每经AI快讯，1月20日，英国30年期国债收益率自1月6日以来达到历史最高水平，日内上涨约5个基 点，至5.214%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese 30-year and 40-year government bond yields have risen by over 25 basis points due to investor skepticism regarding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's plan to lower food taxes [1][2] Group 1 - The 30-year government bond yield increased by 26.5 basis points, reaching 3.875% [1][2] - The 40-year government bond yield rose by 26 basis points, reaching 4.205% [1][2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.267%, marking the highest level since early September [1] Group 2 - The increase in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment and expectations regarding future interest rates and economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has increased by 13.5 basis points to 3.39% [1] Group 1 - The rise in bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term government debt in Japan [1] - The increase of 13.5 basis points reflects broader trends in the bond market and may influence future borrowing costs for the government [1] - Monitoring changes in bond yields is crucial for understanding economic conditions and investment opportunities in the Japanese market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has increased by 5 basis points, reaching 4.8863% [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surpassed 4%, marking the highest level since its issuance in 2007 and the first time any maturity of Japanese sovereign bonds has reached this level in over 30 years [1] - The 40-year bond yield increased by 6 basis points in a single day, while the 20-year bond yield rose by 9.5 basis points to 3.35%, indicating a significant shift in the Japanese bond market [1] - The current state of the Japanese bond market is characterized by a lack of buyers and ongoing sell-offs, as investors anticipate that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's party will secure more seats in the upcoming elections, allowing for more economic stimulus measures [1] Group 2 - Japanese insurance companies recorded a net sell-off of 822.4 billion yen in bonds with original maturities over 10 years, the largest since records began in 2004, contributing to bearish sentiment in the bond market [2] - The newly formed "Center Reform Alliance," consisting of Japan's largest opposition party and former ruling coalition members, plans to raise funds to reduce the food sales tax to zero, increasing the risk in the upcoming elections [2] - Investors are cautious ahead of the 20-year bond auction, as the results will be a critical test to determine if the recent rise in yields can offset concerns about fiscal deterioration affecting bond values [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing sell-off of Japanese long-term government bonds, leading to a rise in yields [1] - On January 20, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond reached 2.330%, marking the highest level since February 1999 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector (specifically for treasury bonds) is "oscillation" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The 2025 annual GDP of China reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year. The Q4 GDP had a stable sequential growth. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value of large - scale industries exceeded market expectations. The service industry production index in December increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline in December last year and in the first half of January this year. The central bank cut the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points on January 19, 2026, and indicated there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The treasury bond futures' main contracts mostly had a slight correction, with the 30 - year variety falling more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell in the morning session and fluctuated narrowly until the close. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.22%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [3] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Monday, the isolation interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [3] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.29 basis points to 1.41%, the 5 - year fell 0.01 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 0.31 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 3.81 basis points to 2.34% [3] - Economic data: In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q4, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year (market expected a 2.4% decline), and in 2024, it increased by 3.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2025 decreased by 8.7% year - on - year (12.9% in 2024), and the sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year (17.1% in 2024). The added value of large - scale industries in 2025 increased by 5.9% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024). In December, the added value of large - scale industries actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year (market expected 4.9%, 4.8% in November). In Q4 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of large - scale industries was 74.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in Q3 and 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2024. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 were 501,202 billion yuan, growing 3.7% year - on - year (3.5% in 2024). In December, the retail sales increased by 0.9% year - on - year (market expected 1.5%, 1.3% in November). The added value of the service industry in 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year (5.1% in 2024). In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year - on - year (4.2% in November). In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, the same as the previous month and the same period last year [3] Market Logic - The 2025 GDP growth met market expectations. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly had a slight correction, and the 30 - year variety fell more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has increased by 7.5 basis points to 3.33% [1]

日本10年期国债收益率上涨6.0个基点至2.330%。 ...