Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, CPI remained flat at 0% month-on-month, while PPI ended a consecutive eight-month decline, indicating a potential turning point for PPI [1] - Core CPI growth has rebounded for four consecutive months due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and regulating low-price competition, although overall CPI year-on-year growth fell to -0.4% due to food prices [2] - The PPI is expected to see a slow recovery due to a poor demand environment and market-oriented capacity governance, remaining in negative growth territory for the year [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The antimony supply is tightening as Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop to zero in the first half of 2025, leading to potential price increases in the domestic market [3] - Antimony prices have fluctuated this year, influenced by export policies and demand changes, with expectations of price increases if export restrictions ease [3] Group 3: Company Research - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) reported significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by accelerated international expansion and increased overseas revenue and cement sales [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Megachip Color (603062.SH) also experienced rapid revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with new business developments in wind power and marine coatings contributing to sales [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 270 million, 300 million, and 330 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining an "increase" rating [5]

Group 1 - The effects of anti-involution policies are beginning to show in the PPI data, with commodity price increases leading to price recovery in downstream industries [1][3] - In August, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.4%, while the PPI year-on-year growth rate was -2.9%, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [1][2] - The core CPI has shown resilience, with a significant year-on-year increase, despite food prices being a major drag due to the pig cycle [1][2] Group 2 - Food price declines are primarily driven by pork and egg prices, with the pig cycle in a bottoming phase and high inventory levels affecting egg prices [2] - The PPI data reflects a recovery in upstream mining prices, with coal mining and black metal industries showing month-on-month increases of 2.8% and 2.1% respectively [3] - The anti-involution policy focuses on addressing overcapacity caused by "herd investment" in downstream industries, aiming for more sustainable price recovery [3]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) transitioned from a month-on-month decline of 0.2% to flat in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, a reduction in the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [2] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the CPI decline, with pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits having a notable downward impact [2][3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [3][4] - Service prices have shown a gradual increase since March, with a 0.6% rise in August, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month stability in August ended an eight-month downward trend, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5] - The year-on-year PPI decline of 2.9% is the first narrowing since March, driven by enhanced market competition and proactive macroeconomic policies [5] Future Outlook - Experts predict an improvement in supply-demand structures, which is expected to support a reasonable recovery in prices [4][5]

[Music] Producer prices fell a tenth of a percent in August while expectations were that inflation would increase. We're still awaiting of course Thursday's CPI data to see how consumer prices fared in the month. But a positive signal to investors who are anticipating the Fed will cut rates next week. Ed Yardi, our Denny Research president, joining me now to talk more through all of this. Ed, it's great to see you. So, does this wholesale inflation number sort of confirm what we're going to get from the Fed ...

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in August remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, while the year-on-year decline was 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has positively influenced prices, with some energy and raw material sectors experiencing price increases month-on-month [3][4] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been strengthened, providing significant support for prices of covered goods, with transportation tool prices stabilizing month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [3] - Service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with household services, medical services, and educational services leading the increase, indicating the ongoing release of service consumption potential [3] - The overall low price level since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth stabilization policies [5]

Group 1 - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month changed from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month to flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March of this year [1][3] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has contributed to the stabilization of prices, with the transportation equipment prices remaining flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [2][3] Group 2 - The ongoing implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption is becoming a key driver for a moderate recovery in basic price levels, as evidenced by the increase in household appliance prices by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2][4] - The service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in August, indicating the potential for service consumption to be further released [2][3] - The overall low price level trend since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth-stabilizing policies [3][4]

Market Trends & Expectations - The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is closing back in on 4% [1][2] - Economists anticipate consumer prices rose slightly more than in July, with an annualized rate just under 3% [1] - A surprise drop in wholesale prices (PPI) occurred in August, falling by 0.1%, against consensus estimates expecting an increase [1] - The market was surprisingly not up more despite the magnitude of the PPI data [4][6] Potential Monetary Policy Implications - If the PPI trend continues, it could theoretically lead to deflation, although it's too early to confirm [3] - Continued reports of this nature suggest rates are likely to continue to come down, which would be positive for the markets [3][4] - If upcoming CPI data doesn't completely contradict the PPI data, the Fed may be compelled to cut rates [5] - The possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut, previously considered dramatic, now seems more plausible given weakening labor and inflation data [5][6]

Um, while AI optimism is booming though, there are some concerns about the broader economy. JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond told our Lesie Picker, "The latest jobs data confirms that the economy is weakening, as he put it. That comes as investors turn their attention to a key inflation report tomorrow morning." Joining us now is Pollson Perspectives author Jim Pollson. Jim, we we did get another inflation report though, producer price index suggesting that wholesale prices not surging as much as people feared.So ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization after a 0.2% decline in the previous month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [1][2] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with a significant impact on CPI, contributing approximately 0.51 percentage points to the decline [2] - The core CPI's growth indicates the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month stabilization is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, leading to price increases in energy and raw materials [2][3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed due to a combination of lower comparison bases from the previous year and proactive macroeconomic policies [3] - Analysts suggest that PPI may enter a recovery phase, supported by improved market competition and rising demand for upgraded consumption [3]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The rise in core CPI is attributed to effective consumption-boosting policies, with the industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy also seeing an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][4] - Food prices showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease, as the supply of food remained ample [3][5] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline of 2.9%, the first reduction in the decline since March, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][4] - Prices in key industries such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing experienced a reduction in year-on-year decline, reflecting better market conditions due to the ongoing construction of a unified national market [5][6] - Emerging industries and technological innovations are positively impacting prices, with specific sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing seeing a year-on-year price increase of 1.1% [7][8]