Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak seasons of “Golden September and Silver October” and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, copper prices are expected to rise due to the resonance of macro - and micro - factors, but there is also a risk of a short - term decline if expectations are not met. In the long term, the report is bullish on copper [6]. - Overall, the resilience of US macro data, Trump's active pressure, and the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September have led to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in copper prices. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the A - share bull market has siphoned funds from the commodity market. Fundamentally, supply disruptions in copper ore and the recovery of demand during the peak season, along with tight domestic copper social inventories, suggest that copper prices will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended to hold existing long copper positions and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. Enterprises should wait for high - price opportunities to conduct sell - hedging. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the China - US game and as a substitute for precious metals, along with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Indicators and Fed Policy**: The market is waiting for US inflation and employment data. The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, but it may be affected by inflation. Although the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing and previous data was revised downward, the number of unemployment benefit claimants has recently declined. The market expects the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data to remain at a 2.6% increase. If the data is mild, the Fed may focus more on employment pressure; otherwise, the probability of a September rate cut may be reduced. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium have increased the expectation of a September rate cut, with traders' probability bets exceeding 80%. The US dollar index has weakened, and copper prices have shown an upward trend [10]. - **Domestic Macroeconomic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. There is a short - term domestic policy vacuum period. Before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market was booming, siphoning funds from the commodity market. After the parade, market sentiment may cool down, and there is a risk of a decline in copper prices [13]. 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco's copper production is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, and Indonesia's copper concentrate exports are approaching the quota. China's copper concentrate imports in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but port inventories are significantly lower than the historical average. The global production and capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates have declined. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted [34]. - **Scrap Copper**: The scrap copper market has a tight supply. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has a narrow fluctuation, weakening the substitution effect of scrap copper and stimulating refined copper consumption. Domestic scrap copper supply has increased in the first half of the year, while imported scrap copper has decreased slightly. The production of blister copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic and imported blister copper are at historical lows [38]. - **Refined Copper**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that production will decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. The supply gap of refined copper in 2025 has narrowed, showing a tight balance. The import of refined copper has increased in July, and the import window has opened recently. The ICSG reported a supply surplus in the global copper market from January to June 2025, but the surplus has narrowed [43]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, downstream copper processing enterprises were in a traditional off - season, with lower operating rates. The operating rates of most copper product enterprises decreased in July, except for the copper foil industry [49]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for electricity and new energy vehicles has shown resilience. From January to July, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations performed well. The real estate market is still in a difficult situation. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. The performance of household appliances is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [54]. 3. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - level**: The release of US inflation and employment data is imminent. Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, there is a risk of reversals. The market sentiment is cautious. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the LPR remains unchanged. After the military parade in early September, market sentiment may decline, and attention should be paid to domestic and international macro - data [74]. - **Fundamental - level**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. Although China's electrolytic copper production increased in July, it may decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. With the approaching peak seasons and inventory replenishment, demand is expected to recover. Globally, copper inventories have increased monthly, but domestic copper social inventories are low. The short - term contradiction in the copper market is the weak reality of inventory accumulation after the US copper tariff TACO versus the strong expectation of inventory depletion during the peak season. The medium - term contradiction lies in the interference of copper concentrates and the inverted TC versus the high elasticity of refined copper supply. The long - term contradiction is the global economic concerns caused by China - US confrontation versus the booming demand for green copper in the power and new energy sectors [74].

Core Insights - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) has attracted significant foreign investment into Chinese assets, with the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate surging past 7.12, marking a new high since November 2024 [1][3][24] - The capital influx is driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a depreciation of the US dollar and increased attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [5][7][10] - The ongoing economic competition between China and the US has intensified, with both countries engaging in a broader strategic contest that includes trade and regulatory battles [14][16][20] Group 1: Currency and Investment Trends - The RMB's recent appreciation has resulted in a notable increase in foreign capital entering the Chinese stock market, with net inflows exceeding 10 billion RMB in a single day [3][7] - Key sectors attracting foreign investment include technology and renewable energy, reflecting a shift in perception of Chinese assets from a safe haven to a growth opportunity [7][20] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a favorable environment for RMB assets, as the interest rate differential between China and the US narrows [5][10] Group 2: US Economic Concerns - The US is experiencing internal challenges, including political maneuvers that threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could further destabilize the dollar [9][10][12] - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 10% since January 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency [10][12] - The current US administration is attempting to address economic issues through various strategies, including increasing oil production and urging Congress to raise the debt ceiling, indicating a reactive rather than proactive approach [12][20] Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics - The competition between China and the US has evolved from trade disputes to a more comprehensive struggle over global economic rules and standards [14][16] - China's manufacturing competitiveness is bolstered by substantial R&D investments, which are expected to continue driving growth in key sectors such as semiconductors [14][16] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with both nations seeking to redefine their roles in global supply chains and economic partnerships, as evidenced by China's initiatives like RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative [16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, different investment stances are recommended: - **Bullish**: Gold, silver, copper, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are recommended for long - term investment or short - term long positions [1]. - **Bearish**: Zinc is recommended for short - term short positions and long - term shorting on rebounds [1]. - **Neutral with upward pressure**: Lead, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face upward pressure on price rebounds [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Short - term, they are affected by data, policy, and geopolitical factors. Gold has support at around 770, and silver at 9200. Long - term, they benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: In the short - term, observe support at 78000 - 78500 and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7]. - **Zinc**: In the short - term, hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][9][10]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, take profit and wait and see. The price faces upward pressure on rebounds due to inventory and demand factors [1][13][14]. - **Nickel**: After taking profit, wait and see. The price rebounds are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [1][17][18]. - **New Energy Metals**: - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait for stabilization at gaps. The market has strong supply and demand, with inventory declining for two consecutive weeks. In the short - term, focus on the 20 - day moving average support [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. data is mixed, with GDP growth revised up but employment confidence down. There are tariff compromises and concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term, there is a lack of major risk events, while long - term, gold benefits from global factors [3]. - **Logic**: Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low. Long - term, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: It follows the gold market in the short - term, with no obvious contradictions in its own market [1]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, global liquidity and re - industrialization demand are strong, while supply growth is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at 9200. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The U.S. GDP is better than expected, and the dollar index has declined. The market is affected by upcoming events, and there is an increase in profit - taking of long positions [7]. - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decline. Demand will pick up with the approaching peak season. The long - term outlook is positive due to strategic importance and growing demand [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Observe support at 78000 - 78500, and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, be bullish on copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The price is oscillating weakly, testing the support at 22,000 [9]. - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. There is inventory accumulation in the domestic market [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply is abundant, and there is inventory accumulation in the domestic market. Although downstream demand is slightly improving, the price still faces pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operations [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [16]. - **Logic**: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the nickel industry, with an oversupply of refined nickel and a tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel market is still in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in downstream inventory [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened significantly lower and then narrowed the decline [20]. - **Logic**: There is uncertainty about a mine's license renewal. Supply and demand are both strong, and inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks [21]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 20 - day moving average support at [77500 - 79800] [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is recommended for short - term observation and long - term strategic allocation. Silver is recommended for rebound buying. Copper is recommended to hold long positions. Zinc is recommended for rebound short - selling. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to have short - term rebounds. Industrial silicon is expected to move in a range, and polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short term, gold has limited upward space due to the lack of concentrated risk events, while in the long run, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, with a potential long - term bull market. Silver has an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Copper is expected to be strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run. Zinc is under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply. Aluminum prices rebound due to downstream destocking. Nickel prices stabilize and rise due to a warm macro - environment. Lithium carbonate has a de - stocking expectation and is recommended for low - buying [6][10][14][18][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: With increased rate - cut expectations and slowed trading sentiment, the gold and silver markets are consolidating [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Overseas markets focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about the German economy, increasing European rate - cut expectations. Geopolitical tensions are easing. In the short term, gold has a low probability of breaking through the range, while in the long term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770 and pay attention to the recent high of 794. Silver has support at 9100 and pay attention to the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will oscillate upwards [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates strongly, and London copper resumes trading after a one - day holiday [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper and look for opportunities to go long on dips. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78500, 81000] yuan/ton, and London copper focuses on [9750, 9950] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc gaps down and moves lower overnight, and London zinc resumes trading after a one - day holiday [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and demand is weak due to factors such as tariffs and the off - season [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is weak and oscillating in the short - term, and maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds in the long - term. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22000, 22600], and London zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious rate - cut expectations overseas, with a decrease in production costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Recommend short - term profit - taking and observation for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the downstream开工 rate. The main operating range is [20000 - 21000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilize, and stainless steel rebounds from a low level [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas macro - sentiment is warm. Nickel ore prices are weak, and refined nickel production increases with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel's destocking effect is weakening, and it still faces pressure in the off - season [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Recommend profit - taking and observation for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and closes low with a slight increase in positions, closing down 0.3% [21]. - **Industry Logic**: Supply increases slightly, and demand is picking up as the peak season approaches. Total inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks, and there is still a de - stocking expectation [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [79000 - 81000] [23].

Group 1 - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's visit to the U.S. aims to discuss security, defense budgets, tariffs, and other issues with President Trump, indicating no limits on the topics of discussion [1][3] - The media suggests that both leaders share common ground, such as past assassination attempts and interests in golf, which may facilitate cooperation in addressing the "Chinese threat" in Northeast Asia [4] - South Korea's shipbuilding industry, which remains strong, is highlighted as a key area for potential collaboration, especially in light of the U.S. military's declining shipbuilding capabilities [4][10] Group 2 - The U.S. Navy's shipbuilding efficiency is significantly lagging behind China's, raising concerns about America's maritime dominance [6][10] - Recent incidents, such as a U.S. Navy ship catching fire in Japan, underscore the challenges faced by the U.S. military in maintaining and deploying its fleet [8] - The decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry has been a long-term trend, exacerbated by deindustrialization since the 1980s, leading to a lack of skilled labor and operational inefficiencies [8][10] Group 3 - Previous attempts by both Trump and Biden to engage South Korea in ship production and maintenance have not resulted in agreements, but there are suggestions for broader collaboration, including supply chain restructuring and workforce training [12] - The notion that South Korea could play a critical role in U.S.-China tensions reflects a sense of desperation within the U.S. regarding its strategic position [14]

News Summary Group 1: Company Developments - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has received approval from the mining regulator Sernageomin to resume operations at Andes Norte and Diamante, while Recursos Norte and Andesita remain closed [1] - The copper rod production rate increased to 71.80% during the week of August 15-21, up 1.2 percentage points week-on-week, but down 8.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Copper raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% week-on-week to 33,800 tons due to maintenance-related production cuts at some copper rod enterprises [1] - Finished product inventory fell by 5.44% to 66,100 tons following a temporary improvement in downstream orders after a drop in copper prices [1] - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase but remains at low levels, while LME copper inventory has accumulated [2][3] - The market liquidity has improved due to the return of imported copper and domestic supply [3] - Downstream consumption has not shown a turning point, but the demand for replenishment has increased as copper prices decline [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong outlook due to anticipated demand increases in the upcoming peak season, despite current pressures on spot premiums [3]

Core Viewpoint - After three years of sluggishness, the Hong Kong stock issuance market has rebounded strongly, with expectations to reclaim its position as the largest IPO market globally in 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) reported total revenue of HKD 14.076 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.53%, and net profit of HKD 8.519 billion, up 39%, both reaching historical highs for a half-year period [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market welcomed 44 new companies, raising a total of HKD 109.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 716% [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, there were 207 IPO applications being processed, more than double the 84 applications at the end of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The resurgence in the IPO market is attributed to a combination of policy support, market conditions, and supply from companies [5]. - Policy measures from mainland China, including increased funding support and interest rate cuts, have bolstered business confidence, while the optimization of listing rules has facilitated the process for new economy companies [5]. - The approval efficiency for IPOs has significantly improved, with regulatory bodies supporting leading companies from the mainland to list in Hong Kong [5]. Group 3: Leading Companies and Trends - Major A-share companies such as CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and Haidilao have contributed significantly to the IPO market, raising over HKD 71.8 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of the total IPO amount [6]. - The "A+H" model has gained traction, allowing companies to broaden their financing channels and leverage Hong Kong's international platform for global expansion [6]. - The rise of AI and innovative sectors has attracted more tech companies, including unprofitable biotech firms, to consider IPOs in Hong Kong [6][7]. Group 4: Market Liquidity and Valuation - Improved liquidity and valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market have enhanced the attractiveness of IPOs, with average daily trading volume reaching HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 118% [8]. - The average daily trading volume for ETFs surged to HKD 33.8 billion, up 184% [8]. - The refinancing function in the Hong Kong market has also been active, with refinancing amounts exceeding IPO sizes, indicating market depth and ease of continued financing for companies [8]. Group 5: Global Capital Trends - The shift in global capital flows, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, has led international investors to favor Hong Kong as a key IPO destination [9]. - The recent tensions between the U.S. and China have not deterred IPO activities; instead, they have reinforced Hong Kong's position as a preferred market for Chinese companies [9]. - International institutions have recognized Hong Kong's resilience, with foreign capital returning to the market, evidenced by significant participation from global funds in recent IPOs [9]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Hong Kong's unique advantages, such as the absence of capital gains and inheritance taxes, free capital flow, and a legal system aligned with international standards, are expected to continue attracting IPOs [10]. - The transformation of the market from pessimism to enthusiasm within a year signifies a reshaping of the international financial landscape, with Hong Kong poised to play a pivotal role [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of the U.S.-China competition, emphasizing that the current trade tensions are not isolated incidents but part of a long-standing pattern of great power rivalry [1][3][4] - It highlights that the U.S. has historically used strategies such as suppressing competitors to maintain its dominance, a tactic now being applied to China [5][7] - The narrative suggests that understanding historical precedents can provide insights into current geopolitical dynamics and strategies employed by nations [8][10] Group 2 - The article points out that national competitiveness is a multifaceted issue involving the interplay of institutions, technology, industry, and capital [9][12] - It contrasts the U.S. approach of leveraging global financial systems and technology alliances with China's focus on self-innovation and market resilience [9][12] - The text emphasizes that strategic confrontations can be analyzed and understood through historical examples, which can inform current responses to geopolitical challenges [11][15] Group 3 - The article asserts that a deep understanding of history can alleviate fears regarding economic decoupling and supply chain disruptions [11][15] - It provides examples of how various countries have navigated crises and competition, illustrating the importance of institutional quality and strategic decision-making [12][15] - The conclusion stresses that the significant fluctuations in the global landscape are closely tied to the historical choices made by nations over the past three centuries [13][14]

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]

现在韩国的处境确实两难：美国是军事同盟，不敢彻底得罪；可经济上中国是重要市场，三星、LG这些企业在中国有大量投资和业务。要是真被美国逼着 选边站，不管选哪边韩国都得吃亏。李在明这时候派团访华，就是想告诉中国：韩国不想完全倒向美国，希望能保持合作，给自己留条后路。 面对美国这波操作，李在明政府赶紧做两手准备。8月19日他在总统府召集了三星掌门人李在镕、LG会长具光谟这些大企业老板开会。表面上是说要借访美 取得"实质性成果"，实际上是在提醒这些企业家：可得守住底线，别真让美国把韩国企业给吃干抹尽了。 据韩联社说，美国政府正计划用之前给的补贴换三星股份。按47.5亿美元补贴来算，美国能拿到三星电子1.6%的股份。可特朗普的胃口哪止这点？8月19日 美国商务部长卢特尼克公开说，拜登之前给的补贴太"慷慨"了，现在要重新定规矩。他们甚至在琢磨拿补贴换英特尔10%的股份，想当最大股东。 彭博社还帮着粉饰，说这是特朗普想让政府和企业"拉近关系"，推动政治议程。说白了就是用补贴当诱饵，再拿关税当大棒，逼着企业听话。之前特朗普就 放话，要对所有半导体产品征100%关税，除非企业去美国建厂。台积电、三星之前被逼着承诺在美国建厂，可 ...