Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant challenges for the ruling coalition, which must secure at least 50 additional seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][2]. Group 1: Election Context - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, currently holds 75 non-renewable seats in the Senate and needs to win 50 more to maintain a majority [1]. - The election outcome could lead to various fiscal policies, including cash handouts and potential consumption tax cuts, depending on the coalition's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Possible Scenarios - Scenario A: The ruling coalition retains a majority, increasing the likelihood of cash handouts being included in the 2025 supplementary budget, but no consumption tax cuts in the 2026 tax reform proposal [2]. - Scenario B: The ruling coalition slightly loses its majority, leading to potential alliances with opposition parties, which may result in both cash handouts and temporary consumption tax cuts [3]. - Scenario C: A significant loss of majority may force the ruling coalition to include opposition parties, facing pressure for both cash handouts and consumption tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The cash handout policy, amounting to approximately ¥3.5 trillion (about 0.6% of GDP), is expected to have limited impact on economic growth, with only a projected 0.2% increase in private consumption and 0.1% in GDP [7][9]. - In contrast, a reduction in the food consumption tax from 8% to 0% could lead to a more substantial GDP growth of about 0.5% due to a decrease in the effective consumption tax rate [9]. - Analysts warn that temporary consumption tax cuts may lead to a significant GDP decline of 6% in Q2 2027 when these measures expire, potentially prompting political pressure to extend them [12]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite uncertainties surrounding the election, expectations remain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, maintaining the policy rate unchanged for the remainder of the fiscal year [13].

Group 1 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.599%, the highest level since 2008, driven by concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a record 3.21%, while the 20-year yield hit its highest level since 1999 [1] - Market expectations of fiscal expansion policies due to the Senate elections are contributing to the rise in long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields [1][3] Group 2 - Discussions among Japanese politicians regarding lowering the consumption tax are intensifying ahead of the Senate elections, which may lead to increased economic volatility [3] - The current inflation rate in Tokyo decreased to 3.1% in June from 3.6% in May, but remains high, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to adjust its inflation expectations and accelerate its next interest rate hike [3] - The supply-demand imbalance in the Japanese bond market may worsen, particularly as life insurance companies' capacity to absorb new supply has declined [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan announced plans to slow the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting April next year, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% due to increasing economic risks [4] - The Bank of Japan reiterated its plan to reduce monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds by approximately 400 billion yen (about 2.76 billion USD) each quarter until March 2026, consistent with previous guidelines [4]

Group 1 - The former chief economist of the Bank of Japan, Harukawa Hideo, indicated that if tariff uncertainties dissipate, Japan's inflation could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider raising interest rates as early as this fall [1] - Harukawa believes that the Bank of Japan will likely revise its inflation forecasts upward for both the current and next fiscal years, reflecting a trend where companies are increasingly passing costs onto consumers [1][3] - The Bank of Japan's latest outlook report predicts a 2.2% increase in the core consumer price index for the fiscal year ending in March, while the increase for the following 12 months is only expected to be 1.7% [1][3] Group 2 - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan's price target for three consecutive years, leading to discussions about whether the central bank should take action [2][3] - The upcoming July 20 Senate elections in Japan have made inflation a focal point, with differing views between the ruling and opposition parties on whether to provide cash subsidies or tax cuts [2] - A recent quarterly public opinion survey indicated that the Japanese public believes prices have risen by 20% over the past year, marking the highest recorded increase [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch Cooperative Bank indicates that the Japanese yen may experience short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties, but is expected to gradually recover in the long term [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The potential threat of high tariffs from the U.S. on the Japanese economy is negatively affecting Japan's growth outlook [1] - This situation has weakened market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates [1] Group 2: Currency Forecast - If there are signs that Japan will not face the proposed 25% tariffs from President Trump, the yen is likely to be boosted [1] - The Dutch Cooperative Bank forecasts that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the USD/JPY exchange rate could fall to 140 within 12 months [1]

日本参议院选举可能改变政坛格局，进一步阻碍日本央行加息 金十数据7月14日讯，由于支持减税和宽松货币政策的反对党预计将在7月20日的参议院选举后增强影响 力，日本央行可能面临政治压力，不得不在更长时间内保持低利率。民调显示，日本首相石破茂所在的 联盟可能会失去参议院多数派地位。由自民党领导的执政集团在权力更大的众议院中已经是少数派，因 此两院僵局可能会让反对党在决策过程中拥有更大影响力。一些分析师表示，如果反对派团体施压，要 求日本央行避免加息，以及政府削减消费税，这可能会提高国债收益率，并使日本央行货币政策正常化 的努力更加艰难。UBS SuMi信托财富管理首席日本经济学家Daiju Aoki表示，"执政联盟有50%的可能 会失去参议院多数派地位，可能会导致有关降低日本消费税率的争论加剧，将激起人们对日本财政状况 的担忧，从而推高日本长期利率。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's largest life insurance company, Nippon Life Insurance, anticipates a gradual decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields due to improving demand and progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The company expects the Japanese economy to slow down due to tariff impacts but does not foresee a recession [1] - Concerns about fiscal expansion are heightened due to increased US defense spending requests and the upcoming Japanese Senate elections [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market - There is a risk of rising interest rates, but the Ministry of Finance is reducing the issuance of long-term bonds, which will narrow the supply-demand gap [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to slow down the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting from April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [1] - An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan may occur once in the second half of the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 3: Potential Risks - If US-Japan negotiations falter and have significant economic impacts, there is a possibility that no interest rate hike will occur within the current fiscal year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until 2026 [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - Ongoing tariff issues lack clarity, potentially postponing the Bank of Japan's tightening of monetary policy [1] - The basic forecast remains that Tokyo will reach an agreement with Washington to avoid a 25% tariff threat [1] - If an agreement is reached soon without significant tariff increases, the rationale for a rate hike in October remains intact [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation rates are significantly higher than the Bank of Japan's May forecast [1] - The Japanese economy has performed relatively well so far [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Economist Marcel Thieliant indicates that any delays in negotiations or substantial tariff increases could lead the central bank to postpone rate hikes until next year [1]

Group 1 - Japan's real wages fell by 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking the largest decline since September 2023, which poses a significant challenge for Prime Minister Kishida ahead of the upcoming elections [1][4] - The nominal wage growth was only 1%, significantly below economists' expectations, primarily due to reduced bonuses [1][4] - The largest labor union, Rengo, reported a 5.25% increase in agreed wages this year, the highest in 34 years, driven by inflation and labor shortages [1][6] Group 2 - Japan's core inflation rate reached 3.7% in May, well above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with essential goods and services driving the increase [4] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has proposed cash handouts and measures to stimulate wage growth, but recent polls indicate low public support for these initiatives [4][5] - Despite the decline in real wages, the Bank of Japan may still consider further interest rate hikes due to the ongoing nominal wage increases and inflation pressures [4][7] Group 3 - Basic wages increased by 2.1% in May, with stable indicators showing full-time employee wages rising by 2.4%, maintaining growth above 2% for nearly two years [5][6] - Structural labor shortages are pushing companies to raise wages to attract and retain talent, particularly in sectors like information technology [6] - Economic uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff policies, pose risks to wage growth momentum, especially for large manufacturers [6][7]

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex monetary policy landscape faced by the Federal Reserve and other central banks amid rising tariffs and economic uncertainty, highlighting the potential for interest rate changes based on upcoming economic data [1][2][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed's interest rate decisions are influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and their impact on inflation [1][2]. - Powell stated that the Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding interest rates, with most committee members expecting a rate cut later in the year [1][2]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is considered low, with key economic indicators such as inflation and employment data being crucial for future decisions [2][5][6]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The upcoming employment data on July 3 and CPI data in mid-July are critical for assessing the Fed's potential actions [2][5]. - If unexpected economic conditions arise, market sentiment could improve, leading to a rise in global financial markets and a decline in the dollar index [2][7]. - A potential rate cut could lead to increased volatility in markets, with implications for equities, bonds, and commodities [7][8]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Policies - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is attributed to differing economic conditions and inflation pressures [11][12]. - The Bank of Japan is leaning towards normalizing its monetary policy due to rising inflation expectations, while the European Central Bank is balancing between rate cuts and preventing euro volatility [11][12]. - The potential for a Japanese interest rate hike could impact capital flows and the dollar's strength, leading to increased volatility in global markets [12]. Group 4: Dollar's Status and Future Outlook - The article highlights concerns regarding the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, particularly in light of the Trump administration's trade policies [15][16]. - The dollar index has seen significant declines, with a drop of over 10% in the first half of the year, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and rising debt concerns [15][16]. - Despite the challenges, the dollar remains a dominant reserve currency, holding 58% of global reserves, but the trend towards "de-dollarization" is expected to accelerate in the medium to long term [16][18].