Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts reflects a cautious approach, as the impact of tariffs has a lagging effect that has not yet fully manifested [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September decreased from approximately 65% before the meeting to around 45% afterward, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The Fed is expected to wait for two complete rounds of employment and inflation data before making further decisions, particularly regarding the transmission of commodity price pressures [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The outlook for rate cuts in 2023 has moderated, with expectations for 1-2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, and the first potential cut could occur in the fourth quarter [1] - Concerns about dollar credit risk and capital market performance may limit political pressures on the Fed, including potential calls for tariff adjustments or dismissing Fed Chair Powell [1]

Group 1 - AUO and Innolux both warned that the traditional peak season in the second half of the year will not be strong, leading to a downward revision of capital expenditure targets [1] - AUO reduced its capital expenditure target for 2025 from NT$30 billion to no more than NT$28 billion, a decrease of approximately 7% [1] - Both companies indicated that consumer demand is becoming conservative, which may affect sales during the year-end holiday season in the US [1] Group 2 - AUO's chairman mentioned that factors such as the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar and unclear tariffs have led to conservative inventory management by clients, resulting in expected declines in panel shipments across all product lines this quarter [1] - AUO estimated that the average exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar for the second half of the year will be NT$29, with over 90% of its revenue denominated in USD [1] - The company expects its display business revenue in NT$ to decrease compared to the third quarter, although USD revenue is anticipated to remain stable compared to the second quarter [1] Group 3 - AUO's general manager noted that Mobility Solution revenue in USD will continue to grow, while NT$ revenue is expected to decline by 5%, with annual growth in the single-digit percentage range [2] - The Vertical Solution segment is projected to see a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue due to AUO's increased control over Advantech [2] - In the second quarter, the combined revenue share of AUO's two major business segments reached 43%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-over-year [3] Group 4 - Innolux stated that panel demand will become conservative due to tariff issues and some clients pulling orders ahead of time [3] - The company expects a decline in shipments across all product lines this quarter, with commercial displays and non-display sectors projected to decrease by approximately 3% and consumer displays by about 5% [3] - Both companies are adopting a just-in-time production strategy to maintain supply-demand balance and price order in the market [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total Q2 revenue was $274 million, representing a sequential decline of 2.4% [8] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $87 million, down 7.6% sequentially, with adjusted EBITDA margins at 31.7% compared to 33.5% in Q1 [11][12] - GAAP income decreased to $49 million in Q2 from $54 million in Q1, primarily due to lower operating income [12] - Adjusted net income for Q2 was $53 million, or $0.66 per share, down from $59 million and $0.73 per share in Q1 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Pressure Control segment revenues were $180 million, down 5.5% sequentially, mainly due to lower rental business revenue [8][9] - Spoolable Technologies segment revenues increased to $96 million, up 3.9% sequentially, driven by higher domestic customer activity [10] - Operating income for the Pressure Control segment declined by $12 million or 22.1% sequentially, while operating income for Spoolable Technologies increased by $4.2 million or 17.5% [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Land rig count was reported at 526, which is 5% below the second quarter average [20] - The average rig count is expected to decline further, impacting pressure control revenue in Q3 [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a transformative acquisition of a controlling interest in Baker Hughes' surface pressure control business, aiming to diversify its footprint [6][23] - The focus remains on enhancing operational efficiencies and supply chain management, particularly in light of tariff impacts [17][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the second quarter faced challenges due to tariff increases and commodity market weakness, but free cash flow remained strong [6][24] - The company anticipates that the sharpest domestic activity declines for 2025 are behind them, with expectations for a broader geographic footprint post-acquisition [24] Other Important Information - The Board approved an 8% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.14 per share, reflecting confidence in cash flow durability [7][15] - Legal expenses related to ongoing litigation increased by approximately $2 million from the first quarter [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on pressure control margins - Management acknowledged that the unexpected doubling of tariffs impacted margins, but cost recovery initiatives were paused due to falling oil prices [27][28] Question: Customer confidence in ramping activity - Management indicated that customers are focused on capital discipline and returning cash to shareholders, which has led to a cautious approach towards CapEx expansion despite favorable oil prices [31][32] Question: Trends in drilling, completions, and production - Management noted that completions activity is expected to decline more significantly than drilling, with production activity not suffering to the same degree [39][40] Question: Acquisition strategy in the Middle East - Management expressed optimism about turning around the acquired business, focusing on supply chain improvements and cultural changes [42][46] Question: Legal charges and ongoing litigation - Management confirmed that trial delays would lead to further legal expenses, but the nature of the dispute involves IP issues related to the SafeLink product [52][53]

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5] Core Insights - Adidas reported a 12% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, with a net profit of €375 million, despite the impact of tariffs [2][7] - The company maintained its full-year guidance, expecting high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit growth for the main brand, despite increased costs due to tariffs [3][28] - All regions and channels achieved double-digit growth in the first half of the year, excluding the impact of Yeezy [4][11] Summary by Sections Performance and Guidance - Q2 revenue was €5.952 billion, a 2.2% year-over-year increase, with a 12% increase in the main brand's revenue at constant currency [2][7] - The company’s gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points, and operating profit increased by 58% to €546 million [4][24] - Management expects a revenue increase of at least €200 million if not for tariff impacts, maintaining a conservative outlook due to uncertainties [28][29] Regional Performance - All regions except Europe achieved double-digit growth in Q2, with North America showing a 15% increase and Latin America a 23% increase [11][19] - The Greater China region saw an 11% increase, benefiting from localized strategies [11][19] Product Category Performance - Apparel led growth with a 17% increase, while footwear grew by 9% [19][21] - Professional categories, particularly running and training, showed strong performance, with running exceeding 25% growth [19][21] Channel Performance - Wholesale channels led growth with a 14% increase, while DTC channels grew by 9% [23][24] - E-commerce faced challenges with a 3% decline when excluding Yeezy, but overall DTC remained strong [23][24] Cost and Margin Analysis - Gross margin improved to 51.7%, driven by reduced discounts and lower product and shipping costs [24][28] - SG&A expenses decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 42.8%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [24][28] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights confidence in Adidas' growth trajectory, recommending key suppliers like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, as well as core retailer Taobo [31][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 on sales of $1.5 billion, with an operating margin of 11% [6][23] - Free cash flow reached $78 million, a significant increase compared to the previous year, representing a cash conversion of 108% [7][26] - The effective tax rate for the second quarter was 18.3%, about 170 basis points better than planned [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerials segment sales were $607 million, with an operating margin improvement of 500 basis points sequentially, but about 200 basis points lower than expected due to customer mix [26][27] - Materials Processing (MP) sales were $434 million, 9% lower than last year, with an operating margin of 12.7%, showing a sequential improvement from 10% in Q1 [27][29] - Environmental Solutions (ES) generated $430 million in sales, with a 12.9% year-over-year growth and a 19.1% operating margin, reflecting strong operational execution [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Waste and recycling now represents approximately 30% of global revenue, characterized by low cyclicality and steady growth [16] - The company noted a two-speed profile in U.S. construction, with strength in large projects and infrastructure, while local private projects remain soft [17] - European markets are experiencing a weak economic environment in the near term, but there are encouraging signs for infrastructure and industrial spending growth in the medium to long term [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging synergies across its portfolio, particularly following the ESG acquisition, and is ahead of initial synergy targets [19][21] - The company plans to maintain its full-year EPS outlook of $4.7 to $5.1, expecting stronger performance in Environmental Solutions in the second half [7][35] - The company is also looking to invest in organic growth while returning capital to shareholders, with a new $150 million share buyback program announced [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by high interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties impacting capital decisions [15] - The company expects to see a significant increase in free cash flow compared to 2024, anticipating between $300 million and $350 million in 2025 [35] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the current dynamic environment and deliver long-term value to shareholders [38] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing direct and indirect tariff-related inflation on materials, estimating a net impact of approximately €0.50 for the full year [13] - The company has a strong liquidity position with $1.2 billion available, and plans to deleverage in the second half of the year [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong ES margins? - Management attributed the strong ES margins to operational efficiencies, improved execution in utilities, and favorable customer and product mix [42][43] Question: What drove the $20 million adjustment in EBITDA guidance? - The adjustment was driven by stronger outlook in ES, offset by unfavorable mix in Aerials and higher tariffs [50][51] Question: How do you view the margin outlook for Aerials in the second half? - Margins are expected to decline in the second half due to tariffs, lower sequential volume, and unfavorable customer mix [58] Question: What is the outlook for replacement demand? - Normal discussions on replacement demand are ongoing, with some signs of fleets aging in certain segments [71] Question: How are tariffs impacting the cost profile? - The company does not expect material impact from steel inflation due to hedging and local sourcing [108] Question: What is the outlook for digital revenue streams? - The company is expanding its Third Eye technology and exploring additional digital revenue opportunities [121]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter sales reached EUR 3.1 billion, down 7% year-on-year but up 6% sequentially, mainly due to increased North American OCTG prices and stable volumes [4] - EBITDA for the quarter was up 5% sequentially to USD 733 million, with an EBITDA margin close to 24% [4] - Operating cash flow was USD 673 million, with capital expenditure of USD 135 million, resulting in free cash flow of USD 538 million [5] - Net cash position amounted to EUR 3.7 billion at the end of the quarter after dividend payments and share buybacks [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average selling prices in the Tubes operating segment decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 6% sequentially [4] - The company expects lower sales in the third quarter due to reduced invoicing in fracking operations and lower shipments of line pipe [16][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Section 232 tariff on steel products increased from 25% to 50%, creating market uncertainty and affecting pricing dynamics [7] - The company anticipates that the current broad-based tariff approach will eventually shift to a more specific product-based approach [7] - The company noted that imports are expected to decrease as excess inventories are drawn down [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a strong U.S. domestic production base and enhancing its Rig Direct service to differentiate itself in the market [8] - The company is building local service bases in the Guyana Suriname Basin to support operations for major clients [11] - The acquisition of Shawcor is expected to enhance the company's ability to serve clients with a competitive offer and short lead times [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's solid industrial and commercial position despite a slowdown in drilling activity in some regions [6] - The outlook for the third quarter includes expectations of lower sales and invoicing due to various factors, including maintenance activities [20] - Management indicated that while the rig count in North America may not see a strong reduction, pricing dynamics will be influenced by tariff impacts [18] Other Important Information - The company has received significant project awards, including for the supply of casing and tubing for major projects in Brazil, Alaska, Nigeria, Angola, and the Mediterranean [9][11] - The company is optimistic about the development of the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina, despite current challenges [12][41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for 2025 considering tariff impacts and activity levels - Management noted that visibility for the third quarter is clearer, but the fourth quarter remains uncertain due to tariff negotiations and market dynamics [16][20] Question: Margins outlook for Q3 and Q4 - Management expects margins to be slightly below the current quarter but within the range of 20% to 25% [38] Question: Sales outlook in Argentina - Management indicated that the situation in Argentina is affected by reduced rig counts and cautious investment approaches [41] Question: Impact of imports on market share - Management stated that imports represent a significant share of demand in the U.S., and the tariff will impact pricing and market dynamics [49] Question: Potential for bringing forward share buybacks - Management confirmed that the second tranche of share buybacks will be considered in the upcoming Board meeting [51] Question: Sensitivity of revenues generated in Mexico - Management provided insights into the number of rigs operated by Pemex and the potential for increased shipments in the future [100] Question: Expectations for the Middle East market - Management noted that while Saudi Arabia has seen reduced activity, other regions in the Middle East are maintaining stable drilling levels [71] Question: Exposure to gas markets in the U.S. - Management highlighted the company's growing activity in gas markets, particularly in Haynesville and Appalachia [86] Question: Inventory levels and pricing dynamics - Management discussed the impact of increased imports on inventory levels and pricing pressures in the U.S. market [92]

Group 1 - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, does not believe that the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts will suddenly dissipate [1] - The risk of falling back into deflation is lower compared to March 2024 [1] - The linkage between inflation and wages continues to persist [1] - Price trends are now closer to the 2% target than before [1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time this year it has held rates steady [1] - The voting results for the rate decision were 9 in favor, 2 against, with one member absent; this is the first time since 1993 that two members have opposed the rate decision [1] - Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding the September rate, and they will consider economic information before the next meeting [1] Inflation - Core inflation is influenced by tariffs, with estimates suggesting that 30% to 40% of core inflation may stem from these tariffs [2] - The inflation rate is slightly above the target, but the economy remains solid despite uncertainties [3] - The committee is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [4] Economic Outlook - Recent indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic activity during the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [5] - Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.5% last year [6] - The Federal Reserve reiterated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, having removed previous language indicating that uncertainty had diminished [7] Financial Markets - The committee will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [8] Tariffs - Some prices of goods have begun to reflect the impact of higher tariffs more clearly, but the overall effect of tariffs on economic activity and inflation is still under observation [9] - Core PCE in June may have increased by 2.7% year-over-year, with tariffs pushing up prices of certain goods, while long-term inflation expectations remain aligned with the 2% target [10]

摩根大通固定收益全球主管米歇尔：关税的全面影响尚未显现。 ...