Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are overshadowed by US threats regarding China's oil purchases from Iran and Russia, indicating a strategic maneuver by the US to exert pressure on China [1][12][19]. Group 1: US Strategy - The US Treasury Secretary has highlighted China's role as a major buyer of Iranian and Russian oil, suggesting that this issue will be a focal point in the upcoming trade talks [3][12]. - The US aims to leverage the threat of sanctions to compel China to reduce or cease its oil imports from these countries, which are economically dependent on oil exports [5][12]. - The concept of "secondary sanctions" is introduced, targeting countries that trade with Iran and Russia to further isolate these nations economically [7][12]. Group 2: China's Response - China has consistently opposed US unilateral sanctions, asserting that its oil purchases are a matter of national interest and not subject to US interference [14][15]. - The Chinese stance indicates that it will not engage in discussions regarding oil purchases during the trade negotiations, focusing instead on tariff-related issues [17][19]. - The situation reflects a broader strategy by the US to use oil sanctions as a tool for negotiation, which China is likely to dismiss as a tactic lacking real leverage [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The short - term optimistic sentiment about oil prices has rebounded, and oil prices are expected to run strongly. In the short term, it will run strongly in the range of 525 - 535, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade negotiations are proceeding smoothly, and both sides intend to extend the sanctions exemption period. Trump has significantly shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement and threatened to impose tariffs [3]. - **Basis**: On July 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.80 per barrel. The basis was 19.95 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending July 18 increased by 0.455 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 22, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russia led to a sharp rise in international crude oil futures. Sino - US trade negotiations are in line with market expectations. Short - term oil prices will run strongly in the 525 - 535 range, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict from 50 days to 10 days. If there is no progress, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures in 10 days [5]. - Sino - US officials held "constructive" talks in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce period. Whether to extend it will be decided by Trump [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased, with increases of 2.36, 2.50, 9.20, and 1.72 respectively, and the ranges were 3.40%, 3.75%, 1.82%, and 2.41% respectively [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., also increased [9]. 5. Position Data - **API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels [3][13]. - **WTI and Brent Net Long Positions**: As of July 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased [3][15][18].

Group 1 - Trump has set a new 10-day ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, significantly shortening the previous deadline from 50 days to August 8 [1][2] - If no progress is made, the U.S. will impose tariffs on Russia and potentially implement secondary sanctions affecting countries that purchase Russian oil, which could impact major buyers like India [2][7] - Following Trump's announcement, international crude oil futures surged, with WTI reaching $69.76 and Brent at $73.08, marking the largest intraday gains since June 17 [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts express concern that the new deadline could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, especially as the EU has also announced new sanctions against Russia [6] - Trump indicated that the U.S. could increase domestic oil production to mitigate any potential impacts from sanctions on the oil market [8] - The potential secondary sanctions could affect India's trade relations with the U.S., raising questions about whether Trump will follow through with punitive measures against these trading partners [9] Group 3 - Russia has responded strongly to Trump's ultimatum, with officials indicating that they are unlikely to change their stance, despite the pressure from the U.S. [10] - The ongoing conflict and sanctions create a complex situation for both the U.S. and Russia, with each side calculating the potential consequences of their actions [10]

Group 1 - President Trump has set a new 10-day ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, significantly shortening the previous 50-day deadline to August 8 [1][2] - The announcement has led to a substantial increase in international crude oil prices, with WTI crude rising to $69.76, a nearly 4.6% increase, and Brent crude reaching $73.08, up over 4.3%, marking the largest intraday gains since June 17 [5] - Analysts express concern that if the ultimatum is enforced, it could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, especially as the EU has recently announced new sanctions against Russia [8] Group 2 - The potential for secondary sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil could impact major buyers like India, as the U.S. views such purchases as tacit support for Russia [9][10] - Trump's administration is currently negotiating with countries like India regarding trade agreements, raising questions about the likelihood of imposing sanctions on these trading partners [9][10] - Political analysts suggest that India and other major oil importers may reduce their imports of Russian energy, either voluntarily or due to tariff pressures, which could financially impact the Russian government [9][11] Group 3 - The Kremlin has responded to Trump's ultimatum by indicating that President Putin is unlikely to change his stance, despite the pressure from the U.S. [13] - Recent escalations in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine suggest that diplomatic efforts have not yielded progress, as indicated by the lack of response from Russia to Trump's ultimatum [12][13] - The situation reflects a complex strategic calculation for both the U.S. and Russia, with potential implications for global oil markets and geopolitical dynamics [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's ultimatum to Russia has been significantly shortened from 50 days to 10 days, creating heightened tensions and impacting global oil prices [1][3][11]. Group 1: Ultimatum and Sanctions - Trump has set a new deadline of August 8 for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, a reduction from the previous deadline of September 2 [1]. - The potential "secondary sanctions" could target countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, which may affect major buyers like India [1][7]. - Trump's warning of imposing "very severe, approximately 100% tariffs" on Russia if no agreement is reached within the stipulated time frame indicates a serious escalation in trade tensions [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - Following Trump's announcement, international crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI crude rising nearly 4.6% to $69.76 and Brent crude increasing over 4.3% to $73.08, marking the largest intraday gains in over six weeks [3]. - Analysts express concerns that the new deadline could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, potentially leading to further price increases [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Reactions - The EU has recently announced new sanctions against Russia, which includes penalties against Indian company Nayara Energy, indicating a broader geopolitical response to the conflict [6]. - Trump's remarks about not worrying about the impact of sanctions on the oil market suggest confidence in increasing domestic oil production to offset any potential supply disruptions [8]. - Political analysts speculate that India and other major oil-importing countries may reduce their imports of Russian energy, either voluntarily or due to tariff pressures, which could financially impact the Russian government [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight news shows that US President Trump plans to shorten the exemption period for Russia, increasing market expectations of new sanctions on Russian energy exports, leading to a generally strong performance of oil prices. The OPEC+ production cut supervision meeting did not give any suggestions, and the production in September will be decided at the weekend meeting of core oil-producing countries. Meanwhile, China-US trade negotiations have begun, and the exemption period may be further extended. In the short term, multiple positive factors are stimulating oil prices to run strongly. The short-term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long-term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental factors: US and Chinese senior economic officials held over five hours of talks in Stockholm to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and seek to extend the trade truce by three months; Trump set a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war; the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) emphasized full compliance with oil production agreements, and eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to decide whether to increase oil production in September, which is considered neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.50 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.49 per barrel. The basis was 19.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending July 18 in the US, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected decrease of 646,000 barrels); the EIA inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels); the Cushing area inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous increase of 213,000 barrels). As of July 28, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, an increase of 723,000 barrels, which is considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - Main positions: As of July 15, the main positions in WTI crude oil were long positions, with a decrease in long positions; as of July 15, the main positions in Brent crude oil were long positions, with an increase in long positions, which is considered neutral [3]. - Expectation: Short - term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long - term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine to about 10 - 12 days, threatening "secondary sanctions" on Russia. This statement pushed international crude oil futures to rise during Monday's trading session. US WTI crude oil rose to $67.06, up more than 2.9% on the day, and Brent crude oil rose to $70.35, up nearly 2.8% on the day [5]. - US and Chinese senior economic officials held talks in Stockholm, aiming to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and extend the trade truce by three months. Trade analysts believe that the tariff and export control truce reached in mid - May is likely to be extended by 90 days [5]. - Trump's remarks about firing the Fed Chairman Powell and his request to visit the renovation project of the Fed headquarters have attracted attention. Powell will hold a press conference on Thursday morning. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is not of high importance for the economy and interest rate decisions. The market generally expects no change in the benchmark interest rate [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it depends on the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil rose from $67.66 to $69.32, an increase of 2.45%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; SC crude oil decreased from 508.6 to 505.5, a decrease of 0.61%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.91 to $71.28, a decrease of 0.88% [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $69.67 to $70.41, an increase of 1.06%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.96 to $71.50, a decrease of 0.64%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $67.66 to $67.07, a decrease of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $71.87 to $71.21, a decrease of 0.92% [9]. - API inventory: As of July 18, the API inventory was 45.4388 million barrels, a decrease of 577,000 barrels [10]. - EIA inventory: As of July 18, the EIA inventory was 41.8993 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels [12]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, the net long position was 153,331, a decrease of 9,096 from the previous period [14]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, relevant data shows changes in net long positions, and as of July 15, the net long position was 238,745, an increase of 16,398 from the previous period [17].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia's failure to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine has led him to shorten the previously set 50-day deadline to approximately 10 to 12 days, threatening to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia if no progress is made [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's statements, international crude oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude rising to $67.06, up over 2.9%, and Brent crude reaching $70.35, up nearly 2.8% [2] - The Russian ruble weakened against the dollar, dropping below 81.00 and falling over 2%, marking a new low since mid-May [5] - Market concerns about potential supply disruptions due to sanctions have intensified, with traders reassessing risks related to transportation costs and supply chain changes [8] Group 2: Sanctions and Trade Implications - Trump's threat of "secondary sanctions" could impact major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and China, as it may lead to sanctions on countries doing business with sanctioned entities [5][7] - The potential for a 100% tariff on Russian goods, including oil, was previously mentioned, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [6] - Trump's remarks about Russia's rich rare earth resources suggest a potential area for trade, although the current geopolitical climate complicates such discussions [5] Group 3: Diplomatic Efforts and Peace Prospects - Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have faced setbacks, with Trump expressing frustration over the lack of sincerity from Putin in negotiations [9] - NATO allies, including Germany, are increasing pressure on Russia and enhancing military support for Ukraine, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive stance against Russian actions [9] - Despite some minor diplomatic exchanges, such as prisoner swaps, there has been no substantial progress towards ending the conflict that began with Russia's invasion in February 2022 [9]

俄乌冲突仍在持续。 据俄罗斯国防部最新发布的战况信息，过去一周，俄军对乌克兰军工企业、乌军军用机场基础设施、乌军无人 机组装和储存设施等军事目标发动了10次联合打击。另据乌媒报道，7月25日夜间，俄罗斯向乌克兰发射弹道 导弹，对哈尔科夫州和第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州进行袭击。 关键时刻，美国总统特朗普的最新表态也引发各方关注。他表示，希望维持《新削减战略武器条约》中设定的 美国与俄罗斯战略核武器部署上限。这是特朗普上任以来首次表示希望维持《新削减战略武器条约》，继续对 美俄战略核武器部署实施限制。 俄罗斯发动袭击 据央视新闻7月26日报道，当地时间25日，俄罗斯国防部发布一周战况信息称，过去一周，俄军控制了5个定居 点，并对乌克兰军工企业、乌军军用机场基础设施、乌军无人机组装和储存设施等军事目标发动了10次联合打 击。俄军黑海舰队摧毁了4艘乌军无人艇。俄军防空系统则拦截并摧毁了乌军27枚航空炸弹、7枚火箭弹、4 枚"海王星"导弹和2049架无人机。 乌克兰武装部队总参谋部25日通报战况信息称，截至当天下午，前线共发生85次战斗，其中波克罗夫斯克地区 的战斗最为频繁。俄军对乌边境定居点发动了袭击，乌军则击退俄军多次 ...

长达三年半的俄乌冲突，或许在未来几个月内迎来大结局。 连老挝这样贫穷的国家都忍不住在俄乌冲突上押注，准备往俄乌边境派遣扫雷部队协助。而普京本人更 是不惜和特朗普撕破脸，也要打下去。 特朗普发现，除非美军亲自下场，好像还真没有什么好的反制手段。 他想来想去，想出了一个"好办法"：——谁买俄罗斯石油，美国就对其征收100％关税。 上周，特朗普和北约秘书长吕特进行会谈时，称要给俄罗斯50天时间，如果俄罗斯在50天内还不能达成 协议，那就要对俄罗斯征收100％的关税，而且是二级制裁，和俄罗斯有贸易往来的国家同样将征收 100％的关税。 对于这个威胁，基本上没谁当真，毕竟俄罗斯是能源出口大国，欧洲、中国、印度等国都需要从俄罗斯 买能源。特朗普真敢对大家征收这么高的关税吗？ 目前来看，美国还真是这么想的。 7月21日，美国财政部长贝森特称，目前中美双方贸易形式良好，接下来要讨论其他议题，比如——伊 朗和俄罗斯石油贸易问题。 贝森特称，"中国是伊朗和俄罗斯最大的石油买家，我们将讨论这些问题。" 为什么专门和中国谈这个问题？因为美国也知道，真要因为这种莫名其妙的理由给中国加关税，中国百 分之百的会进行反制，到时候特朗普就又回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump's announcement of potential 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy has raised significant international concern, particularly from India, which relies heavily on Russian oil imports [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The proposed 100% tariffs on Russian goods are unlikely to have a substantial direct impact on the Russian economy, as the total U.S.-Russia trade is only about $3.5 billion, with over 85% of U.S. imports from Russia consisting of fertilizers and inorganic chemicals [1]. - The real threat lies in the secondary sanctions targeting countries that buy Russian energy, which could impose tariffs as high as 100% or more [1][3]. Group 2: India's Response - India, as the third-largest oil consumer globally, imports 85% of its oil, with approximately 35% sourced from Russia. The Indian government emphasizes the importance of securing its energy needs and is wary of double standards in trade [3]. - Indian officials have indicated that they can diversify their oil imports, increasing the number of sourcing countries from 27 to 40, thus mitigating the impact of potential U.S. sanctions [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. tariff threats may inadvertently strengthen cooperation between China and India, as both countries face similar trade pressures from the U.S. [5]. - India's strategic autonomy is challenged by U.S. actions, leading to discussions about reviving trilateral cooperation with Russia and China [3][5]. Group 4: Criticism of U.S. Policy - Critics in the U.S. argue that secondary tariffs will not deter countries from purchasing Russian energy and may damage the U.S.'s reputation as a reliable trade partner [5][7]. - Research indicates that imposing such tariffs could result in significant economic losses for the U.S., potentially up to $30 trillion, and increase the likelihood of a recession [5][7]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The unilateral approach of the U.S. is seen as damaging to multilateral trade systems and could accelerate the shift towards a multipolar international order [7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes highlight the complexities of global interdependence, suggesting that dialogue and cooperation are essential for resolving conflicts [7].