特朗普周二进一步扩大全球贸易战，宣布对进口铜征收50%关税，并表示长期以来威胁要征收的半导体和药品关税即将出台。他还表示，美国与欧盟和中国的贸易谈判进展良好，但表示“很可能”在两天内告诉欧盟对美出口的预期税率。特朗普也表示，将很快对药品征收高达200%的关税，但将给药企至少一年的时间，在关税生效前将供应链转移回美国。COMEX9月期铜合约最终收涨13%，创下最高收盘纪录，盘中涨超17%，创下37年以来最大盘中涨幅。在潜在进口关税威胁下，全球各地加快向美国运输铜，上个月LME可用库存规模一度降至相当于不足全球一天的使用量。 ...

Core Insights - Amazon's Prime Day sales performance has started poorly this year, with sales in the first four hours down nearly 14% compared to the same period last year [1] - The data from Momentum Commerce, which manages approximately $7 billion in sales for brands like Crocs and Beats, is seen as a barometer for consumer sentiment and the overall economic outlook in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The negative sentiment from investors regarding this year's Prime Day is reflected in the high-frequency data from Momentum, indicating a cautious shopping behavior among consumers [1] - On the day the data was released, Amazon's stock fell over 1.8%, marking the worst performance among the Magnificent 7 tech giants [1] Group 2 - Amazon's Prime Day this year runs from July 8 to July 11, extending the event to four days for the first time, which may complicate year-over-year sales comparisons [2] - The longer duration may lead consumers to wait for larger discounts rather than making immediate purchases as in previous years [2] - High tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are also seen as a factor contributing to the weak sales, affecting sellers' promotional capabilities [2] Group 3 - Key observations from this year's Prime Day include fewer discounts on Amazon's own devices like Echo, with essential goods driving promotions rather than tech products [2] - Grocery items are seeing larger discounts compared to electronics, and Apple is offering notable deals, such as AirPods 4 priced at $89, cheaper than last year's Black Friday promotions [2]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Global Economy - Current tariffs impose an effective GDP tax of approximately 1.5% on U.S. importers, and even with a trade agreement, it is unlikely that tariffs will decrease significantly [1] - Global growth tracking estimates a current annual rate of only 1.3%, which is at the 8th lowest percentile historically [1] - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data following tariff announcements, with a peak gap not seen in 27 years [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dynamics - UBS is bearish on the dollar from a cyclical perspective but does not view this as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [2] - The current dollar sell-off lacks key elements that characterized past long-term declines, such as improved economic growth in other regions and reduced risk premiums [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Initial impacts of tariffs are beginning to show in private sector data, but delays in transmission to official consumer price indices are expected [3] - Significant effects on CPI from tariffs are anticipated to manifest in July's data, which will be released in August [3] Group 4: Global Exporters' Response - Evidence of a "tariff rush" in Q1 indicates that trade volumes have not yet stabilized despite price increases [4] - There is little evidence that foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs by lowering export prices, and the impact of dollar depreciation on their profits is noted [4] Group 5: U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Global Interest Rates - The majority of changes in budget deficits stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with no fundamental changes expected post-election [6] - Concerns about supply issues persist, but historically, demand fluctuations have been more significant than supply [6] Group 6: Capital Flows from the U.S. - There is a widely accepted view that foreign investors are reducing exposure to U.S. assets, supported by April's international capital flow data [7] - The ongoing decline of the dollar suggests that foreign exchange hedging may be a driving factor behind this trend [7] Group 7: U.S. vs. European Stock Markets - U.S. stock markets typically perform better during global GDP slowdowns, but the current slowdown is primarily driven by the U.S. economy [8] - Comparisons reveal that U.S. valuations are exceptionally high while European markets appear relatively cheap [8] Group 8: "One Big Beautiful" Act's Economic Impact - The "One Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase deficits before 2026, with a total reduction of $0.4 trillion over ten years [8] - The act is expected to provide a boost of approximately 45 basis points to economic growth by 2026 [8] Group 9: Central Banks' Response to Tariff Escalation - Central banks have shifted their views due to the absence of retaliatory measures and dollar depreciation, with expectations of 1-3 policy rate cuts [9] - The current situation is viewed as simpler than a "stagflation" scenario, allowing for potential easing policies [9]

特朗普还表示，应该把这项新研究给"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔看看。特朗普称鲍威尔几个月来 一直在抱怨根本不存在的通胀，拒绝采取正确的行动。特朗普表示，现在是时候降息了。 此外，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，经济顾问委员会（CEA）的一项新研究发 现，关税对通胀毫无影响。事实上，研究表明进口价格实际上正在下降。特朗普表示，假新闻和所 谓的"专家"又错了，关税正在让美国"繁荣"，大量新工厂、新工作岗位和数万亿美元的投资涌入美 国。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间8日在内阁会议发表讲话。 特朗普8日当天再次表示，美 联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is closely monitoring global trade dynamics due to significant macroeconomic challenges occurring worldwide [1] - Tariffs have a profound impact on the global economy and are expected to hinder economic growth [1] - The immediate effect of U.S. tariffs on Australia appears to be minimal [1]

Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Housser, stated that tariffs have a profound impact on the global economy and will hinder economic growth [1]

今日必读🎨美国拟对铜征50%关税🎪特朗普再次喊话鲍威尔降息🔮星巴克或售中国业务股份获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/NVUZAXASyy ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 关税前景不明，美股涨跌互现，小盘股表现较好，道指落后。特斯拉在前一交易日大幅下跌后反弹1.3%，英伟达涨超1%、收创新高，市值逼近4万亿美 元。 特朗普寻求收紧清洁能源税收相关制度，太阳能类股下跌，SunRun跌超11%。 美债收益率延续昨日涨势，长债收益率领涨，30年期美债收益率上涨4个基点。20年期美债收益率近4年来首次超过30年期。 特朗普称将实施50%铜关税，纽铜较日低一度暴拉超18%。黄金跌1.1%，盘中一度跌破3300美元。 亚洲时段，沪指距3500点"一步之遥"，光伏、算力产业链爆发，恒指涨1%，金涌投资大涨530%，多晶硅期货涨停，国债齐跌。 纽约Talk第二季上新 | 33年交易老将，华尔街前线洞察 了解详情>> 要闻 特朗普称8月1日起实施对等关税、不会再推迟，警告欧盟征税函将至。特朗普称将实施50%铜关税、药品和半导体关税在望，纽铜一度暴拉 17%。 多国回应特朗普关税：日韩寻求继续谈判、南非辩驳税率还能降、巴西怒斥并强调反制。美财长同日本首席谈判代表通电话、被传下周访日。德 国警告：若不能达成公平贸易协议 ...

Tuesday, July 8, 2025Market indexes started out mixed in today’s pre-market, and there they remained throughout the trading session. Some early chop back and forth eventually gave way to flat levels into the close. The Dow, which spent virtually all day in the red, was down -422 points at today’s lows, but closed -165 points, -0.37%.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both rode either side of breakeven all day long, eventually settling at -0.07% on the S&P and +0.03% on the Nasdaq. The small-cap Russell 2000, which ...

美国方面7日称，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关 税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓期截止日期延长至8月1日。对此，联合国和世界贸易组织的合设机构国际 贸易中心执行主任帕梅拉·科克-汉密尔顿8日表示，美国总统特朗普所谓延长关税谈判期限的做法，实 际上进一步增加了不确定性和不稳定性。 ...