1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from December 22, 2025, to December 28, 2025. The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable, but the year - on - year increase has narrowed, and the long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been adjusted down. Most sub - indices show changes in growth rates, including narrowing year - on - year increases or expanding decreases [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.3 points (previous value: 129.2 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is adjusted down, with a signal factor of 3.2% (previous value: 3.4%) [9]. 3.2 Production:开工率多数回落 (Most Operating Rates Decline) - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.8 (previous value: 127.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. Operating rates such as electric furnace, polyester, semi - tire, full - tire, PTA, and PX have changed, with most showing a decline [9][11][16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales:商品房成交面积小幅上升 (Slight Increase in Commercial Housing Transaction Area) - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 40.7 (previous value: 40.8), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline has expanded. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 41.4 million square meters (previous value: 34.9 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.2% (previous value: 1.7%) [9][11][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment:石油沥青开工率回升 (Recovery of Asphalt Operating Rate) - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.0 (previous value: 122.1), with a year - on - year increase of 8.3 points (previous value: 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The operating rate of asphalt is 31.3% (previous value: 27.6%) [9][11][39]. 3.5 Export:运价指数小幅上行 (Slight Increase in Freight Rate Index) - The export high - frequency index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 0.3 points (previous value: 0.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1146.7 points (previous value: 1124.7 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 300.6 points (previous value: 293.9 points) [9][11][46]. 3.6 Consumption:日均电影票房回升 (Recovery of Daily Average Movie Box Office) - The consumption high - frequency index is 121.1 (previous value: 121.1), with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points (previous value: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The daily average movie box office is 10,811 million yuan (previous value: 9,836 million yuan) [9][11][56]. 3.7 CPI:水果、鸡肉价格上涨 (Increase in Fruit and Chicken Prices) - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.6 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [10][11][63]. 3.8 PPI:铜铝现货、原油价格上涨 (Increase in Copper, Aluminum Spot, and Crude Oil Prices) - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,088 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,739 US dollars/ton), the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,916 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,855 US dollars/ton), and the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 62 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 60 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][69]. 3.9 Transportation:客运量全面上涨 (Comprehensive Increase in Passenger Volume) - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.9 (previous value: 133.7), with a year - on - year increase of 11.0 points (previous value: 11.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities is 3,905 million person - times (previous value: 3,863 million person - times), the highway logistics freight rate index is 1052 points (previous value: 1051 points), and the number of domestic flights is 12,353 (previous value: 12,172) [10][11][80]. 3.10 Inventory:纯碱库存小幅回落 (Slight Decline in Soda Ash Inventory) - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.7 (previous value: 163.6), with a year - on - year increase of 7.4 points (previous value: 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The inventory days of PTA are 3.6 days (previous value: 3.8 days), and the soda ash inventory is 146.9 million tons (previous value: 151.6 million tons) [10][11][87]. 3.11 Financing:地方债融资由正转负 (Local Government Bond Financing Turns Negative) - The financing high - frequency index is 245.9 (previous value: 245.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.9 points (previous value: 30.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local government bonds is - 3200 million yuan (previous value: 28100 million yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 40800 million yuan (previous value: 57500 million yuan) [10][11][98].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that "technology first" is the strongest theme of the current bull market, supported by three long-term advantages: relative profitability, overseas mapping, and global semiconductor cycle resonance [1] - The "profit recovery" slow bull market presents cyclical opportunities, with PPI being a key indicator providing leading signals for marginal recovery [1] - The performance of dividend styles in 2026 is expected to outperform that of 2025, indicating a shift from valuation-driven investments to factor-based investments as the market transitions from a valuation bull to a slow bull [1] Group 2 - In 2026, emphasis should be placed on factors, with the most effective profitability factors being marginal changes in profit growth, profit growth, and revenue growth [1] - From an annual effectiveness perspective, revenue growth, profit growth, ROE, and ROIC are identified as the most effective profitability factors [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy shows mixed signals with some production indicators weakening while demand in certain areas improves, and inflation is affected by factors such as rising agricultural product prices and rebounding oil prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth 3.1.1 Production - Power plant daily consumption is weaker than the same period in previous years. On December 23, the average daily consumption of 6 large power - generation groups was 80.0 tons, up 0.1% from December 16. On December 19, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 201.2 tons, down 0.3% from December 12 [5][12] - Blast furnace operating rates mainly declined. On December 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from December 12; the capacity utilization rate was 84.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from December 12. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from December 12 [5][17] - Tire operating rates fluctuated slightly. On December 18, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 64.1%, up 0.1 percentage point from December 11; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 71.4%, down 0.2 percentage point from December 11 [5][20] 3.1.2 Demand - New home sales in 30 cities improved month - on - month. From December 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 32.3 million square meters, up 37.6% from the same period in November, but down compared to previous years [5][27] - The retail growth of the auto market was weak. In December, retail sales were down 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 23% year - on - year [5][31] - Steel prices fluctuated strongly. On December 23, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil prices changed by +1.5%, +1.1%, - 0.6%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to December 16 [5][36] - Cement prices rebounded locally. On December 23, the national cement price index rose 0.3% compared to December 16, but prices in East China and the Yangtze River region declined [5][37] - Glass prices fluctuated weakly. On December 23, the active glass futures contract price was 1,027 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from December 16 [5][43] - Container shipping freight rate indices rose for two consecutive weeks. On December 19, the CCFI index rose 0.6% and the SCFI index rose 3.1% compared to December 12 [5][46] 3.2 Inflation 3.2.1 CPI - Pork prices stopped falling and rebounded. On December 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.5 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from December 16 [5][51] - The agricultural product price index was significantly higher than in recent years. On December 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index fell 0.2% compared to December 16. By variety, fruits (+4.0%) > chicken (+1.5%) > pork (+0.7%) > mutton (+0.7%) > eggs (+0.4%) > beef (+0.03%) > vegetables (- 1.7%) [5][55] 3.2.2 PPI - Oil prices rebounded. On December 23, Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices were 63.2 and 58.4 dollars/barrel, up 4.3% and 5.6% respectively from December 16 [5][58] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On December 23, LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices rose 3.5% and 2.6% respectively compared to December 16 [63] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in December, but the year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the performance of various indicators shows different trends. For example, the PPI in November 2025 is 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November. The GDP in 2025 is expected to increase, and the PCE is 3.1%. In 2026, GDP growth and PPI trends also have corresponding forecasts, with GDP expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%, and PPI expected to be between -1% - 0 [36][40] - The performance of different investment - related data such as 300, 50, 500, and 1000 also shows different percentage changes in different periods from 2005 - 2025 [7][11][16] 3. Summary by Directory Section 1: 2025 - **1.1**: The data of 300 in 2005 was 300, with a 60% change. In 2007, it was still 300. From 2008 - 2020, it had a 25% - 40% change, and in 2020, it had a 10% - 20% change. In 2025, there is also a certain change range [7] - **1.2**: The data of 300 is involved, and in 2025, the combined data of 300, 50, 500, and 1000 shows different percentage distributions [27] - **1.3**: It involves data from 1 - 3, related to Deepseek AI, and there is a 0.03% - 2.38% change, with 17% in a certain situation [34] - **1.4**: It involves data from 4 - 6, with a value of 5 in a certain situation [34] - **1.5**: It involves data from 7 - 8, with values of 7, 8, 9, and a 0.03% - 2.38% change, 17% in a certain situation [34] - **1.6**: It involves data from 9 - 12, related to AI, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [34] - **1.7**: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - **1.8**: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - **1.10**: The data of 1000 is involved [32] Section 2: 2026 - **2.1**: In 2025, the interest rate increased by 75BP to 3.50% - 3.75% in December, and the GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%. The PCE in 2025 is 3.1%, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.6% - 2.5%, reaching 2% in 2028. The FED may adjust the interest rate, with possible adjustments of 25bp, 50bp, or 75 - 100bp [36] - **2.2**: PPI in 2026 is involved. In 2023, PPI was - 2.5%, and in November 2025, it was 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November [40] - **2.3**: It is related to the PPI situation from 2012 - 2015 and 2016, and the PPI in 2026 is expected to be between - 1% - 0 [43][46] - **2.6**: In 2025, the PE - TTM of 300 and 50 is involved [50] - **2.7**: No specific content provided - **2.8**: No specific content provided - **2.9**: No specific content provided Section 3 - **3.1**: It involves IC, IM, IF, and IH [59] - **3.2**: It involves IM and IF, with a 5% change in a 1 - 3 situation [59] - **3.3**: It involves MO, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points (previous value: 129.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points (previous increase: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.7 (previous value: 127.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.8 (previous value: 41.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.2), with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.4 points (previous increase: 0.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.1 (previous value: 121.0), with a week - on - week increase of 3.4 points (previous increase: 3.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%); the month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.2%) [2][11]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.6 (previous value: 163.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.4 points (previous increase: 7.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The high - frequency transportation index is 133.7 (previous value: 133.4), with a week - on - week increase of 11.0 points (previous increase: 10.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The high - frequency financing index is 245.2 (previous value: 244.6), with a week - on - week increase of 30.9 points (previous increase: 30.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - items are built [9]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points, with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded [2][10]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Rises - The current electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 60.3%); the polyester operating rate is 88.9% (previous value: 88.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.4% (previous value: 71.6%); the full - tire operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.1%); the PTA operating rate is 73.8% (previous value: 73.8%); the PX operating rate is 89.2% (previous value: 89.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 42.4 tons (previous value: 43.9 tons) [16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Recovers - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the current week is 34.9 million square meters (previous value: 27.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.7% (previous value: 1.9%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Fluctuates Narrowly - The current asphalt operating rate is 27.6% (previous value: 27.8%) [42]. 3.5 Exports: Freight Rate Index Rises Slightly - The current CCFI index is 1124.7 points (previous value: 1118.1 points); the RJ/CRB index is 293.9 points (previous value: 300.3 points) [44]. 3.6 Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Declines - The daily average movie box office is 98.36 million yuan (previous value: 171.46 million yuan) [53]. 3.7 CPI: Fruit Prices Rise - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [60]. 3.8 PPI: Kerosene Prices Fall, Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 719 yuan/ton (previous value: 761 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 60 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 62 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 11,739 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,692 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,855 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,849 US dollars/ton) [64]. 3.9 Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.63 million person - times (previous value: 39.83 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (previous value: 1052 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,172 (previous value: 12,137) [75]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases Significantly - The current electrolytic aluminum inventory is 190,000 tons (previous value: 167,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 151,600 tons (previous value: 149,800 tons) [82]. 3.11 Financing: Local Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local bonds in the week is 28.1 billion yuan (previous value: 62.3 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 57.5 billion yuan (previous value: 73.2 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91% (previous value: 0.84%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.72% (previous value: - 0.79%) [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various economic indicators and market trends during different time intervals, including price changes, industry growth, and investment-related data [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Time Interval Analysis - **Market and Industry Indicators**: During Dec 15 - Dec 19, 2025 (also Dec 21, 2025), there were changes in multiple market and industry indicators such as shipping (BDI), inflation (CPI, PPI), and financial rates (SHIBOR, BPDR, BPGC). For example, the BDI increased by a certain percentage, and CPI and PPI had specific growth rates [1][3] - **Industry and Investment**: Different industries showed distinct trends. The shipping industry had fluctuations in freight rates; the chemical industry had changes in production and sales volumes; and the financial market had adjustments in interest rates and investment yields [1][3] Other Time Interval Analysis - **Long - Term Trends**: Analyses of long - term data from various sources (Wind) showed trends in different economic and market indicators over years, which could help in understanding the overall economic situation and making investment decisions [13][22] - **Industry - Specific Analysis**: Specific industries like shipping, chemical, and finance were analyzed in detail, including factors affecting their performance, such as supply and demand, cost changes, and policy impacts [1][3]

Group 1: CPI Insights - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year[7] - The core CPI remained high at 1.2% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[10] - Food prices contributed positively to the CPI, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.2% month-on-month, while pork prices fell by 2.2%[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, but the year-on-year decline expanded to 2.2%[15] - Upstream prices were supported by rising global non-ferrous metal prices, while the impact of "anti-involution" policies continued to manifest in certain industries[15] - Coal mining and non-ferrous mining sectors led the PPI increase, with coal prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month[15] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and recent central economic meetings emphasized the importance of service consumption, indicating a potential shift in price recovery drivers towards service CPI in 2026[14] - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies and anti-involution policies is expected to continue influencing market dynamics, with a focus on core service CPI recovery elasticity[14] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and the potential inadequacy of policy measures[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November continued to rise month-on-month for the second consecutive month, with the year-on-year decline stabilizing compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of narrowing year-on-year declines since August [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Influencing PPI - Consumption upgrade is driving price increases, with notable price rises in sports and cultural goods. In November, the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 20.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The price of sports balls manufacturing increased by 4.3%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month [1][3]. - The development of emerging industries is positive, with accelerated industrial transformation towards intelligence and sustainability. In November, the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling increased by 7.8% year-on-year, up by 1 percentage point from the previous month. Prices for graphite and carbon products rose by 3.8%, and integrated circuit manufacturing prices increased by 1.7% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Competition and Policy Implications - The effects of regulating market competition are becoming evident, with the year-on-year price declines for photovoltaic equipment and components, lithium-ion batteries, and new energy vehicles narrowing by 2.0, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points, respectively [2][4]. - The current PPI is still declining year-on-year, and further efforts are needed to solidify the foundation for a reasonable price recovery. Future strategies include expanding domestic demand, strengthening the domestic circulation, and improving supply-demand relationships to promote reasonable price recovery and enhance business operations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November showed a month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month, indicating a trend of narrowing year-on-year decline since August, with positive changes observed in recent PPI data [1][2] Group 1: PPI Trends - In November, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, driven by seasonal demand for winter energy and heating, improved market competition, and rising international non-ferrous metal prices [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a high base effect from the same period last year [1] Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Recovery - Consumer upgrades are increasingly evident, with rising demand for high-quality living leading to price increases in sectors such as sports and cultural goods. In November, the price of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose by 20.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; the price of sports balls manufacturing rose by 4.3%, up by 1 percentage point [1] - Emerging industries are experiencing positive development, with accelerated smart and green transformation leading to increased demand for raw materials and finished products. In November, prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry rose by 7.8% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month; graphite and carbon product manufacturing prices rose by 3.8%; integrated circuit manufacturing prices rose by 1.7% [2] - The effects of regulating market competition are becoming evident, with prices in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing showing a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Overall, the PPI has shown a month-on-month increase for two consecutive months, with positive factors supporting reasonable price recovery continuing to accumulate. However, the year-on-year PPI remains in decline, indicating that further efforts are needed to solidify the foundation for price recovery [2]

（文章来源：第一财经） 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在发布会上表示，11月份PPI环比上涨0.1%，主要是由于冬季用能、防寒 保暖等季节性需求增加，规范市场竞争秩序以及国际有色金属价格上行传导影响。从同比来看，PPI同 比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要是上年同期基数走高的影响。从PPI变化来看，促进价 格合理回升的积极因素仍在累积。总的来看，PPI连续2个月环比上涨，支持价格合理回升的积极因素继 续累积。当然也要看到，PPI同比还在下降，夯实价格合理回升的基础仍需加力。下阶段，要继续扩大 国内需求，做强国内大循环，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，加强重点行业产能治理，改善供求关系， 推动价格合理回升，改善企业经营。 ...