智通财经APP获悉，5月23日，中国有色金属工业协会发布的中国铝冶炼产业月度景气指数监测模型结 果显示，4月份，中国铝冶炼产业景气指数为64.4，较3月份上升2个点，进入"偏热"区间底部；先行合 成指数为80.7，较3月份上升4.7个点。近期行业发展过程中存在一些波动，但铝冶炼产业经济运行整体 趋势向好。先行指数的上升可能受市场需求预期改善、行业政策支持等多种因素的影响。预计未来一段 时期，我国铝冶炼行业将会继续在"偏热"区间或重回"正常"区间运行。 | 月份 | 先行合成指数 | -致合成指数 | 滞后合成指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2005年=100) | (2005年=100) | (2005年=100) | | | 2024 年 4月 | 622 | 118.7 | 652 | 47.7 | | 2024年5月 | 63.7 | 126.0 | 66.1 | 515 | | 2024年6月 | 65.1 | 132.3 | 682 | 54.7 | | 2024 年 7月 | 66.0 | 136.0 | 70.8 | 56.6 | | 20 ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 23 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 二、行业要闻 作为全球领先的铝生产商之一，阿联酋全球铝业公司 (Emirates Global Aluminium) 宣布计划在美国俄克拉荷马州投资 40 亿美元建设铝厂。唐纳 德·特朗普一直倡导富裕的海湾国家增加对美投资，以规避其关税政策。该 冶炼厂年产能预计达到 60 万吨原铝，建设将于 2026 年底动工，2030 年竣工 投产。EGA 还将与美国国防承包 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) forecasts a 2% increase in China's aluminum demand this year, reaching approximately 44 million tons [1] Industry Summary - ANZ projects that China's aluminum demand will grow by 2% in 2023 [1] - The expected demand level is around 44 million tons, indicating a significant market for aluminum in China [1]

宏创控股拟购买宏拓实业100%股权 5月22日晚间，宏创控股发布公告称，公司拟发行股份购买魏桥铝电、嘉汇投资、东方资管、中信金融资产、聚信天昂、 宁波信铝、济南宏泰、君岳投资、天铖锌铖持有的宏拓实业100%股权，交易作价为635.18亿元。本次交易完成后，宏拓 实业将成为宏创控股全资子公司。 | 事项 | 交易对方 | | --- | --- | | 发行股份购买资产 | 山东魏桥铝电有限公司、济南嘉汇投资合伙企业(有限 合伙）、中国东方资产管理股份有限公司、中国中信金 | | | 融资产管理股份有限公司等九名交易对方 | 5月22日晚间，宏创控股发布公告称，公司拟通过发行股份的方式购买山东魏桥铝电有限公司等持有的山东宏拓实业有限 公司（以下简称宏拓实业）100%股权。根据相关规定，本次交易构成重大资产重组及关联交易。 实现铝产业链的重要扩张 公开资料显示，宏创控股的主营业务为铝板带箔的研发、生产与销售，主要产品为铝板带、家用箔、容器箔、药用箔、 装饰箔等。 宏拓实业是全球领先的铝产品制造商，目前是全球最大的电解铝生产商之一。业务涵盖了电解铝、氧化铝、铝深加工的 铝产品全产业链，拥有电解铝年产能645.90万 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the transformation and upgrading of the aluminum industry in Linqu through innovation, showcasing the integration of technology and aesthetics in aluminum products [1][2] - Linqu International Convention and Exhibition Center serves as a significant platform for the development of the aluminum industry, with a planned construction area of 210,000 square meters and an exhibition area of 104,000 square meters [2] - Linqu has established itself as a hub for aluminum processing, with 78 aluminum processing enterprises and over 460 related supporting companies, achieving an industrial output value exceeding 45 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The innovation in aluminum profiles has earned Linqu the titles of "Aluminum City of China" and "Door and Window City of China," reflecting its leadership in the aluminum industry [2] - The local aluminum industry ecosystem is comprehensive, featuring a complete range of products including energy-saving doors and windows, industrial aluminum materials, and decorative profiles [2] - The event "National Mainstream Media Presidents' Visit to Weifang" aimed to promote the achievements and innovations in various fields of Weifang, leveraging the influence of media to foster development [2]

Group 1 - The project "Research on the Mechanism of Geological Disaster Risk and Prevention in the Wumeng Mountain Area" led by the China Geological Environment Monitoring Institute has made significant breakthroughs in key areas since its implementation in 2024, including the distribution patterns of geological disasters, mechanisms of major geological disaster instability, and risk analysis software development [1][2][16]. - The project focuses on the Zhenxiong County as the core research area, revealing major controlling factors and deep disaster mechanisms of geological disasters in the Wumeng Mountain area through the study of disaster material basis, stratigraphic structure, and geomorphological styles [2][16]. - Advanced technologies such as thermal infrared remote sensing and artificial intelligence have been utilized to develop new methods for slope deformation detection and intelligent models for precise identification of landslide hazards, providing technical support for geological disaster investigations in Yunnan Province [2][16]. Group 2 - The project has established a geological structure model for landslide susceptibility in coal mining subsidence areas and improved a three-dimensional scientific observation system for typical landslides, revealing the destruction patterns and instability mechanisms under coal mining activities [2][17]. - The next steps include expanding the research to include key counties such as Yiliang, Yanji, and Daguan, enhancing the coupling analysis of geological disaster data, and promoting the efficient transformation of research results into practical applications to support regional economic and social sustainable development [3][17].

铝土矿氧化铝后市展望 20250521 摘要 氧化铝行业经历高开工后，随着新产能释放，供过于求压力增大，导致 价格从高利润向亏损边际转变。近期价格反弹主要因前期行业减产导致 供应紧张，提货困难和现货短缺支撑了价格。 氧化铝与电解铝运行比值是评估市场供应状况的关键指标，超过 2.05 表明过剩，低于 2.05 趋紧，低于 2 则供应紧张。2024 年进口矿使用比 例显著上升至 70%-80%，国产矿大幅减少，几内亚矿石占比高，影响 全国成本。 几内亚矿石价格波动直接影响国内氧化铝生产成本，运输周期约为两个 月。若能使用 70 美元/吨的矿石，山西、河南等地成本或降至 2,900 元/ 吨，沿海地区降至 2,700 元/吨，成本降幅预计 300-400 元/吨。 氧化铝行业利润快速下滑至亏损，企业通过检修式和战略性减产应对。 4 月底全国 21 家企业停工或检修涉及 900 万吨产能，部分已恢复，总 运行水平将从 8,600 万吨向 9,000 万吨递增。 今年国内氧化铝新项目投产进展显著，文峰、华生等项目预计新增产能 约 1,000 万吨，魏桥集团产能置换也在推进。电解铝需求稳定增长，但 受设备维护和价格回升影 ...

几内亚Axis矿区停产消息继续支撑氧化铝价格，国内氧化铝主力合约早盘震荡小幅上行，领涨期市，收 涨1.55%，报收3138元/吨。 几内亚仍为我国铝土矿最大进口来源国，且进口量仍在持续增长。海关总署数据显示，2025年1-4月， 中国累计进口铝土矿6777万吨，同比增加34.3%。分国别看，自几内亚累计进口铝土矿5312万吨，占进 口总量的78.38%，同比增加42.2%。由于我国铝土矿进口依存度高且高度依赖几内亚的铝土矿供应，因 此当几内亚矿端出现扰动时，氧化铝价格将会出现剧烈反应。 具体来看，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回了51份矿业许可。据Mysteel调研核实，"几内亚Axis 矿区被列入政府撤销采矿许可证名单，勒令在运行矿山的采矿设备暂停，开采被迫全部中止。该矿区涉 及产能约4000万吨/年，恢复时间不明"。该矿区2024年产量约2300万吨，其中顺达矿业约1300万吨，中 电十一局约1000万吨。据悉，相关企业正在与几内亚政府进行商谈，具体影响有待评估。此消息引发市 场对铝土矿原料供应担忧。Mysteel表示，几内亚某其他大型铝土矿矿山的探矿权证也被政府列入了撤 销名单，此举是标志着政府整改范 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Guinea has revoked mining rights for several bauxite mines, including the Axis mine, which is expected to produce 24 million tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 5% of global demand [1] - DBS Bank predicts that if this situation persists, it may reverse the declining trend in bauxite prices that has been ongoing since Q2 2025, potentially leading to tighter supply [1] - China's domestic bauxite resources are limited, meeting only about 30% of its demand, while Guinea accounts for over 80% of China's imports [1] - The revocation of mining rights in Guinea may alleviate the oversupply of alumina in China, driving prices to recover from their lows [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - China Hongqiao (01378) holds a 25% stake in SMB in Guinea, which has established mature transportation channels capable of providing 55 million tons of bauxite annually, sufficient to meet its domestic alumina production needs, thus unaffected by the mining rights revocation [2] - China Hongqiao has an alumina production capacity of 17.5 million tons in China and is expected to benefit directly from the increase in alumina prices, enhancing its business profit margins [2] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reported a decline in overseas alumina prices in Q1 2025, with the average price around $518 per ton, a 40.88% increase year-on-year but a 2.98% decrease compared to the average price in 2024 [2] - China Aluminum (02600) reported annual revenue of approximately 237.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, with a net profit of about 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [3] - The alumina segment of China Aluminum achieved a pre-tax profit of 11.685 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the previous year, while the primary aluminum segment saw a pre-tax profit decline of 2.288 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Electric Power Investment Energy plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyinhu Coal Power from State Power Investment Corporation Inner Mongolia, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's asset scale and business strength [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will be conducted through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, with specific transaction prices yet to be determined as the audit and evaluation of the target assets are still ongoing [1][2]. - The transaction is classified as a major asset restructuring and related party transaction [1]. - Baiyinhu Coal Power has shown strong performance, with projected revenue of 11.402 billion yuan and net profit of 1.396 billion yuan for 2024 [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Baiyinhu Coal Power's revenue for 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 is reported at 7.362 billion yuan, 11.402 billion yuan, and 2.911 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 543 million yuan, 1.396 billion yuan, and 430 million yuan [3]. - Electric Power Investment Energy's total assets, net assets, and operating income are expected to increase significantly post-acquisition, improving the overall asset quality and profitability of the company [3]. Group 3: Company Background and Business Segments - Electric Power Investment Energy was established in 2001 and has been listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange since 2007, rapidly entering the thermal power and electrolytic aluminum sectors through acquisitions [4]. - The company has experienced steady growth in revenue and net profit for four consecutive years, with 2024 revenue reaching 29.859 billion yuan and net profit at 5.342 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.23% and 17.15%, respectively [5]. - The company's business segments include electrolytic aluminum, coal, thermal power, and renewable energy, with revenue contributions of 52.46%, 34.14%, 5.8%, 4.48%, and 0.99% respectively [5]. Group 4: Recent Financial Trends - In Q1 2025, Electric Power Investment Energy reported revenue of 7.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.63%, while net profit decreased by 19.82% to 1.559 billion yuan due to rising operating costs [6]. - Despite the decline in net profit, the company's financial position remains stable, with a net operating cash flow of 1.766 billion yuan, up 31.06% year-on-year, and a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.14%, which has decreased by over 1 percentage point since the beginning of 2025 [6].