年末全球金融市场呈现罕见 "分裂行情"，贵金属与美股强势攀升，而加密资产持续回调。特斯拉首席执行官马斯克对白银价格 的突然暴涨发声担忧，进一步凸显了这一市场异动的全球影响力。与此同时XBIT去中心化交易所多位资深分析师基于宏观经济 结构变化与资金流向，发布了对 2026 年加密市场趋势的前瞻性研判，为投资者提供了关键参考。 近期白银价格上演 "狂飙" 行情，过去一周涨幅超 17%，年初至今累计上涨 64%，其迅猛涨势引发产业界与金融市场的双重关 注。马斯克在社交媒体上回应相关报道时直言 "这可不好"，强调白银作为工业生产关键原材料的重要性，其价格暴涨可能对制 造业成本构成压力。与贵金属的火热形成鲜明对比的是加密市场的降温，比特币自 10 月触及 126,000 美元历史高点后持续回 落，目前在 90,000 美元附近徘徊，而黄金同期涨幅已达 20%，美股也在年末阶段加速上行，市场呈现显著分化格局。 XBIT 核心研判：贵金属上涨反映货币体系结构性转变 加密市场分歧：比特币估值低估 修复窗口可期 对于市场高度关注的加密资产走势分歧，XBIT去中心化交易所加密市场分析师给出了独到见解。在美股走高、贵金属创纪录的 ...

目前市场普遍预计美联储在2026年将实施两次降息，首次可能在年中左右进行。与此同时，市场对美国 总统特朗普可能任命偏鸽派的美联储主席的猜测升温，进一步强化了"更宽松货币政策"的预期，对黄 金、白银等无息资产构成重要支撑。 新华财经北京12月29日电上周（12月22日至26日当周）国际现货黄金周度上涨超4%，周线实现三连 阳。当周金价开盘4338.85美元／盎司，最低4338.05美元／盎司，最高4549.9美元／盎司，报收4531.96 美元／盎司，当周上涨193.36美元或4.46%。 不过，虽然现货黄金上周五将历史高点刷新至接近4550美元／盎司的位置、年度累计涨幅72.69%，但 黄金并不是上周贵金属市场的明星，白银的走势更为凌厉，国际银价上周五最高涨破79美元／盎司关 口，今年累计涨幅173.72%。另外，铂金紧随白银，年涨幅也达171.8%，即便是基本面相对偏弱的钯 金，至上周的年涨幅也达到了112.39%。 分析来看，上周公布的数据显示，虽然美国GDP整体表现超预期但隐忧浮现，加上地缘局势提升避险情 绪和降息预期共振下，尽管外围市场迎来圣诞节假期，但贵金属市场2025收官大战仍在疯狂上演。 展望新 ...

Market Volatility - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver initially rising over 5% before dropping more than 3%, and gold seeing a maximum decline of nearly $80 per ounce [1][2][4] - As of December 29, 2023, silver was priced at $80.37 per ounce, reflecting a 1.31% increase, while gold was at $4516.06 per ounce, down 0.36% [2][4] Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the increased volatility to the upcoming New Year holiday and potential adjustments in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to heightened market fluctuations [6][8] - The trading heat in the silver market is driven by a perceived shortage, with increased trading volume and delivery amounts, although there are concerns about profit-taking and market cooling as the delivery month ends [8] Future Outlook - Despite short-term price corrections, industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for precious metals, predicting a challenging environment for prices to decline significantly [8][9] - The precious metals market is expected to be influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's independence crisis, the weakening of the dollar, and a potential silver supply crisis, which could support higher prices in the future [9][10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases, while silver could outperform gold due to industrial demand and supply constraints [9][10]

Core Insights - The silver market has experienced an unprecedented surge, with silver prices increasing by over 170% in 2025, leading to a significant shift in investor interest from gold to silver [1][2][3] - The recent price movements have prompted gold merchants to pivot towards silver, indicating a changing landscape in the precious metals market [4][5] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 26, COMEX silver futures reached $79.675 per ounce, up approximately 170% from the beginning of the year [1] - NYMEX platinum futures also saw a substantial increase, with a year-to-date rise exceeding 178% [1][2] - Other precious metals, including palladium and gold, have also shown strong performance, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce and palladium futures up over 110% for the year [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, which have driven industrial demand for silver [2][8] - The market is witnessing a structural supply shortage of silver, further supporting its price increase [8] - The shift in focus from gold to silver is evident, with increased discussions and interest in silver investments on social media platforms [5][7] Group 3: Industry Implications - Merchants traditionally focused on gold are now actively engaging in silver sales, reflecting a broader trend in the precious metals market [4][5] - The rising prices have led to a notable increase in consumer inquiries and sales of silver, with some merchants reporting depleted inventories [5][6] - The changing dynamics suggest that silver is being re-evaluated as a standalone investment asset, driven by its industrial applications in green energy and technology [8][10]

华联期货分析称，宏观方面，美国11月CPI同比增速2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%，宏观经济数据进一步 提升美联储降息预期；此外美联储主席更迭可能加速推进降息。基本面来看，目前白银供应端增长显著 乏力，而需求端有明显增量，工业需求已成为核心的增长引擎，今年全球光伏产业用银量显著提升，同 时，新能源汽车和AI数据中心的发展也将带来大量需求，据世界白银协会发布的最新数据，2025年全 球白银市场的供需缺口预计超1亿盎司，白银市场连续第五年处于供应短缺状态。此外，全球白银ETF 持仓不断增加，可流通库存偏紧的格局为银价提供了弹性支撑。因此，在战略资源、金融属性和工业属 性的三重驱动下，白银中长期走势预计保持强劲。操作上建议AG2602多单继续持有，参考支撑区间 14000-14200。 12月29日，国内期市贵金属板块涨跌参半。其中，沪银期货主力合约开盘报18210.00元/千克，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪银主力最高触及19998.00元，下方探低18027.00元，涨幅达9.58%附 近。 新湖期货指出，芝加哥商品交易所宣布将于29日收盘后全面上调黄金、白银等贵金属期货的履约保证 金，表示对贵金属市场异 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 2025/12/29 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 美国第三季度GDP超预期增长，流动性支撑，黄金价格 上涨。截至上周五，美黄金报收4562美元/盎司，周内 上涨4.4%，关注上方压力位4620，下方支撑位4500。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0 ...

新湖期货：市场不安情绪有所加重，警惕金银价格波动风险 五矿期货：金银价格的见顶，预计将发生在新任联储主席暗示降息结束的阶段 东吴期货表示，最新数据层面，上周美国三季度国内生产总值年化初值为4.3%，高于前值3.8%与市场 预期3.3%，短期看强化了经济仍具韧性的叙事；但耐用品订单10月环比下降22%，工业产出10月环比下 降0.1%后在11月回升0.2%，同时消费者信心指数12月降至89.1较11月的92.9回落。增长数据不差，但需 求端与信心端偏软，市场就会更在意未来是否需要更多宽松而不是现在是否过热。地缘方面，泰柬暂时 停火，但俄乌和平计划仍现分歧，美国与委内瑞拉关系仍旧紧张，另外，以色列再次空袭黎巴嫩，中东 局势再次升级等因素共同构成风险溢价的底盘。预计短期黄金白银仍有上行动能，但需警惕白银过快上 涨之后的大幅回调。后续重点关注美联储政策表态、联储主席候选人情况、俄乌和平计划情况等。 蒙特利尔银行（BMO）资本市场的大宗商品分析师在其2026年的官方展望中表示，2026年贵金属有上 涨的空间，尽管白银可能无法保持目前的历史高点。分析师表示，虽然黄金的多年涨势将在2026年继 续，但"相比之下，我们对白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with sharp price fluctuations observed in silver, platinum, palladium, and gold, raising concerns about potential market corrections and risks associated with speculative trading [9][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - COMEX silver initially surged over 7% but later turned to a slight increase [2] - Spot platinum dropped over 7% during trading but later narrowed its decline to 3.6% [3] - NYMEX platinum fell more than 9% before recovering to a decline of less than 5% [4] - NYMEX palladium initially rose about 5% but then plummeted, with a peak drop exceeding 6% [6] - Both gold futures and spot prices shifted from gains to losses [7] Group 2: Weekly Performance - Last Friday, the precious metals market saw a broad surge, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 3.98% [9] - Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 4.44% [9] - COMEX silver futures skyrocketed by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.06% [9] - Spot silver surged 10.24% to $79.196 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 17.87% and a year-to-date increase of 175% [9] - Spot palladium rose 14.24% to $1,923.4 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 12.63% [9] - Spot platinum increased by 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce, accumulating a weekly rise of 24.31% [9] Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at unsustainable levels, with a potential correction expected as enthusiasm for gold wanes, predicting silver prices may drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [9] - The chief analyst at CITIC Futures noted that while long-term bullish factors exist, the rapid short-term price increases have been excessively traded, leading to heightened speculative sentiment and potential risks to market stability [9] - Market analyst Tony Sycamore described the silver market as experiencing a "generational bubble," driven by strong demand and supply imbalances, alongside expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 [10] - To mitigate market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications to encourage risk management and set trading margin requirements and price limits for the upcoming New Year period [10]

3. 12月20日，美国海军以迅雷不及掩耳之势，在加勒比海对一艘名为世纪号的民用游轮展开了突袭。 5. 当世纪号被迫改变航线，驶向美国休斯敦的转运区时，这场所谓的执法行动的真实面目彻底暴露。原本计划运往中国市场的能源资源，此刻正被源源不断 地输送到美国本土的炼油厂。 6. 特朗普总统一声令下，让整个事件更显讽刺。世上再没有比零成本侵占他国资源更高效的交易了。一方面，美国高举禁毒维稳的道德旗帜，另一方面却毫 不遮掩地将其他国家的资源收入囊中，并且宣称这些物资不仅仅是缴获战利品，还要补充美国的战略能源储备。 7. 这是一场既夺命又夺财的强盗式掠夺。需要注意的是，这艘船所载的货物极为庞大。无论是传闻中的180万至200万桶原油，还是美国海岸警卫队确认的 108万桶原油，都代表着一笔无法估量的巨额财富。 8. 对于位于遥远的亚洲的中国采购方来说，这意味着巨额资金瞬间化为乌有，早前支付给委内瑞拉的预付款也瞬间成为泡影。 9. 更加令人震惊的是，美国所构建的逻辑链条：他们强行将马杜罗政权定义为非法政权甚至是恐怖实体，然后以此为依据，宣称该国的所有自然资源，包括 石油、黄金、钻石，都应归美国处置。 1. 我替美国夺石油！我 ...

摘要周一(12月29日)亚市盘中，贵金属全线转跌，现货黄金跌破4500美元，现货白银抹去日内逾6%的涨 幅，跌幅达2.00%，现货钯金大跌6.8%，下破1800美元/盎司；现货铂金跌幅扩大至4%。一方面是因为 多头获利了结，一方面是因为市场对俄乌和平前景的预期有所升温，打压避险需求。 光大期货：短时间内银铂不断刷新历史新高，波动率快速上升，金银比和金铂比也快速下降，特别是金 银比已快速降至近四十年以来均值下方，这也就意味着风险正在积聚、后市可想象空间正在缩减。另 外，银铂钯也具有较强的商品属性，价格快速上行往往对实体需求造成潜在的抑制作用，因此当下行情 下要防止市场过热出现快速调整甚至多头获利了结下出现"踩踏"风险，追高宜谨慎。 金瑞期货：白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上涨。而中长 期来说，宏观上包括主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，新能 源需求驱动的白银供需矛盾也持续存在，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健。 西南期货：当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和 避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对 ...