| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 2025年12月29日 | | | | | 叶偏古 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | | 1016.30 | 1008.76 | 7.54 | 0.75% | 元/牙 | | AG2602合约 | | 18319 | 17397 | 922 | 5.30% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | 686 de | 657.65 | 29.30 | 4.46% | | | PD2606合约 | | 529.05 | 578.45 | -49.40 | -8.54% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月24日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | | 4562.00 | 4 ...

【12月29日早盘现货白银价格波动，年内涨超160%】12月29日早盘，现货白银价格一度突破83美元/盎 司，涨幅近6%，随后快速跌至75美元附近，维持窄幅震荡。截至10:09，现货白银跌2.03%，报77.72美 元/盎司，年内涨超160%，显著跑赢黄金涨幅。当前白银已进入严重超买区间，后续或快速回调释放压 力，或高位横盘消化涨幅。不过，这并不意味着牛市结束，支撑贵金属长期上涨的逻辑未变，包括美联 储降息周期开启、全球央行购金持续、地缘风险升温以及对货币信用的长期担忧。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.29 12:42:15 周一 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 现货白银:早盘冲高回落,年内涨超 160% 可归 【12月29日早盘现货自银价格波动,年内涨超 160%】 12月29日早盘,现货白银价格一度突破83 美元/盎司,涨幅近6%,随后快速跌至75美元附 近,维持窄幅震荡。截至10:09,现货白银跌 2.03%,报77.72美元/盎司,年内涨超160%,显著 跑赢黄金涨幅。当前白银已进入严重超买区间,后 续或快速回调释放压力,或高位横盘消化涨幅。不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions, weak dollar performance, and year-end liquidity issues [2][3][4]. Group 1: Silver Price Movements - On December 29, spot silver prices opened rapidly, breaking through $80 per ounce and peaking at $83 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 5% and a cumulative annual increase of $52 [1]. - Following this peak, silver prices quickly retreated, with a maximum drop of over $6 within 30 minutes, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9, ultimately settling at $76.5 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of over 3% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - Geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar have contributed to a strong demand for precious metals, maintaining their historical upward trend as year-end liquidity remains thin [3]. - Analysts from UBS have indicated that precious metal prices are currently at high levels, with increased short-term trading risks as investors may seek to take profits [3]. - The demand for safe-haven assets remains robust, supporting investment in gold and silver, while thin market liquidity amplifies price volatility [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - A significant amount of liquid silver is stored in New York, awaiting results from a key U.S. Department of Commerce investigation regarding mineral imports, which could lead to adjustments in silver tariffs and other trade restrictions [3]. - Commodity analyst Manav Modi noted that the high volume of paper silver trading requires physical silver support, and current physical silver supply is insufficient to meet demand, impacting paper trading [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - Silver prices are influenced by its industrial applications, including electrification, solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers, with demand in these sectors driving inventory depletion [4]. - A substantial influx of capital into the precious metals market has led to rising silver prices, supported by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4]. - The primary driver of recent silver price increases is a structural supply-demand imbalance, with physical silver in short supply prompting concentrated market purchases [4]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment - According to a Kitco News annual silver survey, a majority of retail traders are optimistic about silver's performance in 2026, with expectations for further price increases [4]. - Among surveyed retail traders, 57% anticipate silver prices will exceed $100 per ounce in 2026 [5]. - Additionally, 27% expect prices to range between $80 and $100 per ounce, while 11% predict a high of $60 to $80 per ounce [6]. - A small minority, 5%, believe prices will retreat to the $40 to $60 per ounce range seen in late 2025 [7].

山海：切勿跟风黄金市场，保持自己的专属节奏！ 现在刷遍网络，大家都看到了，贵金属这轮的上涨已经是资本市场炙手可热的话题，不管是从事这个行业的人还是不是从事这个行业的人，茶余饭后都在讨 论这波黄金，白银，铂金，钯金到底能为什么能涨，到底能涨到哪里，还能不能参入其中。山海在这里需要给大家提个醒，虽然现在市场很热，看似方向明 确，但却是上涨的尾巴，风险大于利润，山海认为这个时间周期黄金，白银将出现不可控的暴涨，暴跌空间，不仅仅能涨，下跌也可能随时走出来，所以， 现在这样的状态，山海宁可多保持观望，而不是激进疯狂的追随市场。 本周市场的基本看法和交易原则保持不变，基本看法是看涨，交易原则还是等待每天的调整做多，只要大方向不变，交易原则就不变，即使它每天都刷新高 点，但没有回落到我们认为的关键点，交易是宁错过不做错，所以，本周更多的建议是多观察，少操作。就目前市场热度来看，上周的连续大涨，每天刷新 高点，但今天早盘开盘，出现了暴涨空间，可看出市场已经出现了疲软的状态，那么，本周有可能会出现上周的回吐空间，上周起涨点在4336，本周如果跌 倒4336后，市场就由极强转为高位震荡，到时候市场相对回归正常，就可以做技术面的涨 ...

来源：赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 现货黄金于12月29日亚洲交易时段突现跳水，盘中跌破4500美元/盎司关键心理关口，日内跌幅达 0.71%，而白银更从涨近6%转为暴跌近5%，引发市场对贵金属短期见顶的担忧。 一、价格异动核心原因 地缘风险降温：特朗普称俄乌冲突"接近达成协议"，削弱避险情绪，触发多头抛售。 流动性不足与获利了结：瑞银警告当前涨势受流动性短缺推动，存在快速回落风险；圣诞假期前夕部分 投资者选择高位套现。 技术面破位信号：4500美元为多空分水岭，跌破后触发程序化卖盘，短线支撑下移至4470-4480美元区 间。 二、市场反应与观点分歧 看多逻辑未改： 长期支撑因素仍在：美联储2026年降息预期（概率65.3%）、全球央行购金（前三季度净购902吨）、 美元信用体系重构。 机构目标价高企：高盛看4900美元，摩根大通看5055美元，认为回调是"倒车接人"。 谨慎派警示风险： 技术指标超买：RSI达74-80，花旗预警短期或回调至4300-4400美元。 历史教训：10月金价两度触及4380美元后闪崩（单日暴跌6.3%），洪灏等投资人在4500美元主动离 场。 国内金饰价突 ...

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 2025年12月29日 | | | | | 叶偏古 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | | 1016.30 | 1008.76 | 7.54 | 0.75% | 元/牙 | | AG2602合约 | | 18319 | 17397 | 922 | 5.30% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | | 686 de | 657.65 | 29.30 | 4.46% | | | PD2606合约 | | 529.05 | 578.45 | -49.40 | -8.54% | 元/克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 12月26日 | 12月24日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | | 4562.00 | 4 ...

| W | | | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 76.454 | | 昨结 | 79.329 | | 开盘 | | 79.256 | | -2.875 | -3.62% | 总量(kg) | 0.00 | | 现主 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 83.971 | 持 包 | | 0 タト | 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 75.073 | 指 ਿ | | 0 B | 醫 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 围K | 月K | | 車 名 | 0 | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:- | | 盘口 | | | 83.971 | | | | 5.85% | 荧1 | 76.510 | 0 | | | | | | | 331 | 76.460 | 0 | | | | | | | | 09:42 76.449 | 0 | | | | | | | | 09:42 76.454 | 0 | | | | | | | 0.00% 0 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a significant drop after reaching an all-time high of $84 per ounce, with a decline of 5% observed in trading [1] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest weekly decline since June, which typically benefits gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - The silver market is experiencing a structural supply-demand imbalance, leading to a rush for physical silver, with buyers willing to pay a premium of up to 7% for immediate delivery [2] - Silver's performance has outpaced gold due to its smaller market size and tighter inventory, with significant supply shortages reported in regions like China [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver is nearing 80, indicating that the recent price increase may be excessive [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surpassed that of oil for the first time in 45 years, driven by strong demand for the precious metal and an oversupply of oil leading to lower fuel prices [3]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have reached a record high of $76.486 per ounce, significantly higher than the $56.74 per barrel price of U.S. crude oil [3]. - Demand for silver is robust from both investors and industrial buyers, particularly in sectors like solar energy, where nearly 30% of annual silver production is consumed [4]. - The competition for silver is intensifying as industrial buyers, including those in the solar panel industry, compete with investors who are shifting from gold to more affordable silver [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The surge in gold prices has led to increased silver imports in countries like India, where silver is favored by savers [5]. - Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also seeing a shift, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, priced at $71.12 per share, compared to the SPDR Gold Trust at $416.74 per share [5]. - The supply of silver is constrained, as it is primarily a byproduct of mining other metals, and the global pure silver reserves are nearly depleted [5]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Silver bulls argue that the gold-silver ratio is around 60, suggesting potential for silver prices to rise significantly [6]. - Conversely, some analysts predict a decline in precious metal prices, forecasting silver to drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [7]. - The oil market is also under pressure, with expectations of a 21% drop in oil prices by 2025, which could further impact the silver market if the price ratio reverses [8].

Group 1 - The current demand for silver from investors and the industrial sector is extremely high, with both physical and financial assets being accumulated for wealth storage and as a hedge against risks associated with the US dollar and other currencies [3][4] - In the real economy, the demand for silver is robust, particularly from jewelry manufacturers, medical device producers, electric vehicle manufacturers, data center construction companies, and notably, solar panel manufacturers [3][4] - Citigroup analysts estimate that the solar industry consumes nearly 30% of the annual silver production from mining and recycling [3][4] Group 2 - There is little possibility of significant new silver supply entering the market, as global "pure silver" deposits are nearly exhausted, with most silver now being produced as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, gold, and zinc [3][4] - John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, indicates that changes in silver supply are often driven by the demand for other metals rather than silver itself [3][4] - There are warnings that precious metal prices are at a "cliff edge," with accumulating risks of a price correction [3][4]