21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 成都报道 八年入账两千亿后，全国最大原酒商率先宣布了下一个五年规划。 11月18日下午，川酒集团"十五五"战略发布暨2025品牌大会上，川酒集团党委书记、董事长曹勇透露 了"十五五"目标：集团力争到2030年实现营收450亿元、利税30亿元，迈入中国白酒第一方阵。 明年将迎来"十五五"规划第一年，目前大部分酒企尚未披露未来五年的经营规划。摆在当前大多数酒企 面前的首要问题，是如何应对需求端的下行压力。 川酒集团则在上述大会上披露了未来规划，并高调总结了成立八年来的成绩单——实现产能60万吨、储 能100万吨，年营收从0增长至380亿元、资产规模增长26倍。 "过去八年，川酒集团累计营收近2000亿元，已经发展成在全国有一定影响力的酒业大集团。"曹勇总 结。 川酒集团2024年收入超过380亿元，就体量而言已跻身酒业前列，但在经营效益如盈利能力等方面，依 然还有提升空间。 21世纪经济报道记者了解到，除了巩固中国最大原酒生产商和供应商的地位，川酒集团接下来将重点聚 焦口粮酒、定制酒、散酒业务，向C端要增量。 依靠与名酒差异化发展走到今天，面对下一个行业周期，川酒集团再次选择了新路径。 ...

Core Insights - The takeaway from the news is that Jiahe Foods has experienced significant growth in its coffee business due to the recent "takeout war," with a notable increase in orders during May and June, followed by steady growth in July and August, indicating a positive outlook for the brand's growth in the latter half of the year and into next year [1][2] Group 1: Coffee Business Performance - The "takeout war" led to a substantial increase in order volume for both tea and coffee clients, with significant year-on-year growth observed in the coffee segment during May and June [1] - Although growth slowed in July and August as the industry became more rational, the overall trend remains positive, providing support for the company's growth in the second half of the year and into 2024 [1] Group 2: C-end Business Development - The C-end business is currently in an exploratory phase, focusing on coffee e-commerce and oat milk beverage e-commerce, with product categories including coffee, milk tea, and oat milk [1] - C-end revenue is nearing 100 million, indicating rapid growth, and the company places high importance on the development of this segment [1] - Online channels include platforms like Douyin, Tmall, JD, and WeChat stores, while offline efforts involve expanding distributors to CVS, supermarkets, KA, O2O, and snack channels, with revenue structure being evenly split [1] Group 3: Powdered Oil Business Insights - The powdered oil business is expected to be influenced by light milk tea in 2024, with both traditional and light milk tea being key products on menus [2] - By 2025, the impact of light milk tea on traditional milk tea is anticipated to be gradually absorbed, stabilizing the application of powdered oil in traditional milk tea [2] - The takeout war has led to an increase in overall order volume in the tea beverage industry, but it has also significantly impacted the product pricing structure, creating a low-price expectation among consumers, which may lead to a period of adjustment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.38 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 117 million RMB, up 7.53% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing resilience in its B-end business while the C-end segment shows strong growth potential, particularly through new product launches and channel expansion [3]. - The gross margin improved to 34.68% in Q2 2025, an increase of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies [4]. - The company is actively increasing its investment in marketing and R&D to solidify market share and drive long-term growth [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 34.68%, with a net profit margin of 8.21% [4]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at 2.93 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 258 million RMB, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.64 RMB for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.6x [6]. Growth and Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Shandong and Guangxi already in operation, and a new integrated production and R&D base in Shanghai is underway [4]. - The report anticipates continued positive momentum in the second half of 2025, driven by the recovery of the overall dining market and the gradual rollout of new products in the C-end segment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Midea Group demonstrates robust performance with a strong focus on both B-end and C-end business growth, leading to a "buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1][6] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Midea Group reported revenue of 123.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.59 billion, up 15.1% year-on-year [2] C-end Business Analysis - The C-end segment shows accelerated growth with a focus on high-end domestic sales and an increase in overseas OBM (Original Brand Manufacturer) share, achieving a revenue of 167.2 billion in the smart home business for H1 2025, a 13.31% increase year-on-year [3] - The retail sales of Colmo and Toshiba brands surged over 60% year-on-year, with nearly 1,700 Colmo stores established across more than 280 cities by June 2025 [3] B-end Business Analysis - The B-end segment continues to deepen its layout with a revenue of 64.54 billion in H1 2025, reflecting a 20.8% year-on-year growth, and accounting for 25.7% of total revenue, an increase of over 1 percentage point [4] - Key areas such as new energy and industrial technology saw a revenue increase of 28.6%, maintaining a leading position in air conditioning compressor global market share [4] - The smart building technology segment grew by 24.2%, significantly outperforming the industry average, while robotics and automation revenue increased by 8.3% [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - Midea Group's Q2 2025 gross margin was 26.2%, slightly down by 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by business structure and domestic pricing strategies [4] - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was 22.96 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year, indicating strong liquidity with contract liabilities at 38.65 billion [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 43.0 billion, 47.86 billion, and 52.73 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 11.3%, and 10.2% respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 13.2, 11.8, and 10.7 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.651 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.91%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.52% to 233 million yuan [1] - The company experienced a robust growth in its compound seasoning and light cooking solutions, with significant contributions from both direct and online sales channels [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the total revenue was 2.651 billion yuan, with a net profit of 233 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 215 million yuan [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 721 million yuan, with a slight decline in net profit to 59.75 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 669 million yuan, with a net profit of 58.25 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease [1] Product and Sales Analysis - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that compound seasonings generated 1.296 billion yuan (+13.21%), light cooking solutions 1.130 billion yuan (+10.41%), and beverage and dessert ingredients 147 million yuan (+3.00%) [2] - Direct sales accounted for 2.138 billion yuan (+12.35%), while non-direct sales reached 435 million yuan (+6.63%) [2] - Online sales were 808 million yuan (+2.19%), and offline sales were 1.765 billion yuan (+16.10%) [2] Competitive Positioning - The company maintained a strong competitive advantage in the B2B sector, with revenue from the top five clients reaching 791 million yuan (+7.45%) [3] - The first major client, Yum China, reported a revenue of 376 million yuan (-4.57%), while the second to fourth clients collectively generated 415 million yuan (+21.28%) [3] - In the C2C sector, the company’s online platform achieved a revenue of 918 million yuan (+5.99%) in 2024, recovering from a decline in 2023 [3] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 3.91 percentage points to 8.8%, while the gross margin slightly declined by 0.33 percentage points to 32.81% [4] - The gross margin for compound seasonings increased by 2.85 percentage points, while light cooking solutions saw a decrease of 4.23 percentage points [4] - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined to 8.71%, despite a slight increase in gross margin to 32.61% [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 274 million, 315 million, and 358 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.79, and 0.90 yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 20, 17, and 15 times for the respective years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group [3][5] Core Views - The C-end business shows strong resilience, with significant improvements in the robotics segment. The domestic appliance replacement policy is effective, leading to a projected increase in sales [1][2] - The B-end business demonstrates steady growth, particularly in the new energy and industrial technology sectors, with a notable recovery in the robotics and automation segment [2] - Long-term, Midea Group's leading position is solid, supported by efficiency optimization and channel transformation, with a target price of 86.00 CNY based on a 15x PE for 2025 [3] Summary by Sections C-end Business - The domestic appliance replacement policy is expected to drive continued growth in the C-end business, with a projected 24% year-on-year increase in air conditioning sales in Q4 2024 [1] - Overseas sales of air conditioning units are projected to grow by 38% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with a cumulative growth of 31% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] B-end Business - The B-end business revenue grew by 5% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2024, with the robotics and automation segment showing a significant improvement in H2 2024 [2] - The robotics and automation segment is estimated to generate 30 billion CNY in revenue for 2024, with a 12% year-on-year increase in Q4 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 38.88 billion CNY, 43.64 billion CNY, and 49.15 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [3][4] - Midea's current PE is 14.4, which is below the 5-year average PE of 15.8 for Midea and 18.7 for Haier, indicating a favorable valuation [3]