Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Concerns - The Ministry of Finance has reinstated value-added tax on interest income from government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds since August 8, 2025, with a tax rate of 3%[11] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised public fund sales fee management regulations, imposing punitive redemption fees of at least 1.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5% for different redemption periods[1] Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - As of June 2025, the total scale of bond funds is approximately CNY 11.15 trillion, with individual and institutional investors holding 17% and 81% respectively, translating to CNY 1.88 trillion and CNY 8.99 trillion[2] - If the new redemption fee regulations are implemented, there is a potential for significant capital outflow from public bond funds, which could amplify overall market volatility[1] Group 3: Institutional Responses - Bank wealth management products held CNY 1.38 trillion in public bond funds, accounting for 4.2% of their total holdings as of June 2025[3] - Insurance companies are estimated to hold around CNY 900 billion in public bond funds, maintaining a stable allocation of approximately 2.4%[4] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical cases show that bond fund outflows can be substantial; for instance, from September 2022 to January 2023, bond fund sizes dropped from CNY 5.19 trillion to CNY 4.01 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.18 trillion[9] - Current market conditions suggest that if bond funds experience significant redemptions, the yield on 10-year government bonds could peak between 1.90% and 1.95%[10]

期货研究报告|有色专题报告 2025-09-18 废铜行业税收政策调整对当前行情影响探讨 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 王育武 总体而言，在目前矿端原料持续偏紧，冶炼加工费维持低位的情况下，国家对于再生 资源以及国内涉废企业相关税务规范的整治以及通过反内卷政策挤出相对落后的产能 显然旨在维护国内重要资源未来供应的稳定及消除各地政策执行不统一所形成的"政策 洼地"从而导致产业出现相对不公平竞争的情况。但短期来看，则仍可能对于原料供应 产生一定冲击，而在目前临近美联储议息会议，市场对于降息预期相对较高，叠加"金 九银十"传统消费旺季以及部分国内冶炼厂检修等综合因素的影响，不排除在 9 至 10 月间，铜价或维持偏强态势，对于有买入套保需求的企业在此期间则建议积极逢低买 入套保，而若要进行卖出套保操作的企业则建议在 84000 元/吨至 84500 元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of tax policies, particularly the restoration of VAT on newly issued bond interest, is a significant variable affecting market dynamics, aimed at guiding capital flows and alleviating fiscal pressure [2][3]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - Starting from August 8, 2025, newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT on interest income, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [4][5]. - The gradual adjustment approach allows the market ample time to adapt and mitigates potential financial risks associated with sudden asset value fluctuations [5]. Group 2: Tax Rate and Impact - Financial institutions will pay a VAT of 6% on interest income, while asset management products will be taxed at a simplified rate of 3% due to their diverse investor base [7]. - Small-scale VAT taxpayers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan will be exempt from VAT, indicating limited impact on individual investors, while institutional investors face significant pressure as they hold over 90% of the bond market [8]. Group 3: Rationale Behind Tax Restoration - The previous exemption from VAT was implemented to attract capital into the bond market during its early development phase, which has now achieved its goal with the bond market size reaching 183 trillion yuan, making it the second largest globally [9][10]. - The restoration of VAT is expected to enhance market pricing efficiency by addressing tax burden disparities among different bond types, potentially stabilizing yield curves [10]. Group 4: Effects on Investors - The new tax policy may lead to a temporary surge in demand for existing bonds due to their tax-exempt status, while newly issued bonds may see rising yields [11][12]. - Financial institutions may adjust their asset allocation strategies, favoring indirect holdings of government bonds through asset management products to minimize tax burdens [11][12]. Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The tax policy aims to redirect funds from the bond market to the equity market, potentially revitalizing stock market activity, particularly in high-dividend and growth sectors [13][14]. - The restoration of VAT on bonds is projected to generate over 300 billion yuan in additional annual revenue for the government, aiding in fiscal sustainability and supporting public service functions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The announcement led to an immediate spike in bond yields due to increased holding costs for new bonds, followed by a sharp decline in yields as institutional investors rushed to buy existing bonds benefiting from tax exemptions [1] - The market experienced a rapid shift in sentiment, with traders expressing concerns over the volatility and quick changes in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium to long term, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and existing bonds, prompting a buying spree for existing bonds [2][3] - The adjustment may lead to a shift in investment strategies, with a preference for existing bonds due to their tax advantages, while new bonds may require higher coupon rates to attract investors [2][3] Group 3: Fund Management Adjustments - Fund companies are adjusting redemption limits for bond funds in response to the new tax policy, preparing for potential market volatility [3] - The tax changes are expected to increase the appeal of existing bonds, leading to a strategy of "long existing bonds, short new bonds" among investors [3] Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds may lead to a reallocation of funds from the bond market to equity markets and other asset classes, as the attractiveness of new bonds diminishes [4][5] - Some funds may flow into credit bonds, particularly those with strong credit ratings, as investors seek to optimize returns in light of the new tax burdens [5] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the overall impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with bond funds and money market funds likely to maintain stable yields [3][4] - The long-term demand for government bonds from banks and insurance companies is anticipated to remain strong, as these institutions continue to prioritize asset-liability matching and stable returns [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement caused a spike in interest rates for new bonds due to increased holding costs, but this was quickly reversed as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with initial volatility settling down as investors adjusted to the new information [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium term, but the differentiation between new and old bonds may widen the yield spread, favoring older bonds [2][3]. - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies, with a tendency to favor older bonds that retain their tax-exempt status, while new bonds may require higher coupon rates to attract investors [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Flow Dynamics - The tax policy change is expected to lead to a reallocation of funds, with some capital moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly into stable dividend-paying sectors [3]. - There is a potential shift towards credit bonds, especially those with strong credit ratings, as investors seek to optimize returns in light of increased costs associated with new bonds [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - Some investment firms are planning to focus on "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds, REITs, and equities, to compensate for the expected decline in returns from traditional bond holdings [4].

8月1日，财政部、国家税务总局联合发布了一份《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，引发了行业的热议。 《公告》表示，从2025年8月8日起，国家将对新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入恢复征收增值税，而对2025年8月8日以前已经发行的债 券继续免征增值税直至到期。 为什么是"恢复征收增值税"呢？这是因为，根据财政部、国家税务总局在2016年发布的《关于全面推开营业税改征增值税试点的通知》，国债、地方政府 债及金融同业往来（包含金融债、同业存单等资产）的利息收入免征增值税，这是一个阶段性的优惠政策。 而在2025年8月8日，这个阶段性的优惠政策到期了。未来，不管是个人还是企业，投资由财政部发行的国债、由地方政府发行的政府债和由金融机构（如 银行、保险公司、证券公司）发行的金融债，产生的利息收入，都需要缴纳增值税，适用3%~6%的税率。 「 那么，对国债等债券的利息收入进行征税，对于我们大家做投资会有什么样的影响呢？ 首先，如果是个人投资者，大家投资国债等债券的金额通常不会很大，利息收入就更少，一般达不到需要缴纳增值税的门槛。按照现行政策，增值税小规 模纳税人月收入10万元以下免征增值税，因此绝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, which is expected to impact the bond market dynamics and investor behavior [1][2]. Impact on Investors - The new policy is anticipated to have a minimal effect on individual investors, as they can still benefit from a VAT exemption for interest income below 100,000 yuan per month [2][3]. - Institutional investors may adjust their asset allocation strategies in response to the reduced after-tax yields, potentially shifting towards investments with better tax advantages or higher returns [2][3]. Market Conditions for Tax Resumption - The previous exemption from VAT for bond interest income was a key factor in the growth of the bond market, but the current robust market conditions justify the resumption of taxation [3][4]. - The demand for local government bonds has been strong, with subscription multiples often exceeding 20 times, indicating a healthy market environment for the tax policy change [3]. Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Regulation - The resumption of VAT on bond interest income reflects a flexible tax policy adjustment in response to market changes, balancing fiscal sustainability with macroeconomic regulation needs [4][5]. - The policy aims to address income distribution between the financial sector and other industries, potentially redirecting funds from bond investments to consumer spending, thereby stimulating consumption growth [5]. Tax Neutrality in the Bond Market - The new tax policy aims to reduce the tax burden disparity between different types of bonds, promoting a more neutral tax environment in the bond market [5]. - By aligning the tax treatment of government bonds with corporate bonds, the policy supports the principle of tax neutrality and encourages capital allocation based on risk and return rather than tax incentives [5].

8月1日，韩国股市遭遇重创，首尔综合指数暴跌近4%，创下4月初以来最大跌幅。这一突发性下跌震撼了整个亚洲市场，韩国股市领跌亚太地区。韩元兑美 元汇率同样承压，一度跌破1400关口，为5月19日以来首次触及这一水平。市场恐慌情绪迅速蔓延，投资者纷纷抛售股票，寻求避险资产。 税收政策调整引发市场震荡 韩国政府7月31日敲定的税法修正案成为引爆股市暴跌的导火索。根据财政部公布的提案，企业所得税最高税率将从24%上调至25%，全面撤回前政府推行 的减税政策。这一调整意味着韩国税收政策出现重大转向，企业税负将显著增加。 股票投资相关税收同样面临大幅调整。资本利得税起征额将从50亿韩元大幅降至10亿韩元，征收范围扩大至更多投资者群体。股票交易税率也将从0.15%上 调至0.2%，进一步增加了投资成本。这些措施预计将在未来五年内为政府增加8.2万亿韩元税收收入，创下近年来最大增税幅度。 投资者信心受到严重冲击 开云集团正设法通过出售位于纽约、米兰、巴黎等地的房产来筹集额外资金，管理层表示有信心在2026年初完成相关房地产交易。预计2026年和2027年将有 更多门店面临关闭，这反映出公司正在进行结构性调整以应对市场挑战。 ...

Market Overview - The South Korean stock market experienced a significant drop on August 1, with the Seoul Composite Index falling nearly 4%, marking the largest decline since early April [2] - This decline was attributed to the government's proposal to increase taxes on corporations and investors, leading to cautious sentiment in one of the hottest stock markets globally [2] Tax Policy Changes - The South Korean government plans to lower the capital gains tax threshold from 5 billion KRW (approximately 71,425 USD) to 1 billion KRW, while also increasing transaction taxes [2] - The corporate income tax rate is set to rise from 24% to 25%, reversing previous tax reduction policies [2] - Proposed changes include raising the stock transaction tax from 0.15% to 0.2% and implementing a 20% tax rate on dividend income between 20 million and 300 million KRW, with a 35% rate on amounts exceeding 300 million KRW [4] Investor Sentiment - The proposed tax adjustments have sparked strong backlash among retail investors, with a nationwide petition for immediate withdrawal gaining traction and support [2][3] - Despite the recent market downturn, the Seoul Composite Index has risen over 30% year-to-date, benefiting from optimistic sentiment surrounding corporate governance reforms initiated by the new government [2] Corporate Performance - Samsung Electronics, South Korea's largest company by market capitalization, has seen its stock decline for two consecutive days due to disappointing earnings that fell short of analyst expectations [3] - The market had previously anticipated progress in Samsung's memory chip and foundry businesses, which had driven a rebound in its stock over the past two months [3] Economic Context - The new administration under President Lee Jae-myung aims to bolster weak government finances to increase subsidies and stimulate consumption amid slowing economic growth [2] - The proposed tax increases may undermine the government's support among the active retail investor community and raise concerns among foreign institutional investors who had recently shown renewed interest in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK horse racing industry is facing a severe crisis due to the Treasury's proposal to increase the online betting tax rate from 15% to 21%, which could significantly impact the industry's survival and development [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The horse racing industry is the second largest sport in the UK, contributing significantly to local economies and employment [3]. - Research indicates that the proposed tax increase could lead to a loss of £66 million in the first year and a total of £330 million over the next five years for the UK horse racing industry [5]. - The tax rate adjustment could threaten thousands of jobs, with specific regions like Yorkshire projected to lose 342 jobs [8]. Group 2: Industry Response - The horse racing community has united to protest against the tax policy change, with the British Horseracing Authority launching a petition to "Abolish the Horse Racing Tax" that has garnered support from industry figures and the public [7]. - The horse racing industry supports a complex ecosystem, affecting various sectors from trainers to feed suppliers, and the tax increase could disrupt this supply chain [8]. Group 3: Cultural and Economic Significance - Horse racing is not only a sporting event but also a cultural and economic symbol, with local courts, pubs, hotels, and restaurants benefiting directly from the industry [10]. - The potential decline of the horse racing industry due to tax adjustments could have a significant negative impact on the economies of many towns and villages [10]. Group 4: Ongoing Debate - The British Horseracing Authority is seeking more support to persuade the government to reconsider the potential losses from the tax policy implementation [10]. - There is ongoing debate among parliament members, with some supporting the tax increase for fiscal reasons, while industry insiders warn of the devastating impact on the horse racing sector and the socio-economic system built over the years [10].