Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the metals sector, it points out that copper's long - term fundamentals are good but short - term prices are affected by inventory structure and geopolitical risks; in the agricultural products sector, it mentions that factors such as supply and demand, policies, and seasonal patterns influence the prices of various products. Summary by Catalog Daily Selections - Alumina: The market maintains a wide - range shock. The core contradiction lies in the tug - of - war between policy expectations and the weak fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to oscillate around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton [2]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the spot price is under pressure. It is expected to operate stably with a downward trend [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal trading in Shanxi has warmed up, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the replenishment demand, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [4]. - Eggs: The egg price has stabilized and increased, and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The futures price is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly stronger state in the short term [5]. Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend. The main stock index futures contracts had different trends, with IH2603 falling and the other three rising. The basis of the main contracts also showed different states [6][7]. - News: Domestically, the central bank adjusted interest rates and increased the quota of some re - loans. Overseas, the US imposed tariffs on some semiconductors [7][8]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment [8]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH on dips. For small - and medium - cap indexes, use bull spreads and control risks [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [11]. - Policy: The central bank cut interest rates on re - loans and rediscounts, and mentioned that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12]. - Operation Suggestions: Unilateral strategies suggest continued waiting, and curve strategies tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term perspective [13]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data, such as the decline in the number of initial jobless claims and the increase in overseas holdings of US Treasury bonds, affected market expectations. The US government's decision on tariffs and geopolitical tensions also influenced precious metal prices [14][17]. - Future Outlook: Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to operate strongly, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [17][18]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index and the US West route index showed different trends [19]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different performances [19]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price entering the downward cycle pressured the futures [19]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is affected by factors such as inventory structure and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot inventory continues to accumulate, and the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [25][27]. - Aluminum: The price is at a high level and oscillates. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory is decreasing, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31][33]. - Zinc: The LME's suspension of zinc delivery from South Korea Zinc boosted the price. The fundamentals show that the supply is tight at the mine end, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term [34][37]. - Tin: The market sentiment has declined, and the price is at a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [37][42]. - Nickel: The price is strong, affected by Indonesia's policy on nickel ore. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand varies in different sectors. It is recommended to operate within a range [42][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates strongly, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate strongly [45][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price oscillates and adjusts. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive spreads between months [49][53]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to production cuts and demand recovery [53][55]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is at a low - level shock. It is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak pattern in January, and it is necessary to pay attention to polysilicon production changes [56][58]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The market is in a weak supply - demand state during the off - season, and the price oscillates. It is expected that the steel price will move within a range [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [60][62]. - Coking Coal: The price in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the trading has warmed up. It is recommended to go long on dips before the Spring Festival and pay attention to arbitrage [63][67]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage [68][69]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation improves marginally. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [70][72]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese ore has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [73][76]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks drivers, and the soybean meal oscillates. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [77][78]. - Live Pigs: The price returns to the oscillating pattern. The supply is relatively abundant in January, and it is recommended to short on rallies after stabilization [79][80]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment and policy releases [81][83]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price falls, and the domestic market focuses on stocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84][85]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is stable, and the domestic price stops falling and stabilizes. The short - term price may be adjusted [88]. - Eggs: The price is stable and rising, and the supply - demand pressure is not large. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [92]. - Oils: Palm oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. Different oils have different price trends and influencing factors [93][95]. - Red Dates: The market trading is weak, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [96]. - Apples: The market sentiment cools down, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [97]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The high valuation and downstream production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 7000 yuan and consider low - long positions in the medium - term [98][99]. - PTA: Similar to PX, it is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long when the price is below 5000 yuan and consider positive spreads [100][101]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [102][103]. - Bottle - grade Chips: The supply and demand both decrease in January, and the price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing margin range [104][105]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure due to seasonal inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4000 yuan for EG2605 and consider reverse spreads [106][107]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation improves slightly, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to short BR2603 on rallies and pay attention to the narrowing spread between EB and BZ [108]. - Styrene: The price is short - term strong, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short EB03 on rallies and reduce the processing margin [109][110]. - LLDPE: The basis remains stable, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [111][112]. - PP: The number of maintenance increases, and the price is strong. It is recommended to hold the position when the PDH profit expands [113]. - Methanol: The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see [113]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the price is expected to operate stably with a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [114][115]. - PVC: The price fluctuates due to export policies. It is recommended to wait and see on short positions [116][117]. - Urea: The price center moves up due to agricultural demand and inventory reduction. It is expected to be strong in the short term [118][119]. - Soda Ash: The production capacity recovers, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [120][123]. - Glass: The sentiment declines, and the sales rate continues to fall. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term [120][124]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [124][126]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support range and consider long - short arbitrage [127][130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand, price trends, and market sentiment of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and bond futures; in the commodity sector, it covers metals, energy, and chemical products; in the agricultural products sector, it includes grains, oils, and fruits. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily精选 - **PVC**: After the fading of emotional influence, both futures and spot prices declined. With increasing supply expectations and weak demand, the market is in an oversupply situation and may face a downward adjustment. [2] - **Iron Ore**: The price first rose and then fell, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It will gradually shift from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with high - inventory pressure on the upside and steel mill restocking expectations on the downside. [3] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, high prices and policy supply supplements suppress the upward space. [4] - **Silver**: Tight inventory boosts the price. After the end of the short - term "irrational" rise driven by funds, attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. [5] 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, A - share major indexes showed mixed performance. The technology sector was strong, and there was a divergence between large - and small - cap indexes. The four major stock index futures contracts also had mixed performances, with some in a premium or discount state. [6][7] - **News**: Domestically, the warehouse index in December 2025 showed an upward trend; overseas, the Bank of Japan was optimistic about the economic outlook. [7][8] - **Funding**: On January 8, the trading volume in the A - share market was stable, and the central bank conducted net capital injections. [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the index breaks through the previous high, it is recommended to take partial profits on single - side long positions in futures, hold bullish spread portfolios, and consider constructing covered call portfolios at low prices. [8] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. [9] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. However, attention should be paid to the possible impact of increasing leverage on liquidity. [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: After three consecutive days of decline, the bond market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see for single - side strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term for curve strategies. [10][11] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The inflation expectations in the US increased, and the unemployment situation showed some changes. The adjustment of the weights of major commodity indexes led to short - term selling of gold and silver, but the decline was limited due to geopolitical risks and other factors. [12][13][14] - **Outlook**: The US economy shows structural differentiation, and the market's expectation of monetary policy easing may increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is advisable to maintain a light - position long strategy above $70. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term. [14][15][16] 3.4 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index Performance**: As of January 5, the SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West route index fell. As of December 26, the SCFI composite index rose. [17] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The Eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.5, and the US December manufacturing PMI was 47.9. [17] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the spot price entered a downward trend. It is expected to decline in the short - term. [17] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: As of January 8, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market supply was sufficient while high prices suppressed consumption. [17] - **Macro**: The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and geopolitical issues affected the market sentiment. [18] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level. The electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. [19] - **Demand**: The copper rod production rate was significantly lower than the seasonal level, and the downstream demand was weak. [19] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased. [21] - **Logic**: The short - term price may be overvalued, but the medium - to long - term fundamentals are good. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. [22] 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: On January 8, the spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly decreased. The supply was gradually becoming more abundant, and the price was under pressure. [22] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased slightly. Considering the losses of some small and medium - sized plants, the production may decrease slightly in January. [23] - **Inventory**: The port, factory, and electrolytic aluminum plant inventories all increased. [23] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [24] 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: On January 8, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the spot market was inactive. [24] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased. In the coming year, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may decline. [25] - **Demand**: The processing product's weekly production rates were differentiated, and the overall demand was weak. [26] - **Inventory**: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in domestic inventories. [26] - **Logic**: The short - term funds showed a retreat sign. The macro environment is positive, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. [27] 3.5.4 Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, but the import window might open. The demand was relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [31][32][34] - **Tin**: The price fell from a high level. The supply from Myanmar may increase, and the demand in the South China region was relatively stable. It is recommended to wait and see. [35][36][38] - **Nickel**: The price dropped significantly. The supply and demand were both weak, and the market was affected by news from Indonesia. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices. [38][39][40] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the demand in the off - season was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [41][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuated widely. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was resilient but faced a decline in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see. [45][46][47] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price limit - down. The supply was expected to decrease, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [48][49][50] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price decreased due to the influence of polysilicon. The supply and demand were both weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply reduction situation. [50][51][52] 3.6 Black Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price was weak. The cost pushed up the steel price, but the profit margin decreased. [52] - **Supply**: The production increased slightly, but the increase was limited considering the off - season demand. [53] - **Demand**: The demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory entered the accumulation stage. [53][54] - **View**: The steel price is expected to oscillate within a certain range, with raw material prices providing support. [54] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price also declined. The demand was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. [55][56] - **View**: The iron ore market will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with price fluctuations within a certain range. [56] 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price in Shanxi was weak, while the Mongolian coal price followed the futures. [57][60] - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. [58][59] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased, and the coking plant's production also increased. [58][59] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [60] 3.6.4 Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price first rose and then fell, and the fourth - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. [61][64] - **Supply**: The coking plant's production increased. [62] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased. [62] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [64] 3.6.5 Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The price decreased significantly. The supply was stable, and the demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had certain support. It is expected to oscillate within a range. [65][66] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price decreased. The supply was at a relatively low level, and the demand was stable. The manganese ore price provided support. It is expected to oscillate widely. [67][68][69] 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [70] - **Fundamentals**: The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans to China may decrease, and the soybean harvest in Brazil is in the early stage with good yields. [71] - **View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate within a range, affected by the USDA report and domestic supply - demand. [72] 3.7.2 Other Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The spot price was stable. After the New Year, the demand decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The futures price may face pressure. [73][74] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. High prices and policy supplements suppress the upward space. [75][76][77] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making season is ending, and the focus is on the northern hemisphere. The domestic price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [78] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price may oscillate, and the domestic cotton price is expected to be bullish in the short - term but may face a callback. [80][81] - **Eggs**: The supply may decrease, and the demand is cautious. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [82][83] - **Oils**: The prices of different oils showed different trends. Palm oil may break through after the MPOB report; soybean oil may decline; and rapeseed oil is affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations and is weak in the short - term. [84][86][87] - **Jujubes**: The market trading was light, and the futures price decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds. [89] - **Apples**: The price was under pressure. The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions. [90] 3.8 Energy Chemicals 3.8.1 PX - **Spot and Profit**: The price decreased, and the profit margin was compressed. [91] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was at a high level, and the demand was weak. [91][93] - **View**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may be bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [93] 3.8.2 Other Energy Chemical Products - **PTA**: The futures price decreased, and the supply - demand was expected to weaken in the first quarter. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate in the short - term, and go long at low prices in the medium - term. [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. [96] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy. [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and conduct reverse spreads. [100] - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory, but the demand has slightly improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. [101][102] - **Styrene**: The price is supported in the short - term but may face inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see and short the processing fee at high prices. [103][104] - **LLDPE**: The supply is expected to decrease marginally, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term. [105] - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. It is recommended to hold the profitable PDH positions. [106] - **Methanol**: The demand - side maintenance increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [106] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak and stable. [107][108] - **PVC**: The price decreased due to weak supply - demand and high inventory. It may face a downward adjustment. [109][110] - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, affected by the Indian tender and cost factors. [111][112] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][115] - **Glass**: The price is strong, supported by cost and winter - storage policies. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][116] - **Natural Rubber**: The price declined due to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. [116][118][119] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price continued to rise, although the fundamental support was limited. It is recommended not to short in the short - term. [119][120][121]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market situation is complex, with different sectors showing various trends. Some sectors are affected by strong macro - expectations and weak fundamental realities, such as aluminum. Others are influenced by supply - demand imbalances, policy changes, and external events [2][25]. - In general, many sectors are in a state of volatility, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors in each sector, such as inventory changes, downstream consumption, and policy adjustments [2][70][84]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract operating between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [2]. - **Methanol**: Due to device disruptions, the price has strengthened. The port may face inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. Pay attention to inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation. Pay attention to iron water trends, steel mill restocking rhythms, and negotiation situations [3][55]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market, and the macro and the futures market resonate. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [4][72]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term negative factors are exhausted. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread combinations and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, it is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. After the New Year, pay attention to the capital situation. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - The price dropped sharply after a high - level rise. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, the price has an upward space. Long positions can be arranged after the callback [13][14]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is in a consolidation stage, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to present an oscillatory pattern in the short term [16]. 3.3 Commodity Futures 3.3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The short - term price may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [20]. - **Alumina**: The policy is difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [22]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to maintain high - level wide - range oscillations. Long positions can be arranged at low prices [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to continue high - level range oscillations. An arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and short AL03 can be considered [28]. - **Zinc**: The short - term price may oscillate. It is recommended to hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [31]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback [39]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. Pay attention to nickel ore news and steel mill production reduction implementation [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations before the New Year. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in high - level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production reduction and price adjustment acceptance [49]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in low - level oscillations. Pay attention to the implementation of production reduction [51]. 3.3.2 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: It continues to reduce production and inventory. The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [53]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to cautiously go long for short - term operations [55]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to short at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [59]. - **Coke**: It is recommended to short the 2605 contract at high prices unilaterally and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and short coke [61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5500 - 5700. Pay attention to coal price changes [64]. - **Silicon Manganese**: It is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [67]. 3.3.3 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot is loose. It is recommended to operate cautiously [70]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The short - term price is expected to be strong [72]. - **Corn**: The short - term price may rise due to the resonance of futures and cash, but the sustainability of the rise is limited. Pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [75]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is in a low - level oscillating platform. The domestic market should pay attention to the actual demand after the spot price rises. It is recommended to maintain a rebound - shorting idea [76]. - **Cotton**: The short - term cotton price may oscillate steadily and strongly [78]. - **Egg**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [81]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may oscillate weakly; soybean oil may oscillate in a narrow range; rapeseed oil may test the pressure level of 9200 yuan [84][85]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [86]. - **Apple**: The short - term market is in a game between the scarcity of delivery fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. Pay attention to the actual inventory reduction progress [88]. 3.3.4 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [90]. - **PTA**: It is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions, short aggressively in the short term, and go long at low prices in the medium term [92]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to short when the processing fee is high [93]. - **Bottle Chips**: The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and short the processing fee at high prices [96]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increase has resistance. It is recommended to conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 at high prices [97]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in low - level oscillations. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [98]. - **Styrene**: The rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short at 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [100]. - **LLDPE**: It is recommended to go long the 2605 contract in the short term [101]. - **PP**: It is recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [102]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the reduction of MTO05 [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price may continue to decline. It is in a weak supply - demand pattern [104]. - **PVC**: It is expected to rebound and then weaken. The supply - demand is in an excess pattern [106]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [108]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see [109]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is recommended to hold short positions at 15700 [113]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in wide - range oscillations. It is expected to oscillate between 11200 - 12000 in the short term [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements for each sector, offering trading strategies based on the analysis [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory [Daily精选] - Tin: Fundamentals remain strong, with tight tin ore supply and stable demand in some sectors. Prices are expected to remain strong, suggesting a long - position strategy [2]. - LLDPE: Linear in North China is near the risk - free basis. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand has reached its peak. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the industrial chain [3]. - Coking Coal: The futures rebounded, with spot prices fluctuating. Supply may decrease at the end of the year, and demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [4]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Palm oil export is weak, while soybean oil may be boosted by crude oil, and rapeseed oil may find support in a certain price range [5]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, there may be a correction, and a buy - on - dip strategy is recommended [7]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures] - The stock market showed a defensive style, with the dividend sector rising. The four major stock index futures contracts declined. The market lacks an upward driving force, and a cautious waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [9][10][11]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Bond Futures] - Bond futures closed mostly higher. The central bank's operations have made the capital market loose. There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands. A short - term shock - based strategy is recommended [12][13]. [Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals] - Precious metals rose and then fell. US inflation slowed down, and European monetary policies diverged. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, silver to wait and see, and platinum and palladium to buy on dips [14][17][18]. [Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line)] - The SCFIS European line index showed a mixed trend. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. [Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper] - Copper prices are oscillating. The probability of interest rate cuts has slightly increased, and inventories are accumulating. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. A short - term long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [25][27]. - Aluminum: The CPI data has strengthened the interest - rate cut logic. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and a long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [33][34]. - Zinc: The zinc price is oscillating. The supply is gradually tightening, and the demand is stable. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended, and a cross - market reverse arbitrage position should be held [34][37]. - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain strong. A long - position strategy is recommended [38][41]. - Nickel: The low valuation and news have driven the price to rebound. The price is expected to oscillate and repair, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114,000 - 118,000 [41][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [45][47]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing slowly. A short - term wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [49][52]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen due to the expected increase in warehouse receipts. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating and rising. The supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [54][55]. [Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - Steel] - Steel prices are oscillating within a range. The cost is stable, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [56][57]. - Iron Ore: The futures price rebounded. The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. A long - position strategy for the 2605 contract and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [58][60]. - Coking Coal: The futures price rebounded. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [61][64]. - Coke: The futures price rebounded. The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the supply and demand are weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [65][66]. [Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - Meal] - The spot price of soybean meal is falling, and the supply pressure is still there. The price of rapeseed meal is stable, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [67][69]. - Live Pigs: The supply pressure is limited, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic [70][72]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [73][74]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended [76][77]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price rise has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the resistance level [77][78]. - Eggs: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply is still abundant. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [80][81]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to support levels [82][85]. - Red Dates: The downward trend has slowed, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to consumption and inventory [86]. - Apples: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A long - position liquidation strategy is recommended [87]. [Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - PX] - PX prices are rising. The short - term upward driving force is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. A rolling long - position strategy is recommended [88][89]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in December and loose in the first quarter. A rolling long - position strategy and a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [90][91]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. A strategy similar to PTA and a short - position strategy for high processing fees are recommended [92][93]. - Bottle Chip: The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is supported. Attention should be paid to device restarts and new device production [94][95]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand is weak. A short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and an option - selling strategy is recommended [96]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [97][98]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price driving force is limited. A short - term weak - oscillation strategy is recommended [99][100]. - LLDPE: The North China basis is near the risk - free level. The supply is increasing, and the demand has reached its peak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [101]. - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the profit of PDH [102]. - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening. The overseas supply is decreasing, and the domestic supply and demand are increasing. A strategy of paying attention to the narrowing of MTO05 is recommended [102][103]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak [103][105]. - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [106]. - Soda Ash: The production is high, and the supply is excessive. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [107][109]. - Glass: The spot price has stopped falling, and there is no continuous upward driving force. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [107][109]. - Natural Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [109][111]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost has fallen, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 [111][114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures products across multiple industries, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each product's market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends are detailed, with corresponding investment strategies proposed based on these analyses. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Tin: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in some areas like South China shows resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips. [2][36][39] - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening, and trading is fair. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market has rebounded from an oversold position. Short - term rebound is expected. [3][61][63] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils like palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have their own market characteristics and price trends. [4][80][82] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: A - share markets showed a mixed trend. Index futures declined, and the basis of expiring contracts converged naturally. [8][9] - News: Domestic fiscal revenue data was released, and overseas trade frictions emerged. [9][10] - Capital Flow: A - share trading volume was stable, and the central bank conducted net reverse - repo withdrawals. [10] - Investment Strategy: Given the unclear market trend, it is advisable to wait and see. [10] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with long - term bonds experiencing significant gains. [11] - Capital Flow: The central bank conducted reverse - repo operations, resulting in net withdrawals. [12] - Investment Strategy: The short - term upward trend is not solid. It is recommended to treat the market as a shock, with short - term trading being cautious. [13] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market: Fed officials signaled a dovish stance, driving the price of precious metals higher. Silver reached a new high. [14][15] - Outlook: Gold is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, while silver may face regulatory risks due to over - buying. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the long term. [16][17] 3.4 Shipping Index (European Routes) - Index: SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. [18] - Fundamentals: Container shipping capacity increased, while demand in some regions was weak. [18] - Logic: The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [18][19] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Inventories increased, and spot trading was average. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Alumina: The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with a reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. [23][25] - Aluminum: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support at 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [25][28] - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with a reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [29][31] - Zinc: The price center has adjusted downward, and the supply pattern is gradually tightening. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 22850 - 22950 yuan/ton. [32][35] - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions. [36][39] - Nickel: The price is expected to recover slightly in the short term, with a reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [39][42] - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [43][45] - Lithium Carbonate: The price rose significantly due to news, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions. [47][50] - Polysilicon: The futures price rose to a new high, but the supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a reference range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. [53][54] 3.6 Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with 5 - month contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils focusing on the 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton ranges respectively. [55][57] - Iron Ore: The price is expected to rebound, with a recommended long - position strategy for the 2605 contract in the 730 - 800 yuan/ton range. [58][60] - Coking Coal: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [61][63] - Coke: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [64][66] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybean market lacks highlights, and the domestic soybean meal market has pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of a decline in the 1 - 5 positive spread. [67][69] - Live Pigs: The market has a sentiment of withholding sales, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the epidemic. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to adjust narrowly. [70][71] - Corn: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and downstream replenishment. [72][74] - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to be weak. [75] - Cotton: The US cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price increase is expected to slow down. It is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 14050 - 14100 yuan/ton. [76][78] - Eggs: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [79] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils have their own market characteristics. [4][80][82] - Red Dates: The new - year supply has a slight reduction, and the demand needs to be released. The futures price is expected to be weak, and the spot price is stable. [84] - Apples: The market is light, and it is recommended to close long positions. [85] 3.8 Energy Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at a low level. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton range. [87][88] - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the medium - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton range and consider a long - position strategy for the TA5 - 9 spread. [89][90] - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. It is recommended to take a similar strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies. [91][92] - Bottle Chip: The inventory decline supports the processing margin. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart and commissioning of devices. It is recommended to sell the PR2602 - P - 5500 option on rallies. [93][94] - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell the EG2605 - C - 4100 option on rallies. [95][97] - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has limited downward space. It is expected to fluctuate in the 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton range. [98] - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price has limited upward drive. It is expected to fluctuate in the 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton range. [99][100] - LLDPE: The trading has weakened, and it is recommended to wait and see. [101][102] - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit. [102] - Methanol: The spot and basis are strengthening, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3][103][104] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. [104][105] - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news, but the supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [106] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, and the price has no continuous upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies after a rebound. [107][109] - Glass: The spot price has stabilized, but the market still has pressure. It is recommended to close long positions. [107][110] - Natural Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate in the 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton range, and it is recommended to wait and see. [110][113] - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 11200 yuan/ton for the BR2602 contract. [113][115]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - **Tin**: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - **Alumina**: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - **Nickel**: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - **Coke**: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - **Pigs**: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - **Sugar**: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - **Jujubes**: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - **Apples**: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - **PTA**: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - **PP**: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - **Methanol**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - **PVC**: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - **Soda Ash**: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - **Natural Rubber**: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Various commodities in the market show different trends and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be strong, some are in a tight - balance or weak situation, and investors should adjust their strategies according to different market conditions [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Daily Selections - **Tin**: With strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong this year. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor US interest rate decisions and supply - side changes [2] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [4] - **Corn**: The supply is increasing, and the futures price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to the continuity of shipments [5] Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The stock index opened low and closed low, while the ChiNext and STAR Market showed an upward trend. The market is affected by domestic and overseas policies and capital flows. Consider a bullish spread strategy on CSI 1000 put options on dips [6][7][8] Bond Futures - Bond futures rose across the board. The market may return to a volatile state in the short - term. Temporarily observe and focus on the central economic work conference. Consider participating in bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [9][10][11] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals generally rose, with silver hitting a new high. Gold may oscillate around $4,200. Be cautious when chasing high on silver. Consider a low - buying strategy for platinum [12][13][14] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index showed an upward trend. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [16] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global inventory imbalance drives price increases. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be closed on rallies. Pay attention to inventory changes and squeeze risks [17][18][21] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Short - term traders can consider light - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options [22][23] - **Aluminum**: Affected by macro factors, prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may pull back. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory changes [24][26][27] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a high level. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [27][28][29] - **Zinc**: TC is falling, and exports are improving the supply - demand structure. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and inventory changes [29][30][33] - **Tin**: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to be strong. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [33][34][37] - **Nickel**: The surplus is narrowing, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to macro and industrial policies [37][38][39] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply pressure is slightly relieved, but demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate and repair. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material prices [40][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of divergence, and prices are expected to oscillate widely. Observe the market [44][45][46] - **Polysilicon**: Affected by the news of the establishment of a storage platform, futures prices are rising. However, demand is weak, and prices may fall. Observe the market [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are falling. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing positions [50][51][52] Black Metals - **Steel**: Raw material price drops drag down steel prices. Consider closing long - rebar short - iron - ore positions and continue to hold the strategy of narrowing the hot - rolled and rebar spread [52][53][56] - **Iron Ore**: Iron production is falling, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies [58][59] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [60][64] - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is an expectation of further cuts. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [65][67][68] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The USDA report is lackluster, and the domestic supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to domestic procurement trends [69][70][71] - **Pig**: Spot prices are stabilizing, and the futures market may be slightly strong. However, the overall supply pattern remains unchanged [72][73][74] - **Corn**: Supply is increasing, and the price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to shipment continuity [75][76] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate weakly. Observe the market [77][78] - **Cotton**: The international cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate within a range [79][80] - **Egg**: Supply is in excess, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside is limited [83] - **Oil**: Palm oil and soybean oil prices are affected by various factors and are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Indian procurement and MPOB reports [84][85] - **Jujube**: Supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to downstream sales [87] - **Apple**: The trading volume is slow, and the price is stable. Observe the market [88] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Supply may shrink in the medium - term, and demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6,600 - 7,000 yuan/ton [89][90] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider a short - term oscillation range of 4,500 - 4,800 yuan/ton and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread [91][92][93] - **Short - Fiber**: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. Follow the PTA strategy and consider compressing processing fees on rallies [94] - **Bottle Chip**: Supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak. The price is expected to follow the cost and compress processing fees. Consider a short - term strategy of compressing processing fees [96][97] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is increasing, but domestic production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing the EG1 - 5 reverse spread [98] - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is limited. It may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Pay attention to domestic device changes [99][100] - **Styrene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [101][102] - **LLDPE**: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Observe the inventory and basis [103] - **PP**: Supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract has pressure. Pay attention to PDH profit expansion [104] - **Methanol**: The basis is strong, and trading is okay. Consider reducing the 05MTO position [104] - **Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. Hold short positions [105][106] - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak at the bottom [108] - **Soda Ash**: Production is high, and supply is in excess. Hold short positions [109][110] - **Glass**: Spot prices are weakening, and the market has pressure. Treat it bearishly [110][111] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The price is expected to oscillate [112][113] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supply in the upstream and mid - stream is abundant, and the price is expected to face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies [114][116]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**:

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - A-shares lack a clear upward trend due to a relatively vacuum macro environment, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be digested through index fluctuations, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Market sentiment is volatile, leading to price fluctuations in various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. 3. Summary by Industry Stock Index - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market divergence will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for further upward movement [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks limit the upside [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: High - level fluctuations are expected due to limited industrial driving forces and repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Prices will fluctuate around the cost line, and attention should be paid to ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to short - term repeated macro sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals, but short - term mine premiums are stable. With planned production cuts in Indonesian intermediate products and slightly improved macro conditions, nickel prices have a short - term repair expectation. The medium - to - long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and social inventories are increasing. Steel mill production cuts in November are limited. Futures prices will fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. Consider light - position participation in long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategies and look for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term supply has not recovered, and unexpected risks have increased, leading to stronger prices. However, due to existing demand pressure, caution is needed when chasing high prices. The medium - to - long - term outlook is positive, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1]. Precious Metals - With the probability of a December interest rate cut rising again and the news of the Ukraine - Russia peace agreement, precious metals are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. New Energy - related Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, while southwest production is weaker than in previous years. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly reducing production. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and terminal installation is increasing in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are fluctuating, and market sentiment has faded due to the long - awaited non - implementation of anti - involution policies [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel Products - **Rebar**: Although the valuation is low, the price increase is limited due to the off - season and a short - term macro vacuum. Consider participating in the virtual value accumulation strategy [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract has upward potential. The basis is acceptable, and consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage or using option strategies [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Direct demand is okay with cost support, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. Coking Products - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Adopt a short - term strategy for unilateral trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash out hedging short positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil**: The rumor of the US delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel raw material subsidies is refuted, which is bullish for US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic high - pressure crushing may lead to a stable - to - weak basis, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of new cotton, but there is no clear upward driver. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply is tight, leading to a price rebound. However, selling pressure is postponed, so be cautious about being bullish and pay attention to farmers' selling and logistics [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US. If there are no significant weather problems, the market will gradually turn to trading the South American new - crop harvest pressure from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. - **Pulp**: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. Demand recovery needs to be verified, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation is weak but has been priced in. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after the sharp decline is low, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Pig**: Spot prices are stable, but there is still room for capacity release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US is increasing sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in the short - term, with the probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan construction demand being falsified, and sufficient supply of Ma Rui crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material cost support is strong, the basis is low, and intermediate inventories may increase [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price of butadiene has limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a positive outlook. However, high inventory restricts price increases, and the synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene prices support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Follows the decline of crude oil prices, with slightly stronger cost support from rising coal prices, but new device production expectations suppress price increases [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Follows cost fluctuations closely [1]. - **Styrene**: Asian benzene prices are weak, and US pure benzene prices are rising. The price will fluctuate [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, with cost - end support [1]. - **PP**: High supply pressure, weak downstream demand improvement, and strong cost support [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and orders are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: There are issues such as delivery schedules, overhauls, and inventory pressures. The absolute price is low, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **PG**: Geopolitical and tariff relations are easing, and the market is in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices and the decline of far - month spreads [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: December price increases are lower than expected, and the peak - season price increase expectation has been priced in early. The monthly shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each sector, and provides corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market showed narrow - range fluctuations. TMT sectors rose, while pro - cyclical sectors pulled back slightly. The four major index futures contracts declined with the index, and the basis discount fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and consider deploying a bull spread of put options in case of a sharp decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The equity market declined, and treasury bond futures oscillated strongly. The bond market was in a state of narrow - range oscillation due to the unclear expectation of loose money. It is recommended to operate within the range for the TL2512 contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Fed officials' attitudes towards the December interest - rate cut were still divided. Precious metals maintained a weak oscillation. In the long - term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to buy on dips for gold and try to go long in small positions for silver [7][8][9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European Line Index and the SCFI Composite Index declined. The futures market rose on the previous day, but the significant decline in the SCFIS European Line after the market may lead to a short - term correction followed by an upward movement. It is expected to oscillate upward in the short - term [10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market was cautious, and copper prices oscillated. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the downstream demand was resilient. The copper price is expected to oscillate within the range of 85000 - 87500 [11][13][14]. - **Alumina**: The market was in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price oscillated at a low level. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [16][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: After breaking through the 22000 mark, it adjusted downward. It is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract ranging from 21400 - 22000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go short on rallies [18][19][20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It adjusted following the aluminum price, and the spot trading was cold at high prices. It is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract ranging from 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [21][22][23]. - **Zinc**: The LME delivery expectation increased, and zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 22000 - 22800 [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply side remained tight, and tin prices oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips after the market sentiment stabilizes [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The market was weak, and the fundamental improvement was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 116000 - 122000 [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - drive weakened, and the raw materials were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12300 - 12700 [33][34][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was strong, and multiple contracts hit the daily limit. It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [37][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand was weak, and the futures price oscillated and declined. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [41][42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It oscillated, and attention should be paid to the organic silicon production cuts. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [43][44][45]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand declined, the hot - rolled coil supply was not cleared, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar converged. It is recommended to try short - selling [46][47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment increased, the arrival decreased, the port inventory rose, and the molten iron increased. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuated, and the demand for replenishment was bearish. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the range of 1100 - 1250, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increase was fully implemented, and the port trading price declined. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the range of 1600 - 1750, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][64]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The monthly report lacked positive factors, and both domestic and foreign markets adjusted. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate widely [65][66][68]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand were loose, and the pig price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread [69][70]. - **Corn**: There was a short - term supply shortage, and the price rebounded and oscillated. Attention should be paid to the selling rhythm and procurement progress [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price was bearish, and the domestic market oscillated at the bottom. It is expected to maintain the bottom - oscillation trend [73][74][75]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic new - cotton harvest was coming to an end. The cotton price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short - term [75][76]. - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable with a slight decline, and the overall pressure was still high. It is recommended to gradually close short positions below 3000 for the 2512 contract [77]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil oscillated and adjusted, and the Dalian palm oil maintained range - bound trading. The soybean oil market was supported. The palm oil is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the soybean oil is expected to maintain a stable supply - demand situation [78][79][80]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price was weak, and the market oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and terminal demand [81]. - **Apples**: There was a small amount of trading of stored apples, and the demand for high - quality apples was good. The price of high - quality apples in the western region was stable, and the inventory of small apples in Shandong began to be traded [83]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The overseas blending - oil demand boosted the short - term trend, but the driving force was limited. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure above 6800 [84][85]. - **PTA**: The blending - oil demand and the cancellation of the Indian BIS certification supported the short - term trend, but the upward driving force was limited. It is expected to oscillate within the range of 4500 - 4800, and the TA1 - 5 spread should be treated with a rolling reverse - spread strategy [86][87]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation was weak, and the processing fee was gradually compressed. It is recommended to do the same as PTA for the unilateral strategy and shrink the processing fee on rallies [88]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in November remained loose, and the price and processing fee followed the cost. It is recommended to do the same as PTA for the unilateral strategy, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate within the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [89][90]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The short - term rigid demand was supported, but the supply was high, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 for the EG2601 contract and conduct a reverse - spread operation on rallies for the EG1 - 5 spread [92]. - **Pure Benzene**: The blending - oil demand provided support, but the supply - demand was loose, and the rebound space was limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the BZ2603 contract [93]. - **Styrene**: The blending - oil demand provided support, but the maintenance might be postponed, and the rebound space was limited. The EB12 price may be strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 [94][95]. - **LLDPE**: The price changed little, and the trading was weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions around 6800 [96]. - **PP**: There were many unexpected maintenance events, and the downward space was limited. It is recommended to wait and see [97]. - **Methanol**: The port market continued to weaken, and the trading was average. Attention should be paid to the 05MTO spread contraction [98][99]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pressure still existed, and it is expected to run weakly [99][100]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand surplus situation remained unchanged, and the market oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening trend [101]. - **Soda Ash**: After the spot price dropped, the alkali factory's pending - delivery days increased, and the market rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the opportunity to short on rallies [102][103]. - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened significantly, and the market was under pressure to correct. It is recommended to treat it weakly in the short - term [102][104]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw materials were firm, and the rubber price rose slightly. It is expected to oscillate within the range, and attention should be paid to the raw - material output in the peak - production season [104][105][106]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The supply - demand boost was limited, and the cost side was weak. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies for the BR2601 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [107][108][109].