特朗普上周采取了极不寻常的举动，亲自造访美联储，实地考察美联储总部25亿美元的翻新工程。 美联储关键会议召开前，白宫与美联储的利率之争再度升温。 周日白宫向美联储主席鲍威尔施加更大压力，要求"大幅降低"利率，为即将召开的利率决策委员会会议造势。据英国《金融时报》报道，白宫预 算主管Russell Vought在批评鲍威尔降息"过晚"的同时，抨击美联储总部25亿美元的翻新工程是"奢侈的大怪物"。 Vought表示，特朗普认为利率应该"比目前水平大幅降低"。他说： 我们认为，在很多方面，鲍威尔主席都行动得太晚了。我们……必须清楚地表达美国人民和总统的观点，即需要降低利率，并且不要 在国家广场上出现这种"奢侈的大怪物"。 美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将于北京时间周四凌晨公布7月利率决议，市场普遍预期央行将维持利率不变。这一决定可能使本已紧张的白 宫与美联储关系降至新低，特朗普正力推将利率从目前的4.25%-4.5%降至仅1%。 | 02:00 | ll | 美国FOMC利率决策(下限) | ★★★ | 4.25% | 4.25% | ( = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Earnings Reports - Apple is expected to report EPS of $1.43 on revenue of $88.89 billion, with a focus on subscription and service revenue despite concerns about slowing iPhone growth [8] - Microsoft is projected to report EPS of $3.38 on revenue of $73.8 billion, driven by AI adoption, cloud services, and data center investments, with investors keen on AI integration into core platforms [9] - Other companies reporting include Waste Management, Nucor, Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, Boeing, PayPal, Qualcomm, Robinhood, eBay, Mastercard, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron [10] Trade Agreement - The United States and the European Union reached a last-minute agreement to impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports, avoiding a broader trade conflict [11] - This agreement comes ahead of a deadline that would have seen significantly higher tariffs, with initial proposals from Trump suggesting a 50% tariff on EU imports [12] Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have led to market volatility, with speculation about potential rate cuts and their implications for economic stability [5][7] - Markets are pricing in over 200 basis points of Fed cuts by August 2026, which historically has been associated with recessionary conditions [7]

2025 年 7 月 24 日，华盛顿美联储总部的翻新工地上，两顶白色安全帽在聚光灯下剧烈碰撞。唐纳德・特 朗普与杰罗姆・鲍威尔 —— 美国最有权势的政治人物与央行行长 —— 在全球媒体镜头前爆发罕见争吵。 当总统挥舞着工程造价单质问 "27 亿如何变成 31 亿" 时，鲍威尔的反驳声穿透了施工现场的噪音："您把 五年前完工的马丁大楼也算进去了！" 这场看似琐碎的预算争执，实则揭开了美国货币政策独立性危机的 冰山一角。 一、施工现场的火药味：31 亿美元引发的信任崩塌 三、法律与权力的角力场 （一）数据背后的政治算计 特朗普在视察中掏出的文件显示，美联储总部翻修工程成本已从最初的 19 亿美元飙升至 31 亿美元。他指 责鲍威尔 "管理不善"，并暗示这是美联储官僚主义的缩影。但鲍威尔当场揭穿了数据陷阱：特朗普将 2020 年完工的马丁大楼翻新费用重复计算，而当前工程实际超支仅 4 亿美元，主要用于保护具有历史意义 的花岗岩外墙。这种 "偷换概念" 的指控，暴露出特朗普试图通过预算争议削弱美联储公信力的深层意 图。 （二）舆论战的升级 此次对峙并非孤立事件。白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔・沃特早在 7 月 10 ...

美国总统特朗普上门催降息了。当地时间24日，特朗普罕见造访美联储。在此之前，特朗普已持续数月因美联储今年以来迟迟未降息而批评美联储主席鲍威 尔。此次到访，无疑加剧了对美联储的考验。鲍威尔一直强调"耐心"，希望在政策调整前看到通胀稳定回归2%目标，但这番克制之举正受到来自内部与外 部的双重挑战。 the first GHS M 22 2 13 31 2 15 t t 11:50 a 2016 t 201 百万 SPA 016 Case of Carry ng the state a some 476 The Land 37 11:55 t - Fair y TEN 100 最大 7 11:2 x 0 letti House 6 上海拔 be 15 e a are the case 11-2 pping o 01 19:45 t 2017 12 35 and 118 TE 1 2017 the supplies the state 81 3 31 21 2 LENE 继续施压 此前据美国媒体报道，白宫副幕僚长布莱尔放风称，特朗普政府希望访问美联储总部，审查其25亿美元的翻新工程。3天后，特朗普现身美联储工地。据了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding foreign capital selling US Treasury bonds are unfounded, as data from the US Treasury's International Capital Movement report indicates that the turmoil in May was not caused by foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In May, global trade tensions eased, with the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy in a 90-day buffer period, leading to a 27.6% month-on-month decline in the US trade policy uncertainty index [1]. - The US government faced increasing criticism of the Federal Reserve, and Moody's downgraded the US's last AAA sovereign credit rating, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and the sustainability of US debt [1]. - The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields rose above 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively, with monthly increases of 24 and 26 basis points, resulting in a significant drop in Treasury prices [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - In April, international capital experienced a net outflow of $146 billion, reversing a net inflow of $171.2 billion in March, coinciding with a 4.4% drop in the dollar index [2]. - In May, the US financial market rebounded, with the S&P 500 index rising 6.1%, leading to a net capital inflow of $311.1 billion, a month-on-month increase of $3.257 billion, marking the third-highest monthly inflow on record [2]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in US Securities - Foreign investors net purchased $318.5 billion in US long-term securities in May, a month-on-month increase of $369.1 billion, contributing 113.1% to the net capital inflow [3]. - Private foreign capital was the main contributor, with a net inflow of $333.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of $330.4 billion, marking the highest monthly net inflow on record [4]. Group 4: Types of Securities - Foreign investors significantly increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with net purchases of $1.463 billion in May, a month-on-month increase of $1.871 billion, contributing 50.7% to the net purchases of long-term securities [5]. - Private foreign investors were the primary buyers of US long-term securities, shifting from a net sale of $50.6 billion to a net purchase of $318.5 billion in May [5][6]. Group 5: Country Contributions - Canada was the largest contributor to the net purchase of US long-term securities in May, with a net inflow of $146.7 billion, accounting for 39.7% of the total [9]. - Other significant contributors included the Cayman Islands, Singapore, China, and Japan, with China ending a 10-month streak of net sales to net purchase $3.2 billion in May [10][11].

Group 1 - The incident involving the Wells Fargo executive being restricted from leaving China highlights the importance of adhering to local laws for both domestic and foreign individuals [1][3] - The Chinese government emphasizes that this action is a legal procedure and not a political persecution, contrasting it with past U.S. actions against Chinese companies [3][9] - The situation reflects broader issues in U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding the perception of double standards in international law enforcement [3][7] Group 2 - The restriction of the Wells Fargo executive's departure has led to concerns among U.S. companies about the stability of U.S.-China relations, with some firms, like Wells Fargo, halting employee travel to China [8][9] - The incident may further complicate diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and China, as it could be perceived as a sign of deteriorating trust [7][11] - The need for the U.S. to respect China's legal framework is emphasized, suggesting that failure to do so could lead to increased tensions and potential crises [9][11]

新华财经上海7月26日电（葛佳明） 本周（7月21日-7月26日）国际贸易局势的不确定性逐步下降，全球央行政策则趋于谨慎调整，欧洲央行暂停连续降 息。全球风险偏好回升之际，多数国家股指走高，美元震荡走弱，黄金走强后回落，国内商品走势则随着"反内卷"政策信号持续释放强势上行。 美股方面，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数持续刷新历史高位，其中，标普500指数收报6388.64点，本周累计上涨1.46%；道琼斯工业平均指数报44901.92点， 本周累涨1.26%；纳斯达克指数报21108.32点，本周累涨1.02%；罗素2000指数报2261.07点，本周累涨0.94%。 美股"科技股七巨头"多数上涨，其中，谷歌因第二季度财报营收和净利润超预期，本周累计上涨4.39%，亚马逊全周累涨2.35%，苹果全周累计涨1.28%， Meta全周累涨1.19%，英伟达涨幅达0.63%，微软全周微涨0.72%。特斯拉则因营收和净利润大幅下跌，全周累计下挫4.12%。 欧洲股市方面，欧洲STOXX 600指数全周累计涨0.5%；德国DAX 30指数本周累计下跌0.30%，法国CAC 40指数本周累涨0.15%；英国富时100指数本周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, under the guise of inspecting building renovations, raises questions about the political and economic implications of his actions, particularly regarding interest rate policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][10]. Group 1: Political Context - Trump's approval ratings have declined due to various issues, including tariffs and health concerns, prompting his high-profile visit to the Federal Reserve to potentially regain public support [3][9][10]. - The visit is seen as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, as Trump has previously criticized the Fed's interest rate decisions and has pressured it to lower rates to stimulate economic growth [6][8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve has historically maintained its independence to avoid political pressures that could lead to economic instability, as seen in past instances of inflation caused by political interference [5][8]. - Trump's focus on the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has escalated from initial estimates to significantly higher costs, is perceived as an attempt to exert influence over the Fed [13]. - The future direction of U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain, hinging on the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions despite Trump's pressures [13].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significant influence of the Federal Reserve Chair, particularly Jerome Powell, over global economic directions, surpassing even that of political leaders like the U.S. President [1][3][11] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Influence - The Federal Reserve, under Powell's leadership, has the power to shape global economic trends, a fact acknowledged even by the U.S. President [3][5] - Powell's firm stance on maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve highlights its critical role in the U.S. political landscape, often leading to tensions with political figures like former President Trump [5][9] - The decisions made by the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate changes, have far-reaching effects on global financial markets, demonstrating the institution's pivotal role in economic stability [5][9][11] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical Federal Reserve Chairs, including Paul Volcker, have set precedents for maintaining the independence of the institution, which has been crucial in managing economic crises [7][11] - Powell continues this tradition, making decisions that may diverge from political pressures, thereby reinforcing the Federal Reserve's authority in economic matters [7][9] - The article suggests that the true power in shaping economic policy often lies with financial institutions and their leaders rather than elected officials [11][13]

美联储大楼迎来近20年来首位到访的美国总统，一场罕见的总统与美联储主席面对面对峙，打破了长期以来白宫与美联储保持距离的惯例。 7月24日，美国总统特朗普亲赴美联储总部，与鲍威尔就高达25亿美元的"装修门"事件展开交锋。 然而，这笔眼前的"小账"，或许只是特朗普心中那本"大账"的引子。 一场罕见的总统与美联储主席对峙 美国总统通常不会以官方身份造访美联储，此举旨在彰显美联储独立于白宫的超然地位。 回顾历史，美国总统此前曾三次踏足美联储：1937年富兰克林·罗斯福出席总部大楼剪彩，1975年福特总统出席美联储理事宣誓典礼，以及2006年小布什出 席本·伯南克就任美联储主席的宣誓仪式。前三次都是总统"捧场"，而这一次，特朗普的到来却更像是"砸场"。 值得注意的是，特朗普此次视察时机"考究"：选择在周四，距离美联储下一次公布利率决议（7月30日）仅剩一周；同时，在美股尾盘时段现身，显然是为 了最大程度地降低此举可能对市场造成的冲击。 当天，特朗普与鲍威尔一同参观了美联储总部的翻新工程。在施工现场，两人头戴安全帽，并肩而立，神情严肃。面对媒体镜头，特朗普突然拿出一份列有 建筑成本的文件，直接质问身旁的鲍威尔，为何翻修成 ...