Core Viewpoint - The New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that there is no evidence of a significant shift away from dollar assets by investors, indicating continued strength in the dollar [1] Group 1 - Factors supporting the strength of the dollar remain intact, suggesting a stable outlook for dollar-denominated investments [1] - An increasing number of investors are hedging against dollar risk exposure, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic environment [1] - There is still a considerable distance to reach the 2% inflation target, indicating ongoing economic challenges that may affect investment strategies [1]

近期，多数美联储官员认为本月底将维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%至4.5%不变。6月会议上，美联储官员预 计今年晚些时候可能降息两次，投资者则普遍预计9月会议将开启降息。不过，也有少数官员主张更早降息，认为 特朗普政府不断变化的进口关税政策对物价的影响可忽略不计。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周就表示，货币政 策可能过于紧缩，可考虑7月降息，且强调其利率观点与政治无关。 尽管特朗普一直向美联储施压要求尽快降息，甚至曾批评鲍威尔工作"糟糕"，但近日在被问及是否会解雇鲍威尔 时，特朗普称无相关计划。美联储官员则始终专注于经济数据本身。 哈马克称，当前利率已非常接近中性利率水平，经济展现出韧性且运行良好。在她看来，除非劳动力市场出现明 显疲软，否则降息缺乏依据。目前通胀率虽从疫情严重时超7%降至3%以下，但持续在该区间徘徊，未达美联储 2%的目标，这是暂不考虑降息的主因。她强调，需等待已出台新政策对通胀的影响进一步明晰。 对于7月29日至30日举行的FOMC会议，哈马克秉持开放态度，表示将依据经济数据和讨论方向做决策。但她明确 指出，就业方面已达成目标，通胀却未达标，因此有必要维持限制性货币政策，以确保通胀降至2 ...

Group 1 - Cleveland Fed President Harmack emphasized that due to persistently high inflation in the U.S. and ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact of trade tariffs on price pressures, there is currently no immediate need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Harmack stated that the inflation level remains above the 2% target, which is a significant barrier to any short-term reduction in credit costs [1] - Most Fed officials seem to agree that the current target federal funds rate range (between 4.25% and 4.5%) will remain unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] Group 2 - A minority of Fed officials are inclined to consider a rate cut in July, arguing that the aggressive and changing import tariffs from the Trump administration will only have a one-time effect on inflation [2] - Fed Governor Waller indicated that current policies may be too tight and suggested that a reduction in policy rates could be considered [2] - Harmack warned that the evolving nature of tariffs makes it unclear how their impact will manifest, suggesting that a cautious approach is advisable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker emphasizes that the inflation target has not yet been reached, making it crucial to maintain a tightening monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is focused on achieving its inflation target before considering any changes to its current monetary policy stance [1] - Harker highlights the importance of continued monetary policy tightening to combat persistent inflation [1]

Core Views - There is a divergence in views among European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding interest rate policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts if economic growth underperforms and inflation declines excessively, while others believe current rates are appropriate and only a significant deviation in inflation would warrant a cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB's governing council, suggests that if economic growth is weaker than expected, leading to a significant drop in inflation, the ECB should consider further rate cuts [2]. - Panetta emphasizes the need for a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be based on existing information and its impact on inflation forecasts [2][3]. - Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's executive board, argues that the current interest rates are suitable and that the threshold for further rate cuts is high, only to be considered if inflation significantly deviates from targets [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Schnabel asserts that the economy shows resilience despite uncertainties, and the current inflation trajectory aligns with expectations, negating immediate concerns for further rate cuts [5][6]. - There are concerns among some policymakers regarding the potential impact of ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which could affect economic activity and inflation [6]. - The ECB plans to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming meeting, with most officials preferring to observe economic trends before making further decisions [5][6]. Group 3: Banking Sector and Technology Investment - Panetta highlights the importance of technology investment in the banking sector, noting that such investments have increased by approximately 2 percentage points over the past decade [2]. - He also points out the risks associated with new technologies, prompting the Italian central bank to enhance oversight of financial intermediaries and their suppliers [3]. - Issues identified include low participation from corporate entities, incomplete IT asset inventories, and inadequate access controls for sensitive data [3].

欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔：进一步降息将需要显著偏离通胀目标。 ...

Core Insights - Brazilian Central Bank Governor Gabriel Galipolo acknowledged that inflation levels have exceeded government targets for six consecutive months since the second half of 2024, with expectations to return to target range only by the end of Q1 2026 [1] - The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN) requires the Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to maintain a median level of 3% starting in 2025, with a tolerance range of 1.5% to 4.5% [1] - As of June 2025, Brazil's inflation rate reached 5.35%, significantly above the upper limit of the target range [1] Group 1 - The main reasons for uncontrolled inflation include strong economic activity, faster-than-expected growth in household consumption and investment, unanchored market inflation expectations, and rising prices of services, fuels, and food [1] - The recent depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar has increased import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] - Galipolo noted that economic performance has exceeded expectations, with a persistently overheated labor market and significant deviations in inflation expectations from the second half of 2024, reflecting increased stickiness and inertia in price mechanisms [1] Group 2 - In response to rising price pressures, the Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) restarted the interest rate hike cycle in September 2024, raising the benchmark rate to 15%, a recent high [2] - The Central Bank emphasized maintaining a "sustained tightening policy stance" and may further increase rates as necessary [2] - Galipolo stated that if inflation does not return to the target range as expected, the Central Bank will publish explanatory supplementary documents quarterly in the Monetary Policy Report and may write to the government to explain reasons and countermeasures [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) must keep all options open regarding interest rate decisions due to high economic uncertainty, as stated by Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's governing council and the head of the German central bank [1] - Nagel emphasized that committing to a specific interest rate path or ruling out future actions would be unwise, highlighting the need for caution and data-driven decisions at each meeting [1] - With inflation having returned to the target level of 2% and the eurozone economy showing resilience against external challenges, ECB officials suggest that the series of rate cuts may be nearing an end, although some officials remain open to further easing [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised by several policymakers, including the head of the French central bank, about inflation potentially remaining below the ECB's 2% target, especially with a stronger euro [2] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate that consumer price growth will remain below 2% for the next 18 months, with a return to the target level expected only by 2027 [2] - Nagel noted that while current inflation is around 2%, there is cautious optimism about maintaining this level in the medium term, despite ongoing high service sector inflation [2] Group 3 - Nagel reiterated that large-scale asset purchases should always be an absolute exception due to the risks they pose to the central bank's balance sheet [3] - Although ECB policymakers retain all tools, including quantitative easing, for future use, there is no clear indication of the conditions under which these tools would be employed [3] - Future use of quantitative easing may be approached with greater caution due to potential consequences such as central bank losses and asset bubbles [3]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) does not need to overly worry about inflation temporarily falling below the 2% target and should not rush to adjust interest rates [1][2] - ECB member Boris Vujcic indicated that inflation is expected to remain below the target for the next 18 months, with a return to 2% projected by 2027 [1] - Vujcic emphasized that the ECB has the "room to wait" for more data to determine future actions regarding interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - Some ECB colleagues, including Olli Rehn and Francois Villeroy de Galhau, have expressed concerns about prolonged inflation below 2%, particularly regarding the potential strengthening of the euro [2] - After eight consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points, officials have hinted that the easing cycle may soon end, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts this month but at least one more cut by the end of the year [2] - Vujcic noted that the current inflation and interest rates are both at 2%, indicating a balanced risk environment for prices [2]

巴西财政部副部长Galipolo：通胀目标为3%，这不是建议，而是根据法令规定的要求。 ...