Core Insights - The real estate market in July showed a divergence between new and second-hand housing prices, with new home prices experiencing a slight increase while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][4]. New Housing Market - In July, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,877 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.64% [1][2]. - First-tier cities led the new housing price recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 0.36% in July, driven by high-end improvement projects [2]. - Second-tier cities also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, with Hangzhou leading at 1.51% [2]. - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities faced pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 0.19% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand in the real estate market experienced a seasonal decline, with new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities at 8.36 million square meters in July, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3]. - The central government emphasized transitioning from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, which may inject vitality into the new housing market [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,585 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.77% and a year-on-year decline of 7.32% [4][5]. - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a "price for volume" strategy, with significant price drops in cities like Huai'an and Yancheng [4]. - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 14 key monitored cities decreased by 1.83% month-on-month and 9.05% year-on-year [5]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is facing challenges, with increasing listing volumes leading to a longer de-stocking cycle of 16.8 months, indicating weakened market absorption capacity [6]. - Analysts predict that without significant external positive factors, the second-hand housing market may experience simultaneous declines in both volume and price in the second half of the year [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The national real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with a significant narrowing of the decline in sales and prices since the beginning of the year. As of June, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 9.4 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - New home prices have seen a monthly average decline of 0.2%, while second-hand home prices have decreased by 0.4% on average per month, both showing a smaller decline compared to the monthly average levels of 2024 [1] - The introduction of supportive policies, including a special loan program expanding to 8.5 trillion yuan, has positively impacted risk management for real estate companies [1] Group 2: Performance Disparities Among Developers - There is a notable divergence in performance among real estate companies, with state-owned enterprises and some central enterprises experiencing a sales recovery, with some revenue growth exceeding 30% year-on-year due to their focus on first-tier and key second-tier cities [2] - In contrast, many private and small real estate firms, primarily holding assets in third and fourth-tier cities, have faced significant revenue declines due to weak market demand and financial pressures from asset devaluation [2] - The overall asset-liability ratio of real estate developers remains high, with many companies experiencing a decrease in annual sales capacity and cash flow pressures [2] Group 3: Market Challenges and Adjustments - The real estate market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with changes in supply and demand dynamics. The purchasing power and income expectations of residents have not returned to the levels seen during the "golden era" of real estate [3] - Urbanization is shifting focus from rapid development to more concentrated growth in urban clusters, leading to diminished demand in previously booming third and fourth-tier cities [3] - The slowdown in urban residents' income growth and the decline in financial product yields have negatively impacted buyer confidence, leading to more cautious purchasing behavior [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue its contraction in the second half of the year, with a projected year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area of around 5% and new and second-hand home prices expected to drop by 2% to 4% [6] - The ongoing high asset-liability ratios and declining investment returns will continue to pose challenges for real estate companies, with an anticipated investment decline of approximately 10% for the year [6] - The market is unlikely to see a significant rebound in prices, with expectations of a more stable supply-demand relationship emerging over the medium term [6] Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize the real estate market, it is recommended to implement targeted macro and industrial policies, including lowering mortgage rates and optimizing housing tax incentives [7] - Increasing the supply of residential land in first-tier and key second-tier cities is suggested to meet local housing market demands [8] - The introduction of public REITs and enhancing non-bank financing channels for large real estate firms are recommended to alleviate cash flow and debt pressures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with sales, investment, and prices continuing to decline, leading to a shift in the sector's contribution to GDP from positive to negative [5][6][25]. Group 1: Current Market Status - The real estate market has experienced a deep adjustment since the second half of 2021, with key metrics such as sales area and sales revenue dropping to 60.4% and 56.9% of their 2021 peaks by 2024, respectively [8]. - By the first half of 2025, the sales area and revenue further declined to 57.6% and 50.9% of the same period in 2021, indicating a continued downward trend [11]. - The inventory of unsold properties has increased significantly, with a 47.6% rise in unsold area by 2024 compared to 2021 [8]. Group 2: Price Trends - New home prices in first- and second-tier cities showed signs of stabilization in late 2024 and early 2025, but began to decline again in the second quarter of 2025 [9]. - As of June 2025, new home prices fell by 3.7% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices dropped by 6.1%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous periods [17]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from a positive to a negative impact, with its value added decreasing from a peak of 9 trillion yuan in 2021 to a projected 6.3% of GDP in 2024 [25][26]. - Real estate investment accounted for approximately 20% of fixed asset investment, becoming the largest drag on overall investment growth [28]. - The construction industry, heavily reliant on real estate, has seen a significant reduction in employment, with nearly 13 million migrant workers leaving the sector from 2021 to 2024 [31]. Group 4: Fiscal Implications - Land sale revenues have declined sharply, affecting local government finances. In 2024, land sale revenues fell to 4.87 trillion yuan, down from a peak of 8.71 trillion yuan in 2021 [34][35]. - The reliance on land sale revenues for local government budgets has decreased from 35.9% in 2021 to 17.3% in 2024, limiting fiscal capacity [35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate market is currently in a slow bottoming phase, with long-term demand supported by urbanization, population growth, and housing improvement needs [9]. - The transition from a high-growth model to a more stable one is ongoing, with the need to manage market adjustments carefully to prevent excessive price fluctuations [40][41].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen second-hand housing market shows signs of recovery with a recorded 1,184 transactions last week, representing a 5.2% week-on-week increase, ending a continuous decline trend [1] - As of August 4, 2025, there are 76,156 valid second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen, an increase of 645 from the previous week [1] - Despite a decrease in viewing volume due to heavy rain, the signing volume of second-hand residential properties increased significantly by 17% week-on-week, indicating a faster decision-making process among clients [1] Group 2 - In July, the new housing market in Shenzhen saw a net signing of 2,664 units, a decrease of 18.7% month-on-month, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 3.4% to 4,656 units, although still below May's levels [1] - The average listing price for second-hand homes in Shenzhen in July was 62,706 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 0.2% month-on-month increase, driven by price stability in popular properties and concessions in others [1] - The bargaining rate in July was 8.3%, an increase of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating a slight increase in negotiation flexibility [1] Group 3 - The housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing a traditional off-season in July, with a downward trend due to lower-than-expected policy implementation since June [2] - The increase in second-hand listings and significant price drops in the past suggest continued high trading activity in the second-hand housing market, supported by favorable loan conditions [2] - The new housing market is expected to show a pattern of "star projects being hot, while most developments remain flat," indicating competitive pressure and greater adjustment challenges compared to the second-hand market [2]

Group 1 - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in the first seven months decreased by 13.3% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the decline compared to the first half of the year [2] - Poly Developments ranked first with sales of 163.2 billion, followed by Greentown China at 136.8 billion and China Overseas Property at 131.95 billion [2] - In July alone, the sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies fell by 18.2% year-on-year, with companies like Jianfa, China Jinmao, and Binhai Group showing strong sales performance [2] Group 2 - The average sales revenue for the top 10 real estate companies was 101.03 billion, down 13.6% from the previous year, while the second tier (11-30) averaged 25.63 billion, down 15.2% [2] - The number of companies in various sales tiers changed, with the 1000 billion and above tier decreasing by one to five companies, while the 500-1000 billion tier remained stable at six companies [3] - As of July 30, about 62 listed real estate companies had released mid-year profit forecasts, with 11 expecting losses, 28 continuing losses, and 17 anticipating profit increases or turnaround [3] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need for sustained macro policies and indicated that more policy support is expected to stabilize the real estate market [3] - The market performance in July showed weak transaction activity in key cities, with the second-hand housing market continuing a "price-for-volume" strategy [3] - The real estate market is still in a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, with a structural opportunity for "good cities + good houses" expected to persist [3]

Group 1: Current Real Estate Market Conditions - The real estate market is gradually moving out of the "hard landing" risk, entering a longer and more moderate adjustment phase[6] - As of June 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities have experienced 25 consecutive months of negative growth, with 56 cities seeing price declines in June[6] - In the first half of 2025, sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing decreased by 42.4% and 49.1% respectively compared to the same period in 2021[6] Group 2: Economic Impact and Challenges - The contribution of the real estate sector to GDP has shifted from positive to negative, with its value-added share dropping from 8.3% in 2020 to 6.3% in 2024[7] - The real estate sector's drag on GDP growth has been increasingly evident, with a negative contribution of -0.12 percentage points in 2024[7] - The ongoing decline in housing prices is causing a reduction in consumer spending and increasing financial risks for real estate companies[9] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Establish a "Real Estate Stability Fund" at the central level with an initial scale of around 2 trillion yuan to support troubled projects and acquire idle land[14] - Increase fiscal support for local governments to mitigate the impact of declining land sales revenue and enhance their ability to stabilize the real estate market[14] - Implement measures to alleviate liquidity risks for real estate companies, including encouraging mergers and acquisitions among firms facing financial difficulties[15]

按泷珀花园销售人员介绍的信息，以51平方米这一户型为例，相较于之前1.17万元/平方米的价格，当 前7800元/平方米的售价，相当于打了66折。 不仅是普通商品房源，该楼盘叠墅房源的价格，也进行了下调。 销售人员告诉记者，目前叠墅销售单价在1.2万元-1.3万元/平方米左右。而据房天下数据，惠州泷珀花 园2022年7月普通商品房对外销售均价约1.27万元/平方米，叠墅均价约1.64万元/平方米。以此计，与之 前价格相比，该项目叠墅房源的折扣幅度也不小。 李嘉诚家族旗下企业在惠州开发的一个项目，销售价格进行了幅度不小的下调。 "我们楼盘高层和叠墅的在售房源价格，都有所下调。高层并不是所有户型都有房源在售，像105平方米 的户型现在就没有房源在售了，但72平方米和81平方米的户型，以及51平方米这样的小户型，还有不少 房源在售。总体看，我们还有不少房源可供选择，在售加上待售的房源数量有300多套。"泷珀花园一位 销售人员表示。 该楼盘销售人员告诉记者，像51平方米的高层户型，当前总价在40万元左右，单价在7800元/平方米上 下；而之前这一房型的总价差不多要60万元，折合单价约1.17万元/平方米。其表示，由于房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in sales performance, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% for the top 100 real estate companies in the first seven months of the year, indicating a worsening trend compared to the previous months [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first seven months, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 20,730.1 billion, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year decline, which is an increase in the decline rate by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [4]. - The average sales for the top 10 companies was 1,010.3 billion, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the second tier (ranked 11-30) saw an average sales of 256.3 billion, down 15.2% [4]. - In July alone, the sales of the top 100 companies dropped by 18.2% year-on-year, with companies like Jianfa, China Jinmao, and Binjiang Group showing relatively strong sales performance [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The real estate market is still in a phase of volatility and adjustment, with a continued trend of city differentiation, suggesting that "good cities + good properties" present structural opportunities [3]. - As of July 30, about 62 listed real estate companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen released their half-year performance forecasts for 2025, with 17 companies expecting to increase profits or turn losses into profits [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Losses - The main reasons for the expected losses in the half-year performance of real estate companies include a significant decrease in the scale of project settlements, influenced by sales strategies, pricing, land acquisition costs, development cycles, and product positioning, leading to low gross margins [7]. - The increase in business risk exposure has led to additional asset impairment provisions due to changes in the industry, market, and operational environment [8]. - Some large asset transactions and equity trades are expected to be priced below book value, contributing to the anticipated losses [9]. - The increase in interest expenses on interest-bearing liabilities is also a contributing factor to the losses [10]. - Companies facing financial difficulties may incur provisions for overdue interest, penalties, and losses from the forced sale of mortgaged assets due to inability to repay debts [11].

通过销售面积与销售额的对比，不难发现部分企业正在主动聚焦高端项目，带动整体单价上移。例如， 绿城中国前7个月销售面积629万平方米、金额1368亿元，平均单价超过2万元/平方米，中海地产、华润 置地有限公司的平均单价也在2万元至3万元/平方米之间。 "头部房企通过精准拿地，加速布局改善需求市场，有望形成较好的利润空间。"上海易居房地产研究院 副院长严跃进对《证券日报》记者表示："单价高的项目不仅代表市场认可，也反映出企业产品力和所 拿地块地段资源的优势。" 从各阵营表现来看，今年前7个月，有部分中小房企实现逆势突破。其中，TOP10房企销售额均值为 1010.3亿元，较上年下降13.6%；TOP11至TOP30区间房企销售额均值为256.3亿元，较上年下降15.2%； TOP31至TOP50区间房企销售额均值为125.2亿元，较上年下降7.8%，降幅最小；TOP51至TOP100区间 房企销售额均值为60.0亿元，同比下降13.5%。 7月31日，中指研究院发布的《2025年1—7月中国房地产企业销售业绩排行榜》显示，2025年前7个月， TOP100房企（以全口径销售额排名，下同）累计实现销售总额20730 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its **fiscal policy** impacts on domestic demand, particularly in the context of the post-pandemic recovery period. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance Correlation**: Since 2023, there has been a significant positive correlation between the intensity of China's fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance, a trend not observed before the pandemic [1][4][27]. 2. **Three Key Periods of Fiscal Impact**: - **First Period (2023-2024)**: Initial fiscal stimulus led to a temporary economic recovery, but as fiscal spending slowed, economic momentum weakened [4][5]. - **Second Period (2024)**: Following a strong start to fiscal spending, a decline in fiscal outlays led to a synchronized downturn in economic indicators, with consumption and non-real estate investment both declining [5][6]. - **Third Period (2024-2025)**: A shift to more aggressive fiscal policies stabilized economic indicators, with fiscal spending growth rebounding significantly, leading to a recovery in consumption and non-real estate investment [6][27]. 3. **Post-Pandemic Economic Cycle**: China has entered its first economic cycle since joining the WTO that does not rely on real estate as a growth driver, marking the end of the traditional growth model [2][29]. 4. **Increased Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy**: The impact coefficient of fiscal spending on domestic demand has more than doubled post-2023 compared to pre-2020, indicating a stronger direct effect on consumption [1][17][20]. 5. **Decline of Fiscal Crowding-Out Effect**: The weakening of the fiscal crowding-out effect has enhanced the stimulative role of fiscal spending on domestic demand, especially in a low nominal interest rate environment [2][30]. 6. **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The deep adjustment in the real estate market has diminished the traditional transmission mechanism of monetary policy, although monetary policy remains crucial for creating a conducive environment for fiscal policy [2][31][32]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Methodology for Analysis**: The study utilized a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of fiscal policy on domestic demand, confirming the findings from linear regression analyses [23][24]. 2. **Data Handling Techniques**: The analysis involved seasonal adjustments and standardization of data to ensure comparability across different periods [12][13][14]. 3. **Future Implications**: The findings suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic demand will depend on the continuity and stability of fiscal expansion, as well as the evolving economic environment post-pandemic [30][32]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving role of fiscal policy in shaping China's economic landscape, particularly in the context of a shifting growth paradigm away from real estate dependency.