每经AI快讯，12月1日，印度5年期国债收益率上升5个基点至6.28%，为9月以来最高。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，日本10年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至1.87%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，日本30年期国债收益率短暂触及3.395%，创历史新高。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Japan's 5-year government bond yield has increased by 6.5 basis points to 1.375% [1]

（文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 总台记者12月1日获悉，当天日本债券市场上，作为长期利率指标的10年期新发国债收益率一度升至 1.840%，这是自2008年6月以来的最高水平。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，日本10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至1.85%，30年期国债收益率上升5个基点 至3.385%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 2-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2008, indicating market expectations of a closer interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Bond Market - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1% [1] - The market is currently pricing in a 62% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan during the policy decision on December 19, which is expected to rise to nearly 90% by the January meeting [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase short-term debt issuance, adding 300 billion yen each for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and 6.3 trillion yen in treasury bills [1] Group 2: Currency Market - The yen appreciated against the dollar, rising by 0.3% to 155.77 [1] Group 3: Economic Policy - The increase in debt issuance is aimed at funding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic stimulus plan, which is anticipated to put pressure on short-term Japanese government bonds [1]

周五欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率涨0.1个基点，报3.411%，11月份累跌0.9个基点，两年期法债收 益率累涨6.0个基点、30年期法债收益率累涨2.8个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率跌0.2个基点，报 3.401%，11月份累涨1.8个基点。西班牙10年期国债收益率跌0.1个基点，报3.165%，11月份累涨2.3个基 点。希腊10年期国债收益率涨0.3个基点，报3.292%，11月份累涨3.3个基点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak sentiment in the bond market persists, and it is waiting for the negative factors to materialize. The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. However, the current situation of the fundamentals and the capital market does not support a trend - like rebound in yields, so the bond market trend remains uncertain [6][70]. - Although the rumors of strict public - offering sales regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations, preventive adjustments help release potential risks in advance, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent unilateral trend of the bond market [6][70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors such as interest rate cuts, inflation, or real - estate policies [6][70][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In November, the bond market did not continue the previous month's recovery trend. Near the end of the month, rumors of the upcoming implementation of public - offering sales regulations resurfaced, and market sentiment quickly weakened. As of the mid - day on November 28, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL decreased by 0.12%, 0.25%, 0.48%, and 1.68% respectively within the month. As of the close on November 27, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.6325%, 1.6068%, 1.6707%, and 1.7541% respectively [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The weakening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year and the improvement in inflation expectations continue to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend is still uncertain with few high - certainty opportunities [6]. - With the public - offering sales regulations still undecided, the market at the end of the month is more dominated by investor behavior and sentiment. The rumors of strict regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations. However, preventive adjustments help release potential risks, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [6]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Lightly bet on short - term rebounds, and a better window for going long may appear after the negative factors materialize [7]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [7]. - Options: No recommendations [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Logic Analysis 3.2.1 "Weak Reality" Continues, Focus on Potential Expectation Gaps - In October, major domestic macro - economic indicators generally weakened. In terms of demand, in the investment sector, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 12.2%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was - 1.62%, a new low for the year. In the consumption sector, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% [10]. - In the foreign trade sector, in October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The decline in export growth was related to the high base in the same period last year and the intensification of Sino - US trade disputes. The weakening of import growth reflected the weak domestic demand [11]. - On the production side, although there was still resilience, the year - on - year growth rate also declined. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%, a new low for the year [11]. - The bond market has not fully priced in the weak fundamentals because it is not difficult to achieve the annual economic growth target, and the decline in indicators may be temporary. However, the continuous weakening of some domestic demand indicators since the second half of the year may indicate that the multiplier effect of previous policies is not obvious, and the self - repair ability of the domestic economy is weak. Geopolitical factors also cannot be ignored [12][15]. 3.2.2 Prices Continue to Recover, Inflation Expectations Are Optimistic - Price indicators continued to recover. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI were both 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of core CPI both increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of PPI were - 2.1% and 0.1% respectively, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the month - on - month growth rate turned positive for the first time this year [21]. - The current recovery of CPI is driven by structural factors, and there may still be deflationary pressure. The high - frequency data shows that the upward momentum of industrial product prices is not strong, and price recovery may require demand - side policy support. Multiple factors may lead to the GDP deflator turning positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [22][35]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and an Inflection Point in M1 Appears - In October, financial data was mediocre. New RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 280 billion yuan. The balance of loans increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [36]. - The slowdown in credit expansion affected deposit creation. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, showing an inflection point [39][41]. - Weak financial data is favorable for the bond market, but the market has already priced in the weakness to a certain extent. The probability of the central bank increasing monetary policy due to weak financial data is not high. In November, the loan situation may improve, and the social financing scale may be supported, but the year - on - year growth rate of some financial indicators such as M1 may continue to slow down [49]. 3.2.4 The Central Bank's Support Remains, but It's Difficult for Fund Prices to Decline - In November, the market's capital supply and demand were generally balanced. As of November 27, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3740% and 1.4685% respectively, up 3.68bp and 1.06bp from the previous month. The central bank's attitude towards maintaining liquidity is unchanged, and the reverse - repurchase operation shows a peak - shaving and valley - filling characteristic, and the pace of "long - term money" injection is stable [55]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report of the central bank continues to have a relatively loose tone, but the expectation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts within the year has further decreased. It is difficult for fund prices to decline, which restricts the decline of Treasury bond yields, especially short - term yields. The report may also imply that the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is around 2.25% [65][67]. 3.2.5 The Public - Offering New Regulations Are Uncertain, and Incremental Information Is Mostly Negative - In mid - to late November, some investors may have briefly speculated on the central bank's Treasury bond trading information in November, causing the TF and T contracts to perform relatively strongly. However, near the end of the month, rumors of public - offering sales regulations suppressed bond market sentiment. Incremental information such as potential mortgage interest subsidy policies, Sino - US leader phone calls, and rumors of the central bank's bond purchases falling short of expectations are relatively negative [68]. - If the mortgage interest subsidy policy is implemented next year with a large subsidy amount and wide coverage, it will be negative for the bond market in the long - term, but the short - term impact may be mainly on sentiment [68]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend remains uncertain. The public - offering sales regulations are uncertain, and short - term fluctuations are intensified, but there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [70][71]. - In terms of operations, after the sharp decline in Treasury bond futures at the end of the month, short - term unilateral trading can moderately bet on oversold rebounds. In the long - term, it is reasonable to allocate some long positions in Treasury bond futures to hedge against macro - expectation gaps. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [71].

每经AI快讯，11月28日，40年期日本国债收益率下跌2.0个基点，至3.665%。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...