【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。本周社会库存小 幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策， ...

来源：《理财周刊》 据上海证券交易所披露信息，安徽林平循环发展股份有限公司（下称"林平发展"）已于11月7日完成问询函回复工作。该 公司的上市申请已于6月25日获得受理，并在7月23日正式进入问询环节。 根据其招股书披露内容，林平发展本次IPO拟募集资金12亿元，其中5亿元将投入年产90万吨绿色环保智能制造新材料项 目（二期）建设，剩余7亿元则用于年产60万吨生物基纤维绿色智能制造新材料项目的推进。 作为一家以瓦楞纸、箱板纸生产为核心业务的高新技术企业，林平发展当的营收已连续两年出现下滑，产品单价也持续 处于下行态势；与此同时，税收优惠在公司净利润中的占比已飙升至80.58%。 在此情况下，公司的IPO进程能否顺利推进，未来业绩是否将持续面临压力，已成为监管机构与市场各方共同聚焦的核心 问题。 业绩起伏，稳定性成疑 林平发展是一家整合废纸利用、热电联产与绿色造纸业务的资源综合利用企业。 根据招股书披露的信息，2022年至2024年及2025年上半年（以下简称"报告期"），公司营业收入分别实现28.79亿元、 28.00亿元、24.85亿元和12.24亿元，对应净利润为1.54亿元、2.12亿元、1.53亿元及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. Factors contributing to this include a decrease in PVC and downstream开工率, high social inventory, ongoing real - estate adjustments, upcoming Indian anti - dumping taxes, high futures warehouse receipts, and falling prices of coking coal and coke suppressing market sentiment [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 slightly declined and remains at a low level. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC alleviated concerns about exports, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious [1]. - From January to October 2025, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. Investment, new construction, and completion areas have significant year - on - year declines, and the growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further dropped. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC开工率 is higher than in previous years. New production capacities such as Tianjin Bohua are in operation, and some enterprises' maintenance is about to end [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4416 yuan/ton, a high of 4490 yuan/ton, and closed at 4456 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 1.15% decline and a decrease of 25423 hands in positions to 1432396 hands [2]. - On November 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4456 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 yuan/ton, strengthening by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC开工率 to decline. New production capacities like Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, and Qingdao Gulf are in production [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate sector is still in adjustment. From January to October 2025, real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a 6.8% decrease. The sales volume was 6901.7 billion yuan, a 9.6% decrease. New construction and completion areas also decreased significantly. As of November 16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although it decreased slightly, it is still high [6].

Core Viewpoint - Huaheng Biological has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an "A+H" dual listing, with Huatai International as the sole sponsor. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of bio-based products, holding the largest global market share for L-alanine and L-valine as of 2024. However, it faces significant challenges including declining product prices, sharply reduced profit margins, and intensified industry competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Huaheng Biological's revenue is projected to grow from 1.419 billion to 2.178 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trend. However, net profit is expected to drop from 319 million yuan in 2022 to 185 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 58.67%. In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 2.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.53%, but net profit still fell by 5.1% to 159 million yuan [2][3]. - The company's gross margin has significantly decreased from 40.4% in 2023 to 24.8% in 2024, and further down to 23.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly halving from its peak [2][3]. Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The decline in profitability is attributed to a comprehensive drop in market prices across nearly all product lines. For instance, the average price of amino acid products has fallen from 18,900 yuan per ton in 2022 to 15,000 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, a decrease of over 20%. Specifically, the price of L-alanine dropped from 35,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2025 to 20,000 yuan per ton by mid-year, a decline of approximately 42.86% [3][4]. Supply and Demand Changes - The market's supply-demand dynamics have shifted significantly, with many sub-markets transitioning from high growth to stagnation. For example, the compound annual growth rate for valine is expected to drop from 60.2% (2020-2024) to 8.6% (2024-2030) and further to 3.4% (2030-2035). The inositol market is projected to experience nearly stagnant growth during the same period [4][5]. - The oversupply situation is exacerbated by rapid capacity expansion driven by high previous profits, alongside a slowdown in downstream demand due to macroeconomic factors. This has led to increased price competition [4][5]. Industry Competition and Strategic Shifts - Other companies in the industry are also expanding capacity, with significant new production planned for L-valine by competitors such as Yipin Biological and Jinhai Biological, which will further intensify competition [5][6]. - In response to the fierce competition in its core business, Huaheng Biological is attempting to pivot towards high-value beauty and personal care ingredients. However, this transition faces challenges due to the importance of patent barriers, brand effects, and channel control, areas where the company currently lacks strength [6][7].

Group 1: Core Insights - European chemical companies reported significant profit declines and even net losses in Q3, with sales also plummeting due to overcapacity, price drops, and currency fluctuations [1] - BASF's Q3 profits and sales both fell, with a report indicating that profit margins are under pressure and showing no signs of improvement, as nearly all indicators are at cyclical lows [1] - Bayer continued to report net losses in Q3, but adjusted EBITDA increased by 21% year-on-year to €1.51 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, primarily driven by its crop science business [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Evonik transitioned from profit to a net loss of €106 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA down 22% year-on-year to €448 million, and revenue decreased by 12% to €3.4 billion [2] - Covestro faced a loss of €150 million due to ongoing plant shutdowns, with Q3 sales down 12% and EBITDA guidance for the year lowered to €700 million to €800 million [2] - AkzoNobel reported a Q3 adjusted EBITDA of €385 million, below expectations, and lowered its annual profit guidance, anticipating an adjusted EBITDA of €1.48 billion for 2025 [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The chemical industry is facing a challenging market environment with persistent price pressures and declining demand, leading to significant adjustments in profit forecasts across multiple companies [1][2][3] - Arkema lowered its full-year EBITDA guidance to €1.25 billion to €1.3 billion due to macroeconomic pressures and weaker-than-expected demand in the U.S. [3] - Lanxess experienced a 16.3% year-on-year decline in sales in Q3, with varying performance across its business segments, highlighting the impact of market pressures on profitability [3]

21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 成都报道 八年入账两千亿后，全国最大原酒商率先宣布了下一个五年规划。 11月18日下午，川酒集团"十五五"战略发布暨2025品牌大会上，川酒集团党委书记、董事长曹勇透露 了"十五五"目标：集团力争到2030年实现营收450亿元、利税30亿元，迈入中国白酒第一方阵。 明年将迎来"十五五"规划第一年，目前大部分酒企尚未披露未来五年的经营规划。摆在当前大多数酒企 面前的首要问题，是如何应对需求端的下行压力。 川酒集团则在上述大会上披露了未来规划，并高调总结了成立八年来的成绩单——实现产能60万吨、储 能100万吨，年营收从0增长至380亿元、资产规模增长26倍。 "过去八年，川酒集团累计营收近2000亿元，已经发展成在全国有一定影响力的酒业大集团。"曹勇总 结。 川酒集团2024年收入超过380亿元，就体量而言已跻身酒业前列，但在经营效益如盈利能力等方面，依 然还有提升空间。 21世纪经济报道记者了解到，除了巩固中国最大原酒生产商和供应商的地位，川酒集团接下来将重点聚 焦口粮酒、定制酒、散酒业务，向C端要增量。 依靠与名酒差异化发展走到今天，面对下一个行业周期，川酒集团再次选择了新路径。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下调25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少2.24个百分点至78.51%， PVC开工率转而减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小 幅减少，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inverter industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among companies, with some facing substantial profit declines while others report strong growth, largely influenced by varying market conditions domestically and internationally [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Since 2020, global renewable energy installations have surged, benefiting the inverter industry, but recent warnings of "overcapacity" have led to performance declines for some high-growth companies [1]. - In the third quarter, out of 10 listed inverter companies, 6 reported declines in net profit, with 4 experiencing profit halving; conversely, 3 companies, including industry leader Sungrow, saw quarterly growth rates exceeding 100% [1][3]. - The third-quarter reports indicate that while many inverter companies maintained growth in the first three quarters, several experienced declines in revenue and net profit in the third quarter [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The performance divergence is attributed to the contrasting conditions in domestic and international markets, particularly the inventory pressure in the European market affecting companies reliant on overseas sales [2][10]. - The domestic market for large-scale ground-mounted solar power plants has seen a significant increase in installations, with a reported growth of over 357.8% in concentrated solar power installations this year [12]. - The European market has faced a significant decline in demand for household photovoltaic and storage inverters, leading to excess supply and reduced orders from distributors [10][11]. Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - Among the companies reporting declines, Yunneng Technology had the highest net profit decline at 62.75%, while DeYe and Keda saw smaller declines of 36.1% and 16.56%, respectively [3][4]. - Conversely, companies like Sungrow, with a revenue of 177.92 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 147.29%, and Hewei Electric, with a net profit growth of 246.82%, demonstrated strong performance [7][5]. - The companies can be categorized into two groups: those like Jinlang Technology that focus on micro inverters and household storage products primarily for overseas markets, and those like Sungrow that focus on large-scale centralized inverters for domestic ground-mounted power plants [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The inventory destocking cycle in overseas markets is expected to last several months, while the domestic market is anticipated to see a surge in demand for large-scale ground-mounted solar power plants in the fourth quarter [15][16]. - Analysts predict that the performance of companies focusing on centralized inverters will remain strong in the near term, while those reliant on household products may continue to face challenges [15][16].

欧洲化企三季度财报显示，各企业利润大幅下滑甚至出现净亏损，销售额同步暴跌。产能过剩引发的价 格下跌、汇率波动等多重压力，抵消了销量端的微弱改善，市场环境仍极具挑战性。 阿克苏诺贝尔三季度由盈转亏，销售额下降，经调整EBITDA为3.85亿欧元，低于预期的3.98亿欧元， 同比降低2%。公司称，结构性成本控制与精准执行抵消了销量下滑的影响，同时下调了年度盈利指 引，预计2025年经调整EBITDA为14.8亿欧元。 阿科玛考虑到宏观经济压力及美国需求不及预期，将全年EBITDA指引下调至12.5亿至13亿欧元。公司 三季度盈利与销售额下滑，EBITDA同比降24%至3.1亿欧元，仍超过市场预期的3.06亿欧元。 朗盛集团三季度销售额同比下降16.3%，常规业务范围内息税折旧及摊销前利润为1.25亿欧元，同比下 降27.7%。分业务板块看，消费者保护业务表现稳健，息税折旧及摊销前利润同比增长1.4%至7200万欧 元，利润率提升至15.9%；特殊添加剂业务受需求疲软和产能利用率不足影响，利润下滑26.2%；高品 质中间体业务面临亚洲市场价格压力和需求不振双重挑战，利润大幅下滑61.8%。 深陷诉讼的拜耳三季度延续 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：大佑农饲料） 根据生猪屠企的最新调价动作来看，现在基层生猪主流生猪价格已经呈现了震荡偏弱运行的趋势，无论 是生猪的主销区，还是生猪的调出区，南北各地猪价的下行引起了很多养殖户们的热议。 近期生猪市场动态，当前猪价呈现震荡下行的态势，10月份的反弹行情未能持续，11月初价格已出现明 显回落。以下是关键要点分析： 压栏风险：养殖户压栏导致大体重猪积压，若集中出栏可能引发价格踩踏。 农民需警惕的现实问题 11月回落：进入11月后，猪价再次下跌，南北多地价格飘绿。规模化养殖场集中出栏导致短期供应增 加，屠宰企业借机压价。 在需求方面，进入11月份，一方面，鲜品猪肉购销短暂缺乏利好，由于缺乏节日气氛烘托，居民南方腌 腊高峰尚有时日，居民家庭消费略有改善，但是，城市餐饮消费转弱，下游猪肉购销整体不佳，部分屠 宰场白条出厂存在难度，主流屠宰场开工率回落，日均屠宰量也逐步减少，猪肉购销对于猪价支撑转 差； 另一方面，由于生猪均价上移，二次育肥补栏标猪压栏至南方腌腊周期前的窗口期减少，二育情绪谨 慎，大部二育以观望为主，市场抄底意愿降低，标猪承接支撑转弱！ 上涨难持续的原因 产能过剩：能繁母猪存栏量仍高 ...