智通财经7月15日电，摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，美联储的独立性绝对至关重要。 ...

富国银行(WFC.N)首席财务官：关于美联储独立性的问题从风险角度来看并未构成主要因素。 ...

来源：前主编 市场要么不相信白宫试图逼迫美联储主席下台会成功，要么就认为这全是虚张声势。但有充分理由警惕 这种由美联储抨击重新抬头可能在暗中酝酿的不确定性。 自唐纳德·特朗普于一月重返白宫以来，他对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的言辞攻击就持续不断，如今几 乎每天都有。最新的旁敲侧击包括要求立即降息超过3个百分点。 目前，期货曲线仅计入今年美联储两次降息，整个美联储宽松周期预计将在明年触底，利率约为3.2% ——比当前利率低不到120个基点，远低于特朗普要求的300个基点。 直到六月，特朗普还声称在鲍威尔明年初任期届满前不会解雇他，最高法院曾暗示此举在法律上可能具 有争议性。焦点反而转向了特朗普提前宣布鲍威尔的继任者，制造一位"影子"美联储主席，从而削弱鲍 威尔在市场上的信誉。 但在过去一个月里，出现了一种新的、更尖锐的策略：白宫官员现在猛烈抨击鲍威尔主持了美联储华盛 顿总部翻修工程的超支，并要求他承担责任。 这一转变不可避免地重新引发了关于鲍威尔提前下台的议论。 上周五，关于鲍威尔可能被迫辞职的猜测甚嚣尘上。白宫经济顾问凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）——被 一些人视为可能接替鲍威尔的人选之一——在周日 ...

美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）正陷入一场史无前例的政治风暴。美联储主席鲍威尔近日被迫要求内部监察长彻查耗 资25亿美元的总部翻修工程，这一本属常规的财务审查，却因特朗普阵营的穷追猛打演变为动摇美联储百年根基 的"独立性保卫战"。 这场始于2017年的翻修工程，最初预算仅19亿美元，却在2021年动工后飙升至25亿美元。美联储辩称超支源于"意 外发现大量石棉、土壤污染及地下水位异常"等技术问题，但共和党抓住这一把柄发起猛烈攻势。白宫预算顾问沃 思直指："纳税人有权知晓，为何纳税人的钱被用来建造'美联储凡尔赛宫'？" 华盛顿特区美联储大楼周围的施工工作 值得注意的是，负责监督的监察长办公室近期人事变动耐人寻味——三名新任委员均由特朗普亲信把持，其中副 幕僚长布莱尔更公开宣称"已掌握解雇鲍威尔的实质性证据"。市场分析机构TD Cowen直言："这已不是简单的装 修丑闻，而是特朗普精心策划的夺权行动。" 美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 更深层的博弈在于权力架构的重塑。特朗普提名的国家经济委员会主任哈塞特暗示："或许该给美联储装上GPS， 确保他们的建筑预算不会超过国防部食堂翻新费用。"这种将货币政策与行政开支强行 ...

身为总统，特朗普手中掌握的权力极其庞大。比如，马斯克计划成立美国党以挑战特朗普的权威，这迅速引发了美国军方对马斯克公司大订单的突然撤回。 特朗普如今手里有多种手段，完全能使鲍威尔感受到威胁，从而可能促使他提前辞职。 鲍威尔多次强调，他为何不愿降息，主要是因为他认为美国的通货膨胀问题依然十分严重。尽管在过去几个月中，美国的通胀指数有所下降，但仍高于美联 储设定的2%的警戒线。鲍威尔经历过教训：在拜登政府采取大规模财政政策时，美联储曾认为通货膨胀是可控的，结果却导致通胀率接近两位数。因此， 这次鲍威尔表现得格外谨慎小心。 美国为何至今未降息？特朗普对此的愤怒正在不断升级——鲍威尔仿佛置身事外，不愿屈从于他的指令！那么，特朗普是否有可能采取极端措施将鲍威尔踢 下台呢？当然根据相关法律规定，美国总统没有权力直接罢免美联储主席的职务。不过，特朗普似乎有其他施压的办法，最近他暗示鲍威尔在美联储某些问 题上的答复可能让国会议员感到误导，因此问道："你是不是该考虑提前离职？" 然而，鲍威尔的这种谨慎让特朗普感到相当不满。他究竟会不会利用各种方式逼迫鲍威尔辞职呢？相关分析人士指出，市场不应低估鲍威尔被解职的风险。 他们认为：" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the power struggle between the White House and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, triggered by a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed's headquarters, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [3][5][11]. Group 1: Power Transition and Succession - Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the White House has begun planning for a transition, with potential successors including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and others, indicating a strategy to diminish Powell's influence during his remaining term [5][9]. - Trump's intention to announce Powell's successor by September or October aims to weaken Powell's authority [5]. Group 2: Legal Implications of Dismissal - Legal experts assert that Trump can only dismiss Powell under specific conditions, such as inefficiency or misconduct, which do not include policy disagreements [7][9]. - Historical precedents suggest that Trump's attempts to dismiss Powell would face significant legal challenges [7]. Group 3: White House's Dual Strategy - Trump has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, suggesting he should resign, while advisors claim the renovation cost overruns could justify a dismissal [9][10]. - The White House has criticized the renovation as extravagant, comparing the Fed's headquarters to the Palace of Versailles, which has been widely circulated among officials [9]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Discrepancies - The conflict between Trump and Powell stems from differing monetary policy views, with Trump advocating for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy, while Powell focuses on controlling inflation [10][11]. - Economic indicators show declining consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations, exacerbating tensions between the two leaders [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Global Impact - Trump's threats have caused significant market volatility, with investors seeking safe-haven assets due to concerns over the Fed's independence [11][12]. - The ongoing power struggle may lead to increased global economic uncertainty and potential capital outflows [11]. Group 6: Institutional vs. Personal Conflict - The power struggle represents a challenge to the fundamental principle of central bank independence, with Powell's firm stance rooted in historical legal precedents [12]. - Trump's potential strategies to exert pressure on the Fed may face bipartisan resistance, complicating the situation further [12].

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's repeated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, citing his negative impact on the country [2][3] - White House economic advisor Hassett stated that Trump has the authority to dismiss Powell if justified, particularly due to the $700 million cost overrun on the Fed's headquarters renovation project [2][5] - The Federal Reserve has responded to criticisms regarding its $2.5 billion renovation project by adding a FAQ page on its website, denying claims of extravagant expenditures such as a VIP restaurant [5][6] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank has warned that the risk of Powell being dismissed is significant and underestimated, which could lead to a sell-off of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [8][9] - The report from Deutsche Bank indicates that if Trump forces Powell out, the dollar could drop by 3% to 4% within 24 hours, and fixed-income bonds may see a sell-off of 30 to 40 basis points [8] - Concerns are raised about the fragile external financing conditions of the U.S. economy, which could lead to greater price volatility and destructive risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intensifying pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, using the controversy over the excessive spending on the Fed's headquarters renovation as a means to force Powell to resign before the end of his term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Pressure on Powell - The Trump administration's recent actions suggest a legal pathway to potentially remove Powell, focusing on the renovation costs of the Fed's headquarters, which have reportedly increased by 30% from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [5][6]. - White House officials, including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, have publicly stated that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell based on "just cause," which may relate to the overspending on the renovation project [7][8]. - The current situation mirrors past political pressures on the Fed, reminiscent of Nixon's tactics against then-Chairman Burns in the 1972 election [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Risks - Analysts warn that the risk of Powell's forced resignation is significantly underestimated by the market, with potential consequences including a 3-4% drop in the trade-weighted dollar index and a sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds by 30-40 basis points [19]. - The Deutsche Bank report indicates that if Powell is removed, it could lead to a direct challenge to the Fed's independence, causing instability in global markets [19][20]. Group 3: Potential Successors - Trump is reportedly considering "two or three" candidates to replace Powell, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who have expressed views that align more closely with Trump's economic agenda [9][10][13]. - The candidates are adopting more dovish stances to increase their chances of being selected, which could further complicate the Fed's approach to managing inflation and economic growth [16].

当地时间7月14日，央视记者获悉，在特朗普政府官员加大对美联储运作方式的批评力度之际，美联储 主席鲍威尔已要求美国央行监察长审查美联储总部大楼翻新工程所涉及的成本。 7月13日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特在媒体采访中公然宣称，若有正当理由，特朗普有权解雇美国联邦 储备委员会主席鲍威尔。他还指责美联储对其华盛顿总部翻修工程超支"负有重大责任"。哈塞特称，特 朗普是否会因"超支7亿美元"解雇鲍威尔，"将很大程度上取决于美联储对白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉 塞尔·沃特质询的回应"。 白宫翻4年前旧账 特朗普再提换人 报道称，在致参议院银行委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特和参议院银行委员会最高民主党人伊丽莎白·沃伦的一 封信中，鲍威尔表示，监察长可以全面掌握项目成本、合同、进度和支出等信息，并每月收到有关建设 计划的报告。 鲍威尔称，美联储监察长于2021年进行了一次审计，以评估美联储规划和管理多个翻新项目以及根据各 项翻新相关合同采购服务的流程，他已要求监察长重新审视这一翻新项目。 白宫管理和预算办公室主任沃特上周致信鲍威尔，信中写道，特朗普对这项25亿美元项目的成本超 支"极为担忧"。美联储在发布在其网站上的材料中描述了对马里纳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Fed officials' hawkish stance on interest rate cuts led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the expectation of loose monetary policy due to the Fed's undermined independence persists. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on silver prices. Traders are advised to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Price Performance - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.05% to 778.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.11% to 9167.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.17% to 3353.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver decreased 0.65% to 38.49 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 98.15 [2]. 3.2 Market Participants' Views - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, so there is no urgent need for an interest rate cut. US President Trump hopes for a loose monetary policy and suggests the Fed should cut the interest rate below 1%. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both the September and December FOMC meetings [2]. 3.3 Key Data Comparison - **Gold**: The closing price of Au(T + D) was 777.46 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Gold was 3351.15 dollars/ounce, down 0.03%. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 947.64 tons [4]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Ag(T + D) was 9172.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.60% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Silver was 39.00 dollars/ounce, up 3.99%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons, a 1.41% increase [4]. 3.4 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - **Gold**: The closing price of COMEX Gold's active contract was 3352.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.54% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 12.60% to 18.09 million lots; open interest increased by 1.25% to 44.31 million lots; inventory remained unchanged at 1143 tons [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of COMEX Silver's active contract was 38.41 dollars/ounce, down 1.70% from the previous day; open interest decreased by 0.47% to 16.28 million lots; inventory increased by 0.34% to 15447 tons [6]. 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price and volume of COMEX Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc [11][16][27] 3.6 Near - and Far - Month Structure - There are charts showing the near - and far - month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, London Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the price differences between different contracts [20][21][38] 3.7 Management Fund Net Long Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver management funds and prices [41] 3.8 ETF Holdings - There are charts showing the total holdings of Gold and Silver ETFs [48] 3.9 Internal - External Price Differences - On July 14, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was 25.37 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 5.43 yuan/gram; the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 356.49 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.55 dollars/ounce [49]