Employment Situation Report - Nonfarm payrolls increased by +73K in July, significantly below the expected +100K [1] - The unemployment rate rose by 10 basis points to 4.2%, still considered historically low [1] - Major downward revisions were made to previous months, with June revised from +147K to +14K and May from +144K to +19K, indicating a weaker labor market [2] Wage and Labor Participation - Hourly wages increased by +0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of +3.9% [3] - Labor force participation fell to 62.2%, indicating a less robust labor market [3] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes underemployment, decreased slightly to 7.9% [3] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector added +55K jobs, making it the strongest industry for job growth [5] - Manufacturing experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, losing -37K jobs [5] - The federal government reduced its workforce by -12K jobs, totaling -84K job losses since the current administration took office [5] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the jobs report, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased from +34% to +87% [7] - Bond yields fell significantly, with the 10-year bond yield dropping to +4.27% [8] - Major stock indexes declined in pre-market trading, with the Dow down -330 points, S&P 500 down -53, and Nasdaq down -220 [8] Earnings Reports - ExxonMobil reported earnings of $1.64 per share, exceeding expectations by +10%, but revenues fell -1.59% short [9] - Colgate-Palmolive beat earnings expectations by 3 cents, reporting 92 cents per share, and also exceeded revenue estimates by +1.17% [10] - Regeneron had a notable earnings beat of +60.5%, reporting $12.89 per share [10]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, Nasdaq down 1.38%, and S&P 500 down 0.95% [2] - European major indices also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX down 2.17%, France's CAC40 down 2.39%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.68% [6] Company Specifics - Amazon's stock fell over 7% due to third-quarter operating profit guidance being below expectations and underperformance in its AWS business compared to competitors Microsoft and Google [2][8] - Apple saw an increase of over 1% as its third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations [2] - Reddit's stock rose over 12% after its third-quarter revenue forecast surpassed expectations [2] Futures and Commodities - Dow futures fell by 0.89%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 1.02%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 1.22% [4][5] - Spot gold prices reached $3,330 per ounce, marking a 1.21% increase [9] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline of over 80 points, settling at 99.4, down 0.6% [10]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that the FOMC should adjust interest rates closer to neutral levels [1] - Tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices [1] - Private sector hiring is approaching a "stall speed" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates closer to neutral levels and not wait for labor market deterioration to take action [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes the need for proactive interest rate adjustments [1] - The statement suggests a shift in monetary policy approach to prevent potential economic downturns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates closer to a neutral level [1] Group 1 - Waller emphasizes the importance of aligning interest rates with neutral levels to support economic stability [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in monetary policy direction, which could impact market expectations [1] - Waller's comments reflect ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding the appropriate stance on interest rates [1]

Group 1: Company Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced on July 31, 2025, driven by strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft, indicating renewed investor confidence in Big Tech's AI-driven growth [1] - Meta shares surged 11% on July 31, 2025, after exceeding earnings estimates and providing stronger-than-expected guidance, while increasing AI-related investments [1] - Microsoft stock rose 4% on July 31, 2025, following impressive fiscal Q4 results, pushing its market cap past $4 trillion [1][2] Group 2: Analyst Upgrades - HSBC upgraded Meta Platforms to Buy from Hold with a price target of $900, up from $610 [2] - KeyBanc upgraded Microsoft to Overweight from Sector Weight with a price target of $630 following its fiscal Q4 report [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy rebounded strongly in Q2 2025, with GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing Bloomberg economists' forecast of 2.6% [6] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed price growth accelerated in June, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] Group 4: Market Trends - Easing trade tensions, including a key deal with South Korea setting a 15% tariff on Korean imports, are contributing to a favorable economic environment [5] - ETFs such as Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ) are positioned to benefit from the current economic situation and the ongoing AI rally [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - Economic indicators show a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and inflation is still high [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a moderately restrictive monetary policy seems appropriate, and decisions regarding September's policy will depend on upcoming employment and inflation data [1] Group 2 - The decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, as inflation remains slightly above target and GDP growth in Q2 exceeded expectations [4] - There are uncertainties regarding tariffs that will take effect in August, providing a window for the Fed to assess their impact on prices [4] - Two Fed governors voted against the decision, calling for an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent in over 30 years [7] Group 3 - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, influenced by geopolitical changes and tariff issues [7] - Powell declined to comment on his future beyond his term ending in May 2026, amidst political pressure from the Trump administration [7] - The Trump administration's pressure on the Fed for rate cuts is seen as a conflict with the Fed's mandate to maintain employment and price stability [10]

来源：星岛记事 美国联储局维持利率于4.25至4.5厘不变，连续5次会议按兵不动，香港金管局亦维持基本利率4.75厘不 变。汇丰银行今日（31日）宣布，最优惠利率（P）将维持不变，保留在目前5.25%的水平。对上一次 汇丰调整最优惠利率则在于2024年12月20日，当时减息12.5点子。同时，汇丰给予港元储蓄存款户口的 利率将会维持不变。 中国银行（香港）有限公司宣布，港元最优惠利率及活期储蓄存款利率维持不变，分别为年利率 5.25厘 及 0.25厘；渣打银行（香港）有限公司亦宣布，港元最优惠贷款利率维持不变于年息5.5厘，港元储蓄 户口利率亦维持不变。 金管局："弱方兑换保证"或再度被触发 香港方面，货币及金融市场保持有序运作。港元供应在5月初强劲资金流入后保持充裕，其后市场对港 元需求有所减少，套息交易令港汇走弱。6月底以来，港汇数度触发"弱方兑换保证"，而最近一次是在 今晨纽约交易时段触发。港元流动性逐渐缩减，港元拆息从低位温和上升，但仍显著低于美息。目前港 美息差对套息交易仍具吸引力，因此令港汇继续贴近7.85水平，但与此同时，近日股票相关的港元资金 需求甚殷，为港汇提供一定支持。往后视乎港元资金供求 ...

堂堂美国总统特朗普，居然像个"键盘侠"一样，公开在网上狂喷美联储主席鲍威尔，骂人家是"榆木脑袋"，就为了逼着降息！这可不象啥小打小闹，背后藏 着的是美国经济的"命门"，甚至可能决定中美博弈谁能笑到最后。咱今天就来扒一扒，这场"降息大战"到底咋回事儿。 这不是特朗普第一次"搞事情"。早在2019年，他就公开嚷嚷要解雇鲍威尔，嫌人家加息拖后腿，吓得股市都抖三抖。2020年疫情刚起，他又逼着降息，利率 直接砍到0%，虽说有救市理由，但明眼人都看出这是"政治操作"。到了2024年，眼瞅着中期选举，他又想靠降息和大手笔刺激计划"刷政绩"，这套路咱都 看腻了。 降息这事儿，跟咱老百姓有啥关系？说白了，美国降息可能让咱中国也跟着调整利率。比如你贷款买房，利率降1%，一年能省下不少银子！根据央行数 据，国内住户贷款高达84万亿，降息1%就能省8400亿，等于发了个大红包。进口成本也能降，东西便宜了，大家买得起，消费也热乎了。 再看看中美博弈这盘棋。美国要是降息，通胀一爆发，经济可能又得"跪"，就像尼克松那会儿。而中国呢？利差一缩小，人民币压力减轻，出口进口都能喘 口气。研究机构彭博社的数据显示，中美利差目前有2.6%，如果美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth time this year that rates have been held steady, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's July meeting resulted in no change to interest rates, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, while the labor market remains robust, but inflation levels are still considered high [1] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, which influences the Fed's cautious stance [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, indicating increasing internal policy disagreements [1][2] - The dissenting votes came from Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, both appointed by former President Trump, who favored an immediate 25 basis point rate cut [2] - Chairman Powell stated that the dissenting members would explain their reasons in the coming days, highlighting the ongoing pressures from the Trump administration for rate cuts [2]