" ' 首次购买 + 换代激活 ' ，开启县域经济下一个双重战略窗口。如今的下沉市场，正发生着更多的首次购买；与此同时， 57% 的下沉市场用户家电换新周期超过 3 年，换 新动力不强。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2026开篇，消费市场的"开门红"怎么样了？ 元旦假期3天，据文旅部测算，全国国内旅游收入847.89亿元，恢复至2019年同期的112.3%；国内旅游人次达1.35亿，恢复至115.1%。 海南"封关"后迎来消费热潮，实现旅游总收入32.8亿元，同比增长28.9%；离岛免税商品购物金额7.12亿元，同比增长128.9%。 新一轮国补开启，智能眼镜纳入国补范围，家电补贴聚焦高能效产品。商务部数据显示，智能健康设备、智能穿戴设备销售额分别增长20%和15% 以上。京东平台上，节能家电销量同比增长38%。 家电家居厂商以"国 补"吸引市民选购 低线城市游客接待量增速领先。华泰证券数据显示，荆州、怀化、十堰、长春、赣州、喀什等地游客接待量同比增幅超30%，远高于一线及新一线 城市。 字里行间，都在传递着新一年消费的热闹景象。 热闹之下，也有理性。元旦假期，全国国内人均出游花费约628元， ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinecone Wisdom Inc. (松果出行) has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for regional expansion, R&D, commercialization of electric bike sales, overseas exploration, and general operational funding [1] Company Overview - Established in 2017, Pinecone Wisdom Inc. is a leading shared electric bike service provider in China, having received investments from notable institutions such as Innovation Works, Qiming Venture Partners, SoftBank, Nokia Investment Fund, and Sequoia China [1] - The company operates a complete value chain from electric bike design and production to operational management, making it the largest shared electric bike operator in China's peripheral development areas and the fourth largest in the overall market [1] Market Position and Growth - As of September 30, 2025, Pinecone Wisdom has deployed 454,627 shared electric bikes across 422 cities and counties in China, with registered users increasing from 99 million at the end of 2023 to 128 million by September 30, 2025 [1] - The shared electric bike service market in China is projected to grow significantly, with the number of electric bikes increasing from 1.2 million in 2019 to 7.1 million in 2024, and the market transaction value rising from 2.2 billion yuan to 16.6 billion yuan during the same period, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 49.7% [3] Financial Performance - In 2023 and 2024, Pinecone Wisdom's revenue was 953 million yuan and 963 million yuan, respectively, with gross margin improving from 15.8% to 18.9%. The net loss decreased from 192 million yuan to 151 million yuan, with adjusted net losses of 80 million yuan and 44 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 746 million yuan, a gross margin of 24.3%, and a reduced net loss of 60 million yuan, achieving an adjusted net profit of approximately 26 million yuan [2] Industry Challenges - The company faces challenges such as asset turnover efficiency and operational cost pressures due to its heavy asset operation model. Its reliance on local government partnerships creates regional barriers but also heightens dependence on policy environments, which may restrict future expansion [2] - As an independent operator in a competitive market, Pinecone Wisdom's single business model lacks the ecosystem support that larger platforms like Meituan and Didi possess, posing significant challenges in terms of profitability as competition intensifies [3][4]

南财智讯12月31日电，孩子王发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 27500万元—33000万元，同比预增51.72%—82.06%；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经 常性损益的净利润为20500万元—25000万元，同比预增71.12%—108.68%，2025年，公司紧扣"三扩"战 略（即扩品类、扩赛道、扩业态）核心方向，聚焦年度"复购、加盟、同城数字化"三大必赢之战，统筹 推进各项业务实现突破性进展：1、持续推进门店迭代升级与供应链优化，聚力打造首发经济，现已全 面构建起涵盖自营大店、全龄段儿童生活馆、Ultra店、加盟精选店、优选店在内的多层级、多场景门 店矩阵；同步加快"短链+自营"供应链体系建设，大力推行自有品牌战略，持续强化单客经营与精细化 运营，全面推进AI智能化升级，推进公司核心业务保持稳步增长。2、精准把握下沉市场结构性发展机 遇，充分发挥公司在品牌、大店场景、供应链、数字化、专业服务等方面的综合优势，以加盟模式为核 心抓手加快市场渗透，截至2025年9月30日，已有110家加盟精选店开业，在建及筹建数量近130家，实 现渠道版图持续扩容，推动下 ...

估值较低的商超区域龙头，基本面有望进入加速期 ——新华百货三季报点评与首次覆盖 一般零售 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 225.63 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 225.63 | | 市价(元) | 13.75 | | 市值(百万元) | 3,102.43 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 3,102.43 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 新华百货（600785.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 执业证书编号：S0740523060001 Email：zhangji01@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | | 增持（首次） 评级： | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） ...

Group 1: Macro Retail and Service Consumption - Retail data shows that essential goods maintain resilience while optional goods exhibit differentiated performance, with social retail growth slightly slowing down due to high base effects from government subsidies [10][16] - Service retail continues to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% from January to November 2025, outpacing overall social retail growth [10][18] - Travel demand is steadily releasing, with domestic tourism numbers reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [18][20] Group 2: E-commerce Sector - E-commerce maintains a steady growth rate, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the overall social retail growth [13][25] - The penetration rate of e-commerce continues to rise, reaching 25.9% of total social retail sales by November 2025, an increase of 3.6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [13][25] - The competitive landscape in e-commerce is easing, with platforms like Taobao and JD.com focusing on maintaining stable growth rather than aggressive price competition [28][36] Group 3: Retail Focus on Downstream Markets - The focus is on the resilience of consumption in lower-tier markets, with recommendations for bulk snack retailers and the "锅圈" brand, which excels in the home dining sector [5][31] - The bulk snack market is characterized by low prices and high turnover, effectively meeting consumer demand for snacks [5][31] - "锅圈" is positioned as a leader in the home dining market, leveraging its multi-channel advantages and strong supply chain [5][31] Group 4: Service Sector Recovery - The hotel industry is stabilizing with a recovery in demand, and recommendations include Huazhu Group and Atour Hotel [5][31] - The OTA sector is experiencing stronger leisure demand compared to business travel, with international business continuing to grow rapidly [5][31] - Policies aimed at boosting service consumption are expected to further stimulate demand in the travel and hospitality sectors [23][24] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Didi Chuxing for their strong fundamentals and low valuations [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the e-commerce and service sectors, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [5][23]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant presence of milk tea brands in lower-tier markets, with a notable absence of high-end tea brands like Nayuki and Heytea in these areas [2][3] - Nayuki has faced challenges in penetrating the lower-tier market and has decided to shut down its sub-brand Taigai due to lack of profitability [4][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The lower-tier market has seen a surge in milk tea brands such as Mixue, Gu Ming, and Cha Bai Dao, while high-end brands like Nayuki and Heytea are rarely mentioned [2][3] - Nayuki's attempts to enter the lower-tier market through sub-brands have not been successful, leading to a focus on its main brand [4][7] Group 2: Nayuki's Strategy - Nayuki announced the closure of its Taigai sub-brand, which had only 7 operational stores left, indicating a drastic decline from its peak of over 800 stores [5][19] - The company has previously closed another sub-brand, Pear Mountain, which targeted price-sensitive consumers, indicating a pattern of struggling with lower-tier market strategies [5][7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Nayuki's market presence is significantly lower than that of Heytea, which has 3,326 stores compared to Nayuki's 1,505 [9][11] - The differences in brand strategy and market approach between Nayuki and Heytea are evident, with Heytea focusing on product innovation and collaborations to maintain consumer interest [11][12] Group 4: Challenges in Lower-Tier Markets - High-end tea brands face challenges in lower-tier markets due to higher price points and complex supply chains, making it difficult to attract price-sensitive consumers [18][19] - Nayuki's high franchise fees and operational requirements create barriers for expansion into lower-tier markets, limiting its growth potential [19][20]

Core Insights - The rapid development of tea beverage brands in county-level markets reflects a significant shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics, with major brands like Starbucks and Heytea expanding into these areas [4][19] - The tea beverage industry experienced a surge in demand during the recent Spring Festival, with a notable increase in delivery orders from county markets, indicating a robust growth potential in these previously underserved regions [6][5] Market Trends - The number of new chain tea beverage stores in county areas exceeded 9,000 in 2022, with an overall opening rate of approximately 36%, showcasing the rapid expansion of this market segment [10] - Major tea brands have reported a 65% year-on-year increase in delivery orders during the Spring Festival period, highlighting the growing consumer base and demand in county markets [6] Consumer Behavior - Consumers in county areas are increasingly seeking diverse beverage options, with a shift from traditional offerings to modern tea drinks, reflecting changing tastes and preferences among younger demographics [5][19] - The average price of a tea beverage ranges from 10 to 20 yuan, making it accessible to a broad consumer base while still generating significant daily revenue for stores [11] Business Strategies - Brands are focusing on improving order fulfillment speed and operational efficiency to capitalize on peak demand periods, with some stores achieving beverage preparation times of around one minute [8][9] - The expansion strategy includes targeting lower-rent locations outside of prime commercial areas, allowing for cost savings while still reaching a wide customer base through delivery services [16][18] Competitive Landscape - The tea beverage market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many brands facing challenges related to product homogeneity and market saturation, prompting a focus on differentiation and innovation [11][12] - The rise of online marketing and delivery platforms has become crucial for brand visibility and sales, particularly in county markets where traditional foot traffic may be lower [18][23]

其中，沈阳首店单月营业额突破1000万元，各种庆功海报照片开始在行业流传。 与之相比，早已教育过中国市场的必胜客，一家成熟门店的周营业额为10~15万，月均营业额在40万元左右。 在当下的餐饮行业，平均每分钟关6家门店的「闭店潮」正在上演，达美乐却是一个「逆势开店」的特殊存在。 今年10月1日，达美乐徐州首店，开业当天日营业额68万元，刷新达美乐全球单店的日销售纪录；而同样在今年，达美乐在邯郸、沈阳等地，分别创下了 首店首日54万元、首店首日52万元营业额记录。 达美乐一张三十多块钱的披萨，让几百号人一边排着几小时的长队一边兴奋地拍着抖音「炫耀」。其他人看呆了：「达美乐真有那么好吃吗」、「像没吃 过披萨似的」…… 截至今年三季度，达美乐在中国大陆的直营门店数量已达1283家（必胜客为4022家），覆盖51个城市，门店网络持续向非一线城市下沉。 尽管早早就进入了中国，但达美乐在2024年才第一次挣到钱，当年净利润0.55亿元，扭亏为盈。2025上半年，达美乐中国实现净利润9142万元（调整 后）。而此前的2019到2023年，达美乐中国累计亏损11.77亿。 逆势增长的达美乐，做对了什么？ 01 必胜客眼中"唯 ...

国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显 向远程航线倾斜有关。 2025.12.25 本文字数：1955，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经陈姗姗 中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺 丁不旺财"。 国际航线开拓的提速，也令国内航司的市场份额碾压外航。据航班管家数据，国内航司的市场份额已从2019年的58.9%攀升至2025年的69.5%，而国外航 司的份额则萎缩至30.5%。在航班恢复上的差异更为悬殊，2025年国内航司的国际航班量已恢复至2019年的103.6%，国外航司仅为65.3%。这标志着后疫 情时代的国际航线市场，已形成由国内航司主导恢复，而国外航司参与度降低的新格局。 全球航空数据、估值与咨询机构IBA航空集团在近日举办的行业峰会上就提到，中国 ...

作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 中国民航预计完成旅客运输7.7亿人次，同比2024年增长5.4%，同比2019年增长16.6%，旅客运 输创历年新高。 这是航班管家对2025年民航业表现作出的最新预测，预测报告同时显示，全年经济舱平均票价740 元，同比下滑2.9%，意味着中国民航在2025年依然"旺丁不旺财"。 国际航线开拓提速 在7.7亿人次的民航旅客中，国内航线贡献6.9亿人次，国际航线贡献0.8亿人次。这其中，国际旅客 同比2024年的增幅更高，这与中国民航的运力扩张明显向远程航线倾斜有关。 2025.12. 25 本文字数：1955，阅读时长大约4分钟 如何摆脱增收不增利 尽管如此，中国航司截至今年第三季度的息税前利润率（EBIT）维持在3–4%区间，仍低于亚太及 全球平均水平。对此，IBA认为源于国内市场受竞争激烈及历史高运力水平影响，盈利修复相对缓 慢。 国际航协最近发布的预测也显示，相比其他区域，亚太航司运送每位旅客的收益只有3.2美元（约合 23元人民币），是所有地区中赚得最少的。这与亚太地区的运力过剩不无关系。比如在中国，国内 市场的"内卷"给航司收益带来了持续的压力，即使是有低票价优势的春秋 ...