◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 乐观氛围主导，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原材料支撑走强，焦炭震荡上行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 940.0 ...

2025年上半年的预亏，可以预判，是石大胜华扩产的后遗症。 石大胜华过去的产能建设步子迈得较大。2022年，石大胜华筹划定增，拟募资不超过45亿元进行扩产。 监管三次问询后，公司取消了使用募资建设山东东营以及武汉合计50万吨电解液项目，但公司采取使用 自有资金等途径还是完成了建设。 值得一提的是，7月7日，上述定增方案再度调整，募资缩水至10亿元。 募资未达预期，石大胜华的财务承压。截至2025年一季度末，公司资产负债率上升至58.15%，期末有 息负债29.27亿元，是货币资金的3.14倍。 2025年上半年预计盈转亏 执着于扩产，电解液溶剂龙头石大胜华（603026）(603026.SH)的后遗症显现。 近期，石大胜华发布业绩预告，公司预计2025年上半年归母净利润亏损5200万元到6000万元。 公司解释，亏损的主要原因有两个，一个是扩产项目尚未达产，固定费用偏高，另一个是产品价格下 降。 在2024年年报中，石大胜华表示，电解液、碳酸酯市场供应依然过剩。 石大胜华预计上半年出现经营性亏损。 根据业绩预告，经财务部门初步测算，2025年上半年，石大胜华预计归母净利润亏损5200万元到6000万 元，与上 ...

当米其林餐厅的包间不再需要提前半月预订，商务宴请的觥筹交错被家庭小聚的轻声笑语取代，从人均过千的高端餐厅到人均百元的连锁品牌，依赖政商 宴请的经营模式受到冲击，行业正面临从客群结构到运营逻辑的转型。餐企们或收缩战线，或苦练内功，试图在"高成本、低客流"的夹缝中找到穿越周期 的密码。 "干了20多年餐饮，现在突然不会干了。"郑拓在一线城市主理一家人均消费过千元的米其林餐厅，尽管凭借古朴清雅的环境和多元化客群保持相对稳定的 运营，但不少同行的处境令他颇为感慨。"很多特别认真经营的朋友，尤其开连锁餐饮的，这两年赔得一塌糊涂，甚至有的成为失信人。" 这场寒流并非局部现象。以杨辉经营的中高端徽菜连锁品牌为例，其6月以来营收整体下滑15%-20%，他向搜狐美食透露，由于安徽在5月出现两起违规吃 喝事件，"后面就收得特别紧"；北京商务宴请（尤其是政商场景）大幅缩减，"区域差异达10个百分点"，部分门店包间使用率不足三成。 从厨三十年的江适原将餐厅定位中高档的精致川菜，连续多年斩获米其林、黑珍珠荣誉，如今餐厅客单价已从人均300-500元降至150-200元。政务客 群"基本消失"，私人企业消费也普遍降级。"人均500元成了 ...

Group 1: PPI Trends - In June, the PPI decline expanded to 3.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from May, marking the lowest level since July 2023[6] - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by the midstream sector, with midstream raw material processing PPI dropping to -5.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall decline[10] - The capacity utilization rate in the raw material processing industry was significantly below the historical 50th percentile in Q1 2025, indicating potential overcapacity in the sector[10] Group 2: CPI Recovery - In June, the CPI unexpectedly turned positive, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, with both food and non-food CPI increasing by 0.1 percentage points[16] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase, reaching 0.7%, the highest in 14 months, driven mainly by a recovery in consumer goods prices[16] - The recovery in CPI is attributed to three factors: a seasonal rise in vegetable prices, reduced energy drag from international oil prices, and a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices[20] Group 3: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could impact future economic conditions[23] - Despite the CPI's recovery, there remains a risk of a phase-down if short-term factors dissipate, indicating that further support for CPI is needed[21]

【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据土耳其阿纳多卢通讯社等媒体报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间8 日在欧洲议会全体会议上就中欧关系发表讲话时就多个涉华议题表态，在老调重弹所谓"去风险""产能 过剩"等旧论调的同时，她也明确表示，欧盟不愿与中国脱钩，并准备与中国建立一种更加"平衡"且"稳 定"的关系。 在香港《南华早报》看来，冯德莱恩对中国提出"迄今为止最严厉抨击"。然而这类措辞强硬、集中叙事 的话题内容如今听来并不新鲜，中方此前已多次就类似说辞逐一分析、作出回击。 冯德莱恩在讲话中没有脱离以往"去风险"的老论调，声称欧盟处理对华关系的方法将是"去风险"；在贸 易问题上，冯德莱恩则继续渲染所谓"产能过剩"论，并拿补贴事项制造议题发起指责；在地缘政治问题 上，冯德莱恩则借俄乌冲突说事，渲染所谓"中国对俄支持加剧欧洲不稳定和不安全"。 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆今年6月在回应冯德莱恩涉华言论也明确表示，建交50年来，中欧合作成果丰 硕，为双方带来了实实在在的利益。中国坚持高水平对外开放，将持续为欧洲企业提供广阔市场和发展 机遇。中方愿同欧方加强沟通协调，妥善处理贸易分歧，实现共赢和共同发展。同时，中方坚决反对任 何损害中 ...

摩根大通在最新研报指出，中国政府治理产能过剩的政策若执行得当，将对股市和全球贸易产生积极影响。中国行业龙头企业尤其是新能源汽车和房地产相关公司，有望从更强的定价能力、更高的收入市场份额和更健康的利润率中受益。目前所有产能过剩行业的股价都低于2021年峰值，其中电池、光伏、水泥、钢铁和化工行业股价回调跌幅超过50%。MSCI中国指数数据显示，汽车、化工、建材以及金属和采矿相关企业有望在产能收紧后获得更好的净利润率。 #反内卷None (@None):None ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in its photovoltaic business, with a notable decline in revenue and profitability, particularly in solar cell backsheet products, which have seen a drastic drop in sales and margins due to increased market competition and price reductions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.485 billion yuan, a nearly 30% decrease year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 62 million yuan, marking two consecutive years of losses [1][2]. - The revenue from solar cell backsheet products plummeted by 76%, with a gross margin dropping by 20 percentage points to -18.13% [1][2]. Inventory and Impairment - As of June 30, 2025, the company identified further impairment signs in its photovoltaic-related inventory, estimating a potential impairment amount not exceeding 3 million yuan, which will be disclosed in the 2025 semi-annual report [1][5]. - The ending inventory balance stood at 308 million yuan, with the provision for inventory impairment increasing from 5.18% at the beginning of the period to 5.58% at the end [1][5]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The solar photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 40% drop in component bidding prices and a 33.9% decrease in export value for photovoltaic products [2][3]. - The market for solar cell backsheet products is shrinking, with the share of single-glass components using these products dropping from 60% to 15% [2][3]. Customer and Revenue Analysis - The company’s main customers in the photovoltaic sector have also reported significant declines in revenue and profits, impacting the company's sales [3][4]. - The company operates on a direct transaction model with photovoltaic module manufacturers, which has been adversely affected by the overall market conditions [3][4]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The cost structure for solar cell backsheet products shows that over 70% of costs are attributed to materials, with transportation costs increasing due to geographical factors, adding approximately 0.4 yuan per square meter compared to competitors [5][6]. - The average selling price of solar cell backsheet products has decreased by 20% year-on-year, further squeezing margins [5][6]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to the challenging market environment, the company is optimizing its product structure by ceasing production of unprofitable solar cell backsheet products and actively developing new products [5][6]. - The company is also expanding into new business areas, including high-performance separation membranes, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe price competition, leading to significant losses for companies, prompting a call for "anti-involution" measures to ensure sustainable development and product quality improvement [1][3][10]. Industry Overview - The Central Economic Committee has mandated the regulation of low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [1][10]. - The photovoltaic sector has seen a strong rebound in stock prices since early July, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy experiencing significant gains [1]. Financial Performance - Longi Green Energy reported a revenue of 82.58 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 36.23%, with losses exceeding 8.6 billion yuan, marking a staggering drop of 180.15% [3][6]. - The gross margin for Longi's silicon wafer and rod segments was reported at -14.31%, a decline of 30.19%, while the module and battery segments had a gross margin of only 6.27%, down 12.11% [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to excessive competition and price drops that have resulted in many companies operating at a loss [3][7]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has significantly decreased, with a 24% drop for 2.0mm glass and an 18% drop for 3.2mm glass expected in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. Production Adjustments - In response to the ongoing price competition, major photovoltaic glass manufacturers have agreed to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10]. - Many silicon wafer manufacturers are also planning to cut their operating rates by approximately 40% to mitigate losses and stabilize prices [10]. Regulatory Response - The manufacturing sector's recent meetings have emphasized the need for comprehensive governance of low-price competition and the promotion of product quality to achieve healthy and sustainable industry growth [1][10].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增产压力逐渐上升，短期旺季存支撑。7 月 6 日，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克 | | 原油 | 盘整 | 等 8 个 OPEC+国家计划于 8 月份增产 54.8 万桶/日；从供需基本面看， | | | | OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压 | | | | 力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【500-520】 | | | | 跟随成本端油价盘整。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承压；下游化工需求 | | LPG | 盘整 | 有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均下降。策略： | | | | 走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。PG【4150-4250】 | | | | 社会库存继续累库，下游淡季成交偏弱，远期进口货源增加，华北基差为 -47（环比-5）。近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解， | | L | 空头盘整 | 预计本周产量降至 60.5 万吨。需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库 | | ...

当同龄人在朋友圈晒基金收益时，大学生小曾的股票账户单月亏损达到8万元，账户收益率从58%跌至-59%。在所持个股的连续跌停中，小曾第一次读出K 线图背后的残酷法则。 近两年来，在政策助力与行情推动下，新股民蜂拥开户，"跑步"入市。很多95后、00后的Z世代年轻人，成为入新股民。 他们当中，除了小曾，还有在证券公司实习时初涉股市的冉冉，有从自诩"华尔街之狼"到回归学术的小李，有从莽撞交易到寻求在不确定中锚定自己的李 岩…… 就"Z世代股票投资与市场认知"的话题，我们在95后、00后的投资者之间开展问卷调查。回收的286份有效问卷显示，有72%的年轻人接触股票投资仅有一年 左右的时间。 平安证券与胡润研究院联合发布的2025中国金融市场投资者洞见白皮书显示，Z世代投资者大量涌入，使得投资者结构发生了显著变化。30岁以下的投资者 的占比达到30%，比2024年9月24日之前翻了倍。 "Z世代"不再是金融市场的"局外人"。这些怀揣零花钱试水、在社交平台获取资讯的年轻投资者，带着"赚第一桶金"的梦闯入市场，却在宏观微观突变、个 股陷阱和行情震动中体味欣喜、焦虑、幻灭、顿悟、蜕变……用真金白银换来一堂堂投资认知课。 从过 ...