Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a new round of tariffs by President Trump has stirred global markets, leading to increased risk aversion among investors and significant declines in Asian stock indices [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Details - Starting October 1, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded pharmaceuticals [1]. - Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to all imported heavy trucks [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major Asian stock indices fell sharply, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down approximately 0.6% to 45,478 points, and South Korea's Kospi dropping 2.5% to 3,384.58 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline [2][4]. - Japanese pharmaceutical stocks experienced significant declines, with Sumitomo Pharma down 5.2% and Chugai Pharmaceutical down 3.9% [2][6]. Group 3: U.S. Market Context - U.S. stock markets have seen three consecutive days of decline, primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic data, which has raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts [5][7]. - The recent economic performance has led to skepticism regarding the continuation of rate cuts, which have been a significant driver of U.S. stock market gains this year [5]. Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market downturn, oil prices have risen, with Brent crude futures reaching $69.67 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.3% to $64.59 per barrel [10][13]. - The increase in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, pushing benchmark prices to their highest levels since August 1 [13].

Core Insights - The international precious metals market has shown a volatile pattern, with gold reaching a historical high of $3824.6 per ounce on September 23, followed by a slight decline to $3797.1 per ounce on September 24, indicating increased short-term market divergence [2] - Silver prices also hit a historical high of $44.77 per ounce, driven by the precious metal's attributes and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to significant inflows into the silver market [2][3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the looming U.S. government shutdown have contributed to rising precious metal prices, as investors seek safe-haven assets [3][5] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with expectations of increased demand in the photovoltaic sector due to China's policies [6][7] - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the list of critical minerals for 2025 has raised concerns about potential tariffs, further supporting the silver market [6] - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for nearly 60% of total demand, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors [7] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's mixed signals regarding interest rate cuts have created uncertainty in the market, with some officials advocating for caution while others support further rate reductions [4][5] - Market expectations for two rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, continue to support the bullish outlook for gold and silver [8][9] - The potential for increased inflation and rising unemployment presents a complex scenario for the Fed, impacting investor sentiment towards precious metals [5] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider fund products, such as ETFs, for lower volatility and higher liquidity compared to physical assets [9][10] - The long-term outlook for gold and silver remains positive, driven by ongoing liquidity and geopolitical factors, with predictions of gold prices potentially exceeding $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [9][10] - The silver market's fundamentals, including the gold-silver ratio and industrial demand, support a strategy of buying on dips [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed persists, with Powell maintaining a data - dependent stance and dovish理事 like Bowman emphasizing the risk of the Fed's lagging actions. Geopolitical tensions remain high, and gold volatility and trading indicators suggest the market is not overcrowded. Precious metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [2][4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish driver for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the rate - cut cycle, dovish expectations are likely to continue driving gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the long - term imagination of rate cuts and the risk of the Fed's independence, which also strengthens the narrative of the decline of the US dollar's credit and provides more upside potential for gold prices. The target for US - dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [4]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant decline, the soft - landing trade dominates the market, and the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward movement and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Fed's interest rates are too high and have lasted too long. He doesn't understand why Powell's attitude has softened. Concerns about an economic recession have eased, and he is worried about distribution issues, calling for rate cuts to relieve pressure. He also mentioned plans to support Argentina, including discussing a $20 billion swap line, being ready to buy Argentine US - dollar bonds, and working to end the tax - exemption period for commodity producers [3]. - A Fed survey shows that corporate treasurers say market sentiment is improving, but tariffs will push up prices [3]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said that there is still room for further rate cuts. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts depend on the inflation path. The labor market is weakening, and consumers are cautious [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to rise during the day. The US dollar rebounded slightly at night and then declined, and the overall price remained strong. The divergence within the Fed persists, geopolitical tensions remain high, and gold volatility and trading indicators suggest the market is not overcrowded, so precious metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish driver for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the rate - cut cycle, dovish expectations are likely to continue driving gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the long - term imagination of rate cuts and the risk of the Fed's independence, which also strengthens the narrative of the decline of the US dollar's credit and provides more upside potential for gold prices. Silver trends follow gold, and silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward movement and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [4]. - Outlook: The weekly range for spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and for spot London silver is [41, 47] [4]. Commodity Index - On September 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures Commodity Index is presented. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2232.74, +0.56%), Commodity 20 Index (2505.61, +0.54%), Industrial Products Index (2245.28, +0.72%), and PPI Commodity Index (1318.26, +0.35%) [47]. - The precious metal index on September 24, 2025, is 3006.67, with a daily increase of +0.50%, a 5 - day increase of +4.44%, a 1 - month increase of +10.17%, and a year - to - date increase of +35.90% [48].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation with a weak job market in future rate decisions [1] - Gold prices experienced a sudden decline, potentially linked to rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.137% [1] - Geopolitical tensions are highlighted by President Trump's unexpected support for Ukraine, stating that Kyiv could reclaim the entire country from Russia [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted Powell's clearer expression of uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, suggesting a slightly hawkish tone despite ongoing inflation pressures [2] - Analyst Chad maintained a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, while indicating that short-term fluctuations may keep gold within the $3700-$3750 per ounce range [2] - If gold prices fall below $3700 per ounce, the next support level is the 20-day simple moving average at $3613 per ounce, with a further challenge at $3600 per ounce [2] Group 3 - Gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish daily direction with resistance levels at 3748, 3757, and 3764, and support levels at 3723, 3708, and 3684 [3] - The Euro to U.S. Dollar (EURUSD) also indicates a bullish daily direction with resistance at 1.1764, 1.1795, and 1.1832, and support at 1.1700, 1.1669, and 1.1648 [4] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include initial jobless claims, final GDP growth rate for Q2, final personal consumption expenditures for Q2, existing home sales, and EIA natural gas inventory [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is experiencing high volatility, trading at $3,767.26 per ounce, close to its record high of $3,790.97 per ounce reached recently, with a daily increase of 0.46% [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by two main factors: ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions, which have increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market sentiment remains bullish despite cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with upcoming inflation data expected to influence gold's price trajectory [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent price movements in gold are consistent with expectations, with a strategy of buying on dips being recommended as the most prudent approach [2][3] - Current support levels for gold are identified at $3,737 and $3,715, while resistance is noted around the $3,800 mark, indicating a potential for high volatility in the near term [5] - The technical indicators suggest that while there may be short-term adjustments, the overall bullish trend remains intact unless significant price levels are breached [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have risen to $67.90 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is at $63.69 per barrel, with both benchmarks experiencing over a $1 increase recently due to supply constraints [6] - The supply disruptions, particularly in the Kurdish region of Iraq, are a primary driver of the current price increases, rather than improvements in demand [6] - The market is expected to remain supported in the short to medium term, but volatility may increase due to potential inventory data releases [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil market is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends observed, supported by a bullish moving average system [7] - The recommended trading strategy for oil is to buy on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance levels identified between $65.0 and $66.0 and support levels between $62.5 and $61.5 [7]

摘要现货黄金周二（9月23日）日K收涨。现货黄金周二再度创下纪录新高至3790.97美元/盎司，最终收 于3763.93美元，涨幅达0.46%。一方面，美联储降息预期的持续发酵为金市注入强劲动力；另一方面， 地缘政治紧张局势的升级进一步激发了投资者的避险需求。 现货黄金周二（9月23日）日K收涨。现货黄金周二再度创下纪录新高至3790.97美元/盎司，最终收于 3763.93美元，涨幅达0.46%。一方面，美联储降息预期的持续发酵为金市注入强劲动力；另一方面，地 缘政治紧张局势的升级进一步激发了投资者的避险需求。 【要闻速递】 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在3746.1的位置后行情先回落，日线最低给到了3736.5的位置后行情强势震荡拉 升，日线最高触及到了3791.4的历史新高位置后行情获利了结调整，日线最终收线在了3764.6的位置 后，日线以一根上影线很长的类倒锤头形态收线。 而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情在日线上有一定的调整压力，今日2782空保守2785空止损2789，目标 看2760和2750，跌破看2740和2732。 当不确定性成为当下时代的主旋律时，投资者出于本能，纷纷探寻能够抵御风险的资产"避风港 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and geopolitical tensions, with a recent peak at $3791 per ounce [1][3] - Powell's recent comments highlight the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, including rising inflation and a weak labor market, which have not significantly impacted the bullish trend in gold prices [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly NATO's warnings to Russia, are providing additional support for gold prices, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts and strong interest from ETF investors [3] Group 2 - The short-term outlook for gold suggests that if prices close below $3760 per ounce, it may pave the way for a decline towards $3750 and subsequently $3700 [4] - Conversely, if buyers push gold prices above $3775 per ounce, it could lead to testing the record high of $3791 per ounce, with the next target being $3800 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy, investors are ignoring these signals, leading to a new historical high in gold prices [1] - Spot gold prices rose to $3,749.27 per ounce in Asian markets, continuing the upward trend from the previous two trading days [1] - Following a brief decline in gold prices last week, there was a significant influx into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with the fastest growth in holdings seen in over three years [1] Group 2 - Analysts from BMO Capital Markets noted that after a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, gold prices initially fell due to cautious signals from Powell, but new upward momentum has formed, driven by ETF inflows [4] - The report indicates that as the rate cut cycle is established, the risk-reward profile for gold prices remains positive heading into the fourth quarter [4] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed the need for caution in future rate decisions, with some indicating limited room for further rate cuts due to persistent inflation pressures [4] Group 3 - Gold and silver have emerged as some of the best-performing commodities this year, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing of monetary policy, increased reserves by central banks, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5] - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs, expect further increases in gold prices [5] - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming data, including the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which may support further rate cuts if growth slows [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in gold prices, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and the economic forecasts, highlighting the potential for gold prices to reach new highs amid geopolitical tensions and central bank buying activity [2][6][12]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have shown volatility, dropping from $3707 to $3627 after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, indicating a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" market behavior [8][10]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that more central banks are expected to join the gold buying trend by 2025, although smaller nations may face limitations due to foreign reserve constraints [10]. - Recent geopolitical tensions and the potential for a U.S. government shutdown are contributing to ongoing support for gold prices, which reached a record high of $3728.50 per ounce before experiencing a slight pullback [12]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve has revised its economic growth forecasts upward, with projected GDP growth rates of 1.61% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2026, compared to previous estimates [7]. - The unemployment rate forecasts have been adjusted downward for 2026 and 2027, now expected to be 4.4% and 4.34% respectively [7]. - The Fed has also increased its inflation expectations for 2026, with the PCE inflation rate now projected at 2.6% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley Asset Management indicates that disappointing earnings from AI companies pose a greater risk to the tech-driven global stock market than ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and AI Impact - The high level of market focus on artificial intelligence means that any disappointing news could trigger a significant market pullback [1] - Strong demand for AI and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven global stock markets to new highs, with the four major U.S. indices reaching historical peaks [1] Group 2: Valuation Concerns and Future Outlook - Given the massive investments by large-scale companies, if these investments do not translate into revenue, the market may begin to reassess the earnings growth prospects of these companies at current valuation levels [3] - The upside potential for U.S. stocks at current levels is limited, while Europe may benefit from fiscal support [3] - Japan may see a boost from corporate reforms, and emerging markets stand out due to their attractive valuations [3]