Group 1 - The Federal Reserve cannot assume that its benchmark interest rate will not drop to zero again in the future, with a 9% probability of hitting the "zero lower bound" within the next seven years [1] - Current interest rate uncertainty is a significant factor contributing to this risk, with expectations for future rates remaining high compared to the past decade [1] - The analysis is based on interest rate derivatives linked to short-term key rate expectations, such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate [1] Group 2 - There is a 1% probability that interest rates will return to zero within the next two years, following the Fed's previous rate cuts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Since March 2022, the Fed has raised the federal funds rate target range to 5.25% to 5.5% in response to high inflation, moving significantly away from the zero lower bound [2] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the timing of potential rate cuts and the level of the terminal rate, with recent comments indicating frustration from the President regarding the Fed's current policy stance [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs economists now expect the Fed to potentially cut rates in September, three months earlier than previously predicted, due to lower-than-expected impacts from tariff policies and signs of a slowing job market [3] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is estimated to be slightly above 50%, with expectations for cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December [3] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the terminal federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.25%, indicating a shift in expectations while maintaining that the economy could still achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's report indicates a 9% probability that the benchmark interest rate could drop to zero within the next seven years due to increased uncertainty in current interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Projections** - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve cannot assume that the benchmark loan rate will not reach zero at some point in the future [1] - Current data suggests that future interest rate expectations are higher compared to the past decade, but increased uncertainty poses significant risks of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) in the medium to long term [1] - **Historical Context** - The risk of reaching the zero lower bound is noted to be similar to levels observed in 2018, indicating a potential return to previous economic conditions [1]

同时公布的美国5月JOLTs职位空缺从前值739.1万人升至776.9万人，显示出美国就业市场的韧性。 就在上述数据公布的同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在一次研讨会上表示，美国经济处于相当良好的状态。上述经 济数据在一定程度上支撑美联储在7月议息会议上继续维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变。 鲍威尔认为，在今年夏季美国经济的通货膨胀率可能会出现明显的反弹。正是基于这样的预判，美联储迟迟 没有重新启动降息进程。在鲍威尔看来，美国经济正处于适度具有限制性的状态。 不过，特朗普总统一直以来都在催促美联储降息。这也许是因为特朗普总统担心美国经济会出现加速下行的 情况，他希望通过宽松的货币政策来对冲经济的不利因素。 笔者认为，美国经济的通货膨胀未来很可能会继续逐步下降，而非出现大幅反弹，经济的下行也存在着加速 的可能性，届时美联储再采取宽松的货币政策则可能会再次滞后于市场。 如果美国经济未来出现严重的疲软，在明年美联储主席更换后，美联储很可能会加速降息，甚至会再次将美 国联邦基金利率水平降低至零。 7月1日公布的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从前值48.5小幅上升至49，仍然处于荣枯线以下，但是有所 改善。 JerryZang ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration has threatened Harvard University with the loss of all federal funding due to alleged violations of federal civil rights laws regarding the treatment of Jewish and Israeli students [1] - Negotiations between Harvard University and the White House have reached an impasse, jeopardizing the university's financial status and disrupting its foreign student recruitment plans [1] - The Trump administration has indicated that if Harvard does not make sufficient changes immediately, it will result in the university losing all federal financial resources, with potential cuts amounting to billions of dollars in research funding [1] Group 2 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the entire committee for not lowering interest rates, claiming that the U.S. could save trillions in interest costs if they acted appropriately [2] - Trump has previously threatened to remove Powell from his position due to the Fed's reluctance to lower rates as he requested, with the Fed maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting [2]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 4.39% on June 27, down from 4.40% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on June 27, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

特朗普今年4月曾威胁要解雇鲍威尔，这令投资者感到恐慌。在金融市场出现波动后，他改口 称无意解雇鲍威尔。不过，由于对美联储处理利率的方式感到失望，特朗普近期加大了对鲍威 尔的批评力度。 当地时间上周五，特朗普表示，如果鲍威尔辞职的话，他将会很高兴，并将选择一位有降息意 愿的人来担任美联储主席。 这是迄今为止白宫打算明年对货币政策施加更大控制的最明确信号。 当地时间周日，美国总统特朗普再次指责美联储主席鲍威尔， 称其"很糟糕"、"人为地抬高利 率"，并表示利率应该降至目前水平的一半以下 。 "我们的美联储主席很糟糕，但除此之外……这并不重要，经济数据如此之好，他人 为抬高利率也没关系，"特朗普在接受采访时表示。 "利率应该控制在1%或2%，"特朗普表示。"记者问我'还有其他人选吗？'我说'是 的，有。除了鲍威尔，谁都可以。'" 特朗普还表示， 对于下一任美联储主席人选，他心里已有三个名字，但拒绝透露具体是谁 。 美联储本月18日决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，这是该行连续第 四次决定维持利率不变。 鲍威尔的美联储主席任期要到明年5月才结束。特朗普近日暗示他将提前任命鲍威尔的继任 者。 ...

Core Points - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reached 4.40% on June 26, marking a two-month high, up from 4.36% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day [1]

Group 1 - The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Bowman, indicated that the current regulatory approach to leverage requirements has led to unexpected consequences in the market, suggesting a need to reassess this critical capital buffer mechanism [1] - Bowman highlighted that the current Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rules may restrict the trading activities of bank-affiliated broker-dealers in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, potentially impacting the broader market [1] - A reform proposal is expected to be announced by the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators this week, which will adjust the overall leverage ratio rather than just excluding assets like Treasury securities as previously anticipated [1] Group 2 - Bowman criticized the plan requiring large banks to significantly increase capital reserves to address potential crises, which was originally expected to raise capital requirements by 19% under the Basel III final framework, but faced pushback from the financial industry [2] - In terms of monetary policy, Bowman expressed willingness to support a rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline, emphasizing the need to adjust rates to maintain a healthy labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate remains at 4.25% to 4.5%, and Bowman supports this decision while noting that recent economic data has not shown significant impacts from tariffs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Wells Fargo strategists indicates that once the debt ceiling issue is resolved and the Treasury releases a significant amount of short-term securities to rebuild its cash balance, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is likely to be sustained at or above the federal funds rate by late 2025 [1] Group 1 - Wells Fargo's economic team anticipates that the debt ceiling resolution will occur before August 1, with a deadline (X-Date) around early September [1]

骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Dan Siluk指，美联储鸽式按兵不动，并为 2025年下半年降息保持大门敞开。美联储明确传达出不急于行动的讯号，但若通胀持续回落、劳动市场 继续软化，将随时准备采取行动。通胀预测上调或会使市场较不预期大幅宽松政策出现，但对2025年利 率路径维持不变，则是向市场保证了灵活性。 2025年GDP增速自1.7%下修至1.4%，反映对贸易与全球逆风的担忧。失业率自4.4%微幅上调至4.5%， 显示劳动市场已有初步软化迹象。2025年PCE通胀率由2.7%上调至3.0%，核心PCE由2.8%上调至3.1%， 反映关税与能源价格压力。2025年联邦基金利率预测维持在3.9%，预示降息两次;2026及2027年的利率 路径略为上移，长期利率则为3.0%。 骏利亨德森指，总统特朗普呼吁大幅降息1至2.5%并公开批评鲍威尔，凸显美联储所面临的政治压力。 尽管如此，美联储仍决定按兵不动，进一步巩固了其独立性及对双重使命的承诺。经济预测摘要(SEP) 显示，尽管通胀风险依然存在，但经济与劳动市场预测留有宽松的空间，若情势恶化仍可考虑降息。 骏利亨德森提到，接下来，市场将密切 ...