早在8月，美国总统特朗普就威胁对中国实施"二级制裁"，理由是中国和印度购买俄石油，为俄罗斯提供了用于俄乌冲突的资金，因此只 要阻止中印购买俄油，就能迫使俄罗斯认真谈判。 不过自始至终美国都只对印度采取了措施，并没有对中国下手，但前不久事态发展有了新的变化，美国鼓动欧盟和"七国集团（G7）"参 与对华"二级制裁"，要求对中国商品加征100%关税。 «——【·中国反制与欧盟战略转向·】——» 2025年夏秋之交，一场围绕稀土资源的博弈在大国间悄然展开。美国试图拉拢欧盟对华实施"二级制裁"，要求对中国商品加征100%关 税，理由是中国通过购买俄罗斯石油"资助俄乌冲突"。这一要求触及中国核心利益，引发中方强烈反制。 9月22日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在接受比利时媒体专访时明确表示，欧盟将自主决定关税政策，拒绝加入美国的对华制裁联盟。这一 立场转变背后，是中国通过稀土出口管制施加的战略压力，以及欧盟对自身产业安全的深刻考量。 «——【·前言·】——» 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，美国始终试图通过经济手段削弱俄罗斯的战争潜力。其核心策略之一，是切断俄罗斯的能源收入来源。为 此，美国不仅对俄实施多轮制裁，还施压中国和印度 ...

波兰总理图斯克表示，在该国领空据称遭到多架俄罗斯无人机侵犯后，他的国家将正式请求启动北约第 四条款。他称之为"侵略行径"。 图斯克列举说，在整个事件中，有19架无人机侵犯了该国领空，导致其中一些被击落。北约第四条款规 定："当任何缔约国认为，任何缔约国的领土完整、政治独立或安全受到威胁时，各缔约国将共同协 商。" 第四条款的协商可以在达成共识的情况下，导致联盟采取行动。《波兰笔记》（Notes from Poland） 称，"此前该条款已被启动过七次，包括2022年俄乌冲突爆发时，由波兰和其他七个国家启动。" 分析继续写道："触发第四条款会启动北约内部的协商程序，然后可能导致联盟采取行动。在2022年， 它导致了北约向乌克兰提供支持并启动了自己的反应部队。" 欧洲盟军最高司令部的一位发言人将这次对北约"东翼"成员波兰的夜间边境侵犯事件，描述为"北约飞 机首次在盟国领空与潜在威胁交战。" 据外媒援引，他进一步证实，在波兰的德国"爱国者"导弹系统"已进入戒备状态，一架意大利的空中预 警机和一架来自北约多国多用途加油运输机队（MRTT）的空中加油机也已升空"。 图斯克在讲话中说，"我们正在处理一起大规模的挑衅"，并 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the U.S. is strategically differentiating its approach towards India and China, particularly in the context of tariffs and sanctions related to Russian oil imports [1][3][19] - U.S. Vice President Vance indicated that the U.S. is not imposing similar sanctions on China as it has on India due to the high existing tariffs on China and the need for negotiation to end the trade war [5][11][12] - The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China complicates the imposition of sanctions, as both countries rely on each other for various goods and services, making such actions potentially self-damaging for the U.S. [6][10][11] Group 2 - The U.S. has recently canceled 91% of the tariffs imposed during the trade war, highlighting the economic damage both countries have suffered [7] - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly in states like Iowa, is heavily reliant on the Chinese market for exports, indicating that any sanctions could lead to significant economic repercussions [7][8] - The U.S. is using tariffs on India as a strategic tool to pressure India into shifting its military procurement from Russia to the U.S., given India's heavy reliance on Russian arms [15][19] Group 3 - The article discusses India's response to U.S. tariffs, including efforts to settle oil transactions in rupees and plans to resell refined Russian oil to Europe, showcasing India's attempts to navigate the geopolitical landscape [21] - The U.S. is perceived to be selectively enforcing sanctions, focusing on India while ignoring larger Russian oil trade with Europe, which raises questions about the fairness of U.S. actions [21][15] - The overall dynamic reflects a broader geopolitical struggle where the U.S. seeks to balance its relationships with both India and China while managing its own economic interests [19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].

1. 乌克兰空军：俄罗斯在夜间发射了450架无人机和导弹。 金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（7月22日） 冲突情况： 其他情况： 1. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基：法国公司将开始在乌克兰生产无人机。 2. 乌克兰国防部长：乌克兰需要6亿美元来弥补今年的国防采购缺口。 3. 据俄新社：根据普京的法令，来自外国港口的船只在与俄罗斯联邦安全局达成协议后，将允许进入俄 罗斯海港。 2. 市场消息：俄罗斯使用弹道导弹、巡航导弹、匕首导弹和无人机对基辅发动袭击，导致一座购物中 心、一座地铁站和多座建筑物受损。 3. 俄罗斯国防部：俄罗斯防空系统击落了乌克兰武装部队的一枚海马斯系统炮弹和397架乌克兰武装部 队飞机型号的无人机。 4. 俄罗斯莫斯科市长：国防部防空部队击落了一架朝莫斯科飞来的无人机。专家正在残骸坠落现场开展 工作。 和谈情况： 1. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基：提议在土耳其举行与俄罗斯的新一轮会谈。 2. 塔斯社：俄罗斯与乌克兰可能于7月24日至25日在土耳其举行会谈。 3. 克里姆林宫：（关于乌克兰会谈）俄方与乌方提交的两份备忘录草案立场截然相反，因此仍有大量工 作要做。我们支持进行第三轮俄乌会谈。 4. 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Germany are nearing an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, specifically involving the provision of two Patriot missile systems to Kyiv [1] Group 1 - The agreement between the US and Germany signifies a collaborative effort to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities against potential threats [1] - The provision of Patriot missile systems indicates a strategic move to bolster Ukraine's air defense infrastructure [1]

Group 1 - The core argument is that U.S. military aid to Ukraine is a profitable business for the American military-industrial complex, with most funds eventually returning to the U.S. [1][3] - Since February 2022, the U.S. has allocated approximately $182.8 billion in aid to Ukraine, with actual payments around $84 billion, and 90% of this money flows back to the U.S. [1][3] - The "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative" allows Ukraine to directly contract with U.S. defense companies, leading to significant profits for these firms and job creation in various congressional districts [3][5] Group 2 - The "Presidential Drawdown Authority" (PDA) enables the U.S. president to transfer weapons from stockpiles to Ukraine, which clears inventory and creates new orders for defense contractors [6] - For instance, the U.S. provided "Stinger" missiles from its inventory, which had not been produced for over 20 years, and subsequently signed a $624.6 million contract to restart production [6] - The ongoing crisis is seen as a financial boon for U.S. defense companies, with increasing demand for military equipment from NATO countries, further enhancing the profitability of U.S. arms sales [7][9] Group 3 - The cost of manufacturing a Patriot missile system is approximately $1 billion, with individual missiles costing around $3.7 million [8] - The longer the conflict persists, the more financial gain the U.S. military-industrial complex realizes, as the demand for arms continues to rise [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Europe may face large-scale military conflict with Russia before 2030, as countries like France, Germany, and the UK are nearing their limits of tolerance towards Russian actions [2] - France's strategic assessment suggests that European nations must unite to address the challenges posed by Russia, indicating a potential shift in military strategy [2] - There are doubts within French media regarding whether France genuinely desires to engage in war with Russia, with analyses suggesting that the Macron government is more focused on financial and international influence rather than military confrontation [2] Group 2 - Germany's position includes a significant investment in the "Patriot" missile system, estimated to cost around one billion dollars, reflecting its commitment to defense and support for Ukraine as a protective measure for itself [2] - German politicians view aiding Ukraine as a means to safeguard Germany, suggesting a strategy of allowing Slavic nations to exhaust each other to protect national interests [2] - The article raises questions about the likelihood of direct military engagement between European nations and Russia, particularly if Eastern European countries were to commit troops to Ukraine [2] Group 3 - From Russia's perspective, there is no intention to invade other NATO member states, implying that the concerns of France and other nations may be somewhat unfounded [3] - The potential for war in Europe raises alarms, with the possibility of the United States becoming involved again, which could lead to a catastrophic scenario akin to World War III [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Prime Minister of Bahrain has stated that there are no plans to transfer the Patriot missile system to Ukraine [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects Bahrain's current military strategy and its position regarding international military support [1]

向乌克兰输送"爱国者"导弹系统、对俄罗斯威胁征收100%关税、提出50天内达成和平协议的要 求……"预热"多日后，美国特朗普政府14日推出在俄乌问题上的一系列"新动作"。 美国媒体和专家认为，特朗普政府在俄乌问题上出现明显政策转向，但相关举措难以对俄乌局势和谈判 进程产生实质性影响。美国的反复多变增加了俄乌局势走向的不确定性，但始终不变的是其以自身利益 为重的"美国优先"政策。 欧洲盟友买单 特朗普政府14日宣布，将通过北约向乌克兰提供"爱国者"系统等武器装备，并威胁可能对俄征收"非常 严厉"的关税及次级关税。在美方新举措中，有两点引起特别关注。 一个关注点是，特朗普说，美国的欧洲盟友而非美国人将支付购买"爱国者"系统等援乌武器的费用，称 欧洲盟友"将运送武器并承担100%的费用"。 访美的北约秘书长吕特表示，德国、芬兰、丹麦、瑞典、挪威、荷兰和加拿大均有意加入"重新武装"乌 克兰的计划，通过北约向乌克兰提供军援。据报道，德美防长14日已就德国从美国采购"爱国者"系统援 乌一事展开磋商。德国总理默茨先前宣布，德国计划从美国采购两套"爱国者"系统。 另一个关注点是，特朗普政府把关税作为施压手段，提出如果俄罗斯在 ...