【环球网财经综合报道】据路透社等外媒报道，华尔街投行高盛（Goldman Sachs）近期发布的报告称，由于全球原油 供应增加导致市场出现过剩，今年油价可能承压下行，但持续的地缘政治风险仍将引发市场波动。该行维持对2026年 布伦特原油及美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）平均价格的预测，分别为每桶56美元和52美元，并预计随着库存增 加，布伦特与WTI油价将在第四季度触底至每桶54美元和50美元。 高盛分析指出，全球石油库存上升以及该行对2026年每日230万桶供应过剩的预测显示，除非出现大规模供应中断或 欧佩克实施减产，否则在市场重新平衡的过程中，油价将在2026年走低，以减缓非欧佩克国家的供应增长并支撑强劲 的需求增长。截至发稿，布伦特原油期货价格约为每桶63美元，WTI原油价格稳定在每桶59美元。在刚刚过去的2025 年，这两大基准油价均创下自2020年以来最差的年度表现，跌幅接近20%。 该行分析师还提到，美国政策制定者对强劲能源供应和较低油价的关注，将在中期选举前抑制油价持续上涨的空间。 高盛预计，2027年油价将逐渐回升。随着非欧佩克供应增长放缓以及需求持续强劲，市场将再度出现供应短缺。该行 对20 ...

格隆汇1月5日｜摩根士丹利的分析显示，美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动及罢黜马杜罗的行为，对多数石油 生产商而言可能是一个利空因素，尤其是那些专注于加拿大油砂的生产商。分析指出，委内瑞拉生产的 主要是重质含硫原油，其品质与加拿大重质原油（WCS）相似。尽管华盛顿方面的激进立场在短期内 对供应的影响有限，但摩根士丹利暗示，若未来对委内瑞拉的制裁有所放宽，可能会加剧本已严重过剩 的石油市场。这将导致WCS相对于美国西德克萨斯中质原油的折价进一步扩大。摩根士丹利预计，帝 国石油和塞诺格斯能源受WCS-WTI价差变化的影响最大，而森科能源和加拿大自然资源的抗风险能力 较强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight decline on the first trading day of 2026, following the largest annual drop since 2020, as investors weighed concerns over supply surplus against geopolitical risks, including the Ukraine war and issues with Venezuelan exports [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On the first trading day of 2026, Brent crude oil contracts fell by $0.10 to $60.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also decreased by $0.10 to $57.32 per barrel [1][2]. - In 2025, both Brent and WTI benchmark crude prices recorded nearly a 20% annual decline, marking the most severe drop since 2020, primarily due to concerns over supply surplus and tariff issues overshadowing geopolitical risks [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations led by U.S. President Donald Trump aim to end the nearly four-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine, yet both nations continue to accuse each other of civilian attacks [1][2]. - In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to cut off funding for Moscow's military operations in Ukraine [3]. - The U.S. government has increased pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, imposing sanctions on four companies and their associated tankers operating in the Venezuelan oil industry [3]. Group 3: OPEC+ Outlook - Analysts from Sparta Commodities indicate that traders generally expect OPEC+ to continue its production freeze in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - DBS Bank's energy analyst forecasts that Brent oil prices will remain relatively stable in 2026, fluctuating between $60 and $65 per barrel [4].

尽管如此，布伦特和WTI油价今年仍分别有望下跌约16%和18%，这是自2020年新冠疫情冲击石油需求 以来的最大年度跌幅，因预计明年供应将超过需求。 海通期货在一份报告中指出，从供应面看，委内瑞拉出口中断是推高油价的最重要因素，而俄罗斯和乌 克兰持续袭击对方能源基础设施也对市场构成支撑。 周三国际油价基本持平，投资者在权衡美国经济增长的同时，评估来自委内瑞拉和俄罗斯的供应中断风 险，尽管油价正走向自2020年以来最严重的年度跌幅。 截止美国东部标准时间2025年12月24日（星期三）上午7点18分，布伦特原油期货下跌23美分，跌幅 0.4%，报每桶62.15美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）下跌8美分，跌幅0.2%，报58.29美元。 自12月16日跌至近五年低点以来，两种合约均已反弹约6%。 IG分析师托尼·赛卡莫尔（Tony Sycamore）表示："过去一周我们看到的是，在市场交投清淡背景下进 行的仓位调整，因为上周的价格破位未能持续，同时地缘政治紧张局势加剧——包括美国对委内瑞拉的 封锁——再加上昨晚强劲的GDP数据支撑。" 美国数据显示，全球最大的经济体在第三季度以两年来最快的速度增长，主要由强 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite signs of weakness in the crude oil market, fuel premiums for gasoline and diesel have surged, offsetting declines and leading to a rise in oil prices [1][2] - Brent crude oil futures are approaching $65 per barrel, marking a third consecutive day of increases, driven by rising fuel premiums and technical buying from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) [1] - Energy Aspects highlights that a significant buying trigger for CTAs exists above $64.50 per barrel, suggesting an upward risk balance, although hedging flows may limit volatility [1] Group 2 - The refined oil market remains strong despite the softening crude oil futures curve, with fuel premiums at high levels, particularly in Europe where diesel benchmark prices have reached their highest since early last year [2] - Analysts from PVM suggest that without the strong support from the refined oil market, crude oil prices would likely be lower, and the narrowing of the spot premium between WTI and Brent is noteworthy [2] - OPEC is set to release its monthly market analysis report, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) will provide its annual outlook, with previous forecasts indicating a record surplus in global crude oil by 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The investment market operates on four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits. Successful investors are those who can sustain profitability over time, rather than being swayed by short-term gains or losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, breaking the psychological barrier of $3,800 and reaching a historical high. This surge is driven by increasing risks of a U.S. government shutdown and inflation data that aligns with expectations, reinforcing market bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - The medium to long-term trend for gold remains bullish, with potential to reach $3,900 or higher if the current momentum continues. A significant bullish candlestick formation is anticipated, indicating further upward movement [2][4] - Technical indicators suggest that gold remains strong above the 5-day moving average, with key resistance levels identified at $3,840-$3,850 and support levels at $3,810-$3,800 [4] Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have declined by 0.90% to $69.50 per barrel, while WTI fell by 0.99% to $65.07 per barrel, nearly reversing last week's gains. OPEC+ is expected to approve an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day, yet actual production remains below targets, creating a supply gap of nearly 500,000 barrels per day [5] - The oil market is currently caught between signals of increased supply and ongoing production shortfalls, with geopolitical tensions adding complexity. Short-term price movements are expected to remain volatile, but the market may maintain a bullish bias if Russian energy exports continue to face restrictions [5][6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a consolidation phase, with a trading range between $66.00 and $60.80. The MACD indicator suggests a potential shift towards bullish momentum, although short-term trends may indicate downward pressure [6]

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant reduction in domestic fuel prices, with gasoline expected to decrease by 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per liter in the upcoming adjustment, marking the 19th round of price changes this year [1] - Despite the anticipated price drop, international crude oil prices have remained stable, with WTI at $62.69 per barrel and Brent crude slightly rising to $66.99, indicating a disconnect between domestic expectations and international market trends [2] - The fluctuations in oil prices are influenced by complex geopolitical dynamics and economic strategies, rather than mere market supply and demand [2][7] Group 2 - President Trump's potential imposition of up to 100% tariffs on imports from countries like India could disrupt global oil markets, as India and Russia are significant consumers of crude oil [3] - The aggressive tariff strategy may exacerbate global inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to consider interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [5][6] - The long-term trends in oil prices are primarily driven by policy directions and geopolitical landscapes, rather than short-term market fluctuations [7] Group 3 - The upcoming price adjustment window on September 23 is anticipated to result in a downward trend in fuel prices, with expectations for a more substantial reduction than previously indicated [9] - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of global events, such as U.S. monetary policy decisions and geopolitical conflicts, in influencing local fuel prices [9]

Market Overview - The gold market has recently seen a significant increase, with spot gold breaking through 3700, reaching a new historical high, driven by a weak US dollar and declining US Treasury yields [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut, which could influence future interest rate paths and subsequently affect gold prices [2][4] - Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, providing support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold maintains a bullish trend but is currently in a consolidation phase, suggesting a cautious approach to buying [4] - Key support is identified at 3665, with potential upward targets at 3710 and 3750 if the bullish trend continues [4] - If gold unexpectedly drops below 3665, it may enter a high volatility phase, with further support at 3620 [4] Oil Market Overview - International oil prices are experiencing high volatility, with Brent crude oil at $67.48 and WTI at $63.32 [5] - Concerns over Russian oil supply due to increased attacks on its refineries are driving market sentiment [5] - The oil market is influenced by three main factors: supply concerns from Russia, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and mixed signals from Middle Eastern geopolitical relations [5] Technical Analysis - Oil - The oil market is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at 66.0-67.0 and support levels at 63.0-62.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price closed at $3678.73 per ounce, with a rise of approximately 1%, reaching a record high of $3685.47 during the session [2] - Multiple factors contributing to the gold price surge include a weak US dollar, declining US Treasury yields, and investor anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [2][4] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce its first interest rate cut since December, which is driving the bullish sentiment in gold [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market remains in a strong bullish trend, with key support at the historical high of $3674 and a critical support level at $3660 [4] - If gold breaks below $3660, it may continue to adjust, with further attention on the 3640-3635 region [4] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at 3715-3725 and support at 3680-3670 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing high volatility, with Brent crude at $67.48 per barrel and WTI at $63.32 per barrel [5] - Concerns over Russian oil supply due to increased attacks on its refineries are driving market sentiment [5] - The oil market is influenced by three main factors: supply concerns from Russia, expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and mixed signals from Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil market is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [6] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with resistance levels at 64.5-65.5 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced a significant decline, with spot gold prices dropping over 1.5% in a single day, reaching a low of $3268.02 per ounce, the lowest since June 30 [2] - Factors contributing to this decline include the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, hawkish comments from Powell dampening rate cut expectations, and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose approximately 1%, hitting its highest point since May 29 at 99.99, further increasing pressure on gold prices [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current weak trend in gold is evident, with a focus on the critical resistance level at $3300, where a rebound is expected [4] - Key resistance levels to watch are around $3325 and $3330, while support levels are identified at $3265 and $3255 [4] - The analysis suggests a strategy of selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with a cautious outlook on further upward movement due to previous double top formations [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.19% to $72.65 per barrel, while WTI increased by 0.03% to $69.23 per barrel, both reaching their highest levels since June 20 [5] - President Trump's statement regarding potential 100% secondary tariffs on Russian trade partners if conflict does not end within 10-12 days has heightened market tensions [5] - Analysts suggest that if these tariffs are implemented, significant changes in the oil market could occur, particularly affecting major buyers [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil shows a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on testing the $78 level, while short-term trends indicate a strong upward movement [6] - Key resistance levels are identified at $72.0-$73.0, with support levels at $68.5-$67.5 [6] - The analysis recommends a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rebounds, indicating a bullish short-term outlook [6]