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中国期货每日简报-20250822
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 03:25
Investment consulting business qualification:CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/08/22 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No:F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.:Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform:https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The ASA has called on Trump to reach an agreement with China. Futures Pric ...
乙二醇:政策对基本面影响较小,中期仍旧承压
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:45
专题报告 2025-08-22 乙二醇:政策对基本面影响较小,中期仍旧承压 报告要点: 近期乙二醇行业有较多供给端政策对情绪上产生影响,但从基本面的角度看对于行业产能过剩 以及进口端的影响极小,反而是下游需求端装置的出清存在利空压力,因此政策对于乙二醇行 业的影响情绪大于实质。从中期的角度看,随着国内外负荷提升,乙二醇将进入累库周期,估 值高位承压。短期节奏上看,近期到港量偏少,港口库存在短期还未进入累库阶段,叠加政策 刺激情绪对乙二醇有一定支撑,需等待到港量上升后,考虑逢高空配的机会。 从业资格号:F03097315 交易咨询号:Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 马桂炎(联系人) 能化研究员 从业资格号:F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 能化研究员 近期工信部等部门出台关于开展石化化工行业老旧装置摸底评估通知,对化工行业 超过 20 年运行装置进行摸排,若后续存在出清政策的落实,预期会缓解化工行业 过剩产能的现状。 但对于乙二醇行业而言,整体老装置占比不多,运行超过 20 年的装置有 141.2 万 吨产能,其中燕山石化、天 ...
特朗普顶不住了,深夜发布“求助信息”,希望中国能出手帮帮美国
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 03:59
比起关税战输给中国,特朗普现在最发愁的一件事,就是之前中国少有依赖美国的一笔生意,好像要被别人抢走了。 据环球网报道,最近,在中美达成一致,同意冻结两国部分关税之际,特朗普在社交媒体上,发布了一则"求助信息",希望中国能将美国大豆的 订单量提高三倍。 数据显示,在2016年的时候,美国几乎占据着中国进口大豆的半壁江山,市场份额一度超过4成,但随着美国近年来不断遏制中国的发展,情况开 始急转直下。 一开始,美方还在嘴硬,声称自家大豆的出口量不降反增,国内供应一点都不紧张,结果特朗普的这番喊话,等于撕开了美国的遮羞布。 特朗普深夜发布求助信息 美国大豆在华份额大幅缩减 没错,在减少对美国大豆的进口之后,巴西立刻找中方商量,提高巴西大豆对华的出口量,目前,巴西大豆已经占据了7成中国市场,而美国大豆 只剩下两成,并且还在不断减少。 跟美国相比,巴西要可信得多,卢拉作为中国人的老朋友,重新上台之后积极深化中巴关系,再加上巴西大豆的产量傲视全球,完全能够满足中 国的需求,给美国大豆全挤走都没问题。 而且,卢拉的胃口可不止大豆,之前400多家美国牛肉企业对华的出口资质到期,而中方迟迟没有续约,就让巴西嗅到了机会。 在今年4 ...
对二甲苯:原油反弹,需求改善,单边偏强,PTA:成本有支撑,短期偏强,MEG:海外供应存收缩预期,短期偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is rated as "1", indicating a "slightly strong" outlook [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: With a significant reduction in overnight crude oil inventories and a strong rebound in oil prices, the short - term downside space for PX's unilateral price may be limited. Supported by cost and with improved demand expectations, and a tight supply - demand pattern, the unilateral price of PX is expected to rebound. For the spread, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spread. The PX - naphtha valuation is at a moderately high level, with a tight supply - demand pattern in September and downward pressure on PXN after the 01 contract [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be held. With an improvement in terminal textile and clothing demand and a bottom - up rebound in polyester operating rates, the unilateral price of PTA is strong. The price and basis strengthened yesterday, and the downstream's willingness to hold goods increased [7]. - MEG: With a decrease in imports and arrivals and marginal destocking, the unilateral price of MEG is strong. The reduction of naphtha cracking capacity by the South Korean petrochemical group has disrupted the market sentiment of olefin - related products. Domestically, plants are operating at full capacity, imports are low, inventories are decreasing, and polyester operating rates are rising. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained. In the long - term, the supply pressure of new plants in the 01 contract will limit the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On the 20th, PX prices increased, with two October Asian spot transactions at $839 and $838, and one November Asian spot at $836. The PX valuation on the 20th was $837/ton, up $2 from the 19th. There were concerns about weak PX spot prices due to over - capacity in China, but hopes are placed on winter demand for polyester clothing [2][3]. - PTA: On the 20th, the PTA spot price remained at 4,690 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 2 [5]. - MEG: South Korean petrochemical companies will cut capacity and restructure. A 750,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Malaysia has restarted, and there were tender transactions on the 20th [5]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 20th declined overall, with individual differences. The average sales volume was estimated to be slightly below 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were generally average, with an average sales volume of 57% as of 3:00 pm [5][6]. Futures and Spot Data | Product | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6,844 | 6774 | 1.03% | $838/ton | $2.83 | 255.5 | 2.5 | | PTA | 4,778 | 44 | 0.93% | 4,686 yuan/ton | - 4 | 197.31 | - 10.67 | | MEG | 4,477 | 53 | 1.20% | 4,502 yuan/ton | 47 | - | - | | PF | 6,504 | 72 | 1.12% | - | - | - | - | | SC | 482.8 | - 1.4 | - 0.29% | - | - | - | - |
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250821
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:52
Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The chemical industry is undergoing adjustments to address over - capacity. The futures market of polyolefins shows a weak trend with cautious trading. The supply - side pressure of PP is increasing as more devices restart, while the supply of PE is relatively neutral. The downstream consumption shows some improvement but has a weaker outlook compared to the same period last year. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the demand improvement and inventory reduction in the second half of the month [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The prices of plastic and PP futures contracts generally rose. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.40%) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The futures market remained weak, with cautious trading. Traders offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly purchased at low prices. The upstream device operating rate continued to increase. The supply - side pressure of PP increased due to the restart of devices, and the supply of PE was relatively neutral. The downstream operating rates of some industries increased, but the peak - season expectations were weaker than last year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 78.5 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 79.5 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7130 - 7430 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6380 - 6400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some restarted devices led to sufficient supply, and producers slightly lowered prices to promote sales [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6880 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6830 - 7080 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - There are also some figures related to inventory, such as two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [9].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:53
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventory has increased significantly, with high imports and actual inventory. The supply in the inland region is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can be supported after the supply in the inland region returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation correction [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the coal - chemical industry is reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for the time being. The non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance in August has decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotation. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is relatively large, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - upstream has slowed down. The northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the daily change in power coal futures was 0, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 27, the South China spot price decreased by 23, the Lunan discounted price remained unchanged, the Southwest discounted price decreased by 35, the Hebei discounted price remained unchanged, the Northwest discounted price remained unchanged, the CFR China price remained unchanged, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 5, and the main contract basis and the MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, the North China LL price decreased by 20, the East China LL price remained unchanged, the East China LD price remained unchanged, the East China HD price remained unchanged, the LL US dollar price remained unchanged, the LL US Gulf price remained unchanged, the import profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 27, the basis remained unchanged, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 379 [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Shandong propylene price remained unchanged, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained unchanged, the East China PP price decreased by 35, the North China PP price decreased by 20, the Shandong powder price remained unchanged, the East China copolymer price decreased by 4, the PP US dollar price remained unchanged, the PP US Gulf price remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 32, the basis increased by 10, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1180 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained unchanged, the Shandong caustic soda price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased by 40, the ethylene - based East China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained unchanged, the import US dollar price (CFR China) remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained unchanged, the North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained unchanged [7].
农产品日报-20250818
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 11:22
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution (★☆☆)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Analysis Unclear**: Soybean, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans, and dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. However, considering the possible timing of Australian rapeseed imports, there may be a short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6]. - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. - **Live Hogs**: Supply pressure will keep live hog prices weak in the second half of the year. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8]. - **Eggs**: High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean - Last week, soybean prices fluctuated greatly due to the influence of surrounding varieties and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed. However, due to weak fundamentals, prices quickly fell after a short - term rise. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is shrinking. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts [2] Soybean Meal - USDA's August report was bullish for US soybeans. In the next two weeks, dry conditions in the US may challenge new - season soybean growth. China's soybean supply is sufficient in the short - term but uncertain in the long - term. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors can enter on pullbacks [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Indonesian policies and market expectations have driven up palm oil prices. The strength of the palm oil market is mainly driven by the Indonesian market. The relative valuation of palm oil is not low. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility or correction, but in the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market was pressured by import expectations last week. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be good. There is a possibility that Australian rapeseed will enter the Chinese market, but it is uncertain when. The rapeseed futures prices may rebound in the short - term, and a short - term long strategy is advisable [6] Corn - As of August 18th, the low - volume trading of imported corn auctions has affected market expectations. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are likely to remain weak. The 11 - contract has rebounded and then fallen, and industrial players are advised to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - High production capacity has pressured egg prices. In the short - term, there is a risk of profit - taking by short - selling funds, and the market is in a contango situation [9]
依法严肃查处“新三样”领域偷骗税等违法行为 以税收公平助力反“内卷”和全国统一大市场建设
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-18 07:53
Group 1 - The core issue is the misuse of tax incentives by some entities in the "New Three Samples" sector, which undermines high-quality development and fair competition [1][2] - Some companies are engaging in tax evasion through fraudulent practices such as issuing false invoices and overstating expenses, which distorts market mechanisms and harms compliant businesses [1][2] - The government emphasizes the need for strict enforcement against tax fraud to ensure that tax benefits reach companies focused on innovation and quality improvement [2][3] Group 2 - There is a call for optimizing the policy framework to prevent overcapacity and "involution" competition, promoting sustainable high-quality development in the "New Three Samples" industry [3] - Adjustments to fiscal subsidy standards and tax incentive policies are necessary to shift the industry focus from being policy-driven to innovation-driven [3] - Legal compliance in tax payments is highlighted as a fundamental requirement for businesses to ensure long-term stability and growth in the "New Three Samples" sector [3]
PP:趋势偏弱,但低位追空要谨慎
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The PP trend is weak, but one should be cautious when short - selling at low levels. The cost side has been weak recently, and the demand side lacks obvious highlights. The market terminal suffers from over - capacity and great foreign trade uncertainties, leading to a weakening of export products. The domestic rigid - demand start - up has slightly increased, with active low - level procurement and cautious high - level procurement. The supply pressure has further increased due to profit repair from cost reduction and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and one should be vigilant at the annual low levels, especially considering the recent strengthening of the monthly spread driving market fluctuations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 7084, with a daily decline of 0.14%. The trading volume was 175,405, and the open interest increased by 12,810. The basis of the 01 contract was - 104 (compared with - 85 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 4 (compared with - 2 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton (6920 - 7070 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 6980 - 7110 yuan/ton (7000 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 6920 - 7130 yuan/ton (6930 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - Last Friday, the domestic PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weak intraday futures trading dragged down the spot market sentiment. Traders were generally in a wait - and - see mood. Coupled with the partial reduction of upstream petrochemical factory prices, the offers of traders in the market were mainly weakly adjusted. Near the weekend, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market was average, and their willingness to take delivery was not strong, resulting in a dull market transaction [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The cost side has been continuously weak, and the demand side has no obvious highlights. The market terminal is restricted by over - capacity and faces great foreign trade uncertainties, leading to a weakening of export products. The domestic rigid - demand start - up has slightly increased. The market has been characterized by active low - level procurement and cautious high - level procurement throughout the year. On the supply side, the supply pressure has further increased due to profit repair from cost reduction and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and one should be vigilant at the annual low levels, especially considering the recent strengthening of the monthly spread driving market fluctuations [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, weakly - weak, neutral, weakly - strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]
聚烯烃:趋势仍有压力,但低位追空要谨慎
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend of polyolefins is still under pressure, but short - selling at low levels requires caution. For polypropylene, the trend is weak, with potential supply increases and cost uncertainties. For polyethylene, it is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [1][6][7][10]. - The core driver is the negative feedback in the market driven by the collapse of the cost side. Although the trend is weak, short - selling at low levels should be done with caution in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary 3.1.1 Polypropylene - This week, China's polypropylene production was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase from last week and a 19.21% increase from the same period last year. Next week, the average capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 77.8% [6]. - The demand for polypropylene products is expected to rise with the approaching peak season. However, the current cost side is weak, the demand side lacks highlights, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market is expected to be volatile and weak, with the upper pressure at 7200 - 7300 and the lower support at 6800 - 6900. The recommended strategies are to buy 09 and sell 01 in the inter - period, and no cross - variety strategy is recommended for now [6][7][8]. 3.1.2 Polyethylene - China's polyethylene production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The demand is in the off - season, with weak terminal orders. The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations, with the 09 contract having an upper pressure of 7400 and a lower support of 7100 - 7200. No inter - period or cross - variety strategy is recommended [10]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period was 77.91%, a 0.60% increase. Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 81.53%, a 1.96% increase [24]. - In August, there are still some large - scale maintenance plans, but new production capacity and restarts have led to an increase in production. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 520.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 11.7% [22][26][28]. - The production inventory and trader inventory have decreased. The total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 82.74 tons, a 3.41% decrease from the previous period [30][34]. 3.2.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polypropylene have different performances. The BOPP industry has increased its start - up rate, order days, and has a high - level finished product inventory, but its profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape mother roll industry has a flat start - up rate but an increase in order days. The plastic weaving industry has a flat start - up rate and order days. The non - woven fabric industry has an increased start - up rate and a moderately high finished product inventory. The CPP industry has increased its start - up rate and order days [43][51][53][58][60]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Supply - The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises in China was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The production this week was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase from last week. The expected maintenance loss in August will decrease compared to July. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [10][70][71][72]. - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased. The sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 44.45 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period [74][77]. 3.3.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polyethylene are in the off - season. The agricultural film industry has an increased start - up rate but a decrease in order days. The packaging film industry has a decreased start - up rate and order days. The pipe and hollow industries have a lower start - up rate compared to the same period last year [86][87][88].