美国通胀

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旧金山联储主席:今年可能降息多于两次
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 00:11
Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, indicates that there are increasing signs of a softening U.S. labor market, and there is no evidence that tariff-induced price increases are broadly permeating inflation data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The timing for interest rate cuts is gradually approaching, with Daly expressing discomfort over repeatedly making the same policy decisions [1] - The Federal Reserve's forecast of two rate cuts this year (each by 0.25 percentage points) remains appropriate, emphasizing that the key issue is whether to cut rates rather than when to do so, with the possibility of more than two cuts [1] - If inflation rebounds or the labor market strengthens, the number of rate cuts may be fewer than two, but it is more likely that more than two cuts will be necessary [1] Group 2: Employment Market Analysis - Non-farm payroll data does not necessarily indicate an extremely weak labor market, but a comprehensive view of multiple employment indicators shows a clear softening compared to last year [1] - Daly warns that if the Federal Reserve waits too long to confirm that inflation will not have a transmission effect, it may be too late [1]
“7月就业爆雷,9月降息50个基点”——去年夏天正在重演?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-04 07:55
值得注意的是,今年美国经济面临与去年不同的挑战。尽管就业数据疲软,但特朗普政府的关税政策引发了通胀担忧,这是去年所没有的。美联储需判断 经济放缓是暂时现象还是长期趋势。花旗认为,在需求和劳动力市场疲软下,通胀风险小。9月前,更多就业和通胀数据将决定美联储是否果断行动。 当时,美联储在7月会议上选择按兵不动,但随后公布的疲软就业报告迅速扭转了局面,促使官员们在9月会议上采取了激进的50个基点降息"补救"措施。 如今,类似的剧本似乎正在上演,市场正密切关注美联储是否会"故技重施"。 目前市场对大幅降息的预期正在升温。据追风交易台消息,花旗在8月1日的研报中预计美联储将在9月降息25个基点,但如果8月就业数据同样疲软,50个 基点降息的可能性显著增加。 美国就业市场的突然降温,正让华尔街的交易员和经济学家们回想起去年夏天美联储的政策路径。 就业数据全面恶化,经济放缓信号明确 最新的7月非农就业数据显示,美国劳动力市场正在以惊人的速度降温,远低于市场预期。新增就业人数仅为73000人,更令人担忧的是,5月和6月的就业 数据合计被大幅下修了258000人。其中,私营部门在6月仅新增3000个工作岗位,7月也仅增加830 ...
美国6月PCE和7月非农数据点评:就业数据下修、降息可能提前
Bank of China Securities· 2025-08-04 02:49
Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data and the slowdown of 2Q consumer nominal growth indicate that the restrictive policies have had obvious effects, and the Fed may have a more open attitude towards interest rate cuts. There is a possibility that the Fed will advance the interest rate cut to September, but it is still uncertain whether there will be three consecutive interest rate cuts in September, October, and December. The scenario of more than two interest rate cuts within the year requires the decline of inflation data in the next few months as support [2]. Summary by Related Content Non - farm Payroll Data - The US non - farm payroll data in July was lower than market expectations, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward. The non - farm private enterprise average hourly wage increased by 3.91% year - on - year, the third - highest year - on - year growth rate this year. The latest changes in non - farm data are in line with the situation of cooling supply and demand in the labor market mentioned by Fed Chairman Powell [2][4]. Inflation - The increase in the US PCE price in June expanded as expected, which is in line with the assumption that tariffs affect prices. The actual year - on - year growth rate of US personal consumption in June (seasonally adjusted) decreased by about 0.1 percentage points compared with May, while the nominal growth rate (seasonally adjusted) rebounded by about 0.1 percentage points, resulting in an expansion of the year - on - year increase in PCE prices by about 0.2 percentage points. The actual growth of US consumer demand is not strong, and the nominal growth slowed down in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. The persistence of the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be observed [2][6]. Economic Data in the Second Quarter - The restrictive policies have obvious effects. The growth rates of major domestic demand items such as personal consumption, private fixed - asset investment, and government spending have stabilized or declined. The liquidity surplus in the US economy has been significantly alleviated, and the ratios of currency in circulation to GDP and personal consumption have both returned to the 2017 level, which may also have a certain inhibitory effect on the transmission of tariffs to inflation [2][7][9].
50:45通过,特朗普爆粗口,美16州“造反”,憋6个月的拜登出山了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 22:30
Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing political polarization in the United States since Trump's presidency, highlighting his aggressive actions against the Democratic Party and the resulting tensions across the country [1][3][9] - Trump's administration has been characterized by the removal of over 80 regulations from the previous administration and the revocation of security clearances for key Democratic figures, which has intensified the political conflict [3][5] - The article notes that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated due to Trump's trade policies, leading him to pressure the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, which has been repeatedly denied by Chairman Powell [3][5] Group 2 - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is growing, as he has successfully appointed members who favor interest rate cuts, potentially increasing his power over monetary policy [5][7] - The Democratic Party is actively opposing Trump through legal challenges and public protests, indicating a significant mobilization against his administration's policies [7][9] - The article concludes that the ongoing political strife is overshadowing the concerns of ordinary Americans, with both parties entrenched in a battle for power [9]
中信证券:特朗普关税政策会对美国通胀影响几何?
智通财经网· 2025-08-02 08:28
Core Viewpoint - The current round of Trump's tariff policy is characterized by its universality and significant increase in tax rates, with expectations that the cost pressure from tariffs will gradually be passed down to downstream consumers, leading to an upward trend in inflation in the US in the second half of the year [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections US Key Inflation Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial indicator compiled monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reflecting changes in consumer prices across a basket of representative goods and services [2]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, capturing a broader economic consumption structure with dynamically updated weights [2]. Impact of Previous Tariff Policies - The tariffs imposed during Trump's first term (2017-2018) had a limited impact on overall US inflation due to several factors, including the smaller value of goods affected and a strong dollar that mitigated cost increases [3]. - Despite the limited scale of the tariffs, they did contribute to a 0.2% increase in domestic product prices and an estimated contribution of 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to the core PCE index in 2018 [4]. Current Tariff Policy Implications - The current tariff policy is expected to exert upward pressure on core goods inflation, with signs of increasing inflationary pressure already evident [5]. - A comprehensive increase in tariff rates by 10 percentage points could lead to a rise in the PCE inflation level by as much as 1.2 percentage points, with short-term estimates suggesting a 1.8% increase in prices due to Trump's tariff policy [6]. Forward-Looking Inflation Indicators - Some forward-looking indicators of US inflation have begun to show warning signs of rising inflation, with the ISM manufacturing PMI price component typically leading the CPI by about six months [7]. - The recent rise in the PMI price component suggests that inflationary pressures may become more pronounced in the latter half of the year, particularly in food and used car prices [7].
"7月不降息、9月大幅降息”?市场热议:美联储是否“去年再现”
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-02 06:55
Core Viewpoint - The recent weak employment report has sparked discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last year's scenario of maintaining rates in July and then significantly cutting them in September, with notable figures like Nick Timiraos and economist El-Erian drawing parallels to the current situation [1][5][8]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The July non-farm payroll data revealed a significant cooling in the U.S. labor market, falling well below expectations and leading to substantial downward revisions of employment figures from the previous two months, indicating potential economic weakness [1]. - Following the weak employment report, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90% [3][4]. - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, stated that the report provides evidence for a potential rate adjustment in September, questioning the extent of the cut [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current employment market's sudden downturn has led to comparisons with last summer's Federal Reserve policy trajectory, where a weak employment report prompted a 50 basis point rate cut in September after initially holding rates steady in July [5][6]. - El-Erian highlighted the possibility of the Federal Reserve repeating last year's pattern, maintaining rates in July and then making a significant cut in September despite seemingly unchanged economic conditions [6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns and Economic Outlook - Timiraos pointed out a critical difference between last year and this year: while inflation was on a downward trend last year, current concerns revolve around potential inflationary pressures due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [9]. - The key question for the Federal Reserve is whether the economic fundamentals are genuinely deteriorating or if the recent slowdown is merely a temporary effect of policy changes [10]. - Rieder noted that if labor market slack increases or job additions remain below 100,000, a 50 basis point rate cut in September could be on the table, although current futures market pricing suggests a zero probability for such a move [11][12].
"7月不降息、9月大幅降息”?市场热议:美联储是否“去年再现”
美股IPO· 2025-08-02 05:28
Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. labor market is prompting discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last summer's policy trajectory, where a weak employment report led to a significant interest rate cut shortly after a meeting where rates were held steady [1][3][7]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - A surprisingly weak employment report has led to speculation about a repeat of last year's scenario, where the Fed maintained rates in July but cut them significantly in September following a disappointing jobs report [3][7]. - The July non-farm payroll data revealed a rapid cooling of the labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' figures being significantly revised downwards, indicating potential economic weakness [3][4]. - Following the weak report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90%, reflecting market expectations for a policy adjustment [4][6]. Group 2: Fed's Potential Actions - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, stated that the employment report provides evidence for the Fed to adjust rates in September, raising questions about the magnitude of the cut [4][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is estimated at 89.6%, while the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is considered to be negligible according to current futures market pricing [6][11]. - The upcoming employment report and two months of inflation data before the September meeting will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Economic Context and Concerns - Notably, the current economic context differs from last year, as inflation is a concern due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which may complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10]. - Timiraos highlighted that the key issue for the Fed is whether the economic fundamentals are genuinely deteriorating or if the recent slowdown is merely a temporary effect of policy changes [10].
美国7月就业数据疲软引发美债大涨 美联储9月有望降息
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 23:07
相比之下,长期美债市场的反应要温和得多。10年期美债收益率盘中最低降至4.229%,为自4月中旬以 来最大单日跌幅;30年期美债收益率则仅微跌0.0077个百分点。 TS Lombard首席经济学家Freya Beamish表示:"在目前这些数据背景下,加之关税传导对通胀的影响有 限,美联储在9月很可能选择降息。"市场策略师Peter Boockvar亦指出,投资者现在"基本可以押注美联 储将在9月降息"。 近期,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒与米歇尔·鲍曼也公开支持降息立场,理由同样是担忧劳动力市场正 在恶化。不过,目前通胀水平依旧不容忽视。根据6月公布的消费者物价指数(CPI),美国通胀年率仍高 达2.7%,明显高于美联储2%的长期目标。如果贸然降息,可能在关税影响尚未完全显现的情况下刺激 出更强通胀。 Bianco Research总裁Jim Bianco在一场网络研讨会上表示,债市目前似乎将就业市场视为"一个必须通过 货币政策加以应对的灾难"。但他同时警告称:"如果像债市那样解读这些就业数据,并认为需要通过宽 松政策来刺激经济,那结果可能不是创造更多就业,而是推高通胀。" 智通财经APP获悉,在一份令人失 ...
非农再差也观望?美联储官员:就业市场风险可能增加,还没准备提高降息预期
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-01 17:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite disappointing non-farm payroll data, the Federal Reserve's decision-making remains cautious regarding interest rate cuts [1][2][3] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes that the July employment data shows significant labor market slowdown, but he is not ready to change his overall economic outlook [2][3] - The July non-farm payroll report revealed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest growth in nine months [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings showed minimal growth, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury prices surged, with two-year Treasury yields experiencing their largest single-day drop in a year, falling 21 basis points to 3.74% [3][4] - Market reactions included a drop in the U.S. dollar index by over 1% and a nearly 2% decline in the S&P 500 index, reflecting heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [4]
海外利率FOMC会议追踪系列点评:9月降息仍需等待数据支持
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-01 10:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate at the 4.25-4.50% range, consistent with market expectations [3] - Economic growth has shifted from a "solid pace" to a "moderate" pace, with consumer spending weakening and the housing market remaining sluggish. The Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 3.0%, primarily driven by a decrease in net imports [4] - Inflation data has shown marginal strengthening, with the June PCE price index increasing by 2.6%, surpassing expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The core PCE price index also rose by 2.8%, indicating uncertainty in the inflation trajectory [5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the potential for a rate cut in September hinges on upcoming data, particularly focusing on core PCE price index trends and unemployment rates. The FOMC will closely monitor these indicators to assess economic balance [5] - There is a noted division among FOMC voting members, with two members voting against maintaining the current rate, highlighting a rare occurrence of dissent within the board. This indicates a split in perspectives among the FOMC members [6]