美国总统特朗普：将于本周五开始发送关于关税的信件。预计将有10到12个国家在周五收到相关通知。 ...

特朗普：周五开始寄送关于关税的信件，预计将会有10至12个国家收到相关通知。计划对不同国家征收从60%到70%、以及从10%到20%不等的关税。各国将于8月1日开始支付这些关税。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普周四表示，美国政府可能最早于周五开始向贸易伙伴国发送通知函，单方面设定新的关税税率。“我们可能明天就开始发函，大概每天发10个国家，告知他们若想与美国做生意，需要支付多少关税。” https://t.co/sqU1UNwyIs ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month[12] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market despite economic slowdown[12] - The healthcare sector added 59,000 jobs, marking the lowest increase in four months[12] Market Reactions - A-shares showed a strong performance with the Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 1.17% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.9%[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, closing at 3,461.15 points[1] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.63%, closing at 24,069.94 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.67%[1] Trade and Tariffs - President Trump may begin notifying countries of new tariff rates as early as Friday, intensifying trade negotiations[12] - The European Union aims to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. before July 9[12] Investment Trends - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale announced a direct subsidy of 50 billion RMB over the next 12 months to stimulate consumer spending[14] - China National Building Material issued 1 billion RMB in tech innovation bonds, with an oversubscription of 2.71 times[14]

随着焦点转向关税，亚洲货币或面临新一轮波动 金十数据7月4日讯，三菱日联资深外汇分析师Lloyd Chan在一份研究报告中说，随着焦点转向与关税相 关的事态发展，亚洲货币可能面临新的波动。美国提高对等关税的风险迫在眉睫。值得注意的是，经常 被用作全球风险情绪代理对冲工具的韩元兑美元周四下跌0.6%。美韩贸易谈判目前看来仍然很难取得 突破，韩国政府计划要求延长关税暂停期。 ...

特朗普周四表示，美国政府可能最早于周五开始向贸易伙伴国发送通知函，单方面设定新的关税税率。“我们可能明天就开始发函，大概每天发10个国家，告知他们若想与美国做生意，需要支付多少关税。”当被问及是否会有更多协议达成时，特朗普回应称：“我们还有几项协议在谈，但我的倾向是直接发函，告诉他们该付多少关税。这样简单多了。”美国财长贝森特对媒体表示，约有100个国家可能会被征收10%的对等关税。 ...

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]

11. 美国6月非农就业人口录得14.7万人，好于市场普遍预期；失业率录得4.1%，数据意外下降。交易员 不再押注美联储7月降息，9月降息概率下降。 欧元/美元 1. 王毅：稀土不会成为中欧之间的问题。 2. 美越贸易协定将对转运货物征收40%关税，外交部：有关协议不应损害第三方。 3. 国务院发文复制推广上海自贸试验区77条试点措施。 4. 美国取消全球三大芯片设计软件供应商对华出口限制。 5. 6月财新中国服务业PMI录得50.6，较5月回落0.5个百分点。 6. 北京拟规定：个人"二房东"转租10套及以上住房将纳入行业监管。 7. 商务部：将加强对二手车出口工作指导，促进二手车出口健康有序发展。 8. 美国政府致函美企撤销一项限制性许可要求，为恢复对华乙烷出口扫清道路。 9. 工信部召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会：依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争。 10. 员工曝罗马仕已通知全面停工停产，工资只发到6月份。罗马仕深夜发文：公司没有倒闭。 国内新闻： 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①冯德莱恩：欧盟的目标是在7月9日之前与特朗普政府达成一项"原则性协议"。②美财长：警 告关税可以上调回4月2日的水平，预计约有 ...

美国总统特朗普：明天（7月4日）就可以着手向各国发送与关税相关的信函。 ...

Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the ADP employment numbers in the U.S. decreased by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with May's figures revised down to an increase of only 29,000 [1] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [1] - Despite the job losses, year-on-year wage growth remained stable at 4.4%, only slightly down from 4.5% in May [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump announced that Vietnam agreed to open its market to U.S. products at zero tariffs, while U.S. exports to Vietnam would face at least a 20% tariff [3] - The trade deficit with Vietnam exceeds $123 billion, with the U.S. importing over $136 billion from Vietnam in 2024 [3] - The potential trade agreement could impact China's transshipment trade, as Vietnam's supply chain heavily relies on Chinese technology and materials [4] Group 3: Technology Exports - The U.S. government has lifted some export restrictions on EDA software to China, which could enhance China's semiconductor design capabilities [5] - Major EDA companies hold approximately 82% of the Chinese market, indicating a significant reliance on U.S. technology [5] - The easing of restrictions may encourage Chinese firms to increase their preference for domestic EDA software solutions [6] Group 4: Real Estate Policies - Guangzhou is proposing a "commercial to public loan" policy to convert commercial housing loans to public housing loans when the public loan rate is below 75% [7] - This policy aims to stimulate demand in the real estate market while ensuring liquidity safety [8] Group 5: Gaming Market - Tencent and ByteDance are competing for the burgeoning mini-game market, which is projected to generate revenues of 39.836 billion yuan in 2024, a 99.18% increase year-on-year [9] - The mini-game sector benefits from low entry barriers and high user engagement, making it an attractive area for both companies [10] Group 6: IPO Activity - In the first half of the year, A-share IPO applications exceeded the total for the previous year, with 177 companies applying [11] - The total financing scale reached 38 billion yuan, a 25.53% increase year-on-year [12] - The surge in IPO applications is attributed to companies rushing to submit before the financial reports expire [12] Group 7: Market Trends - A-share new account openings reached 1.65 million in June, a 53% year-on-year increase, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts in the first half of the year [13] - The overall trading volume in June was 26.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a 79.57% increase compared to the previous year [13] - The market's performance in June was characterized by a lack of significant upward momentum, despite the increase in new accounts [14]

美联储博斯蒂克：关税没有很快确定，让企业不确定最终的税率会是多少，并等待做出定价决定。 ...