周三（12月17日）晚，特朗普总统发表了时长约20分钟的年终演讲。这一举措较为罕见，因其第一任期内从未有过类似的年终总结讲话。 演讲中，他回顾了过去一年的执政举措，释放多项民生福利相关承诺，并提及前任政府时期的经济状况，展现出明确的政策立场。 图源：WT.com 主流媒体也对演讲中的部分表述进行了事实核查。 下文将梳理演讲的核心要点，呈现相关事实与各方立场。 经济承诺密集 经济问题是此次演讲的核心议题。特朗普在演讲中提及前任政府遗留的经济挑战，称"11个月前，我继承了一个烂摊子，现在我在修复它"，暗示拜登时期 经济状况不佳，并强调自身执政后美国经济已得到显著改善。 围绕经济发展，特朗普提出了一系列承诺： 对于这些经济相关表述，有媒体分析与数据给出了不同视角。 《纽约时报》的分析显示，近几个月特朗普在经济问题上的支持率有所下滑；政府公开数据则显示，当前美国通胀率仍接近3%，与拜登执政时期的水平 基本持平。 值得一提的是，关于退税的承诺确实有实打实的政策支撑，但"史上最大规模减税"的说法明显言过其实。 明年美国经济将持续增长，电力等商品价格大幅下降； 抵押贷款利率进一步降低，还将推出"美国历史上最激进的住房改革计 ...

"从统计角度看,赢得中期选举是很困难的事情。"美国总统特朗普在《华尔街日报》13日刊出的专访中 作出上述表态。近期美国多场地方选举结果,也印证了特朗普这种担忧。12月9日,民主党人艾琳.希金斯 以压倒性优势当选佛罗里达州迈阿密市长,该市时隔28年再次迎来民主党籍市长。此前,民主党人在11月 举行的纽约市长选举、新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州州长选举中大获全胜。 主笔王晓莹 政治风向正在发生变化 希金斯敏锐地察觉到迈阿密当地民众对特朗普政府的态度变化。在迈阿密-戴德县,拉丁裔和西班牙裔人 口约占总人口的70%。去年美国总统选举中,特朗普在该县的得票率领先,反映出当地拉丁裔在倒向共和 党。但从这次迈阿密市长选举和近期民调来看,当地拉丁裔对特朗普政府的支持率有所下降。正如佛罗 里达州民主党主席妮基.弗里德所说,这场胜利"显示出摆锤正朝对我们有利的方向摆动"。 民主党注入了"强心剂" 创造历史的迈阿密市长选举并非个例。在上个月举行的弗吉尼亚州长、新泽西州长和纽约市长选举中, 民主党大获全胜并创造多个"第一",显示出民主党的选情已开始触底反弹。 最引人瞩目的是11月4日当选纽约市长的祖赫兰.马姆达尼,这个出生在乌干达一个印度裔家 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 新增长线索弥补金融条件 宏观周度述评系列（2025.12.15-12.21） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520110001 | | | 010-59136677 | | | zhon ...

当被问及自己对医保问题的处理方式是否会导致共和党在中期选举中丢失席位时，众议院议长约翰逊给 出了 "绝不可能" 的答复。 在被问及是否担心摇摆选区的共和党议员面临席位流失风险时，他明确表示："绝不可能。" 针对自己决定不推迟休会、而是将《平价医疗法案》强化补贴延期表决一事留到明年 1 月复会后处理的 做法，约翰逊也进行了辩护。 "要推进此事，就必须走完相关程序并加快进度。所有人都清楚这些规则，也一直都心知肚明，他们是 自己做出了相应的决定。" 在被问及取消休会的相关问题时，约翰逊翻了个白眼说道。 "他们在玩政治把戏。" 约翰逊在谈及民主党时补充道，"我们则在解决实际问题。明年年初，大家会看 到这一点，同时我们还会继续推进民生减负议程。唯有共和党拿出了切实可行的解决方案。" 众议院共和党人以微弱优势通过了一项一揽子议案。该议案允许小企业及自雇人士跨行业联合起来，通 过 "协会健康计划" 购买医疗保险，以此降低保费。此外，议案将再次为 "费用分摊补贴" 提供联邦资金 支持，低收入的奥巴马医改参保者可凭借该项补贴降低自付免赔额与医疗费用。 众议院共和党人还提出要求，作为制药商与保险公司或雇主之间中间商的药品福利管理 ...

据法新社12月16日报道，在选民表达对经济日益强烈不满之际，美国总统特朗普将于17日就自己再度执 政以来的"伟大一年"发表全国电视讲话。 预计特朗普还将谈到2026年的一些政策。随着选民对生活成本日益高涨的不满加剧，共和党人对中期选 举的前景感到紧张。 预计特朗普还将谈到2026年的一些政策。随着选民对生活成本日益高涨的不满加剧，共和党人对中期选 举的前景感到紧张。 转自：宁波晚报 特朗普16日在他的"真实社交"网站上发文道："我的美国同胞：我即将从白宫发表现场直播的全国电视 讲话。我期待届时能'见到'你们。对我们国家来说，这是伟大的一年，而更好的还在后头！" 据法新社12月16日报道，在选民表达对经济日益强烈不满之际，美国总统特朗普将于17日就自己再度执 政以来的"伟大一年"发表全国电视讲话。 转自：宁波晚报 特朗普16日在他的"真实社交"网站上发文道："我的美国同胞：我即将从白宫发表现场直播的全国电视 讲话。我期待届时能'见到'你们。对我们国家来说，这是伟大的一年，而更好的还在后头！" ...

12月17日，曾经公开叫板美国总统特朗普、宣布组建第三党的企业家马斯克，再度使出"钞能力"，将在 2026年中期选举资助共和党。 责任编辑：栎树 美国Axios新闻网16日援引知情人士报道称，马斯克已在2026年中期选举前夕重启对共和党的竞选资 助，"坚定地重回共和党阵营"。这一动作表明，自今年早些时候他与特朗普闹僵后，两人的关系已出现 缓和。 消息人士透露，这位亿万富翁近期捐赠了巨额资金，助力共和党赢得明年的国会选举，并表示 他将在整个2026年选举周期内持续投入资金。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 15,292, with an opening price of 14,690 and a current price of 15,428, reflecting a 4.48% increase. The highest price reached was 15,477, while the lowest was 14,619, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The Shanghai silver market shows strong upward momentum, with Bollinger Bands indicating a weakening of this momentum, yet remaining within an upward trajectory. The premium for Shanghai silver is maintained at 340 yuan per kilogram, with high silver prices expected to continue oscillating. The main contract for Shanghai silver is projected to operate within the range of 14,200 to 15,000 [4] Group 2 - Trump is scheduled to deliver a significant address on Wednesday evening, coinciding with a critical moment as his first year back in the White House approaches its end, amid declining public support and economic challenges [2] - The address will provide Trump with a platform to highlight his achievements and outline priorities for the upcoming year, especially as the Republican Party aims to maintain control of Congress in the midterm elections next November [2]

Core Points - President Trump is set to deliver a crucial speech to the nation amid declining approval ratings and economic challenges, aiming to outline his policy agenda and achievements [1] - Recent polls indicate a nearly 10 percentage point drop in public approval regarding Trump's handling of economic and immigration issues since March [1][3] - The upcoming midterm elections will serve as a test of Trump's political influence and the Republican Party's ability to maintain control of Congress [1] Economic Challenges - Economic issues have emerged as a primary challenge for Trump, with concerns over wage growth slowing and rising household costs becoming central to voter concerns [2][3] - Political opponents are criticizing Trump's tariff policies, attributing rising consumer prices and inflation to these measures [3] - Trump has initiated a domestic campaign to address economic pressures, including policies aimed at reducing costs and providing assistance to farmers affected by low agricultural prices and tariffs [3] Policy and Governance - Since returning to the White House, Trump has focused on reshaping the U.S. economic and national security landscape through tariffs on trade partners and key industries [4] - His administration has tested the boundaries of executive power by reducing the federal workforce and cutting funding for programs criticized by conservatives [4] - Trump is also working to fulfill campaign promises related to immigration, including large-scale deportations and tightening legal entry pathways [4]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场年度报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 海外市场年度报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 先抑后扬 2026 年海外市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2026 年美国的经济可能会以中期选举和货币政策为主线，呈现先抑后扬的节奏。 中期选举：博弈加剧，内政为先。美国两党博弈仍在加剧，特朗普能否继续横扫面 临较大不确定性。1938 年以来，总统所在政党在 22 次选举中有 20 次都在众议院 选举中失利，唯二的两次例外都源于特殊情况。从中期选举的角度来看，2026 年 特朗普的政策倾向性有四方面：1）继续给大型科技企业提供税收优惠等方面的支 持。2）可能会针对中小企业和低收入人群进行一定支持，以平衡社会分化的问题。 3）加大力度推动"制造业回流"，但必要性并不高。4）关税政策预计会持续，但 整体力度会降低。整体的思路是在《大美丽法案》的基础 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economic outlook for 2026, focusing on tax policies, inflation, employment, and the impact of the AI sector on the market [1][4][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Legality and Impact**: The legality of Trump's IEP tariffs is under challenge, with a market expectation of over 70% probability that they will be deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. This could significantly affect stock trading strategies [1][3]. - **Economic Growth from the Inflation Reduction Act**: The Inflation Reduction Act is expected to boost GDP growth by approximately 0.4 percentage points in 2026 through tax cuts, despite potential declines in social welfare programs [1][5]. - **Midterm Elections Influence**: The Trump administration may implement measures to stabilize the stock market and avoid actions that could harm it, as the midterm elections approach. This includes potential reductions in tariffs on consumer goods and food [1][6]. - **Deficit Projections**: The U.S. deficit rate is projected to decrease to about 5.9% in 2025 due to spending cuts and increased tariff revenues, but is expected to rebound to approximately 6.2% in 2026 due to fiscal expansion [1][7][8]. - **AI Bubble Concerns**: There are rising concerns about an AI bubble, characterized by high market concentration and overvaluation in the tech sector. The bubble is expected to remain stable until 2026, with potential risks of bursting in 2027 or 2028 [1][9][10]. Additional Important Content - **Inflation and Employment Forecasts**: The CPI growth rate for 2026 is anticipated to fluctuate between 2.8% and 3.1%, with unemployment peaking at 4.6% in early 2026 before gradually declining to 4.3%-4.4% by year-end [4][11]. - **Investment Trends**: AI-related investments are expected to continue growing but at a slower rate, while non-AI investments may rebound due to lower interest rates and improved confidence in capital expenditures [4][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is projected to continue rising in 2026, albeit with increased volatility. Short-term bond yields are expected to decrease, while long-term yields will remain high [4][13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic landscape and potential investment opportunities and risks for 2026.