Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The Shanghai gold futures contract is currently priced at 844.54 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.78% increase [1] - The opening price for the day was 831.02 CNY per gram, with a high of 844.76 CNY and a low of 829.86 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000, with the previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000 [2] - The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 4.00%, aligning with market expectations, leading traders to increase bets on easing, anticipating a total rate cut of 45 basis points by the end of 2026 [2] - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached a record high of 9.159 trillion USD in July, with significant increases from Japan and the UK, while China's holdings fell to 730.7 billion USD, the lowest since December 2008 [2] - U.S. President Trump indicated that an agreement with China regarding the ownership transfer of TikTok to U.S. companies is imminent, although the deadline for divestiture may be extended [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the precious metals market did not experience a significant uptrend, as the positive market sentiment had already been priced in [3] - There is a possibility of profit-taking in the short term, with expectations of further 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings in October and December, providing strong support for precious metals [3] - The upcoming release of important data, including August's PCE, may influence market expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy, leading to potential volatility in the gold market [3] - Global financial markets, including the Chinese stock market, are experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, which may alter market risk preferences; if stock markets adjust, gold prices may remain strong [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% on September 17, marking the first rate cut during Trump's second presidential term [1][3] - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, advocating for a 0.5% reduction before the recent meeting [3][6] - The Federal Reserve's members anticipate two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, each by 0.25% [3][6] Group 2 - Trump is focused on gaining control over the Federal Reserve Board, currently holding three out of twelve voting seats, aiming to secure a majority [6][7] - If Trump successfully removes Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board, he could appoint another member, further consolidating his influence [6][7] - Control over the Federal Reserve Board would allow Trump to influence the selection of the twelve regional bank presidents, potentially reshaping monetary policy [7][8] Group 3 - The current economic landscape shows a stark divide, with the top 10% of income earners benefiting from rising asset values, while the bottom 90% face inflationary pressures [8][9] - The reduction in illegal immigrant labor due to Trump's policies is contributing to rising prices in essential goods and services [9][11] - Upcoming healthcare policy changes and rising insurance costs are expected to further drive inflation [11][12] Group 4 - The anticipated monetary easing could exacerbate wealth inequality in the U.S., with potential political repercussions as the 2026 midterm elections approach [12][13] - Trump's strategies may include redirecting internal conflicts outward, potentially leading to increased political tensions and international crises [12][13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[4] - The market had anticipated a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 96.1% prior to the meeting[7] - This marks a total of 125 basis points cut in the current cycle, with four reductions since the beginning of the cycle[16] Group 2: Divergence in Dot Plot - The dot plot indicates a widening divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members supporting 2 more cuts this year, while 6 members believe there should be no further cuts[8] - One member suggested a reduction to below 3%, implying a need for cuts exceeding 50 basis points in the next two meetings[8] - The voting showed one dissenting vote, with Stephen I. Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to a median of 1.6% while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5%[9] - Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly adjusted upward, with the Fed showing more tolerance for deviations from the 2% inflation target[9] - The Fed's statement highlighted a weakening job market as a significant reason for the rate cut, reflecting concerns over employment risks[10] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.33%, respectively[4] - Short-term Treasury yields declined, with the 3-month yield dropping by 2 basis points[30] - The dollar index showed volatility, initially falling before rebounding by the close of trading[30]

Core Viewpoint - Prudential expects the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts within the next six months before a new administration takes over [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Prudential's fixed income head, Kenneth Orchard, indicates that the market has a more aggressive outlook on the number of rate cuts, leading to expectations of higher short- and medium-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The Federal Reserve would need to lower rates to significantly below 3% to see a decline in the front and middle of the yield curve, as the market has already priced in multiple rate cuts [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Prudential anticipates that U.S. inflation will not decrease, projecting it to remain between 3% and 3.5% over the next 12 months, contrary to market expectations of a decline [1] - There is a growing trend of U.S. Treasury bonds being held by price-sensitive investors, which may impact market dynamics [1] Group 3: Employment Situation - Although the U.S. unemployment rate has seen a mild increase recently, it does not indicate an impending recession, as maintaining approximately 40,000 jobs per month is sufficient to keep employment stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy by lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% due to economic slowdown and rising inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and inflation rates increasing [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August revealed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly down from a revised 79,000 in July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - The Labor Department revised down the projected job growth for the next year by 911,000, raising concerns about the weakness in the U.S. job market [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11 to 1 in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, with only Stephen Milan opposing, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of employment and inflation, indicating that future decisions will be data-driven, particularly focusing on inflation and employment data [3]. - The FOMC's economic forecast summary indicates an upward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.6% and an unemployment rate expectation of 4.5% [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures - President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with previous calls for Powell's resignation [1][2]. - The recent confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor, who aligns with Trump's views, raises questions about the Fed's independence [2][3]. - Powell's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence amidst political pressures is crucial for future monetary policy decisions [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first rate cut of the year and indicating two more cuts may follow this year [1][3] - The new target range for the federal funds rate is now set at 4.0% to 4.25%, following a total of 100 basis points cut in the previous year [1] - Recent data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with a decrease in new job creation and increasing risks to employment [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts note that the 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations, reflecting the Fed's need to balance employment pressures and persistent inflation [3][6] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with significant downward revisions to non-farm employment data, raising concerns about economic slowdown [4][6] - Inflation remains above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's monetary policy decisions [4][6] Group 3 - The recent interest rate cut has diminished the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated assets, leading to a rise in international gold prices [8] - The total U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about the scale and growth of U.S. debt [10] - There has been a significant inflow of capital into emerging markets, with net inflows reaching $256.08 billion from January to August, a 35% increase year-on-year [10] Group 4 - The World Gold Council reports that 95% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, indicating a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [12] - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to declining trust in the dollar, driven by high U.S. debt levels and a restructuring of global order [14]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.0%-4.25%[3] - The Fed's decision reflects rising risks in the labor market, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low[3] - The Fed's economic and inflation forecasts were adjusted, indicating a potential total of 75 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, with increased divergence in expectations[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 1.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates[17] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while projections for 2026 and 2027 were lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively[17] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is maintained at 3.0%, with core PCE also at 3.1%[17] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, market risk appetite slightly increased, with the Dow Jones index rising by 0.57% and the Nasdaq index falling by 0.33%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated but is currently slightly below 4.1%[6] - Gold prices have seen a decline, dropping below $3700 per ounce[6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The Fed faces internal divisions regarding the appropriate path for future rate cuts, influenced by external pressures and economic data[5] - Risks include potential inflation surprises due to international tensions and the possibility of a more severe economic downturn in the U.S.[41]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate remains low but has slightly increased, while inflation has risen and is still at a slightly elevated level. Inflation risks are on the rise, and employment risks are on the decline. Most inflation expectation indicators are expected to align with the 2% target after next year. Price increases driven by tariffs are anticipated to continue this year and next [2]. - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve should observe the developments in tariffs, inflation, and the labor market before deciding to lower interest rates. The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%. This marks the first rate cut since December 2024 [3]. - When asked about the potential impact of White House economic advisor Stephen Milan joining the Federal Reserve on its independence, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is "firmly committed" to maintaining its independence from political influence [2].

Inflation Data - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%) [7] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with July's figures [7] - Energy inflation rose by 1.8 percentage points to 0.7% month-on-month, while food inflation increased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.5% [9] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.2% to 0.3%, primarily driven by a rebound in used car prices, which rose from 0.5% to 1.0% [11] - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent inflation contributing significantly, although its sustainability is questioned [18] - The overall core services inflation maintained at 0.4% month-on-month [21] Employment and Market Sentiment - The initial jobless claims rose from 237,000 to 263,000, exceeding market expectations and marking the highest level since June 2023 [22] - Concerns over the labor market's deterioration are overshadowing inflation concerns, leading to a focus on employment risks [22] - The market continues to favor "rate cut trades," with a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, October, and December [24]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut, which could positively impact global markets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate [1] - This rate cut is different from previous ones due to complex economic data and political dynamics, with the Trump administration pushing for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [1][3] - Current economic indicators, such as weak non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, suggest that a 25 basis point cut is a rational decision, but the government is seeking a more substantial reduction [3][5] Group 2 - The decision on the rate cut hinges on the voting power within the Federal Reserve, with three out of seven members already supporting a cut, and the focus is on securing one more vote [5] - The market sentiment is cautious about a 50 basis point cut, as it may signal economic recession, while a 25 basis point cut is viewed as a liquidity boost [5][7] - Historical precedents show that improper rate cuts can lead to inflation and economic downturns, making inflation data a critical factor in the Fed's decision-making process [7][9] Group 3 - If the U.S. GDP experiences consecutive months of negative growth, the Fed may opt for a more aggressive approach to stabilize the economy, which could include both rate cuts and balance sheet expansion [9] - The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is seen as a necessary measure to provide liquidity directly to the market, especially in times of economic or financial distress [9][11] - The current political pressure on the Fed to cut rates and expand its balance sheet raises questions about how the market will respond to high liquidity and potential inflation risks [11]