市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 中国11月PPI同比 -2.2%，前值 -2.1%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，PPI同比下降2.2%。 ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Labor Department will release October & November PPI data together in January 2026, despite reports claiming it would not be published. ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing volatility due to a policy vacuum, with expectations for a positive policy direction emerging from upcoming meetings in December [1][2]. Macro and Policy - Economic fundamentals have shown relative weakness in the second half of the year, yet risk assets have outperformed safe-haven assets, indicating that asset pricing is driven more by long-term expectations than short-term economic performance [2]. - Optimism regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the anticipated policy strength for 2026 is fueling this positive outlook [2]. - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are critical for setting the policy tone for 2026 and could serve as a turning point for major asset classes [2]. Overseas Factors - The U.S. labor market remains under pressure, necessitating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, although the long-term impact of the labor market on monetary policy is diminishing [3]. - China's international competitiveness in exports has improved, and the country has mitigated some negative impacts from tariffs through re-export trade, suggesting a better-than-expected foreign trade outlook [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Following the December meetings, major assets are expected to transition from a state of ambiguity to clearer trends, marking a pivotal moment for asset allocation [4]. - Bond yields are reasonable but lack attractiveness, while stock market valuations have slightly declined, maintaining a high-risk appetite in the market [4]. - There is optimism regarding fiscal policy strength, which may enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [4]. - In terms of bond investments, a focus on medium- to short-term bonds is recommended due to a generally accommodative monetary policy, despite market sentiment being fragile [4]. - For commodities, attention should be given to non-ferrous metals, which are expected to show a clear contraction trend in supply [4].

Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open at 24:00 on December 8, following the "ten working days" principle. The last adjustment on November 24 saw domestic gasoline and diesel prices decrease by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively [1] CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI and PPI data for November on December 10. Huachuang Securities predicts that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will rebound from 0.2% last month to around 0.7%, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices. The food price index in November is expected to rise by 1.1% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 2.7% in the same month last year, which was the lowest in the past decade [2] Financial Data Release - In addition to CPI and PPI, financial data for November, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is also expected to be released next week. Zhejiang Merchants Securities estimates that new RMB loans will increase by 300 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%. Social financing is expected to increase by 2.2 trillion yuan, down approximately 342 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%. M2 growth is projected at 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is expected to be 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next week. As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13%. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January, a 9% chance of maintaining the rate, and a 27% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4] Stock Unlocking - Next week, 40 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of nearly 40 billion yuan based on Friday's closing prices. Ten companies have lock-up shares valued at over 1 billion yuan each, including Ningbo Ocean, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [5] New Stock Opportunities - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, including one from the Shanghai main board, one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, one from the Shenzhen main board, and two from the Growth Enterprise Market. The specific issuance dates are December 8 for Youxun Co. and Nabichuan, December 9 for Yuanchuang Co., and December 12 for Xihua Technology and Tiansu Measurement [8]

Group 1: Oil Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil is set for December 8, with a projected decrease of 60 CNY per ton for gasoline and diesel due to a -1.26% change in the average price of crude oil [2] - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and stalled peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have weakened the outlook for Russian oil exports [2] - Despite OPEC+ agreeing to increase production in November, actual output has declined due to some member countries' production halts, leading to a supply shortfall [2] Group 2: CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release November CPI and PPI data on December 10, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth rate increase from 0.2% to around 0.7% [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to fluctuations in food prices, particularly due to adverse weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3] - Predictions indicate that the CPI's tail effect for next year will be approximately 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3] Group 3: Financial Data Release - November financial data, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is expected to be released next week, with new loans projected at 300 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion CNY [4] - Social financing is anticipated to increase by 2.2 trillion CNY, down by approximately 342 billion CNY year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.4% [4] - M2 growth is expected to be 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is projected at 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a meeting next week, with an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [5] - Economic indicators suggest a cooling labor market, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [5] - Projections for 2026 indicate potential economic growth of 2% to 2.5%, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate cut trajectory [6] Group 5: New Stock Issuance - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, raising approximately 4.297 billion CNY, with a total of 184 million shares [7] - Companies involved include Youxun Co., focusing on optical communication chips, and Nabachuan, specializing in thermal management for electric vehicle batteries [7] - Other companies include Yuanchuang, a major player in rubber tracks, and Xihua Technology, which manufactures specialized components for high-end equipment [7]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 11 月，基数及政策前倾影响下，预计社融与 M2 增速回落，固投、地产同比或依然偏低，社零受补贴 类商品增速回落影响或依然偏弱。相对而言，预计出口与生产韧性较强。需要特别提示的是， CPI 或继续 上行，这或将营造良好的物价回升的氛围。 预计 CPI 同比从 0.2% 回升至 0.7% 左右。首先 ，本月 CPI 同比读数大幅回升，主因是食品价格扰动。去 年 11 月食品项环比为 -2.7% ，是过去十年最低；今年 11 月环比预计为 1.1% 。 其次，食品价格的波动 主要源于天气影响下的菜价 ，今年 10 月中下旬以后气温偏低、秋雨增多，局部地区遭受低温冷冻灾害或 暴雨洪涝灾害，导致部分蔬菜市场供应偏紧。这一情况并不具备持续性，据国家气候中心预测，今年冬季 我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，天气条件总体上有利于蔬菜生长和运输。 最后，最近两个月食品 价格偏高有利于提升明年 CPI 同比中枢。 今年 10-11 月份食品环比强于季节性，叠加今年二三季度 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral to positive investment rating for the bond market. It suggests that investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year, and is optimistic about the bond market's performance in the medium term. [4][37] 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing demand drives production recovery, with the November manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.20%, but still below the boom - bust line. The new order index and production index have both increased. The improvement in the foreign trade environment due to Sino - US economic and trade consultations has led to an overall recovery in demand, which in turn has accelerated production. [2][13] - The improvement in the international trade environment has led to a recovery in external demand, driving a phased repair of demand. The new export order index and import index have both increased in November, and the BDI index has increased by 31.28%. However, there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [2][23] - The manufacturing price end continues to show positive changes. The raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased, which may promote the repair of the manufacturing production end. [3][27] - Non - manufacturing business has slowed down. The service industry PMI has declined due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday, and the construction industry is still in the contraction range, but infrastructure - related activities continue to grow. [3][34] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Manufacturing Production Shows Slight Repair - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The new order index rose 0.40 percentage points to 49.20%, and the production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.00%. [13] - Among different manufacturing industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remains in the expansion range, while the PMI of equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries has fallen into the contraction range, and the PMI of basic raw material industries has increased. [13] 3.2 External Environment Drives Demand Recovery - In November, the new export order index was 47.60%, up 1.70 percentage points from the previous value, and the import index was 47.00%, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous value. The BDI index increased by 31.28% in November, indicating an improvement in the external trade environment. [23] - The short - term external environment is easing, but there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [23] 3.3 Positive Changes in the Price End Continue - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index has increased. The difference between the two has widened by 0.4 percentage points to 5.40pct. [27] - The raw material purchase price index in November was 53.60%, better than the average of the past five years. The procurement volume index has increased slightly, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased. [27] - The economic kinetic energy index in November was 1.90pct, up 1.20 percentage points. The positive recovery in prices may reflect the policy effect of rectifying "involution - style" competition, and the PPI data in November may also show a reaction. [27][29] 3.4 Attention Should Be Paid to Corporate Business Vitality - In November, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.30%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value, while the PMI of medium - sized and small enterprises increased by 0.20 and 2.00 percentage points respectively. [32] - The recovery of external demand helps to improve the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises, but the prosperity of large enterprises is the guarantee of the overall business vitality of domestic enterprises and needs continuous attention. [32] 3.5 Non - manufacturing Prosperity Declines - In November, the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous value due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday. [34] - After the concentrated release of consumer demand during the National Day Golden Week, the business activity indexes of consumer - related service industries have declined to varying degrees, but the business activity index and new order index of the financial industry have increased significantly. [34] - The construction industry is still in the contraction range, with the business activity index at 49.60%, up 0.50 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure - related activities continue to grow, and investment is expected to strengthen at the end of the year. [35] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - The PMI data has a neutral to positive impact on the bond market. As the market sentiment adjusts, investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year. In the short term, attention should be paid to policy expectations such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to perform well. [4][37]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis by Li Xunlei highlights potential investment opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and significant upcoming anniversaries, including the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party in 2026, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army in 2027, and the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 2029 [1][48]. Group 1: Highlights of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The first highlight is the acceleration of technological self-reliance, with a focus on changing investment directions and targets in the manufacturing sector [41][22]. - The second highlight emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the need to enhance consumption, particularly aligning with the preferences of the younger generation [42][66]. - The third highlight involves the establishment of a unified national market, aimed at removing policy and institutional barriers to facilitate resource flow and market efficiency [43][73]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, with a general budget deficit rate of approximately 4.5% and a broad fiscal deficit expected to rise from 8.4% this year to 9% [45][79]. - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain proactive, while monetary policy may have limited space due to the need for stability in the banking sector's net interest margin [80][81]. - The potential for structural investment opportunities is highlighted, particularly in high-tech sectors and the ongoing development of AI, which is viewed as having significant growth potential rather than being a bubble [86][85].

Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].