你有没有发现，只要美联储一眨眼，全世界都要跟着抖三抖？ 我昨天在地铁上刷到一个新闻，直接愣住。花旗说，美联储接下来要连着降息三次，每次25个基点，合起来75基点，时间线都列好了：9月、10月、12月各 来一次，然后2026年再补两刀。不是预测模糊喊口号，是直接写明了预计将降息75基点。这跟我们平时听那种可能或许完全不是一个语气，花旗是拿真金白 银押的判断。 你说，这是不是有点意思了？ 说白了，这轮降息风声，其实早就有苗头了。去年的9月18号，美联储四年来首次降息，直接砍了50个基点，把利率打回5%以下。当时不少人还在纳闷是不 是一次性骚操作，结果紧接着，东大也跟进，降息、降准一波操作猛如虎。直接把A股从2689点救到3674，差不多一周时间拉了快1000点。那时候不少人朋 友圈刷屏说ICU抬到舞池，虽然说得夸张点，但你去看K线是真实的。 再来看东大。如果你还记得去年9月的走势，就知道全球资本动向对A股的影响有多大。当时正是中美利差开始收窄，人民币压力缓解，外资一周净流入超 400亿。那波行情不只是技术反弹，背后其实是全球资金在找下一站收益地。而且讲真，去年那次反弹，很多人是后知后觉，等到3700才想进，结果又 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a net inflow of funds, but trading activity decreased, with total A-share trading volume at 4.84 trillion yuan, down from the previous week, and turnover rate at 5.58%, also a decline from the prior week. The total net inflow of funds was 156.42 billion yuan, indicating stronger liquidity [7][8][19] - The domestic liquidity situation showed a net withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan in open market operations, with DR007 and R007 rates declining, and the spread between R007 and DR007 narrowing. The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds fell by 4 basis points, leading to an expansion of the yield curve spread [10][11][18] Group 2 - The issuance scale of equity funds increased to 13.75 billion yuan, up from the previous week. The top three sectors for fund accumulation were electronics, communications, and computers, while the sectors with the largest reductions were food and beverage, household appliances, and transportation [21][24][28] - The net inflow of margin financing was 7.649 billion yuan, with margin trading accounting for 8.4% of total A-share trading volume. The total number of ETF shares decreased by 750 million, with the largest inflow seen in the broad index of the CSI 300 ETF [28][29][32] Group 3 - In the primary market, there were two IPOs raising 5.007 billion yuan, while no refinancing occurred. The total amount of restricted shares that became tradable was 28.758 billion yuan, with the electronics, biomedicine, and automotive sectors having the highest amounts of unlocked shares [37][41][42] - The report highlighted that industrial capital reduced holdings by 3.18 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, coal, and household appliances being the top sectors for increased holdings, while electronics, biomedicine, and machinery equipment saw the largest reductions [38][39]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 投资策略 流动性与仓位周观察——5 月第 4 期：资金净流入 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/6/3 24/8/15 24/10/27 25/1/8 25/3/22 25/6/3 证券分析师：张冬冬 产业资本：上周产业资本减持 36.9 亿元，纺织服饰、交通运输、汽 车增持前三；机械设备、电子、计算机减持前三。上周解禁规模 120.02 亿元，电子、计算机、通信解禁规模前三。 风险提示：1、市场波动过大；2、数据具有时滞性；3、历史数据不 代表未来。 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 资金净流入，交投活跃度下降。上周全 A 成交额 5.47 万亿，较前一 周下降，换手率 6.49%，较前一周下降，融资供给端中基金、ETF 净流入， 两融净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 6.04 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hang Seng Index is expected to trend upward in the second half of the year, driven by new stimulus policies from mainland China, with a target price of 25,000 points and reduced overall volatility [1] - The widening interest rate differential between China and the US has historically pressured Hong Kong stocks, but this trend has reversed in recent years, with the recent increase in the differential coinciding with a rise in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is considered reasonable, with an average dividend yield of 3.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 times, both near historical averages [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant inflow of mainland funds into Hong Kong stocks, with over HKD 575.5 billion net inflow as of May 9 this year, driven by the higher dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks compared to declining long-term bond yields in mainland China [1] - The inflow of international funds into Hong Kong stocks has primarily come from Southeast Asia and some European and American funds, with expectations of further inflows if US-China relations improve and the Chinese economy remains stable [2] - Key sectors to watch in the second half include domestic consumption, innovative technology, new energy vehicles, and traditional thermal power, as more stimulus policies targeting daily consumer spending are anticipated [2]

国债期货下跌本质是资金对经济预期的投票： 1. 政策博弈：央行逆回购与财政部做市操作形成政策对冲 2. 利率困局：存款利率逼近零催生资产荒，资金在债市抱团 3. 国际传导：中美利差倒挂引发资本异动 4. 市场分化：机构套利与散户赎回形成多空绞杀 这场调整警示投资者：低利率时代，单纯依赖固收类产品的策略已面临系统性风险。 但真正的深水炸弹藏在利率市场。国有大行活期存款利率已跌至0.05%，距离零利率仅一步之遥，1年期定存更是全线跌破1%。这种史无前例的低利率环境 下，30年国债ETF却逆势飘红，近一年年化收益率高达15.28%。看似矛盾的现象揭示着残酷真相：资金正在用脚投票，逃离低息存款，却又不敢贸然进入风 险市场，只能在长期国债中抱团取暖。这种诡异的资金流向，恰恰暴露了市场对经济前景的深度焦虑。 国际市场的惊涛骇浪也在推波助澜。美国5年期国债招标遇冷，间接投标人获配比例创78.4%的历史新高，透露出全球资本对安全资产的疯狂追逐。当海外 资本大举买入中长期美债时，国内资金却在国债期货市场夺路而逃。这种剪刀差现象，暗示着中外资本对经济前景的认知鸿沟正在扩大。更有意思的是， SOFR利率期货未平仓合约三日内暴增17 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent rise in US Treasury yields is driven by concerns about US fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations pushed up by US tariff policies, and a weakening demand for US Treasuries. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has caused short - term upward pressure on yields, and the US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May. The demand for US Treasuries has weakened, especially in the long - term bond primary market, leading to a steeper yield curve [2][10][15]. - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. The domestic bond market is mainly driven by domestic demand and is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose [3][24]. - In the bond market trading strategy, the approach of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops is recommended. Attention can be paid to the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds. Currently, the new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective, and the new - old bond spread of the 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 is expected to widen further [4][27][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Reasons, Outlook, and Impact of the Rise in US Treasury Yields - **Reasons for the Rise in US Treasury Yields** - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has increased market concerns about US debt risks, causing short - term upward pressure on yields [2][10]. - The US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks. The uncertainty of the policy has pushed up the inflation expectations of the US household sector, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May, making it difficult for long - term Treasury yields to decline [2][10]. - The demand for US Treasuries has weakened. The primary market subscription enthusiasm has declined, especially for long - term bonds. As of May 9, the subscription multiple of long - term Treasury bonds in May dropped to 1.97 times from 2.33 times in April, and the weaker long - end subscription sentiment has steepened the yield curve [15]. - **Outlook for US Treasury Yields** - In the short term, US Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at a high level. The high uncertainty of the US tariff policy, persistent inflation expectations, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and weakening demand for US Treasuries make it difficult for yields to decline. However, the pressure for a significant further increase in yields is controllable due to the possibility of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US economy [24]. - **Impact on the Domestic Bond Market** - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose. The domestic bond market is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend [3][24]. 2. Bond Market Trading Strategies - Adopt the strategy of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops [4][27]. - Focus on the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds [4][27]. - The new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective. The 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 has become an active bond after its listing, and its new - old bond spread is expected to widen further as there are still 3 additional issuances planned [4][27][28].

内容提要 文章探讨套息交易及逆向套息交易的理论基础和运行机制，分析认为，中国也存在广义的套息交易行为，同时境外投资者存在逆向套息交易行为，逆向套息 交易损益与债券通规模显著相关。文章认为，未来套息交易受中美利差收敛、全球汇率波动加剧及政策调控边界效应三重制约。 一、套息交易概述 套息交易（Carry Trade）作为国际金融市场中典型的外汇交易策略，其运作机理根植于各国货币政策的差异性。该策略利用不同国家在不同的社会发展阶 段、基于各国实情执行不同利率政策的特点，以低息货币作为融资工具，将低成本融资而来的资金投资于高息货币及其资产中，以期获取更高的投资收益。 低息货币又被称为融资货币（Funding Currency），高息货币又被称为目标货币（Target Currency）。 套息交易在具体策略应用中，主要呈现两种操作模式。其一为无对冲的基础型套息交易，该模式不进行汇率风险对冲操作，其损益结构由持有期间息差收益 与汇率变动带来的汇差损益共同构成；其二则是风险缓释型套息交易，在基础型套息交易的基础上，通过运用远期、掉期及期权组合等衍生金融工具，避免 或者缩小汇率风险暴露，从而显著降低外汇市场不确定性对投资收 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 双降之后，谁在买入短债？ ——债市机构行为周报（5 月第 2 周） 报告日期： 2025-05-10 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 短端下行 5bp，详细拆解一下买盘 本周双降落地之后，中短端受利好出现明显下行，1Y 国债降至 1.40%， 而长端则在"买入预期、卖出现实"的博弈下表现偏震荡，利率曲线小 幅走陡，而周五尾盘央行货币政策执行报告中提及重启国债二级买卖， 利率由升转降，复盘本周，谁在买入短债？ 先看利率债的交易情况，本周对于国债而言，农商行与外资是短债的主 要推动力量，周度净买入 1Y 以下国债超 100 亿元，农商行本周采取哑 铃型配置，在买入短债的同时也增配 30Y 国债；对于政金债而言，本周 ...

降息降准终于来了。但为什么是在这个时候呢？ 今年以来，国家多次提及降息降准，却一直未落地，引发诸多猜测。此前我们曾提到，中美之间的降息节奏，关键要看美国美联储的动作。若美联储不降 息，我国率先降息，会拉大中美利差，进而导致资金外流。当前市场流动性严重不足，若降息节奏过快，尤其在美国之前降息，即便释放流动性，也可能无 法弥补资金出逃造成的缺口。 我国提前降准降息，主要基于以下原因：其一，当前市场流动性不足，已出现通缩迹象，必须释放流动性；其二，银行储蓄过高，今年一季度银行居民存款 增加 9 万多亿。自 2022 年 3 月美国降息后，我国居民存款持续上涨，目前人均居民存款超 11 万，总计达 140 多万亿。大量资金未进入市场流通，导致 M1 与 M2 的剪刀差不断扩大，反映出市场活力不足。尽管上个月数据显示剪刀差正在缩小，但此时降准降息，正是推动资金从 "死钱" 变为 "活钱"，促进市场 流通、提升经济活跃度的好时机。 当前，美债收益率不断上涨，我国国债收益率则呈下降趋势，降息降准后，我国国债收益率可能进一步下降，中美利差会进一步拉大。但值得注意的是，美 债利率上涨是因被抛售导致，这意味着资金正在撤离美国市场 ...

一图君也重新盘一下汇率与股市的关系！ 另外今天有惊喜送给大家！ 从缠论角度分析一下汇率！ 《一图读懂人民币汇率与股市的关系》 人民币汇率与A股、港股都呈现模糊正相关！而汇率又与中美利差强相关！在中美博弈背景下，对方不出降息牌，则我们也不出牌！ 近期美元走弱，中美利差继续缩小，人民币短期快速升值，助力了A股和港股的行情回暖！ 近期人民币汇率呈现"短期快速升值"，核心驱动因素包括美元走弱、中美经贸关系缓和。未来需重点关注中美关税谈判进展及美国经济数据对美元指数的扰 动。 7.6 7.4 ist 美元 est 7.2- 7 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2- 18-01-02 18-12-3 数据来源:wind.@一图i 但从技术层面看，汇率已经过了快速升值期，开始有震荡反复，对行情造成扰动！ 人民币汇率与 在中美博弈背: 近期美元走弱 哈尔尔卡塔同呼 HAHJIJ IHELK 复，对行情造 日 l 2018-01-02 2018-12- 数据来源：wind.@一图i H 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.6- 6.3 e- 2018-12 2018-01-02 中美利差 = 中 过往历史不代表 刻舟求剑式分析 您可以只看 ...