电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 12 月 12 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zh ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 12 月 10 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zh ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**:

-4849 .1012 -48倍 | 7 Elite | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 份格号:F025192 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品神 | | | | | | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 股指 | 農汤 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 六川金融 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 至间。 | | | | | | | | 近期市场情绪反复,铜价或震荡运行。 | 農汤 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | 震荡 | F | | | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | 氧化铝 | 格继续围绕成本线附近震荡运行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 美联储内部分歧加大, 近期宏观情绪预计反复。基本面短期国内 | | | | | | | ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial and commodity futures, including financial derivatives (financial futures, precious metals), shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, etc.). It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions based on the analysis of each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro sentiment improved, and stock indices rose across the board. A - shares opened higher and increased in volume. The four major stock index futures rose with the index, and the basis premium narrowed. The market was boosted by domestic economic data and Sino - US trade talks. It is recommended to try light - selling put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The expectation of loose monetary policy strengthened, and the futures were expected to rise. Although the futures closed down, the speech at the Financial Street Forum released a signal of loose money. It is expected that the futures will open higher, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and the market awaited the Fed's decision. The prices of gold and silver fell. In the short term, the market may be volatile, but in the long term, precious metals are expected to have a bull market. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices below $4000 [8][9]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures market was volatile and declined, mainly affected by the reduction of quotations by MSC. However, the SCFIS European line index continued to rise, so a cautious bullish attitude is maintained. It is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US reached a preliminary consensus, and copper prices reached a new high. The macro environment and supply - demand fundamentals supported the price increase. It is recommended to focus on the support at around 86,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading activity increased, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the main contract will fluctuate between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price was strong, and the spot discount widened. The macro environment was mixed, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It is expected that the price will remain in a strong and volatile range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed aluminum and was volatile and strong. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It is recommended that the main contract operate in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price rose slightly due to the squeeze on LME zinc and macro - level benefits. The supply was loose but the subsequent increase might be limited, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in a range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, the price was strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation [27][29][30]. - **Nickel**: The price was volatile, and the fundamentals were weak during the policy window period. The production was high, the demand was average, and the inventory was increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was mainly volatile, and the fundamentals were weak. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was increasing, and the demand was not significantly boosted. It is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price was strong, and the strong demand was gradually realized. The supply - demand gap was expanding in the peak season. It is expected to run strongly, and the main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [37][38][41]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for steel recovered, and the price rose with coking coal. The cost was supported, the supply was affected by environmental protection, the demand was expected to be supported by policies, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply and demand situation was complex, with the decline in arrivals and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand recovered. The supply decreased, and the demand had replenishment needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on the short - term and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase was proposed. The cost was supported, the supply decreased, the demand was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US relations improved, and near - month soybeans had cost support. The price of domestic soybean meal decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans was supported. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will be on a strong trend [53][54][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening boosted the price of pigs. The spot price rose, and the market demand improved. However, there will be an increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in November and December. It is recommended to exit the arbitrage position and re - enter after the spot price stabilizes [56][57]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remained, and the price was weak and volatile. The supply was abundant, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the price was affected by the selling rhythm of farmers and policy support [58][59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 with an upward - revised GDP growth rate, which led to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate rather than decline unilaterally. In the commodity market, different products have different trends due to various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee said the job market is cooling while inflation is rising. Trump plans to increase tariffs on kitchenware and other products starting from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%. Gold prices fluctuated and rose with increased intraday volatility. Short - term gold prices are expected to remain high, but there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [9][10][11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on brand and patented drugs and 25% tariffs on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1, 2025. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, and the August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, and the risk appetite declined. Short - term US stocks are expected to continue to adjust [13][15][16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to the lowest level since July. Fed official Bowman believes that the weakening job market justifies further interest - rate cuts. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, indicating economic resilience and leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor supports the implementation of offshore bond repurchase business in Hong Kong. The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 25, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. The bond market at the end of September is more likely to fluctuate, and it is expected to continue to find the bottom in the first half of October and may stabilize and rise in the second half [22][23][24] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Argentina resumed the export withholding tax on grains and other agricultural products. The USDA will release the quarterly inventory report on September 30. After the end of Argentina's export tax - exemption policy, the prices of domestic and foreign futures contracts stabilized and are expected to resume a fluctuating trend [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 11.31% month - on - month. Argentina resumed the export tax on grains and by - products. The global oil market rebounded, and the trading focus may return to the US biofuel policy. It is recommended to control positions before the National Day holiday [30][31][32] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - September 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of pig iron increased by 0.7% and that of steel products increased by 5.4%. As of September 25, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound before the holiday [33][34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract closed higher. The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the distribution areas is stable. The price is under pressure due to high inventory and weak consumption, and the fundamentals are bearish [37][38] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch by starch sugar products decreased this week. The opening rate of North China's starch plants increased, and the inventory decreased seasonally. The downstream demand is weak, but the price of the 11 - contract has rebounded recently. It is recommended to widen the price difference between corn and starch at low prices [39][40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 24, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises decreased by 9.49%. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and the 11 - contract is relatively strong, while the far - month contracts are weak. The new corn is expected to have a good harvest, and the price is expected to be bearish in the medium term [40][41] 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On September 25, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. The market trading was dull, and the price increase was limited. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the coal price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range around the long - term agreement price [42] 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon made key progress. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. Steel mills maintained low - volume replenishment before the holiday, and the price was supported. The fundamentals are in a dilemma, and the price is expected to remain in a fluctuating range [44] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The price of polysilicon increased this week, and the production in October is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the price is expected to be difficult to fall in October. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, but the component price remained stable. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [45][46][47] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China announced new climate goals. Last week, there were no new furnace openings or closures. The southern silicon plants may reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to increase slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [49][50] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the conditions for 190 mines to resume operations. The nickel ore price is firm, and the MHP price is strong. The global pure nickel inventory is high, and the nickel price lacks upward momentum. However, there are potential supply disturbances, and the low - valued nickel price has long - term bullish allocation value. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [51][52] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 24, the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $40.08 per ton. The downstream enterprises continued to stock up before the holiday, and the lead ingot social inventory continued to decline. The LME lead price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai lead price strengthened. The lead price is expected to fluctuate upward [53][54] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Galvanized sheet enterprises plan to maintain normal production during the National Day holiday. As of September 25, the seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. The LME zinc price rebounded, and the Shanghai zinc price has support before the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [55][56][57] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tibet Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. The market is currently in a strong de - stocking reality. The price is expected to be under pressure before the actual resumption of production, and it may enter a downward channel after the demand peak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [58] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of September 25, the weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased while the port inventory decreased. The price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range [59][60][61] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On September 25, the PX price increased. Some domestic PX plants may postpone maintenance and expand production in Q4, and the PTA maintenance plan in Q4 increased. The PX inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [63][64] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis remained stable. The terminal orders increased slightly, and the PTA inventory is expected to decrease slightly in September - October and increase in November. The price is expected to fluctuate, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [65][66][67] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - As of September 19, the US natural gas inventory increased by 75 Bcf week - on - week. The natural gas price is expected to be supported in early winter but may be under pressure later. The European natural gas inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the price may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On September 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong had sporadic changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to weaken in the later stage. The downward space of the futures price is limited [70][71] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mostly stable. The futures price of the main contract continued to rise. The fundamentals of pulp are not good, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [72][73][74] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of domestic PVC powder market fluctuated strongly. The futures price fluctuated strongly, but the downstream procurement was not active. The fundamentals are weak, but the low valuation makes it difficult for the price to fall further. The impact of domestic policy support should be monitored [75] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - This week, the output of Chinese styrene decreased slightly. The styrene price fluctuated narrowly, and the basis weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [76][77][79] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - China announced the 2035 carbon - reduction target, and the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)" was released. The trading volume of the national carbon market did not increase significantly, and the price stabilized. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the CEA price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [80][81][82] 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd announced a price increase starting from October 15. The European line futures price continued to be strong. The price increase may not be implemented, and the price is expected to be affected by funds and sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly [83][84]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Global central bank meeting, Powell's dovish speech, market's Fed rate - cut expectation heats up, boosting risk appetite and affecting multiple asset prices [13][17][58] - Multiple commodities are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events, showing different trends and investment opportunities [26][32][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported furniture, and Powell hints at a September rate cut [12][13] - Gold price rose about 1% on Friday. Market priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. But current positives can't break gold out of the consolidation [13] - Investment advice: Gold price will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Iran's supreme leader rules out direct talks with the US, and the US vice - president says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [15][16] - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting is dovish. The Fed's policy focus shifts to the labor market, and the US dollar index trends weaker [17] - Investment advice: The US dollar trends weaker [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell signals a rate cut, and Canada cancels some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [19][20] - Market sentiment turns cautious initially, then risk appetite recovers after Powell's dovish speech. US stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [21] - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to rate - cut expectations. Pay attention to Nvidia's earnings report and July PCE data next week [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Chinese leaders attend the SCO Summit - related events, and the State Council studies measures to release sports consumption potential [22][23] - A - shares are strong with increasing trading volume, showing a short - term bullish pattern. But beware of the test of mid - year reports [24] - Investment advice: Suggest balanced long positions in stock index futures [25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity is 36.7 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [26] - Coal price ends its rising trend and enters a weak consolidation. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan in the future [26][27] - Investment advice: Coal price may decline slightly with the season. It is expected to fluctuate between 650 - 700 yuan [27] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Guangxi acquires 20,000 existing commercial housing units [28] - Iron ore price continues to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are slightly weak, and the market sentiment is divided. It is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern [28][29] - Investment advice: Iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The downside is limited, and it is expected to remain in a consolidation pattern [29] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The WTO supports Indonesia in the biodiesel tariff dispute, and the Trump administration makes decisions on SRE applications [30][31] - The negative impact of SRE is less than expected, and US soybean oil price rebounds. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate [32] - Investment advice: After last week's adjustment, US biofuel policies drive up US soybean oil price. Domestic edible oils are expected to rise and then fluctuate, with palm oil having the largest increase [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Cotton mills destock, Brazil's cotton exports reach a record high, and US cotton export contracts are poor [33][34][35] - US cotton export contracts are still weak, and ICE cotton price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [35][36] - Investment advice: ICE cotton price has limited upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Pay continuous attention to demand [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar inventory decreases, a large - scale sugar shipment is made to China, and sugar production estimates are lowered [37][38][40] - International sugar production may be lower than expected, supporting sugar price. Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be long - entry opportunities on dips [41][42] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar price has limited downside and is expected to fluctuate. Wait for long - entry opportunities on dips for the January contract [42] 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel mills' iron - making capacity utilization and iron - water output are at a certain level, and the automobile industry's inventory decreases [43][44] - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory, and steel price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to actual demand release in mid - to late September [44][45] - Investment advice: Steel price fluctuates. Wait for market dips [46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Pro Farmer predicts US soybean yield [47][48] - CBOT soybean price rises due to demand. China's soybean imports in Q4 to next Q1 affect soybean meal supply. Long positions on dips are recommended [49] - Investment advice: Long soybean meal on dips but don't chase highs. Pay continuous attention to Sino - US relations [49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Cassava starch port inventory decreases slightly, and the price difference with corn starch widens slightly [50][51] - Corn starch inventory pressure is high, and the CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [51][52][53] - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread may strengthen when new - season production is determined [53] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn price in North China is weakening, and the market is bearish as new grain approaches [54] - Corn futures price may fluctuate widely around 2150. Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads [54] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and 11 - 3 reverse spreads. Pay attention to weather and policies [54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore plans to produce 1 million tons of copper in Argentina, and Freeport Indonesia will accelerate copper concentrate exports [55][56] - Powell's dovish speech supports copper price. Copper price is expected to turn to a fluctuating - strong pattern in the short - term [58][59] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term long - biased strategy for copper futures. Take profits on domestic - foreign reverse spreads and turn to observation [59] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The "capacity clearance" document is confirmed, and a phosphoric acid iron - lithium industry meeting is held [60] - Short - term de - stocking provides support, and there are opportunities for long positions on dips and positive spreads [61] - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities on dips and positive spreads [61] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic industry advocates fair competition, and Huadian Group's 20GW photovoltaic module procurement is bid [62][64] - Component prices are expected to rise, driving up upstream prices. Polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term [65][66] - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for polysilicon futures. Consider 11 - 12 reverse spreads around - 2000 yuan/ton [66] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of industrial silicon's main production areas increases [67] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are slightly weakening. Its price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang. Industrial silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [68] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Weilan Lithium [69] - Powell's dovish speech may boost nickel price in the short - term. Nickel price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs [70][71] - Investment advice: Short - term long - entry opportunities and medium - term short - entry opportunities on highs for nickel [71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead shows a discount, and lead's supply - demand is weak [72] - Lead price has cost support, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term [72][73] - Investment advice: Observe in the short - term for lead [73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc shows a discount, and a Peruvian zinc mine resumes operation [74] - Zinc price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] - Investment advice: Observe for zinc in the short - term. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread strategy before overseas inventory bottoms out [75] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EUA's closing price is 72.53 euros/ton, and carbon price is affected by energy and geopolitics [76] - EU carbon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [76][77] - Investment advice: EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count decreases [78] - Oil price rises slightly and is expected to fluctuate in a range, waiting for new drivers [78][79] - Investment advice: Oil price will fluctuate in a range in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [79] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [80][81] - Caustic soda price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] - Investment advice: The 9.3 military parade may disrupt supply. The spot price may have limited upside. Be cautious when chasing highs [83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of pulp in Shandong rises, with supply increasing slightly and demand stable [82][84] - Pulp price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85] - Investment advice: Pulp price will fluctuate in the short - term [85] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC powder price is narrowly sorted, with weak downstream procurement and some good export orders [86] - PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] - Investment advice: PVC price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to anti - dumping duties [87] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes change little, and domestic prices increase [88][89] - Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Its price follows polyester raw materials [89] - Investment advice: Bottle chip inventory is decreasing due to production cuts. Pay attention to the pressure from device restart and new capacity [89] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash market in Shahe fluctuates, with prices slightly rising and stable basis [90] - Soda ash price rises slightly, with stable fundamentals. Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs [90] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - entry strategy on highs for soda ash. Pay attention to supply disturbances [90] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass price in Shahe is stable, with different factory shipment situations [91] - Glass price rises slightly. Be cautious with single - side operations and focus on arbitrage [92] - Investment advice: Be cautious with single - side operations for float glass. Focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy when the spread widens [92] 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - A shipping company halts a new - shipbuilding plan due to high costs [93] - SCFI index declines. Container freight rate is expected to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Look for short - entry opportunities on highs [93][94] - Investment advice: Look for short - entry opportunities on highs for container freight rate futures. The October contract tests the 1300 support level [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's focus on inflation risks may limit interest - rate cuts, affecting the price trends of gold, the US dollar, and US stock indexes. - The stock market is expected to be strong, while the bond market may be weak due to recent policy - related meetings. - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, and energy chemicals, are affected by factors such as production, imports, and policies, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. Market risk aversion increased due to Trump's call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook. The Fed's limited room for interest - rate cuts this year and Powell's likely cautious stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggest that gold will continue to trade within a range in the short term. [13] - Investment advice: Gold prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, and investors should be aware of the risk of price corrections. [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show that most members are more concerned about inflation than employment risks. Trump's actions regarding Fed Governor Cook and tariff policies have increased internal differences within the Fed. The US dollar is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a more likely rate cut in September. [16][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's internal differences have increased, and concerns about inflation are rising. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts have reversed, causing the US stock market to correct. However, the decline has narrowed. [20] - Investment advice: Wait cautiously for Powell's speech on Friday as the market's risk appetite has declined. [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR remained stable in August. The central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations have maintained market liquidity, but the bond market is affected by the stock market. With recent policy - related meetings, the stock market is expected to be strong, and the bond market may be weak. [22][24] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - term bearish approach and be cautious when betting on price rebounds. [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In July, China imported a large amount of soybeans from Brazil. The Pro Farmer field survey shows good prospects for US soybean yields, which limits the increase in CBOT soybean prices. Domestic demand for soybean meal is better than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has decreased year - on - year. [26][28] - Investment advice: Soybean meal prices are expected to be moderately strong in a volatile market if China stops purchasing US soybeans. Pay attention to the results of the US field survey this week. [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Imported coal prices are firm, and Indonesian low - calorie coal has a price advantage over domestic coal. However, due to the decline in daily consumption and supply constraints caused by weather, coal prices are expected to fluctuate around 700 yuan in the short term and may decline seasonally in September. [29][30] - Investment advice: Coal prices may be range - bound in the short term due to supply constraints, but the seasonal decline is inevitable. [30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A large - scale iron project in Western Australia has been approved. With the implementation of environmental protection restrictions in the north in late August, iron ore prices may be under short - term pressure but are expected to remain range - bound overall. [31] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with limited impact on the balance sheet from short - term environmental protection measures. [32] 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs. Domestic steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as inventory accumulation and environmental protection restrictions. [33][35] - Investment advice: Wait for further price corrections before considering investment. [35] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The slaughter capacity utilization rate of Huatong Co., Ltd. is around 30% - 40%. The pig market is affected by policies, and there is a game between weak current conditions and strong expectations. The de - stocking process is ongoing, but there are uncertainties in the rhythm. [36][37] - Investment advice: Consider establishing long positions in the LH2601 contract in the range of 14,000 - 14,150 yuan/ton. [38] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Jujube prices in the Hebei market are stable. New - season jujube growth is normal, but the physical inventory is high. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price trend is uncertain. [39][40] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and closely monitor the weather conditions in the production areas. [40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of August and its sugarcane yield in July have shown certain changes. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in July have increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Brazilian sugar production may face uncertainties, which may affect the global sugar supply. [41][42][43] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider buying on dips in the January contract. [45] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina in East Australia has been completed. The market sentiment is cooling, and the supply and demand are loose, leading to a weakening of the price trend. [46] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. [47] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is discussing anti - involution measures for the photovoltaic industry. The price of polysilicon may be affected by policies and market supply - demand relationships. The price is expected to trade between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and may reach over 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term. [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach on price corrections. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton. [51] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In July, China's exports of industrial silicon increased. The supply may increase marginally in August, but due to the large - scale resumption of polysilicon production, the market may still experience de - stocking in August and enter a stocking phase in September. [52] - Investment advice: Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range. [52] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a contango, and the inventory is at a high level. The domestic lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is high. The price may be under pressure, but the support from the recycling cost needs to be observed. [53][54] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term for both single - side trading and arbitrage. [55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - China's exports of galvanized sheets and Peru's zinc concentrate production have increased. In July, China's imports of zinc concentrate reached a record high. The LME zinc market has a high structural risk, and the domestic zinc market is affected by imports and inventory. [56][57][58] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading in the short term. Consider long - term positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out. [59] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In July, China's imports of non - alloy nickel increased significantly. The LME and SHFE nickel markets show different inventory trends. The nickel market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment. [60][61] - Investment advice: Nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term. Consider short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on price increases. [62] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In July, China's imports of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices was due to panic selling by some long - position holders. Fundamentally, there is no significant negative news, and the market may experience de - stocking in the third quarter. [63][64] - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips and positive arbitrage opportunities. [64] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The development of a copper mine project in Arizona is facing uncertainties due to a court ruling. A copper mine expansion project in Zambia has been launched. The copper market is affected by factors such as the US economic situation, policy expectations, and inventory levels. [65][66][67] - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to be widely volatile in the short term. Consider reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets. [68] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - South Korea plans to restructure its naphtha cracking capacity. The increase in the PG contract price on Wednesday was mainly due to sentiment rather than fundamental support. [69][70] - Investment advice: Do not short - sell for now. Consider positive arbitrage opportunities between the November and December contracts for the 2510 contract. [70] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA data shows a significant decline in commercial crude oil inventories. The oil price is expected to continue to trade within a narrow range, waiting for a directional driver. [71][72][73] - Investment advice: Wait for a directional driver in a volatile market. [73] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. The supply is relatively stable, and the price mainly follows the trend of crude oil. [74] - Investment advice: Adjust positions according to the cost of crude oil. Consider buying on price dips with a light position. [75] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA has strengthened, and the market negotiation is fair. The demand from the weaving and polyester sectors is improving marginally. The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. [76][77] - Investment advice: The price mainly follows the cost - end trend. Consider buying on price dips with a light position and rolling the position. [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the market is weak, and the supply and demand are in a general situation. The price is expected to continue to be short - sold on price increases. [79] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on price increases and pay attention to supply - side disturbances. [79] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the market has declined. The supply - side hype has subsided, and the market is weak. [80] - Investment advice: Be cautious in single - side trading. Consider arbitrage strategies, such as buying glass and short - selling soda ash when the spread widens. [81] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [82][83][84] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market has bottomed out, but the price increase may be limited. The price is expected to be range - bound. [84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable, with some varieties showing a downward trend. The market is lackluster, and the price is expected to be range - bound. [85] - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to be range - bound in the short term due to weak fundamentals. [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is weak, and the downstream demand is general. The anti - dumping ruling in India may further weaken the market. [86][87] - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to be weak in the short term. [87] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of styrene rebounded due to news of naphtha cracking capacity reduction in South Korea. The market may focus on future supply situations, and the price may be affected by cost and sentiment. [88][89] - Investment advice: Be aware of the impact of policies on the supply and cost of styrene and the spread of market sentiment. [89] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have been partially increased. The production capacity of major bottle chip factories will continue to be reduced in August, and attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new production capacity in late August to September. [90][91] - Investment advice: The price of bottle chips mainly follows the trend of polyester raw materials. Pay attention to the impact of production capacity changes in late August to September. [91] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The container throughput of Hamburg Port to the US has decreased significantly. The EU's trade situation has deteriorated due to US tariff increases. The supply of shipping capacity is still relatively high, and the demand is weak, so freight rates are expected to continue to decline. [92][93][94] - Investment advice: The freight rate is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Consider short - selling opportunities on price increases. [94]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [13] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, expected to be oscillating [17] - US Stock Index Futures: Attention should be paid to the risk of correction at the current level [19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: In early August, it is a favorable period for the bond market, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. It is not recommended to chase the long position [25] - Soybean Meal: The futures price is expected to maintain a pattern of being strong domestically and weak overseas. If Sino - US relations do not make substantial progress, the price center is expected to rise [29][30] - Edible Oils (Soybean, Rapeseed, Palm): For palm oil, pay attention to Indonesia's production recovery in August; for soybean oil, pay attention to the sustainability of domestic exports [32] - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term, with an operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [37] - Steam Coal: The price is expected to oscillate around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand in mid - to late August [39] - Rebar/HRC: Adopt a cautious and oscillating approach in the near future [43] - Iron Ore: In the short - term, it is expected to continue the oscillating market. Pay attention to the impact of the switch of production restriction expectations [45] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and powder is expected to remain low and oscillating [49] - Corn: In the medium - to long - term, it is expected to maintain an oscillating downward trend. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions [51] - Coking Coal/Coke: In the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation [54] - Polysilicon: In the short - term, the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider a callback - bullish strategy and sell out - of - the - money put options [57] - Industrial Silicon: The short - term decline sentiment has not been fully released. Consider gradually closing short positions and look for potential long - entry opportunities later [59] - Lead: Pay attention to short - term buying opportunities at low prices and manage positions well. For arbitrage, temporarily observe. Consider long - short arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [61] - Zinc: Unilaterally, it is recommended to observe. Low - position speculative long positions can be held in the short - term. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term long - short arbitrage opportunities. Observe the domestic and foreign markets [66] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to overseas mine disturbance risks. Consider long positions at low prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the copper long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and foreign markets [71] - Lithium Carbonate: Consider lightly going long at low prices. For the 9 - 11 spread, take profit [73] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is difficult for the price to fall deeply. Pay attention to band trading opportunities [76] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The price is expected to be weakly oscillating [79] - Crude Oil: Short - term price volatility is expected to increase [82] - Caustic Soda: The subsequent market is expected to be oscillating [83] - Pulp: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodities [85] - PVC: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodities [86] - Styrene: The near - month contract is expected to be weakly oscillating. For pure benzene, consider allocation opportunities if the expected decline occurs [89][90] - Bottle Chip: Consider the opportunity to expand the processing margin by rolling long at low prices [93] - Urea: The Indian tender result is better than expected, which may support the futures price [96] Core Views - The employment market data is weakening, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts is increasing. Gold is oscillating and bullish in the short - term. The US dollar is affected by Trump's tariff policy and is expected to be oscillating in the short - term [12][16][17] - A - share market shows strong resilience, with high risk appetite. The service trade deficit in China has decreased significantly in the first half of the year [21] - In the agricultural product market, the increase in sugar imports in some countries indicates low global consumer inventories. The supply and demand of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, weather, and inventory [26][36] - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating, and the impact of environmental protection production restrictions on actual output needs to be rationally evaluated. The supply and demand of coal and iron ore are affected by factors such as weather and policy [38][42] - In the non - ferrous metal market, the price trends of different metals are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policy. For example, copper is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and overseas mine disturbances [71] - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and international market conditions. For example, the price of crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production decisions and Trump's tariff policy [81] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs on India, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is increasing. Gold is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [11][12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff policy against India and the Fed official's statement on interest rate cuts. The US dollar is expected to be oscillating in the short - term [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU suspends trade counter - measures against the US, and the June factory orders in the US decreased. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction at the current level [18][19] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's service trade deficit decreased in the first half of the year. A - shares show strong resilience. It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [21] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. In early August, it is a favorable period for the bond market, but the upward rhythm is tortuous. It is not recommended to chase the long position [22][24][25] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase, and the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate is 69%. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to be strong domestically and weak overseas [26][27][29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean, Rapeseed, Palm Oils) - The inventory of soybean oil increased, and that of palm oil decreased. Pay attention to Indonesia's palm oil production and the sustainability of domestic soybean oil exports [31][32] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan and the Philippines plan to import sugar. The international sugar price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [34][35][37] 2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Rainfall in Inner Mongolia affects coal production. The coal price is expected to oscillate around 670 yuan, and pay attention to the price after the decline in rigid demand [38][39] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Trump's tariff policy on multiple countries. Steel prices are oscillating, and the impact of environmental protection production restrictions needs to be rationally evaluated [40][42][43] 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The transportation of Mariposa iron ore is approved. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [44][45] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The prices of starch by - products are weak and stable. The price difference between rice and powder is expected to remain low and oscillating [46][49] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Typhoons affect the weather in some areas. Corn is expected to decline oscillatingly in the medium - to long - term [50][51] 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Rainfall in Inner Mongolia affects coal production. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating in the short - term [52][53][54] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India releases a solar cell list. The polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short - term [55][57] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in July increased. The short - term decline sentiment has not been fully released [58][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot inventory decreased slightly. Consider short - term buying opportunities at low prices [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc inventory increased. The zinc price is expected to be oscillating, and pay attention to the integer - level support [62][65][66] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale emphasizes copper growth. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and pay attention to overseas mine disturbances [67][71] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - MinRes and Dynamic modify the lithium joint - venture terms. Consider lightly going long at low prices [72][73] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel iron is difficult to repair. Nickel is expected to have band trading opportunities [75][76] 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to be weakly oscillating [78][79] 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump threatens to increase tariffs on India. Short - term price volatility is expected to increase [80][81][82] 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is expected to be oscillating [82][83] 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is expected to decline following the commodities [84][85] 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market is expected to decline following the commodities [86] 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The near - month contract of styrene is expected to be weakly oscillating. For pure benzene, consider allocation opportunities if the expected decline occurs [87][89][90] 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - Consider the opportunity to expand the processing margin by rolling long at low prices [92][93] 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The Indian tender result is better than expected, which may support the futures price [95][96]