Group 1 - The current uncertainty is very high, with the Swiss franc being viewed as a safe haven during uncertain times [1] - Economic growth in Switzerland for 2025 is expected to be below previous forecasts [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：经济的关键词是不确定性。 ...

摩根大通首席财务官：经济存在重大不确定性。 ...

Macroeconomic Environment - The US CPI and core CPI growth rates in April were lower than expected, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pushed inflation upward [2] - Retail data in April showed a substantial slowdown, likely due to a decrease in preemptive purchases by households before tariff implementation [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with market predictions for interest rate cuts reduced from three to two [2] - In Europe, officials indicated that US tariff policies could lead to greater recessionary pressures in the Eurozone, potentially allowing for further interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's CPI growth rate in April was negative for the third consecutive month, primarily affected by oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [3] - The PPI decline was exacerbated by falling prices in downstream industries due to tariff impacts [3] - Financial data showed an increase in social financing in April, supported by government bond issuance and a decline in credit bond rates, although corporate and household credit demand remained weak [3] - The central bank emphasized a flexible monetary policy approach, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions remained weak, while agricultural wholesale prices decreased [3] - Steel prices increased, but cement prices fell [3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, while non-ferrous metal prices generally increased [3] Fixed Income Market - The trade relationship has shown temporary easing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [5] - In April, exports to the US saw a significant decline, but transshipment trade supported exports to ASEAN, which increased by 20.8% [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal of over 400 billion yuan did not prevent a decline in funding rates, with DR007 and DR001 falling to approximately 1.50% and 1.40% respectively [6] - The primary market saw 67 new bond issues totaling 946.4 billion yuan, with net financing of 658.7 billion yuan, indicating a higher than usual issuance pace [6] Market Outlook - The upcoming months may see a further manifestation of export rush effects, but domestic inflationary pressures are expected to remain limited [7] - The easing of large-scale policy expectations following positive developments in US-China talks may temper market sentiment [7] - The recent monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to lead to a downward shift in funding rate benchmarks, potentially limiting the rise in bond market yields [8]

然而，美联储迟迟不采取降息行动，这势必会使已经出现的美国经济的下行趋势更加严重，从而导致未 来美联储在美国经济出现加速下行时不得不采取更加激进的降息措施。 当前美国经济面临的最大问题就是不确定性。当经济的不确定性上升时，企业对未来的经营无所适从， 个人消费者则更加倾向于减少消费。而且一旦这种不确定性深入人心就很难在短期内得以恢复。这将导 致美国经济的冷却，甚至陷入衰退。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5月13日公布的数据显示，美国4月CPI年率从前值2.4%小幅下降至2.3%，继续稳步下行。美国4月CPI月 率虽然从前值-0.1%上升至0.2%，但是上升幅度不及预期的0.3%。这反映出美国经济的通货膨胀率并未 出现明显的反弹。 同时公布的美国4月核心CPI年率与上月持平，仍然维持在2.8%。美国4月核心CPI月率从前值0.1%上升 至0.2%，但是同样升幅不及预期的0.3%。 笔者认为，上述最新的美国4月CPI数据比市场普遍担心的通货膨胀率的大幅上升要好得多，支撑美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its robust financial performance, strategic asset management, and favorable market conditions for gold, driven by economic uncertainty and rising gold prices [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Newmont's net income surged to $1.9 billion, over ten times the amount from the same period last year, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.25, exceeding analyst expectations [3]. - Free cash flow reached $1.2 billion, marking a significant achievement despite a production decline to 1.54 million ounces due to recent asset sales [3]. - The total sustaining cost per ounce was $1,651, but the net profit margin improved, with the revenue-cost gap remaining well above $1,000 per ounce [3]. Asset Management - Newmont has strategically divested six smaller, less profitable mines, generating over $4 billion in cash, and is now focusing on 11 long-life, lower-cost mines [1][4]. - The company has a strong balance sheet with $4.7 billion in cash and total debt of $7.5 billion, resulting in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.3 [3][4]. Growth Prospects - Newmont anticipates a total production of 5.6 million ounces for 2025, with over half expected in the second half of the year, driven by projects like Ahafo North in Ghana and the Tanami expansion in Australia [7]. - The company aims to increase production to 6.4 million ounces annually by 2027, supported by the expansion of the Cadia mine and growing global demand for precious metals [7]. Market Conditions - Economic uncertainty, inflation risks, and geopolitical tensions are driving demand for gold, with prices soaring to $3,325 per ounce [1]. - Newmont's diversified operations, including increased copper production post-Newcrest acquisition, reduce operational risks and align with global electrification trends [7][8]. Valuation and Returns - Newmont's forward P/E ratio is approximately 13, with an EBITDA multiple of about 6.4, indicating attractive valuation compared to peers [10][11]. - The company offers a dividend yield of around 2%, with potential for increase if gold prices remain high, alongside an ongoing stock buyback program [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank predicts a significant slowdown in the US economic growth to 1.4% for this year, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024 [1] Economic Outlook - The bank's investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's 10% universal tariffs and erratic trade policies, which may impact the US economy and businesses in the coming months [1] - There is considerable economic uncertainty that has weakened confidence in US assets, as indicated by surveys showing a decline in both business and consumer confidence [1] Data Interpretation - Current soft data regarding economic performance raises questions about whether it will translate into significant hard data weakness, potentially leading to an economic recession [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Amid high international market uncertainty, the Fed's inaction, and persistent market pessimism about the economy, the copper market has weak supply and demand. Although downstream demand recovery is slow and its sustainability is doubtful, domestic copper inventories are generally low. Currently, the market mainly trades on macro - information, and domestic stimulus policies are awaited. Copper prices are fluctuating slightly and moving in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper output of 21,000 tons, and there are concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. In April, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 438,000 tons, with the monthly data unchanged year - on - year. TC/RC fees are negative and the negative value is expanding, and the high sulfuric acid price compensates for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tight [1]. - Demand side: After the holiday, demand recovery is slow, but the downstream operating rate is rising. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%, and orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. The spot copper price is strong, and the market has strong demand expectations under the background of significant inventory reduction. However, the April manufacturing PMI and service industry PMI both declined [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened lower, rose during the day, and closed down, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,450 per ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 119,830 lots, an increase of 1,607 lots; the number of short orders was 108,701 lots, a decrease of 1,677 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan/ton, and in South China was 160 yuan/ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,390 per ton, and the spot premium was $23 per ton [4]. Supply - side Information - As of April 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 19,200 tons, a decrease of 375 tons from the previous period. As of May 8, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 90,400 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 191,800 tons, a slight decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 158,700 short tons, an increase of 2,094 short tons from the previous period [9].

就业市场同样承压，招聘机构调查显示企业正搁置投资计划并缩减招聘规模。毕马威会计师事务所 与招聘和就业联合会（REC）联合调查显示，3月招聘活动持续萎缩，雇主普遍提及"经济不确定性、预 算紧缩及客户活动减少"等因素。REC称："固定岗位招聘量已连续30个月下降，缩减速度与2月基本持 平。" 毕马威高级合伙人乔恩·霍尔特指出："当前全球不确定性达到峰值，企业既要应对市场波动，又要 消化用工成本上升。最新数据印证经济现实持续拖累劳动力市场。" （原标题：英国零售业担忧特朗普关税影响导致商业街客流下滑） 《卫报》4月11日消息，最新数据显示，英国商业街3月客流量同比下降5%，延续了2月的颓势。零 售商警告称，若特朗普关税战引发的经济阴云打击消费者信心，情况可能进一步恶化。 自1月促销季短暂复苏后，通胀回升与家庭收入压力持续影响消费。郊区购物中心受创最重，客流 量下降5.8%，传统商业街和零售园区客流量分别减少4%和1.2%，销售额同步下滑。 英国零售商协会指出，美国对进口商品加征关税的直接影响尚难量化，但可能抑制消费者购买意 愿，尤其是高价商品。该机构首席执行官海伦·狄金森表示："关税引发的全球不确定性及潜在经济放 ...