Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impressive growth of Pop Mart, with a projected revenue increase of no less than 200% and an adjusted profit growth of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025, compared to the previous year [1] - The overseas market has become a key driver for Pop Mart's growth, with expectations that overseas revenue will surpass domestic revenue for the first time in 2025 [2] - The company has expanded its global footprint significantly, with over 180 stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas regions by June 2025, marking a net increase of nearly 50 stores since the end of 2024 [2] Group 2 - The launch of the Labubu IP has driven significant engagement, leading to Pop Mart's app reaching the top of the shopping charts in the US App Store and the company being included in TIME's list of the 100 most influential companies [3] - Online sales have surged, with a record-breaking single-day GMV of over $5 million during a mid-year promotion on TikTok Shop in the US [3] - Despite the impressive performance, challenges such as product quality issues and the potential bubble in blind box economics pose risks to the company's growth trajectory [4] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.4 billion, 14.9 billion, and 20.5 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong future profitability [5] - The establishment of Pop Mart's film studio and the upcoming project "LABUBU and Friends" aim to expand the brand into the content industry, enhancing its IP value [5] - Seasonal events and the company's 15th-anniversary celebrations are anticipated to further boost growth in the latter half of the year, reflecting a shift towards emotional consumption [5]

Core Insights - LABUBU has become a global sensation, attracting attention from celebrities and consumers alike, symbolizing a significant breakthrough for Chinese cultural brands in the global market [1][5][7] - The rise of LABUBU can be categorized into three phases: initial popularity in Southeast Asia, expansion into the European and American markets, and a strong resurgence in the domestic market [5][10][11] Phase Summaries - **Initial Popularity**: LABUBU gained fame in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand, driven by influencer marketing from celebrities like Lisa, which led to a peak in Google search interest [5][7] - **Expansion into Western Markets**: In 2024, LABUBU's parent company, Pop Mart, focused on penetrating North America, achieving significant revenue growth of 726.6% year-on-year, with LABUBU becoming the top IP for the company [7][10] - **Resurgence in Domestic Market**: Following international success, LABUBU sparked a buying frenzy in China, with social media buzz driving consumer interest and sales [10][11] Key Events - April 24: LABUBU launched its third-generation plush product, leading to a surge in social media interest and app downloads [11][18] - May 2025: The product's popularity resulted in a secondary market where prices doubled, indicating high demand [11][18] - June 8: Pop Mart's founder became the richest person in Henan, highlighting the financial impact of LABUBU's success [17][18] Market Dynamics - LABUBU's success is attributed to effective IP management and marketing strategies, including leveraging social media and celebrity endorsements to enhance brand visibility [30][31] - The company is exploring new content projects and expanding its IP universe to maintain consumer engagement and brand longevity [27][33] Industry Context - The Chinese toy market is projected to grow significantly, with LABUBU representing a key player in this expanding sector [23][30] - The phenomenon of LABUBU illustrates the potential for Chinese cultural products to compete on a global scale, marking a shift in the international perception of Chinese brands [1][5][30]

海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 潮玩 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 19 日 泡泡玛特 25H1 盈喜点评：二季度利润增速不低于 350%，核 心 IP 全球化加速及海外规模效应显著提升盈利能力 事件：北京时间 2025 年 7 月 15 日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）发布 2025 年上 半年正面盈利预告。公司 2025 年上半年，公司收入增速预期不低于 200%； 经调整溢利增速预期不低于 350%，主要系泡泡玛特品牌及旗下 IP 在全球认 可度进一步提升及海外收入占比持续提升优化盈利能力。 点评：25H1 收入同比不低于 200%，相比一季度水平推算二季度加速增长。 根据此前发布的一季报经营数据，公司 25Q1 整体收入较去年同期同比增 长 165%-170%。 海外市场高速增长，全球化布局成效凸显 2025 年上半年，公司收入增速预期不低于 200%；经调整溢利增速预期不 低于 350%，主要系泡泡玛特海外收入占比持续提升，收入结构优化对毛利、 溢利均产生积极影响。同时，随着海外门店加密，规模效应使溢利显著增 加。截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日，公司全球拥有 530 家泡泡玛特门店。根据 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that Bubble Mart's H1 2025 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, with revenue expected to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, reaching at least 13.673 billion yuan, and profit expected to increase by no less than 350%, amounting to at least 4.489 billion yuan [4][3] - The increase in performance is attributed to the global recognition of the company's IP, a diverse range of product categories driving revenue growth across cities, and a continuous rise in overseas revenue share, which has higher gross and profit margins compared to domestic sales [4][5] - The company has accelerated its overseas store expansion, with a total of 160 stores by the end of H1 2025, and notable growth in TikTok live-streaming sales, indicating a strong global influence of its IP [5][6] Group 2 - The report on XCMG Machinery indicates that the domestic demand for construction machinery is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales in the first five months of 2025 increasing by 26% year-on-year [9][10] - XCMG's proactive internal reforms and diverse product lines are expected to help the company maintain its leading position in the industry, with projected revenues of 101 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 131.8 billion yuan by 2027 [10][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for XCMG's mining machinery segment to become a second growth curve due to increased capital expenditure from overseas mining companies and improved technology [10] Group 3 - The energy sector report notes that coal production in June 2025 increased by 3% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed compared to May, with total coal production for the first half of 2025 reaching 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Electricity generation in June 2025 was 796.3 billion kWh, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with thermal power generation showing a slight increase of 1.1% [13][15] - The report concludes that while supply is contracting, demand remains stable, leading to a significant reduction in coal inventories at northern ports, which is expected to stabilize coal prices [19][20] Group 4 - Wanda Film's H1 2025 net profit is projected to be between 500 million and 560 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 340.96% to 393.87%, despite a forecasted loss in Q2 2025 due to a weak film market [21][22] - The company is focusing on transforming its cinemas into comprehensive entertainment spaces, with a 10% increase in merchandise gross margin in H1 2025 [23][22] - Wanda Film has a robust content pipeline with multiple films and series set to release, alongside strategic investments in new business lines such as trendy toys and interactive experiences [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The company has released a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting revenue growth of no less than 200% and profit growth of no less than 350% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company's revenue was 4.558 billion yuan, with a profit of 964 million yuan, and a fair value change loss of financial instruments of 33 million yuan [1] - Based on the positive forecast, the estimated revenue for the first half of 2025 is at least 13.764 billion yuan, with a profit of at least 4.489 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 33% [1] - Revenue growth in Q1 2025 is projected at 165-170%, with Q2 expected to exceed 200% [1] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - The significant revenue increase is attributed to the expansion of IP and product offerings, particularly the rising global recognition of the Pop Mart brand and its products [1] - Overseas revenue has seen substantial growth, with Q1 2025 showing a 475%-480% increase, including 895%-900% growth in the Americas and 600%-605% in Europe [1] Group 3: Profitability - The net profit margin is expected to rise to 33% in the first half of 2025, up from 20% in the first half of 2024 and 26% in the second half of 2024 [1] - Factors contributing to the improved net profit margin include product structure optimization, price adjustments due to tariffs, and enhanced cost control measures [1] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its overseas business share, focusing on key cities in the US and Europe, and aims to open 100 stores abroad by 2025 [3] - New product categories will continue to be launched, maintaining a strategy of limiting SKU numbers to ensure quality and manage costs effectively [3] - The company anticipates that overseas revenue will exceed 50% of total revenue, with North America potentially matching the sales volume of the Chinese market by 2020 [3] Group 5: Market Development - The company is actively working on a comprehensive platform that includes various product lines such as accessories and building blocks, enhancing its operational capabilities across the entire toy industry chain [2] - Recent supply increases have aimed to balance supply and demand, particularly in response to market disruptions caused by scalping activities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pop Mart, announced a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting revenue growth of no less than 200% and profit growth of at least 350% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the expected revenue is 13.673 billion, with a profit base of 999.7 million from the first half of 2024 [1] - The profit margin is improving due to a higher proportion of high-margin products and regions, along with continuous cost optimization [1] Group 2: Channel Expansion - The number of retail stores in mainland China has increased to 177, up 40.5% from 126 at the beginning of the year [1] - North America has seen a doubling of stores from 26 to 53, with ongoing expansion in key coastal areas and new regions [1] - Southeast Asia has added 9 new stores, while Europe has opened 10 new stores, indicating strong demand in new markets [1] Group 3: Product Development - New IP products are gaining popularity, with the Zsiga series receiving 4,084 likes, and the SP series achieving 5,080 likes, marking historical highs [2] - Collaborations with external IPs such as The Monsters and Disney are enhancing brand reach [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is in a clear upward cycle regarding IP, products, and channels, with significant room for growth in single IP value compared to global leaders [3] - The company plans to focus on the sustainable operation of IPs and the expansion of product categories [3] - Updated revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 30.994 billion, 42.415 billion, and 52.922 billion, with adjusted net profit expectations of 10.336 billion, 14.353 billion, and 17.992 billion respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company has announced a significant earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth expected to be no less than 200% and profit growth no less than 350% compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - The report highlights the company's strong IP (Intellectual Property) long-term operational capabilities, with a focus on expanding product categories and enhancing brand presence in new markets [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,301 million RMB - 2024: 13,038 million RMB - 2025E: 30,994 million RMB - 2026E: 42,415 million RMB - 2027E: 52,922 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 36% in 2023, 107% in 2024, and 138% in 2025 [6][8] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,184 million RMB - 2024: 3,220 million RMB - 2025E: 10,336 million RMB - 2026E: 14,353 million RMB - 2027E: 17,992 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 107% in 2023, 172% in 2024, and 221% in 2025 [6][8] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company has increased its retail presence in mainland China, with a total of 177 stores, a 40.5% increase from the beginning of the year [7] - The company is expanding its international footprint, particularly in North America, where the number of stores has doubled to 53, and in Southeast Asia, with 9 new stores [7] - New product launches have shown strong market engagement, with several IP products achieving record popularity on social media [7] Updated Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with expected revenues for 2025-2027 now at 30.994 billion RMB, 42.415 billion RMB, and 52.922 billion RMB respectively [7] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period have also been increased to 10.336 billion RMB, 14.353 billion RMB, and 17.992 billion RMB [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in H1 2025, with revenue projected to increase by no less than 200% year-on-year, reaching at least 13.673 billion RMB, and profit expected to grow by no less than 350%, reaching at least 4.489 billion RMB [5][8] - The company's global IP recognition and diverse product categories are driving revenue growth across various cities, with overseas revenue contributing significantly to profit margins [8][11] - The expansion of overseas stores and the successful performance of products on platforms like TikTok are enhancing the company's market presence and profitability [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of July 16, 2025, the company's stock price is 252.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 339.23 billion HKD [4][12] - The company has shown a remarkable 572.8% increase in stock performance over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.797 billion RMB, 41.415 billion RMB, and 49.772 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.405 billion RMB, 12.848 billion RMB, and 15.514 billion RMB [10][12] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 10.037 billion RMB, 13.611 billion RMB, and 16.438 billion RMB for the same years [10][12] Product and Market Expansion - The company has accelerated the launch of new products, with 47 new blind box products and 26 MEGA products introduced in H1 2025, reflecting a strong market response [11] - The company is also focusing on expanding its product categories, including potential entry into the small home appliance sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has issued a strong half-year earnings warning, with revenue growth exceeding 200% and net profit growth exceeding 350%, but major Wall Street firms believe the performance "only roughly meets high expectations from buyers" [1][4][10] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by no less than 200%, indicating revenue of at least 13.7 billion RMB, surpassing Goldman Sachs' expectation of 187% year-on-year growth [3][10] - The net profit, excluding changes in the fair value of financial instruments, is expected to grow by no less than 350%, meaning a net profit of 4.5 billion RMB, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of 3.8 billion RMB [3][10] - The net profit margin has significantly improved to approximately 30%, compared to 20% in the first half of 2024 and 26% in the second half of 2024 [3][12] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Revisions - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027, with the target price increased from 227 HKD to 260 HKD, maintaining a neutral rating [2][11] - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its earnings predictions, increasing the 2025 revenue forecast from 280.11 billion RMB to 303.85 billion RMB and the adjusted EPS from 6.10 RMB to 7.15 RMB [13] - Both firms expect significant growth in revenue and net profit, with compound annual growth rates of 23% and 25% for 2025-2027, respectively [13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - After a 60% increase in stock price over the past three months and a staggering 588% rise over the past year, Morgan Stanley warns of potential profit-taking pressure in the short term [5][8] - Despite the strong performance, Morgan Stanley remains cautious about short-term stock price movements, suggesting investors buy on dips [8] Group 4: Catalysts for Future Growth - Morgan Stanley has identified five key catalysts to watch: the opening of two new "POPOP" jewelry stores, the premiere of the "Labubu & Friends" animation series, the launch of Labubu x Uniqlo T-shirts, the anticipated release of Labubu 4.0, and the potential introduction of interactive/AI toys [9][10]

Group 1 - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) fell by 3.57% to 253.8 HKD despite a strong earnings forecast, with a market capitalization of 340.8 billion HKD [1] - Pop Mart expects its revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to increase by no less than 200% compared to the same period in 2024, and profits to grow by no less than 350% [3] - For the first half of 2024, Pop Mart's revenue is projected to be approximately 45.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, potentially exceeding 136 billion RMB [3] Group 2 - The significant revenue growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's brand and IP, diverse product categories, and continuous high growth in all regional markets [3] - The overseas revenue proportion is increasing, positively impacting gross profit and net profit, alongside scale effects and improved cost management [3] - The LABUBU IP from the THE MONSTERS series generated 30.4 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 726.6% [5] Group 3 - Following a large-scale restock of the LABUBU 3.0 series, the secondary market prices for LABUBU products dropped significantly, leading to a sell-off by scalpers [6] - Pop Mart's stock price reached a historical high of 283.4 HKD on June 12, but subsequently fell by 17.7% over six trading days, resulting in a market value loss of nearly 40 billion HKD [6] - JPMorgan raised its net profit forecast for Pop Mart to 9.4 billion RMB, reaffirming its position as a preferred choice in the Chinese consumer sector with a target price of 340 HKD [6]