to 52.6 [1] - These positive economic indicators reinforce the RBA's cautious hawkish policy, suggesting that if economic data continues to exceed expectations, interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period [1] - RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter emphasized that sustained growth above trend could intensify inflationary pressures, indicating that monthly inflation data fluctuations should not prompt premature policy adjustments [1] Group 3: US Economic Context - In the US, September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and wage growth remained subdued [2] - The moderate slowdown in the labor market has led some investors to speculate on potential policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2] - The FOMC minutes from October revealed a divergence among Fed members regarding the necessity of a rate cut in December, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut rising from 30% to 36% [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD recorded a 0.10% decline, trading at 0.6440, as global market sentiment diverged despite positive domestic economic data [3] - The short-term technical outlook appears bearish, with the price below the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), which is trending downwards, forming a death cross with the 50-period SMA [3] - Immediate resistance is at 0.6468, with potential targets at 0.6500 and 0.6520, while support levels are at 0.6447 and 0.6420, with further declines targeting 0.6400 [3]

黄金走势分析： 国内沪金，积存金走势： 国内金上周也是震荡来回走了几次，我们中线的布局和短线交易各有收获，沪金（2602合约）布局的925多单 最高在950，短线也提示了930，935做多，积存金布局的922多单最高在942，短线也提示了935做多，虽然暂时 收盘沪金在930，积存金在926处于低位状态，但也不乏在本周是震荡表现，所以，周内还是可以继续做多看 涨，沪金下方支撑在920，积存金下方支撑在915，回落确定支撑后可以继续做多看涨，周内沪金还是看955， 积存金还是看950，耐心等待市场变化。 一篇文章的牵引，可能看不出什么，但是长长久久的精准分析，才是我们稳步提升利润的主要途径。可能你见 过太多的分析，也见过太多的盈利，然而亏损还是跟随你，那是因为你总喜欢综合分析操作，而市场本身就是 多数必死，少数必盈的抉择。综合分析，不如只跟一人，虽然没人能保证百分百盈利，但是，我们只要建立入 场、出场、风控三位一体的平衡术，实现稳定盈利即可。积少成多，其实也没那么难。 周一(11月24日)：国际黄金开盘窄幅波动，早盘延续上周五回升之力，以及美联储"三把手"鸽派发言令12月降 息预期有所回暖，有所走强，但仍面临阻 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **U.S. Stock Market**: Recent volatility influenced by mixed non-farm employment data, fluctuating confidence in tech and AI stocks, and uncertainty in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][3][4] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: Continued decline due to domestic economic conditions and overseas risk factors, with a potential for slight rebound but requiring more fundamental support for a trend reversal [1][6][11] - **Japanese Bond Market**: Rapid increase in long-term bond yields and depreciation of the yen raise concerns about carry trade unwinding, potentially affecting global capital flows [1][7][14] Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an increase of 119,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose, leading to mixed signals about the economy [4][5] - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook**: Increased probability of a rate cut in December, rising from 30% to over 60%, which could alleviate liquidity pressures and boost the stock market [5][9][16] - **AI Industry Focus**: The AI sector remains a key area of interest, with potential IPOs like OpenAI expected to drive market sentiment. However, concerns about profitability and capital expenditures persist [4][13][16] Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Projections for China**: By 2026, China's economy is expected to undergo significant structural transformation, with policy guidance likely to enhance resilience compared to other countries [1][10] - **Market Sentiment on Hong Kong Stocks**: Current market adjustments viewed as healthy rather than panic-driven, with optimism for 2026 based on valuation and global comparisons [6][11][12] - **Risks from Japan's Economic Policies**: Discrepancies between aggressive fiscal policies and conservative monetary policies in Japan could lead to increased inflationary pressures and challenges for sustainable economic growth [14][17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism for the U.S. and Hong Kong markets in the long term, contingent on monetary policy developments and economic fundamentals. The AI sector's trajectory will be critical in shaping market dynamics, while Japan's economic policies warrant close monitoring due to their potential global implications.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. stock market**, **Chinese economy**, **AI investments**, and **digital currencies**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Volatility and Adjustments** - The tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve may lead to a market adjustment, with the Nasdaq index potentially adjusting by 5%-7% and high-valuation stocks by 10%-30% [1][2][12] - Digital currencies may experience a pullback of 20%-30% due to liquidity constraints [1][2] 2. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations** - The probability of a rate cut in December is approximately 30%, with expectations of two rate cuts next year [1][3] - Future policy direction will depend on the new chairperson's preferences regarding rate cuts and balance sheet management [4][5] 3. **AI Investment Bubble Concerns** - Current macroeconomic indicators do not suggest an AI investment bubble, as investment returns remain high and leverage has not significantly increased [6][12] 4. **Discrepancy in Chinese Economic Data** - The difference in performance between Chinese economic data and market results is attributed to high base effects and differing fiscal spending timelines [7][12] - Marginal changes in industrial product prices are crucial for assessing the Chinese economy [7] 5. **Recent Macroeconomic Data Trends** - Recent macroeconomic data has not shown a collapse, influenced by technical disturbances, declining land prices, and changes in government subsidies [8][9] - Consumer data, excluding subsidies, shows a steady upward trend, particularly in mid-to-high-end consumer goods [9] 6. **Challenges Facing Digital Currencies** - Digital currencies face fundamental challenges from quantum computing, although solutions are being explored [10] - The U.S. government plans to introduce a framework for digital currencies, with Bitcoin expected to be included in reserves by 2026 [10] 7. **Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong and A-shares** - Both Hong Kong and A-shares are currently in a phase that presents layout opportunities due to prior adjustments [17][18] - Recommendations include focusing on high-elasticity tech growth sectors and balanced allocations between growth and value stocks [18][20] 8. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook** - The sentiment indicators for Hong Kong stocks indicate a pessimistic phase, suggesting a potential for recovery [19] - The correlation between Hong Kong and U.S. markets exists but is not fully synchronized, allowing for independent market movements [19] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The bond market's insensitivity to stock market adjustments is noted, attributed to liquidity disturbances and changing interest rate expectations [13][14] - The overall performance of the bond market in 2025 has been poor, influenced by fewer than expected rate cuts and uncertainties in monetary policy [14][15] - Recommendations for gold investments suggest maintaining a half-position due to previous overvaluation and potential volatility from geopolitical factors [16] - The need for a balanced approach in investment strategies, focusing on both growth and value sectors, is emphasized for long-term stability [20][21]

廖市无双：上证破趋势，大盘何去何从？20251123 摘要 上证指数跌破 4 月 7 日以来的上升趋势线，确认五浪结构破位及日线 MACD 底背离，预示将进入 ABC 调整结构，需关注调整结构发展及各 指数表现。当前指数在 3,700-3,800 点区域具备较强支撑，包括 3,732 点、3,774 点和 3,702 点等关键点位。 创业板指数自 10 月 17 日以来创新高后随上证指数调整，形成 A 浪下跌。 科创 50 指数呈现 ABC 结构，C 段加速下跌。创业板风险相对较高，需 谨慎对待，而恒生科技和科创 50 指数调整较为充分，无需进一步杀跌。 本周无行业板块上涨，前期强势板块如电芯、基础化工、钢铁、医药、 有色等显著回调，锂矿链条跌幅接近 10%。银行和食品饮料等防御性板 块相对抗跌，银行因前期回调具备防御属性，食品饮料因涨幅小且风险 释放表现稳健。 美联储降息预期减弱导致全球流动性收紧，比特币价格大幅下跌，引发 以其为抵押的经营经理面临流动性紧张，负面影响传导至股票市场。英 伟达财报超预期但应收账款和存货增加引发质疑，可能影响国内科技股。 Q&A 上证指数和上证 50 的近期走势如何，未来可能会 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials released hawkish statements, leading to a decrease in gold prices initially, but a subsequent dovish comment from New York Fed's Williams reversed the trend, causing gold prices to recover [1] - The COMEX gold futures fell by 0.77% to $4062.8 per ounce for the week, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) dropped by 2.85% and the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 4.63% [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, which raised concerns about inflation and prompted hawkish comments from multiple Fed officials [1] Group 2 - Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Metals, noted that the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are positively correlated with gold prices, as a lower interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [2] - Despite the increase in jobs, the unemployment rate slightly rose, and the August data was revised to show negative growth, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market that further strengthen the necessity for rate cuts [2]

每日经济新闻 Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wyckoff指出，这些发言确实在早些时候给黄金市场的多头提供了一些友好 的素材，美联储的降息预期往往与黄金价格正相关，因为低利率环境会削弱持有无息黄金的机会成本， 同时放大其作为通胀对冲工具的价值。在当前美国经济数据混杂的背景下，9月份就业岗位虽超预期增 加，但失业率仍小幅上升，且8月份数据被下修为负增长，劳动力市场的疲软迹象进一步强化了降息的 必要性。 11月17日-11月21日，上周周初美联储官员连续释放鹰派言论，非农就业数据高于预期，降息预期降 温，金价震荡走低，随着周五纽约联储威廉姆斯做出鸽派发言，金价止跌回升。截至收盘，COMEX黄 金期货周度跌0.77%报4062.8美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度跌2.85%，黄金股 ETF（159562）周度跌4.63%。 消息面上，上周美国公布9月非农就业报告，就业人口增加11.9万人，增幅远超市场预期。由于通胀担 忧，多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，指出美联储在考虑进一步降息时需保持谨慎。美乌举行会晤，双方 就一项"有望被俄乌双方接受的和平计划"展开讨论，地缘政治风险现缓和信 ...

注意文章更新具有时效性，行情瞬息万变，注意关注更多及时行情变动。 早盘操作思路： 来源：黄金喊单王-王杨黄金 黄金现在还是继续震荡，周末众多消息并未刺激黄金走出震荡，看来市场还需要新的刺激，黄金避险情绪稍微黄金，不过美联储降息预期有点升 温，所以黄金当下还是继续震荡，那么早盘继续高位承压空。 黄金1小时还是来回大区间震荡，黄金1小时均线来回上下穿梭，这也是震荡行情的典型标志，黄金当下多空势均力敌，没有单边趋势，不过4110 依然是短期黄金反弹的重要阻力，黄金早盘反弹承压4110下还是继续逢高空。 行情瞬息万变，当下黄金还是继续震荡，整体还是继续偏空，黄金反弹就是继续高空为主，黄金多头不突破站稳4110，那么黄金空头就还大有可 为，反弹就是继续给空的机会。 黄金4102空，保护4115，目标4050-4030； 免责申明:以上纯属个人观 ...

来源：央视财经 欧洲方面，市场较为关注的是英国将于本周公布2025年秋季预算案，预计英国财政大臣里夫斯将宣布增 税等多项措施。随着英国10月通胀率回落至3.6%，市场对英国央行12月降息的预期持续升温。当地时 间本周四，欧洲央行还将发布10月货币政策会议纪要，此前，多数欧洲央行官员纷纷表示对当前的货币 政策感到满意。目前市场普遍预期，欧洲央行12月议息会议仍将维持利率不变。 【#国际金价跌了##美联储将公布经济状况褐皮书#】上周，市场对于美股科技股估值过高的担忧依旧挥 之不去，加之，美联储降息预期骤降令市场承压，拖累美国三大股指表现。其中，道指全周下跌 1.91%，标普500指数下跌1.95%，纳指下跌2.74%。 本周新西兰和韩国央行将公布利率决议 上周国际油价下跌 本周，新西兰央行和韩国央行将分别公布最新利率决议。新西兰央行10月曾宣布将基准利率下调50个基 点以刺激经济，并不排除未来进一步降息的可能。摩根大通此前预计，新西兰央行将在本月和明年2月 降息两次。对此，我们也会保持密切关注。 上周国际金价小幅下跌 金价方面，美元指数维持在近半年来高位，推高了黄金的持有成本，加上美联储12月降息前景不明朗， 令 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures opened higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.72%, Dow Jones futures up 0.4%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.55% [2][3] - Gold and silver prices saw a notable increase in the spot market, with gold at $4074.9 per ounce (up 0.25%) and silver at $50.251 per ounce (up 0.52%) [3][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have surged, with a 69.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, up from below 40% previously [4] Geopolitical Developments - Significant progress was reported in US-Ukrainian talks in Geneva, with Ukrainian President Zelensky stating that substantial dialogue has taken place [5][6] - The situation in the Middle East escalated with the death of a senior Hezbollah leader in an Israeli airstrike, marking a significant shift in military actions [10][11] Peace Negotiations and Plans - A modified peace plan from European nations was presented, opposing US proposals that limit Ukraine's military capabilities and territorial concessions [7] - German Chancellor Merz criticized the financial aspects of the US's new 28-point plan as "unacceptable," particularly regarding the use of frozen Russian assets [8][9]