Core Viewpoint - Ukraine and the United States are preparing to sign a contract for the supply of 25 Patriot missile systems, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] Group 1 - The delivery of these air defense systems will occur in batches annually over the next few years [1] - Ukraine is seeking priority in the supply queue from some European countries for the Patriot systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions surrounding the U.S. push for secondary sanctions against China due to its oil trade with Russia, which the U.S. claims supports the Russian military in the Ukraine conflict. This has led to a strategic response from China, particularly in the rare earth sector, which is critical for various industries in Europe and the U.S. [1][5][12] Group 1: U.S. Sanctions and China's Response - The U.S. has been attempting to weaken Russia's war potential through economic means, including sanctions and pressuring countries like China and India to reduce oil purchases from Russia [9]. - The U.S. proposed to the EU to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, claiming that China indirectly supports Russia's military actions through its oil trade [12]. - China has responded by implementing export controls on rare earth elements, which are essential for high-tech industries, thereby exerting strategic pressure on Europe [14][19]. Group 2: European Union's Position - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU would independently decide its tariff policies and would not join the U.S. in sanctions against China, indicating a shift in the EU's stance [7][21]. - The EU's internal divisions regarding sanctions are influenced by the varying needs of member states, with industrial powers like Germany and France being particularly concerned about rare earth supply shortages [23][25]. - The EU is exploring partnerships with China to establish rare earth processing joint ventures, contrasting with the U.S. strategy of complete decoupling [27]. Group 3: Implications for Rare Earth Supply Chain - China controls over 90% of the global refined rare earth production, making it a critical player in the supply chain for various industries, including automotive and defense [14][19]. - The potential disruption of rare earth supplies could severely impact European industries, particularly in electric vehicle production and military applications [16][19]. - The EU's goal to process 40% of critical raw materials domestically by 2030 is currently far from being met, with only 20% processed locally [16].

Core Points - Poland's Prime Minister Tusk has announced the intention to invoke NATO's Article 4 following alleged incursions of Russian drones into Polish airspace, labeling it an "act of aggression" [1] - A total of 19 drones reportedly violated Polish airspace, with some being shot down, prompting NATO's internal consultation process which could lead to collective action [1][2] - The incident is seen as a significant escalation in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about a potential direct confrontation between Russia and NATO [2] Summary by Sections NATO Article 4 Invocation - Tusk's request to activate NATO's Article 4 indicates a serious threat to Poland's territorial integrity and security, which could lead to collective defense discussions among NATO members [1] - The invocation of Article 4 has occurred seven times previously, including during the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1] Incident Details - The drones reportedly threatened a Polish city located approximately 40 miles from the Ukrainian border, marking a notable scale of incursion [2] - NATO's response included the activation of Germany's Patriot missile system and the deployment of an Italian AWACS aircraft, highlighting the alliance's readiness to address threats [1][2] Russian Response - Russia's Defense Ministry stated it does not intend to target Poland and claimed that the drones that entered Polish airspace were not launched from Russian territory [2] - Russian officials suggested that the drones were likely from Ukraine, as Poland has not provided evidence linking the drones to Russia [2][3] Ukrainian Perspective - Ukraine has been actively promoting the narrative of the threat posed by Russian drones, seeking to encourage NATO's direct involvement in the conflict [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky noted the presence of eight drones and emphasized the need for a more integrated NATO air defense system to protect against such incursions [5] Political Reactions - U.S. lawmakers, particularly hawkish members, have called for immediate sanctions against Russia in response to the drone incursions, framing it as an act of war [5]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the U.S. is strategically differentiating its approach towards India and China, particularly in the context of tariffs and sanctions related to Russian oil imports [1][3][19] - U.S. Vice President Vance indicated that the U.S. is not imposing similar sanctions on China as it has on India due to the high existing tariffs on China and the need for negotiation to end the trade war [5][11][12] - The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China complicates the imposition of sanctions, as both countries rely on each other for various goods and services, making such actions potentially self-damaging for the U.S. [6][10][11] Group 2 - The U.S. has recently canceled 91% of the tariffs imposed during the trade war, highlighting the economic damage both countries have suffered [7] - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly in states like Iowa, is heavily reliant on the Chinese market for exports, indicating that any sanctions could lead to significant economic repercussions [7][8] - The U.S. is using tariffs on India as a strategic tool to pressure India into shifting its military procurement from Russia to the U.S., given India's heavy reliance on Russian arms [15][19] Group 3 - The article discusses India's response to U.S. tariffs, including efforts to settle oil transactions in rupees and plans to resell refined Russian oil to Europe, showcasing India's attempts to navigate the geopolitical landscape [21] - The U.S. is perceived to be selectively enforcing sanctions, focusing on India while ignoring larger Russian oil trade with Europe, which raises questions about the fairness of U.S. actions [21][15] - The overall dynamic reflects a broader geopolitical struggle where the U.S. seeks to balance its relationships with both India and China while managing its own economic interests [19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].

1. 乌克兰空军：俄罗斯在夜间发射了450架无人机和导弹。 金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（7月22日） 冲突情况： 其他情况： 1. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基：法国公司将开始在乌克兰生产无人机。 2. 乌克兰国防部长：乌克兰需要6亿美元来弥补今年的国防采购缺口。 3. 据俄新社：根据普京的法令，来自外国港口的船只在与俄罗斯联邦安全局达成协议后，将允许进入俄 罗斯海港。 2. 市场消息：俄罗斯使用弹道导弹、巡航导弹、匕首导弹和无人机对基辅发动袭击，导致一座购物中 心、一座地铁站和多座建筑物受损。 3. 俄罗斯国防部：俄罗斯防空系统击落了乌克兰武装部队的一枚海马斯系统炮弹和397架乌克兰武装部 队飞机型号的无人机。 4. 俄罗斯莫斯科市长：国防部防空部队击落了一架朝莫斯科飞来的无人机。专家正在残骸坠落现场开展 工作。 和谈情况： 1. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基：提议在土耳其举行与俄罗斯的新一轮会谈。 2. 塔斯社：俄罗斯与乌克兰可能于7月24日至25日在土耳其举行会谈。 3. 克里姆林宫：（关于乌克兰会谈）俄方与乌方提交的两份备忘录草案立场截然相反，因此仍有大量工 作要做。我们支持进行第三轮俄乌会谈。 4. 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Germany are nearing an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, specifically involving the provision of two Patriot missile systems to Kyiv [1] Group 1 - The agreement between the US and Germany signifies a collaborative effort to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities against potential threats [1] - The provision of Patriot missile systems indicates a strategic move to bolster Ukraine's air defense infrastructure [1]

Group 1 - The core argument is that U.S. military aid to Ukraine is a profitable business for the American military-industrial complex, with most funds eventually returning to the U.S. [1][3] - Since February 2022, the U.S. has allocated approximately $182.8 billion in aid to Ukraine, with actual payments around $84 billion, and 90% of this money flows back to the U.S. [1][3] - The "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative" allows Ukraine to directly contract with U.S. defense companies, leading to significant profits for these firms and job creation in various congressional districts [3][5] Group 2 - The "Presidential Drawdown Authority" (PDA) enables the U.S. president to transfer weapons from stockpiles to Ukraine, which clears inventory and creates new orders for defense contractors [6] - For instance, the U.S. provided "Stinger" missiles from its inventory, which had not been produced for over 20 years, and subsequently signed a $624.6 million contract to restart production [6] - The ongoing crisis is seen as a financial boon for U.S. defense companies, with increasing demand for military equipment from NATO countries, further enhancing the profitability of U.S. arms sales [7][9] Group 3 - The cost of manufacturing a Patriot missile system is approximately $1 billion, with individual missiles costing around $3.7 million [8] - The longer the conflict persists, the more financial gain the U.S. military-industrial complex realizes, as the demand for arms continues to rise [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Europe may face large-scale military conflict with Russia before 2030, as countries like France, Germany, and the UK are nearing their limits of tolerance towards Russian actions [2] - France's strategic assessment suggests that European nations must unite to address the challenges posed by Russia, indicating a potential shift in military strategy [2] - There are doubts within French media regarding whether France genuinely desires to engage in war with Russia, with analyses suggesting that the Macron government is more focused on financial and international influence rather than military confrontation [2] Group 2 - Germany's position includes a significant investment in the "Patriot" missile system, estimated to cost around one billion dollars, reflecting its commitment to defense and support for Ukraine as a protective measure for itself [2] - German politicians view aiding Ukraine as a means to safeguard Germany, suggesting a strategy of allowing Slavic nations to exhaust each other to protect national interests [2] - The article raises questions about the likelihood of direct military engagement between European nations and Russia, particularly if Eastern European countries were to commit troops to Ukraine [2] Group 3 - From Russia's perspective, there is no intention to invade other NATO member states, implying that the concerns of France and other nations may be somewhat unfounded [3] - The potential for war in Europe raises alarms, with the possibility of the United States becoming involved again, which could lead to a catastrophic scenario akin to World War III [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Prime Minister of Bahrain has stated that there are no plans to transfer the Patriot missile system to Ukraine [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects Bahrain's current military strategy and its position regarding international military support [1]