去年夏天，特朗普对进口钢铁和铝制品征收了高达50%的关税，并将这些税收扩大到包括洗衣机、烤箱 在内的多种金属制品。该举措对美国其他主要贸易伙伴造成严重冲击，包括加拿大、欧盟、墨西哥和韩 国。所谓"衍生产品"(即含有钢铁或铝的产品)也被纳入征税清单使得企业在识别其从海外采购商品中所 含金属比例时面临艰巨任务。 智通财经APP获悉，为应对日益严峻的通胀压力并挽救中期选举前的选民支持率，据知情人士透露，特 朗普政府计划缩减部分钢铁和铝制品关税。这些关税在加剧美国消费者"可负担性危机"的同时，也令企 业在计算成本时面临困难。知情人士表示，美国贸易代表办公室正努力解决去年商务部仓促推进美国总 统特朗普关税议程所引发的复杂问题。这位知情人士称，白宫已向企业传达正在酝酿调整方案，但具体 细节和时间安排仍不明确。 此外，放松钢铝制品关税也被视为简化当前复杂游说机制的一部分。自加关税以来，美国企业可以通 过"纳入程序"游说政府，将竞争对手的相关进口产品列入加税范围。美国商务部通常会批准这些以"国 家安全风险"为由的申请，涉及商品甚至包括自行车零部件等。 本周，特朗普对美国进口商品征收的关税在国会以及国会预算办公室和纽约联邦储备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill aimed at terminating Trump's tariffs on Canada, indicating increasing anxiety over the White House's economic agenda as midterm elections focus on livelihood issues [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The bill's passage highlights Trump's weakening control over the House, as six Republicans broke ranks and nearly all Democrats opposed it [1][2]. - Trump's previous threats to veto similar measures suggest that the likelihood of this bill becoming law is low [1][2]. Group 2: Trade Relations - Trump is privately considering withdrawing from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which could escalate trade tensions in North America [1][2]. - Approximately 80% of goods imported from Canada meet USMCA standards and are exempt from tariffs [1][2]. Group 3: Political Context - The Republican Party is striving to maintain control of the House and Senate in the upcoming November elections, facing challenges due to declining support for Trump on economic and immigration issues [1][2].

众议院议员最早可能于周三就是否否决唐纳德・特朗普总统的部分关税政策进行投票，此次投票将在一 场高度聚焦美国民众生活成本焦虑的中期选举前举行。 此次投票将以一项反对总统对加拿大加收关税的决议案拉开序幕。此前，众议院议长迈克・约翰逊于周 二晚间试图进行最后一搏，阻止相关投票，但未能成功。 约翰逊是特朗普在国会的主要盟友之一，数月来一直主导立法阻挠程序，为关税政策保驾护航，他推动 相关议事规则，有效阻止众议院终止总统广泛的关税征收权。约翰逊支持的一项新提案本可将这一阻挠 禁令延长至7月底。 然而，民主党人与三名共和党人否决了这一再次拖延的企图。倒戈的共和党议员包括：经常与总统意见 相左的肯塔基州众议员托马斯・马西、面临艰难连任竞选的加利福尼亚州众议员凯文・基利，以及来自 内布拉斯加州奥马哈市、即将退休的中间派议员唐・培根。 "国会需要就关税展开辩论，"培根在投票后于X平台发文表示，"关税对经济是'净负面影响'，也是美国 消费者、制造商和农民正在承担的一笔沉重税收。" 在高度聚焦民众生活负担的中期选举季，民主党人将特朗普的关税作为核心竞选议题。该党指出，这类 关税加剧了通胀，推高了生活成本危机。 弗吉尼亚州民主党众议 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美股AI担忧重燃，美国零售数据逊色，金价震荡回落；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益 率跌5.94个基点报4.143%；美元指数涨0.01%报96.86，离岸人民币对美元微幅升值 报6.9143；COMEX黄金期货跌0.62%报5047.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1121.22，现货1118，基差-3.22，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国1月CPI和PPI、美国非农就业数据、美国12月营建许可终 值、美联储和欧央行委员讲话。美股AI担忧重燃，美国零售数据逊色，金价回落。 沪金溢价扩大至2.5元/克左右。国内外节假日集中，波动率下降，今日关注非农数 据，金价向上趋势不变。 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月11日 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.1% to $5084.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that uncertainties driven by the Trump administration's policies and the midterm elections may remain high, but an optimistic outlook for the gold market is still possible, which could positively influence other precious metals [1] - The bullish trend in non-ferrous metals is anticipated to continue into 2026, especially if leading indicators for infrastructure and manufacturing in China and the U.S. show improvement [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has its top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 49.87% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua closely tracks the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for February is A-shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [1][10] - In 2026, the core macro - narrative may revolve around the "Big MAC" trade, with the Trump administration's actions likely aimed at winning the mid - term elections [16] - The victory - centered macro - narrative framework constructed by the Trump administration may face a major test in the mid - term elections, and the global macro - environment may experience significant fluctuations in 2026, with long - term trends such as risk - aversion and de - dollarization continuing [5][44] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Macro Trading Main Lines Monthly Main Line 1: Geopolitical risks may rise - The US's cross - border arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro may be the fuse for rising geopolitical risks in 2026, and it may strengthen the Trump administration's motivation for external military intervention [17] - Geopolitical events may be used by Trump to boost his support rate. If the election situation is unfavorable, the Trump administration may provoke geopolitical conflicts to transfer internal contradictions and boost support [18][20] - Geopolitical risks may remain high, strengthening investors' risk - aversion demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran and the US's actions around Greenland may lead to market concerns and drive up the prices of oil and gold [21] Monthly Main Line 2: The game over the Fed's independence may cause continuous disturbances - The Trump administration's frictions with the Fed have intensified. The administration may be trying to intervene in the Fed's independence to achieve the resonance of fiscal, monetary, and credit cycles to support the mid - term elections [22][26] - The core obstacle lies in the monetary policy. The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 conflicts with the Trump administration's desire for rapid and significant rate cuts. Also, the rising US Treasury yields during the rate - cut cycle make the Fed more cautious [30][32] - Even if Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, disturbances around the Fed's independence and subsequent monetary policy paths will likely continue. Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction rate - cut" idea conflicts with the Trump administration's policies, and he may face challenges in maintaining the Fed's independence while meeting the Trump administration's demands. Additionally, internal differences within the Fed and the limited potential for rate cuts may also affect the Fed's policy decisions [34][35][39] Annual Main Line: The victory narrative faces the mid - term election test - The Trump administration's victory - centered narrative framework may face a test in the mid - term elections. To boost support, the administration may adopt a more aggressive approach, and the global macro - environment may fluctuate significantly in 2026, with risk - aversion and de - dollarization trends continuing [44] 2. Monthly Asset Performance Review - In January, risk assets performed well, while the global bond market was mediocre. Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong performance, with gold and silver rising by 13% and 43% respectively. Crude oil rebounded, and the Asian stock market outperformed the US and European markets, with the South Korean stock market being the most outstanding. A - shares showed structural differentiation, and the US dollar depreciated while the Japanese yen appreciated significantly [47][49] - **Gold**: In January, gold prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts but dropped 9% on the last trading day due to the Fed's decision to pause rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman. In the long term, the core drivers for gold price increases remain, but in the short term, there is technical adjustment pressure [7][52] - **Silver**: In January, silver prices first soared and then plunged. The sharp rise was mainly due to its high - volatility and speculative nature and the overall boost of the precious - metal sector by geopolitical risks. The long - term outlook is positive due to its financial and industrial attributes, but in the short term, it may continue to fluctuate widely [8][60][71] - **Copper**: In January, LME copper prices fluctuated at a high level, rising 4.6% for the month. After the adjustment stabilizes, copper may become a new potential target for speculation in the commodity market. The current high gold - copper ratio and the increasing demand from emerging industries are favorable factors [9][73][74] 3. Monthly Asset Allocation Suggestions - Based on the risk - parity model and subjective logic judgment, the recommended core allocation order for February is A - shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [10] - **Equity**: A - shares are highly recommended, especially small - cap stocks in February. US stocks are moderately recommended, with long - term positive trends. Japanese stocks are also moderately recommended, while Hong Kong stocks are moderately under - recommended [81][82] - **Bonds**: Chinese bonds are moderately under - recommended in general, while credit bonds and convertible bonds are moderately recommended. US Treasuries are highly recommended, with short - term bonds having more downward yield potential [82] - **Commodities**: Gold and copper are highly recommended. Gold is supported in the long term but faces short - term adjustment pressure. Copper has long - term demand support but may have higher short - term volatility [82] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index and the RMB are moderately recommended. The US dollar index may rebound in the short term but may decline again in the long term. The RMB has a positive outlook, but the appreciation space may be limited in the early stage of economic recovery [83]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected a request to block California's new congressional district map, which may allow the Democratic Party to gain five seats in the upcoming midterm elections [1] Group 1 - The Supreme Court's ruling paves the way for California to use the newly drawn districts in this year's congressional elections [1] - The decision was made without any dissent among the justices [1]

特朗普已筹集到前所未有的竞选资金，以帮助共和党在11月的大选中保住国会的控制权。他的政治委员 会和共和党全国委员会共筹集了4.83亿美元。特朗普的财富主要来自其最富有的捐助者以及对小额捐款 者的不懈争取。仅"让美国再次伟大"组织自特朗普赢得2024年总统大选以来就已筹集了3.13亿美元。尽 管拥有雄厚的财力，特朗普也深知现任总统几乎总会在中期选举中失利。全国民调显示，大多数选民不 认可他对经济和其他问题的处理方式。 ...

在金银价格暴跌之际，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）于当地时间周五宣布上调Comex黄金和白银期 货的交易保证金要求。根据声明，对于非高风险账户，黄金期货的保证金将从当前合约价值的6%提高 至8%，高风险账户的保证金则从6.6%上调至8.8%。白银方面，非高风险账户的保证金将从11%升至 15%，高风险账户将从12.1%提高至16.5%。铂金和钯金期货的保证金也将相应上调。相关调整将于下周 一收盘后生效。 3、众议院休会无法审议拨款法案 美联邦政府部分"停摆" 当地时间30日晚，美国参议院以71票赞成、29票反对的结果，通过了1.2万亿美元的联邦政府多个 部门剩余财年拨款法案，为国会避免政府长期停摆铺平了道路。但由于众议院预计要到下周一（2月2 日）才能复会并安排投票，相关拨款无法在现有预算授权到期前完成立法程序。美国联邦政府于当地时 间1月31日零时进入技术性、部分"停摆"状态。（央视新闻） 1、特朗普称庞大舰队驶向伊朗 已超委内瑞拉 据环球时报援引埃菲社1月30日报道，美国总统特朗普30日警告称，驶向伊朗的舰队规模"甚至比部 署在委内瑞拉的舰队还要大"，但他为与德黑兰达成协议敞开大门。报道称，特朗普在椭圆形办公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the policies of the Trump administration will significantly impact global markets this year [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - CITIC Securities believes one of the core goals of the Trump administration is to lower long-term interest rates through changes in Federal Reserve personnel and various initiatives, which would boost the traditional economy and assist in midterm elections [1] - If successful, this could positively influence global stock markets and commodities [1] Group 2: Foreign Policy and Asset Impact - The administration's foreign policy actions are primarily focused on domestic issues and voter demands, which may only have a transient impact on major asset classes [1] - The extent of fiscal deficit expansion remains uncertain, which could benefit gold and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Midterm Elections - The results of the midterm elections are deemed very important; despite efforts by Trump to secure an advantage, a Republican loss could negatively impact risk assets, excluding U.S. Treasuries, in the short term [1]