每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】 日本超长债：为何利率明显上行 日本超长债：为何利率明显上行？ 近期日本超长债利率明显上升，收益率曲线也明显变陡。背后或主要存 在以下几方面的原因：首先，在关税影响下日本财政扩张倾向增加了市场对债券供给冲击的担忧。其次， 2025 年以来日本国内机构对超长债需求较为疲弱。此外，日本国债拍卖遇冷或也催化了市场对超长债供 需失衡的悲观情绪。不过，此次日元套息交易规模或相对较小，套息交易逆转对全球流动性带来的外溢冲 击或相对可控。未来来看，仍需关注后续日本政府债券拍卖情况是否会进一步冲击市场情绪、日央行是否 会释放鸽派信号缓解市场恐慌、以及 7 月的日本国会参议院选举结果。 美国经济： 4 月美国新建住房及成屋销售同比增速有所回升； 5 月美国 Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 均 超预期回升。截至 5 月 23 日，市场交易层面通胀预期维持稳定。 欧洲经济： 5 月受服务业景气度走弱影响，欧元区 PMI 回落至荣枯线之下； 5 月欧元区 27 国消费者信 心指数小幅回升，但总体仍处相对低位。 政策： 短期美联储降息仍将谨慎；欧央行 6 月或降息； ...

日本超长债：为何利率明显上行？近期日本超长债利率明显上升，收益率曲线也明显变陡。 背后或主要存 在以下几方面的原因：首先，在关税影响下日本财政扩张倾向增加了市场对债券供给冲击的担忧。其次， 2025 年以来日本国内机构对超长债需求较为疲弱。此外，日本国债拍卖遇冷或也催化了市场对超长债供 需失衡的悲观情绪。不过，此次日元套息交易规模或相对较小，套息交易逆转对全球流动性带来的外溢冲 击或相对可控。未来来看，仍需关注后续日本政府债券拍卖情况是否会进一步冲击市场情绪、日央行是否 会释放鸽派信号缓解市场恐慌、以及 7 月的日本国会参议院选举结果。 美国经济： 4 月美国新建住房及成屋销售同比增速有所回升； 5 月美国 Markit 制造业与服务业 PMI 均 超预期回升。截至 5 月 23 日，市场交易层面通胀预期维持稳定。 欧洲经济： 5 月受服务业景气度走弱影响，欧元区 PMI 回落至荣枯线之下； 5 月欧元区 27 国消费者信 心指数小幅回升，但总体仍处相对低位。 报告导读： 近期日本超长债利率明显上升，或主要受日本财政宽松倾向加剧市场对长债 供给冲击和财政可持续性担忧、日本国内机构超长债配置需求偏弱、以及20年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK government is considering taxing retirees to recover the costs of winter fuel subsidies provided to them [1] Group 1 - The proposal aims to address the financial burden of winter fuel subsidies on the government budget [1] - The winter fuel payment is a significant financial support for retirees, especially during colder months [1] - The potential tax on retirees could lead to public backlash, as it may be perceived as unfair to those on fixed incomes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of US-China tariff policies has led to an increase in inventory accumulation by US buyers, resulting in heightened shipping activity on routes to the US, particularly through Shenzhen's Yantian Port, which handles over 25% of China's exports to the US [1][19]. Group 1: Shipping and Logistics Operations - Yantian Port is experiencing a surge in shipping activity, with companies urgently deploying additional vessels to accommodate increased cargo volumes [1][3]. - The peak shipping season has shifted from the traditional July-September timeframe to June and July this year, prompting logistics companies to optimize operations and increase resource allocation [3][5]. - The volume of goods waiting to be shipped has increased by over 60%, with the number of containers rising from around 120 to over 200 [5]. Group 2: Warehouse and Cargo Management - Warehouses are implementing emergency plans to enhance turnover efficiency, operating 24/7 to manage the increased shipping demand [7][12]. - The shipping volume from a cross-border e-commerce warehouse has surged from 40-50 containers daily to a peak of 70, with a 30% improvement in turnover efficiency [12][14]. - Companies have adapted their warehouse designs and operations to better handle the characteristics of e-commerce, such as small batch and multiple shipments [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The increase in shipping demand has led to rising freight rates on US routes, with some shipping companies announcing rate hikes of up to $3,000 for 40-foot containers [15]. - The logistics industry is observing a shift in shipping patterns, with some capacity being redirected to European and Latin American routes, which may affect the timing of shipments to the US [17]. - Many US merchants are utilizing a 90-day window to stock up on inventory, significantly increasing shipping demand and contributing to rising freight rates [19].

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings anticipates that European natural gas prices will continue to experience high volatility, particularly in the context of ongoing adjustments to U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1 - European natural gas prices are expected to remain highly volatile [1] - The volatility is influenced by the adjustments in U.S. tariff policies [1]

证券代码：003019 证券简称：宸展光电 宸展光电（厦门）股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：IR2025-003 投资者关系 活动类别 ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 ■现场参观 □其他 参与单位名称 中金证券、国泰海通证券、Alliance Bernstein(联博基金)、诺安基金 时间 2025 年 5 月 22 日 13:30-15:00 2025 年 5 月 23 日 13:00-14:00 地点 公司会议室 上市公司接待人员 姓名 董事会秘书钟柏安、投关总监赖洲洋 投资者关系活动主要内容： 一、公司经营情况介绍： 2024 年，公司实现营收 22.14 亿元，同比增长 31.76%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利 润 1.88 亿元，同比增长 18.16%。受欧洲客户拉货动能强劲， MicroTouch™品牌业务扩大， 以及控股子公司鸿通科技的新一代产品陆续进入量产等多因素影响，公司营收和利润均实现 两位数增长。 基于 2025 年宏观和微观的环境变化，并结合公司的战略布局和发展目标，公司 2025 年 的主要经营计划如下： （1）ODM、M ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The rise of trade protectionism is leading to significant changes in cross-border e-commerce, with small parcel tax exemptions facing unprecedented challenges [1][2] - Major economies are coordinating to tighten tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce, reflecting a global trend towards stricter regulations [2][3] Group 2: Tax Policy Adjustments - The EU has announced a uniform fee of 2 euros for small parcels entering the EU, marking a fundamental shift from the previous exemption policy for parcels under 150 euros [1] - The U.S. will officially eliminate the tax exemption for parcels valued under 800 dollars by May 2025, which has been a crucial driver for cross-border e-commerce [1] - Japan is considering a 10% consumption tax on low-cost imports valued at 10,000 yen or less, with implementation planned for 2026 or later [2] Group 3: Underlying Reasons for Policy Changes - Data shows a dramatic increase in low-cost imports, with Japan reporting 169.66 million items valued at 425.8 billion yen, five times the volume from five years ago [3] - The EU is facing challenges with 4.6 billion parcels under 150 euros expected in 2024, 90% of which are from China, leading to increased customs pressure [3] - In the UK, over 95% of 100 million overseas small parcels were not subject to safety inspections, raising concerns about tax evasion and safety risks [3] Group 4: Domestic Pressures Driving Policy Changes - Major UK retailers are criticizing tax exemptions for fostering unfair competition from overseas platforms [6] - Governments are grappling with tax revenue losses and regulatory challenges due to the influx of small parcels, which also raises security concerns [6] - There is resistance from consumers and small businesses regarding the potential increase in operational costs and consumer prices due to the removal of tax exemptions [6] Group 5: Impact on Cross-Border E-Commerce - The policy changes will fundamentally alter the cost structure for cross-border e-commerce sellers, particularly those relying on low-margin sales [7] - In the EU, the new 2-euro fee per parcel could eliminate profits for sellers dependent on thin margins, especially with the potential removal of the 150-euro tax exemption [7] - The introduction of a 10% consumption tax in Japan, along with new compliance obligations, will significantly increase operational costs for small sellers [7] - The U.S. policy change will require many previously exempt items to pay tariffs, impacting pricing strategies for sellers [7][9]

欧盟委员会发言人当地时间22日表示，欧盟将不会延长自2022年开始实施、对乌克兰农产品免关税的战 时"自主贸易措施"。欧盟发言人表示，当前针对乌克兰的免关税政策将于6月5日到期，从6月6日起，欧 盟与乌克兰之间的农产品贸易将重新按照双方于2017年签订的贸易协定框架执行。（央视新闻） ...

据央视新闻，美国国土安全部5月22日表示， 特朗普政府已暂停哈佛大学招收国际学生的资格。现有的外国学生必须转学，否则将失去合法身份。 美国前财长萨默斯在社交媒体平台X上发帖称，特朗普政府针对哈佛大学的行动"太过分了"。萨默斯表示， "与来自世界各地数千名最具才华的年轻人为敌是疯 狂之举。" 另据媒体周四报道， 法官禁止特朗普的移民部门撤销国际生的合法身份。 美国暂停哈佛大学招收国际学生资格 美国国土安全部部长克里斯蒂·诺姆在致哈佛大学的一封信中表示，哈佛大学的学生和交流访问者项目（SEVP）认证即日起被撤销。 特朗普政府的这一决定是在美国政府冻结数十亿美元联邦资金后，对哈佛大学造成的最新重大打击。 信中表示，此次认证撤销将使哈佛大学在2025-2026学年不得招收任何持F类或J类非移民身份的外籍学生。此外，现有持F类或J类非移民身份的学生必须转学至其 他高校，否则将无法维持其非移民身份。 此外，美国国土安全部部长诺姆当日还在新闻采访中称， 正考虑在其他大学采取类似举措。 此举意味着哈佛大学将无法再招收国际学生，现有的外国学生必须转学，否则将失去合法身份。 这标志着特朗普政府与美国精英高校的对立进一步升级，冲突 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the European Central Bank's minutes suggest that a rate cut in April may be perceived as a preemptive move for a policy adjustment in June [1]