1. 1月21日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.27%，标普500指数期货跌0.20%，纳指期货跌0.39%。 | 를 US 30 | 48,358.40 | 48,615.40 | 48,358.40 | -130.60 | -0.27% | 20:46:29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 를 US 500 | 6.783.40 | 6,824.40 | 6.783.40 | -13.50 | -0.20% | 20:46:29 | | 트 US Tech 100 | 24,889.20 | 25,101.10 | 24,882.50 | -98.40 | -0.39% | 20:47:29 | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌1.09%，英国富时100指数跌0.18%，法国CAC40指数跌0.38%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.95%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,420.82 | 24,683.32 | 24,399.82 | -268.85 | -1.09% | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

美国正威胁至少发动一场经济战争，以夺取对格陵兰岛的控制权；日本政局的不确定性扰乱了全球债券 市场；此外，美联储的独立性仍面临来自特朗普政府的威胁。 智通财经APP注意到，这种局势显然不是那种让人高喊"买入风险资产"的典型背景，尤其是目前多头势 力明显超过空头，且美股估值处于高位。周二，股市创下自10月以来的最大单日跌幅，但华尔街策略师 表示，尽管动荡困扰市场，但股市进一步上涨的基础依然稳固。 他们的逻辑通常基于这样一个观点：风险资产长期以来一直能看透地缘政治动荡，除非这种混乱导致油 价飙升。尽管原油价格周二攀升，但布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的成交价仍远低于长期平 均水平。 "许多投资者担心这会动摇股票市场，但我们对此并不完全认同，"汇丰控股新兴市场及股票策略主管 Alastair Pinder 在1月20日的一份报告中写道。他指出，自1940年以来的36次重大地缘政治事件中，美股 在随后的三个月内有60%的时间是上涨的。"主要的例外出现在地缘政治推动油价大幅上涨时。" 特朗普对格陵兰岛加征关税打破市场平静 还有其他理由支撑看多观点。核心支柱来自企业盈利：预计第四季度利润增长约9%，且2026年每 ...

1月19日，中国太平发布公告称，根据初步估算，集团截至2025年12月31日止年度（「2025年年度」）之股东应占溢 利预计与去年同期（「2024年年度」）相比增加约215%至225%。2024年年度的股东应占溢利为84.32亿港元。公司股 东应占溢利预计增加主要是因净投资业绩较2024年度有所提升，以及中国国家税务部门针对中国保险行业推出的新企 业所得税税收政策的一次性影响。 （中国太平） ...

沪上阿姨在港交所公告，基于对本集团截至2025年12月31日止年度未经审核综合管理账目的初步审阅及 可获得的其他资料，本集团预计于报告期间录得年内溢利介乎约人民币495百万元至人民币525百万元， 较去年同期的年内溢利人民币329百万元增加介乎约50%至60%。预计本集团于报告期间录得经调整年 内溢利（非国际财务报告准则计量）约人民币560百万元至人民币590百万元，较去年同期之经调整年内 溢利人民币418百万元上升约34%至41%。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianhong International Group (02678) expects a significant increase in net profit for the year ending December 31, 2025, projecting an increase of approximately 60% compared to the year ending December 31, 2024, amounting to around RMB 589 million [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated increase in net profit is primarily attributed to a recovery in domestic and international market orders for the year 2025 [1] - The company expects improvements in both sales volume and capacity utilization compared to 2024, which will contribute to an increase in product gross margin for 2025 [1] - Financial expenses are expected to decrease significantly in 2025 compared to 2024, due to the continued optimization of the company's asset-liability structure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cailian Technology has issued a profit warning, predicting a significant increase in net profit for 2025, which is expected to grow by 4 to 4.5 times year-on-year, reaching between 1.4 billion to 1.53 billion yuan, greatly exceeding both the firm's and market expectations [1] Financial Forecast Adjustments - Following the profit warning announcement, the firm has raised its net profit forecasts for Cailian Technology for 2025 and 2026 by 109% and 12% respectively, now estimating net profits of 1.47 billion yuan and 952 million yuan for those years, with the current year's forecast not including disposal gains [1] - Additionally, the firm has introduced revenue and net profit forecasts for 2027, projecting revenues of 27.7 billion yuan and net profits of 1.21 billion yuan [1] Rating and Target Price - The firm maintains an "outperform" rating for Cailian Technology, with a target price set at 14.97 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Asset Management predicts that the Nikkei 225 index could reach 200,000 points by 2040, assuming inflation stabilizes and nominal values are used to measure the Japanese economy and corporate earnings [1][2] Summary by Categories Economic Outlook - The report suggests that sustained inflation is expected to accelerate nominal GDP growth, which will support future corporate profit growth [1][2] Corporate Earnings - Chief Strategist Hideyuki Ishiguro forecasts an annual growth of approximately 10% in earnings per share, indicating that corporate profits could double approximately every seven years [1][2] Index Projections - The Nikkei 225 index is anticipated to reach around 100,000 points by 2033 and 200,000 points by 2040 [1][2]

药明合联(02268)发布公告，预期集团截至2025年12月31日止年度取得以下财务业绩：(1)收入：较截至 2024年12月31日止年度增长超过45%;(2)毛利：较截至2024年12月31日止年度增长超过70%。毛利增长 率高于收入增长率，显示集团产品╱服务利润率及成本控制能力的有效优化;(3)扣除利息收入及开支前 的经调整纯利：较截至2024年12月31日止年度增长超过45%。撇除汇率变动影响后，该增长率预期将超 过65%，证实了集团核心经营业务强劲的利润增长动力;(4)净利润：尽管受到汇率及利率变动的不利影 响，较截至2024年12月31日止年度增长超过38%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hang Seng Index's long-term performance will depend on corporate earnings recovery, despite short-term momentum from valuation expansion [1] - The sectors expected to see the highest earnings growth by 2026 are consumer discretionary, materials, and information technology, all of which are above the market average [1] - Liquidity is a crucial factor supporting the performance of Hong Kong stocks, with significant net inflows from mainland investors exceeding HKD 1 trillion last year [1] Group 2 - Despite significant gains in Hong Kong stocks last year, structural investment opportunities remain, particularly driven by the expansion of AI applications and increased market liquidity from northbound capital and IPOs [2] - The target price for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 30,000 points based on a target P/E ratio of 11 times [2] - AI development is expected to continue driving growth in the US stock market, with strong semiconductor sales and high capital expenditure in tech firms supporting overall economic growth [2]

2026.01. 06 本文字数：2422，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 随着2025年结束，美股以连续第三年实现两位数百分比涨幅的成绩收官。本轮牛市如今进入第四个 年头，想要再现业绩斐然的年份，在市场人士眼中，这需要企业盈利表现强劲、美联储采取宽松政 策，同时人工智能领域维持高额投入作为支撑。但包括中期选举、地缘政治等在内的一些不利因素， 也令美股今年前景的不确定性有所上升。 CFRA首席投资策略师斯托瓦尔（Sam Stovall）表示，美股若想在2026年继续实现强劲的两位数回 报率，就需要各项利好因素全面发力，同时诸多不利因素可以有效化解，今年市场或许会交出一份亮 眼的成绩单，但很难再复制此前的辉煌表现。他将年底标普500指数的目标点位设定在略显保守的 7400点。 机构预测谨慎 尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策令市场在上半年大幅下挫，标普500指数随后探底回升收盘涨幅达到 16.8%。不过，这也意味着冲击 "连续三年涨幅超20%"的里程碑失败。历史上，该指数仅在1995年 开启的一轮由科技股驱动的牛市中达成过这一成就，而那轮牛市最终在2000年初随着互联网泡沫破 裂而终结。 即便未能达成 ...