Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

马来西亚制造商联合会：敦促政府干预以应对美国关税，已受到之前10%关税的影响。 ...

日本自民党政调会长小野寺五典在周二的党会议上就美国总统特朗普宣布将向日本征收25%关税一事谴责称：“该内容无法接受。凭一封信就发出通知是对同盟国家而言非常失礼的行为，感到强烈愤慨。”外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):日本首相石破茂：经过与美国的谈判，我们成功避免了关税升至30%至35%的情况。美国已提议继续进行会谈，直至新的8月1日截止日期。到目前为止，我们无法就协议达成一致，因为我们与美国进行了艰难的谈判，日本不应该轻易让步。 ...

Group 1 - The market is overly optimistic about the economic outlook, ignoring the negative impacts of unprecedented high tariffs, particularly on small businesses and inflation [1] - Multiple factors, including tariffs, a weak dollar, and potential demand slowdown, are impacting the inflation outlook, with tariffs expected to drive inflation higher in the second half of the year [1] - The labor market's ability to buffer against economic recession is weaker than in any period post-pandemic, with fewer job vacancies per unemployed person compared to 2021-2022 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal policy is creating a tug-of-war effect on economic growth, with both tariffs and fiscal measures raising inflation risks [2] - Inflation-protected assets, such as TIPS, appear relatively cheap, and could benefit if market sentiment shifts towards inflation concerns [2] - The Federal Reserve's economic forecast suggests a median expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut this year, but inflation pressures may lead to fewer cuts than anticipated [2]

印尼部长将与美国官员会晤讨论关税问题。 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 film box office (including pre-sales) surpassed 30 billion yuan as of July 8, 2023, 11:38 AM, achieving this milestone 28 days earlier than last year after 189 days [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's CEO announced several measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect program, including expanding the range of participating institutions for southbound trading and allowing the re-pledging of bonds during the repurchase period [2] - A coalition of 33 construction companies issued a "anti-involution" initiative to promote industry transformation and eliminate "involution-style" competition [3] Group 2 - On July 7, former President Trump indicated at a White House dinner that the deadline for tariff discussions is set for August 1, but he remains open to alternative proposals from other countries [4] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.25%. The Hang Seng Index gained 0.78%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.29% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing mixed trends, with gold prices showing volatility and silver prices slightly increasing amid ongoing tariff disturbances, which are gradually weakening compared to previous levels [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - President Trump announced new tariffs on several countries, including Japan and South Korea, effective August 1, with tariffs on imports from these countries set at 25% [2]. - Tariffs on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand will range from 25% to 40%, with an additional 10% for countries aligning with anti-American policies of BRICS nations [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, reaching a high of 97.65 during the day, closing at 97.51, influenced by the tariff announcements [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Spot gold initially fell below the $3300 mark but rebounded strongly, closing at $3336.35 per ounce, marking a slight increase of 0.04% [2]. - Spot silver closed at $36.74 per ounce, down 0.48% for the day [2]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a bullish trend with support levels at $3305, $3296, and $3279, while resistance levels are at $3330, $3345, and $3365 [3]. - Silver is also showing a bullish trend with support at $36.3 and $36.1, and resistance at $36.7 and $36.9 [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Market participants are awaiting the release of the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June, which may influence precious metals [1].

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently stabilizing above the $3,330 mark, following a fluctuation where prices initially fell and then rose due to increased safe-haven demand triggered by U.S. tariffs on Japan and South Korea [1] - The U.S. is set to impose higher tariffs on multiple countries, with Japan, South Korea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Tunisia facing a 25% tariff rate, effective August 1 [2] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with current resistance levels at $3,350, $3,360, and $3,380, while support levels are at $3,300, $3,280, and $3,260 [3] Group 2 - The short-term trend for gold is likely to remain weak, with the price facing pressure around the $3,340 level, suggesting potential adjustments in the near term [3] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the strong U.S. dollar, which is limiting the extent of gold price rebounds despite rising geopolitical tensions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [7][10][12][14][15]. Core Viewpoints - The black spot market has been mediocre recently, with capital issues not significantly alleviated and weak terminal demand making it difficult for spot prices to rise. The futures market is more driven by expectations, and with the improving domestic and international macro - environment, the overall commodity valuation has increased. The furnace materials with relatively more certain demand perform better than finished products. After the price spike, it is advisable to wait and see for the next two weeks to observe the sustainability of steel demand [1]. - The "anti - involution" - related production cut expectations' positive impact has temporarily ended. The price increase has affected the export orders of finished products, and the spot price increase is weak. The black futures prices have slightly corrected. The industrial fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the degree of demand weakening [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: On July 4, 2025, Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils, and the US President will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. High prices have limited downstream purchasing willingness. After the rainy season, the supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and the inventory has continued to decline; the supply of hot - rolled coils has increased while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory change is limited [7]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel are not prominent, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariff disturbances are continuous. After the steel price increase, the steel export pressure shows signs of marginal weakening. It is expected that the short - term steel price will oscillate [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: This week, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter production rush, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but is lower than expected. The steel enterprises' iron water output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, the port inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Outlook: The iron ore demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions are not obvious. After this round of increase, the futures price has reached an important pressure level. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short - term [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand has also declined. The long - and short - process total daily consumption of scrap steel has decreased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased [8]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and it is expected that the price will oscillate after the macro - environment cools down [8]. Coke - Core Logic: The supply and demand of coke have both declined. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, while a small number have reduced production due to profit pressure. The steel mills' iron water output has decreased, but the demand for coke remains strong [10]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a price increase in the coke market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the iron water output and coal mine resumption [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Two coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the overall supply is gradually recovering. The Mongolian coal port transactions are active, but the port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. The short - term demand for coking coal remains, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the expectation of coal mine resumption [10]. - Outlook: The coal mine supply is expected to recover, but the short - term demand remains strong. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate [10]. Glass - Core Logic: In the off - season, the demand for glass has decreased, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, and the futures price has rebounded due to the expected production cuts. In the short - term, the positive feedback may be strong, but in the long - term, it still needs market - based capacity reduction. It is expected that the price will oscillate [12]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply capacity of soda ash has not been cleared, and the supply pressure remains. The heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand, while the light - soda ash demand is weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [12]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the price center will decline in the long - term [12]. Ferromanganese - Core Logic: The price of manganese ore has slightly decreased. The supply of ferromanganese has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand is expected to decline slightly as the steel production may decrease in the off - season [14]. - Outlook: The cost push is insufficient, and the supply - demand relationship of ferromanganese is becoming looser. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost of ferrosilicon is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand from the steel and metal magnesium industries has uncertainties. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but the future supply - demand gap may be filled [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, but the price increase driving force is insufficient. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [15].

摩根士丹利经济学家称，美国的贸易谈判正朝著战术性升级的方向发展。该行报告称，如果特朗普政府 在致贸易伙伴的信函中提出的最新关税生效，亚洲的加权平均关税将升至27%。然而，特朗普已表示， 美国即将与印度达成协议。 ...