据美国NBC电视台最新报道，日前，美国副总统万斯在接受电视采访时，面对记者的"灵魂直击"，给出了耐人寻味的回答 ——为何中印都购买了大量俄罗斯石油，但美国却只对印度加征50%关税，却没有对中国采取相同的制裁措施？美国"二 把手"先是秀了一波强硬，宣称美国并非不敢对中国制裁，而是因为对华关税"已经很高"了。 紧接着，万斯就给出了美国不愿制裁中国的真正原因，他表示，美国目前正在努力结束与中国的贸易战，而要谈判就必须 有所妥协，单纯通过制裁来解决问题并不明智。言下之意，中国和印度不一样，美方目前有求于中国，因此绝不能对中 国"轻启战端"。 前言 中美经济深度绑定，制裁伤敌一千自损八百 印度一直以来都试图"对标"中国，然而美国却亲手打破了莫迪当局的美梦。 这种深度绑定让美国投鼠忌器。就像美国国务卿鲁比奥坦言的，追查中国购买的俄油会发现，大部分原油最终变成了欧洲 加油站的汽油和美国工厂的塑料原料。制裁中国等于掐断自己的供应链，而印度86%的武器依赖俄罗斯，即便被加征50% 关税，短期内也无法摆脱对俄油的依赖。美国算得很清楚：制裁中国是"自杀式袭击"，而敲打印度只是"皮肉之苦"。 万斯提到的"结束贸易战需要妥协"，背后是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].

Group 1 - The core argument is that U.S. military aid to Ukraine is a profitable business for the American military-industrial complex, with most funds eventually returning to the U.S. [1][3] - Since February 2022, the U.S. has allocated approximately $182.8 billion in aid to Ukraine, with actual payments around $84 billion, and 90% of this money flows back to the U.S. [1][3] - The "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative" allows Ukraine to directly contract with U.S. defense companies, leading to significant profits for these firms and job creation in various congressional districts [3][5] Group 2 - The "Presidential Drawdown Authority" (PDA) enables the U.S. president to transfer weapons from stockpiles to Ukraine, which clears inventory and creates new orders for defense contractors [6] - For instance, the U.S. provided "Stinger" missiles from its inventory, which had not been produced for over 20 years, and subsequently signed a $624.6 million contract to restart production [6] - The ongoing crisis is seen as a financial boon for U.S. defense companies, with increasing demand for military equipment from NATO countries, further enhancing the profitability of U.S. arms sales [7][9] Group 3 - The cost of manufacturing a Patriot missile system is approximately $1 billion, with individual missiles costing around $3.7 million [8] - The longer the conflict persists, the more financial gain the U.S. military-industrial complex realizes, as the demand for arms continues to rise [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Europe may face large-scale military conflict with Russia before 2030, as countries like France, Germany, and the UK are nearing their limits of tolerance towards Russian actions [2] - France's strategic assessment suggests that European nations must unite to address the challenges posed by Russia, indicating a potential shift in military strategy [2] - There are doubts within French media regarding whether France genuinely desires to engage in war with Russia, with analyses suggesting that the Macron government is more focused on financial and international influence rather than military confrontation [2] Group 2 - Germany's position includes a significant investment in the "Patriot" missile system, estimated to cost around one billion dollars, reflecting its commitment to defense and support for Ukraine as a protective measure for itself [2] - German politicians view aiding Ukraine as a means to safeguard Germany, suggesting a strategy of allowing Slavic nations to exhaust each other to protect national interests [2] - The article raises questions about the likelihood of direct military engagement between European nations and Russia, particularly if Eastern European countries were to commit troops to Ukraine [2] Group 3 - From Russia's perspective, there is no intention to invade other NATO member states, implying that the concerns of France and other nations may be somewhat unfounded [3] - The potential for war in Europe raises alarms, with the possibility of the United States becoming involved again, which could lead to a catastrophic scenario akin to World War III [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Prime Minister of Bahrain has stated that there are no plans to transfer the Patriot missile system to Ukraine [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects Bahrain's current military strategy and its position regarding international military support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The German Defense Minister Pistorius announced that a decision regarding the procurement of two Patriot missile systems will be made in the coming days or weeks, but the actual delivery of the first systems will take several months [1] Group 1 - The procurement decision for the Patriot missile systems is imminent, expected within days or weeks [1] - The delivery timeline for the first systems indicates a delay, requiring several months before they are operational [1]

Conflict Situation - Ukrainian military reported that Russian night attacks resulted in injuries to at least 12 people across six districts of Kyiv [4] - Russian airstrikes on Kyiv caused two fatalities [4] - Russian defense forces reportedly destroyed 14 Ukrainian drones during the night [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russia launched 18 missiles and approximately 400 drones during the night attacks [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's meeting with US Secretary of State Rubio is being prepared [4] - Kremlin is awaiting signals from Kyiv regarding their willingness to commence a third round of talks [4] - President Zelensky expressed Ukraine's readiness for peace negotiations in any form [4] Economic Impact - German Chancellor Merz estimated the losses from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to be around 500 billion euros [2] - Over 500 companies participated in a meeting in Italy, with approximately 200 agreements ready to be signed, totaling over 10 billion euros [2] Military Support - The US has approved a new shipment of weapons to Ukraine [4] - Germany is prepared to purchase two Patriot missile systems, while Norway will buy one [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ukraine's President Zelensky announced that Germany is prepared to purchase two Patriot missile systems, while Norway will buy one system [1] Group 2 - The acquisition of these missile systems indicates a strengthening of defense capabilities in Europe, particularly in response to ongoing security concerns [1] - This move may reflect a broader trend of increased military spending and collaboration among European nations in the face of geopolitical tensions [1] - The purchases could also signify a shift in defense procurement strategies, emphasizing advanced missile defense systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - German Chancellor Merz is prepared to procure Patriot missile systems from the United States and send them to Ukraine [1] Group 1 - The decision indicates Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - The procurement of Patriot missile systems reflects a strategic shift in Germany's defense policy [1] - This move may enhance Germany's military capabilities and strengthen NATO's collective defense posture [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's consideration of providing Ukraine with an additional Patriot missile system, indicating ongoing military support for Ukraine amid the conflict with Russia [1] Group 1 - The potential provision of a second Patriot missile system highlights the U.S. commitment to enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities [1] - This move may influence the geopolitical landscape, particularly in relation to U.S.-Russia relations and NATO's stance on the conflict [1] - The discussion around military aid reflects the broader context of U.S. foreign policy and its implications for defense contractors involved in missile system production [1]