人民银行持续呵护市场流动性，近日资金面边际转松，各期限资金利率多数下行。11月20日，上海银行 间同业拆放利率（Shibor）多数品种呈现下行走势，其中隔夜Shibor下行5.6个基点报1.364%；7天Shibor 下行2.7个基点报1.46%。截至11月20日15时15分，DR007加权平均利率报1.5392%，高于政策利率水 平。 "自10月20日LPR公布以来，7天期逆回购利率作为政策利率，一直保持稳定，这意味着11月LPR报价的 定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王 青指出。 北京商报讯（记者廖蒙）新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银 行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上 LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效，两大报价均与前值保持一致。 | | 货币政策司 | | 民 视 行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | ...

本月LPR保持不变，整体符合市场预期。同日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3000亿元7 天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.4%。公开市场当日有1900亿元逆回购到期，整体实现净投放1100亿 元。 人民银行持续呵护市场流动性，近日资金面边际转松，各期限资金利率多数下行。11月20日，上海银行 间同业拆放利率（Shibor）多数品种呈现下行走势，其中隔夜Shibor下行5.6个基点报1.364%；7天Shibor 下行2.7个基点报1.46%。截至11月20日15时15分，DR007加权平均利率报1.5392%，高于政策利率水 平。 "自10月20日LPR公布以来，7天期逆回购利率作为政策利率，一直保持稳定，这意味着11月LPR报价的 定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王 青指出。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国 银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以 上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效，两大报 ...

2025.11. 20 本文字数：913，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月，两个期限品种的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价保持不变，符合市场预期，这也是LPR连续6 个月保持不变。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年 期以上LPR为3.5%。 银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净 息差为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民 融资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并 非当务之急。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来 出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，宏观经济走势稳中偏强，逆周期调节需求相应下 降，货币政策保持较强定力。 但受内外部多重因素影响，近期经济增长动能有所回落，其中，10月国内投资、消费、工业生产等 宏观数据下行势头引发关注，出口增速由正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to navigate a landscape characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, with various factors influencing the market dynamics, including economic recovery, monetary policy adjustments, and fiscal measures [1][21]. Interest Rate Bonds - The bond market is anticipated to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" pattern, with limited downward space for interest rates but persistent fluctuations [2][3]. - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a focus on obtaining stable coupon income and increasing exposure to equity assets to enhance overall returns [2]. - Predictions indicate that the ten-year government bond yield may drop to around 1.6% in the first quarter but could rebound to approximately 1.9% later in the year due to economic recovery and inflation expectations [3]. - A bullish steepening of the yield curve is expected, with the ten-year government bond yield potentially declining to a range of 1.2% to 1.5% [4]. - The N-shaped interest rate trend is forecasted, with significant adjustments expected in the first quarter and the second half of the year, while the second quarter may present favorable trading opportunities [5]. Credit Bonds - The credit bond market is expected to exhibit low spreads, with a shift from simple "downward" strategies to more refined approaches focusing on regions, industries, and individual credits [6][8]. - If the wide credit process progresses smoothly, credit risks may ease, leading to a reduction in bond defaults [8]. - The focus should be on mid to long-term credit bonds, particularly those with potential for spread compression, while avoiding low-quality private real estate bonds and high-risk regional bonds [9][11]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential rate cuts and innovative tools to support liquidity and the yield curve [12][13]. - The window for rate cuts is anticipated to open between late 2025 and early 2026, with limited pressure on banks' net interest margins due to changing deposit structures [14]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role, with a focus on targeted support rather than broad-based expansion [16]. External Environment - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential is a key external factor, with expectations that the spread between ten-year U.S. and Chinese bonds will continue to narrow [18]. - The U.S. bond market is projected to experience a flattening yield curve, with ten-year U.S. Treasury yields expected to exceed 2.2% due to persistent inflation and employment recovery [19]. - Attention should be paid to the "local divergence" between China and overseas experiences, particularly regarding the impact of government leverage and inflation on interest rates [20].

图源：中国人民银行官网 自2025年5月下调后，LPR已连续6个月"按兵不动"。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布贷款市场报价利率（LPR）：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两个期限LPR均 与上月持平。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融中场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 根国生姿 | | | ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that nearly 15 trillion yuan in new RMB loans were issued in the first ten months of this year, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - The total RMB loan balance reached 270.61 trillion yuan by the end of October, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, while the social financing scale stood at 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year [1] Loan Structure - Corporate loans, particularly medium to long-term loans, have seen significant growth, with an increase of 13.79 trillion yuan in loans to enterprises, making them the main contributor to loan growth [2] - Medium to long-term loans accounted for over 60% of the new corporate loans, with an increase of 8.32 trillion yuan [2] Loan Distribution - By the end of October, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 35.77 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector reached 14.97 trillion yuan, up by 7.9% [3] - The China Construction Bank aims to support new industrialization with a financing target of over 5 trillion yuan for the manufacturing sector over the next three years [3] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the same rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [4] - The People's Bank of China has been broadening the space for counter-cyclical monetary policy, leading to a sustained low financing cost for enterprises [4] Bond Financing - In the first ten months, the total social financing increment was 30.9 trillion yuan, with net financing from corporate bonds at 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year [5] - Government bond net financing reached 11.95 trillion yuan, up by 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a rising share of government and corporate bond financing in new social financing [5] Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, focusing on supporting major national strategies and key areas of economic development [6]

银行息差缩窄压力仍然不小，当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。三季度末商业银行净息差 为1.42%，尽管与二季度末持平，但较去年四季度末下降了10个基点。 招联首席研究员董希淼认为，综合融资成本下降是货币条件比较宽松的重要体现。近年来企业和居民融 资成本低位下行，说明货币条件比较宽松、资金供给比较充裕。在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务 之急。 央行在三季度货币政策执行报告专栏中提出，"保持合理的利率比价关系"。董希淼认为，这表明，央行 将审慎对待利率变化，引导市场减少资金空转套利，畅通货币政策传导，增强政策的有效性。未来一段 时间，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。过度放松货币金融条件可 能产生的一些负面效果也需要关注，比如资金空转、资本市场波动加大等。因此，市场应降低对下一步 大幅度降准降息的预期。 11月，两个期限品种的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）报价保持不变，符合市场预期，这也是LPR连续6个 月保持不变。 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以 上LPR为3.5%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为， ...

11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。至此，LPR两个品种报价已连续6个月保持不 变。 多位受访的业内人士指出，本月LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。展望未来，适度宽松的货币政策虽还有 一定实施空间，但边际效率已经明显下降。市场对未来大幅度降准降息的预期有所减弱。下一阶段，货 币政策或将更加注重精准、协同和均衡。 缺乏下调动力 LPR报价继续"按兵不动" LPR报价持续"按兵不动"，业内人士指出，这符合市场预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价基础的7 天期逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR报价较难下降。 东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青指出，尽管近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主 要中长端市场利率稳中有降，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有下行，但在商业银行净息差处于历史 最低点的背景下，当前报价行也缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 "6月以来LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是受年初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快 发展等推动。"王青指出， ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's October monetary policy meeting minutes indicate a divergence among officials regarding potential interest rate cuts in December due to moderate economic expansion and a cooling labor market without sharp deterioration [1] Group 1 - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion [1] - The labor market is gradually cooling but has not shown signs of sharp deterioration [1] - There is a noticeable division among Federal Reserve officials on whether to implement further rate cuts in December [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will have 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations due this week, and there will be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Thursday. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - Yesterday, the macro news was calm, and the stock index showed a differentiated trend. Small and medium - cap stocks were relatively weak, while large - cap stocks were more resilient. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving, lacking a core driving force. The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards. Short - term market differences will be digested during the volatility, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42%, down 10.66bp; DR007 closed at 1.51%, down 1.08bp; GC001 closed at 1.63%, down 6.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.51%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58%, unchanged; LPR 5 - year was 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40%, down 0.30bp; 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, up 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.12%, down 1.00bp [3]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due, resulting in a net investment of 6262 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.44% to 4588.3; the SSE 50 rose 0.58% to 3020.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.4% to 7122.7; the CSI 1000 fell 0.82% to 7387.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 17259 billion yuan, a decrease of 2002 billion yuan from the previous day. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers [5]. - The IF contract had a trading volume of 122613, up 0.6%, and an open interest of 272167, down 2.3%; the IH contract had a trading volume of 53539, down 2.2%, and an open interest of 95237, down 2.5%; the IC contract had a trading volume of 132592, down 1.4%, and an open interest of 248512, down 2.2%; the IM contract had a trading volume of 227467, up 4.5%, and an open interest of 364139, up 0.6% [5]. 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.46%, 6.12%, 3.69%, and 3.73% respectively; the IH premium rates were 14.19%, 3.77%, 1.39%, and 1.38% respectively; the IC premium rates were 15.75%, 11.61%, 10.48%, and 11.09% respectively; the IM premium rates were - 7.88%, 14.66%, 13.00%, and 12.79% respectively [7].