Group 1 - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasized that two rate cuts this year remain the most likely choice for the Fed, as the impact of new tariffs on consumer prices may be milder than expected [1][3] - Daly noted that many companies are actively sharing the burden of tariff costs through supply chain negotiations rather than passing the costs directly to consumers, which could prevent significant inflation spikes [3] - The internal consensus at the Fed is not aligned, with most officials worried about persistent inflation pressures from tariffs, while a minority believes it is a one-time price disturbance [3][5] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Bullard expressed caution, stating that the effects of tariffs are still uncertain and may take time to permeate the economy, with key data from June to September being critical for observation [5] - Market anxiety is rising due to policy ambiguity, with traders indicating that clarity on the final scope of tariffs before their implementation on August 1 is unlikely, making a July rate cut nearly impossible [5][6] - The Fed's rate strategy is becoming more complex as the observation period highlighted by Bullard coincides with the new tariff list being considered by Trump [6]

Group 1 - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials highlights the challenges in decision-making regarding inflation and interest rates, with Daly suggesting a milder impact from tariffs and Musalem emphasizing the delayed effects [1][6] - Daly's confidence stems from companies' ability to manage cost pressures through supply chain negotiations, profit margin compression, and operational efficiency, as evidenced by the increase in inventory turnover rates among U.S. importers [3][6] - The latest data supports Daly's assessment of the U.S. economy, showing a moderate cooling with consumer spending growth slowing but not contracting, a stable labor market, and inflation trending towards the 2% target [6][9] Group 2 - Concerns about the global implications of U.S. trade policy changes are rising, with warnings from industry leaders about potential risks to small businesses and the broader economy [9] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate adjustments, as market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [9]

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-7-11 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the interest rate outlook, primarily due to varying expectations on how tariffs will impact inflation. Some believe tariffs will only cause a one-time price increase, while the majority think tariffs may have a more lasting effect on inflation [2] - The "dot plot" released after the meeting indicates that out of 19 policymakers, 10 expect at least two rate cuts this year, 2 expect one cut, and 7 believe rates will remain unchanged [2] - Overall, participants expressed a relatively optimistic view of the economic situation, noting robust economic growth and low unemployment rates, which somewhat alleviates the urgency for rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Most policymakers lean towards a rate cut this year, but there are differing opinions on the pace and magnitude of such cuts. Some are open to considering a cut at the end of July, while others believe it may not be appropriate to cut rates this year [3] - The minutes highlight significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, including timing, extent, and duration. Although economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs, the expansion of tariffs and other policy changes by the Trump administration has increased economic uncertainty [3]

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on July 10, opening at $3309.58 per ounce, reaching a high of $3330.25, a low of $3307.89, and closing at $3319.62 [1] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, marking the lowest level in two months and the fourth consecutive week of decline [2] - Continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating challenges for unemployed Americans in finding jobs [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that despite strong employment data, the Fed should consider lowering interest rates in the July meeting, arguing that current policy rates are too high [3] - Waller emphasized that inflation has cooled significantly and that the Fed's decision-making should not be influenced by political factors [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated the possibility of two rate cuts this year, noting that the impact of tariffs on prices is less severe than expected [5] - Fed officials expressed that the current economic situation is good, with the labor market near full employment, but inflation risks remain [5] Trade Developments - President Trump announced plans to impose a blanket tariff of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, dismissing concerns about negative impacts on the stock market or inflation [8] - On July 10, Trump declared a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1 [9] Geopolitical Context - Trump expressed disappointment with Russia regarding the ongoing Ukraine conflict and mentioned a new agreement for U.S. weapon shipments to NATO, which NATO will finance [10] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 1.44 tons to a total of 948.81 tons [11] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 7.2% [11]

Group 1 - The company is assessing the potential impact on its business if tariffs are imposed on Brazilian aerospace [1] - The company is collaborating with relevant authorities to re-establish a zero import tax rate for the aerospace industry [1]

Economic Conditions - The FOMC meeting minutes describe the current economic situation as resilient yet concerning, with economic activity maintaining a "robust" expansion despite net export fluctuations [2] - The labor market is characterized as "solid," with unemployment rates remaining low, close to the committee's estimates for maximum employment [2] - Potential signs of weakness include persistently low business and consumer confidence indicators, cautious corporate investment, slowing manufacturing activity, and pressures on low-income households [2] Inflation Challenges - Inflation remains a core challenge for the Federal Reserve, with inflation rates still "slightly above" the long-term target of 2% [3] - The core PCE inflation rate was reported at 2.6% in May, indicating limited progress [3] - The committee acknowledges an "uneven" process in returning inflation to target, with service inflation decreasing while goods inflation is rising, complicating the inflation outlook [3] Tariff Impact - The discussion on tariffs highlights them as a key source of uncertainty affecting monetary policy decisions, with expectations of upward pressure on prices [4] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and duration of tariff impacts [4] - Concerns exist that tariffs may have a "more lasting" effect on inflation and could influence inflation expectations, potentially leading to a spiral of rising prices and wages [4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The minutes reveal internal divisions within the committee regarding future monetary policy, particularly on whether to lower interest rates this year [5] - A majority believe that some degree of rate cuts may be appropriate, citing temporary tariff impacts and anchored inflation expectations [5] - Conversely, some members argue against rate cuts due to persistent inflation and significant upward risks [5][6] Neutral Rate Discussion - Comments regarding the current federal funds rate being close to neutral suggest that any necessary rate cuts may not need to be as substantial as previously anticipated [7] - This indicates that the current policy may not be as restrictive as it appears, adding complexity to future policy paths [7] Financial Market Dynamics - The minutes reflect a positive market response to easing trade tensions, with stock prices rising and credit spreads narrowing, but also highlight concerns over fiscal outlooks [8] - Discussions on liquidity reveal challenges posed by the debt ceiling and its impact on the Treasury General Account (TGA) [8] Credit Conditions - Credit conditions show a mixed picture, with large firms and high-credit borrowers having better access to credit, while small businesses and low-credit borrowers face tighter conditions [9] - Rising student loan delinquency rates post-moratorium are a significant concern, potentially impacting broader financial stability and consumer spending [9] Conclusion - The FOMC minutes illustrate a complex economic landscape characterized by robust growth and labor markets alongside persistent high inflation and significant policy uncertainty [10] - The committee's decision to maintain the status quo emphasizes a data-dependent and cautious approach, with key risks including tariffs, fiscal conditions, and credit quality [10]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns investors to be cautious of three "bear market" risks in the second half of the year, despite a rapid reallocation to risk assets in Q2, which has led to a return to a "golden girl" scenario pricing [1] Group 1: Key Risks - **Risk 1: Growth Shock** Economic growth may face significant downward pressure in the second half, particularly due to anticipated tariff impacts. The probability of a substantial market pullback is currently higher than that of a significant rise, driven by high valuations, weak leading indicators, and a slight deterioration in the business cycle score [2] - **Risk 2: Interest Rate Shock** Unexpected fluctuations in interest rates pose a second risk. If tariffs do not lead to a slowdown, inflation may rise again, exerting upward pressure on bond yields. The report suggests that long-term bond yields may decline moderately due to a more dovish Fed, but concerns over fiscal policy and rising yields in Europe and Japan could limit this downward space [3] - **Risk 3: Weak Dollar** A continued decline in the dollar may negatively impact multi-asset portfolios denominated in dollars. The report predicts further depreciation of the dollar over the next 12 months, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy and the independence of the Fed [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - **Diversification Strategies** Investors are advised to reassess stock allocations, particularly in multi-asset portfolios dominated by U.S. assets. Diversification through low-volatility stocks, defensive quality stocks, and gold is recommended to mitigate potential losses from growth shocks [2] - **Short-Duration Bonds** To reduce duration risk, investors are encouraged to favor short-duration bonds. Financial stocks, such as bank stocks, may serve as effective hedges against interest rate shocks due to their ability to benefit from a steepening yield curve [3] - **Emerging Markets and Currency Hedging** In a weakening dollar environment, emerging market equities and local currency bonds are expected to perform better. Investors should consider currency hedging and allocating to emerging markets and gold to lower dollar risk [5]

印度矿业部长：将讨论美国关税对铜的影响。 ...

金十数据7月9日讯，巴克莱FICC Research的五位成员说，美国的药品关税对亚洲新兴市场的影响可能 比铜关税更大。如果对新加坡的药品征收200%的关税，新加坡对美出口的增值加权关税或飙升4.5个百 分点，印度、韩国、马来西亚可能分别面临0.7、0.4和0.3个百分点的关税增幅；相比之下，即便美国对 铜征收50%关税，对亚洲新兴国家增值加权关税的影响也微乎其微。 机构：美国制药关税对亚洲新兴市场的影响可能大于铜关税 ...