Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, corn futures traded within a range, while hog and egg futures first rose and then declined. The report suggests a long - term range - bound operation for corn, a low - buying strategy in the medium term, and a short - term bullish trend. For hogs, the supply is expected to increase in 2025, with short - term price fluctuations between 14 - 15 yuan/kg, and medium - to long - term supply pressure. For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the inventory may first decrease and then increase after the May Day holiday [6][10][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - The tariff event affects the global corn market in terms of price, supply, and trade flow, and impacts the domestic corn market mainly at the emotional level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent impact of the tariff event on the global grain market [12][101]. Industry Logic - The corn market may enter a passive inventory - building cycle. Key factors to watch include the auction policies of targeted rice/imported corn and grain import policies [13][102]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is gradually tightening, while the supply - demand of US corn remains relatively loose. In China, there is a long - term corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. The import volume in the 24/25 season is expected to decrease significantly, and the domestic supply - demand pattern may shift from loose to basically balanced. In the medium term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the supply may gradually tighten. In the second quarter, focus on the policy - grain release rhythm, wheat substitution scale, and channel selling mentality [13][102]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the pig production capacity increases, and the supply of hogs enters an upward cycle. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remains high, so the feed consumption maintains a rigid demand. The deep - processing consumption is generally stable with a slight increase, providing rigid support for corn prices. In the second quarter, focus on the inventory - building efforts of downstream feed enterprises and the changes in hog/poultry存栏 [13][102]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short term, domestic grass - roots grain sales are nearing completion, port inventories are declining from high levels, and spot prices are fluctuating. In the medium term, the supply may gradually tighten, but the release of policy - grain sources and the expected wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. In the long term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be emphasized. In May, focus on supply variables such as wheat substitution and policy - grain auctions [14][103]. Trading Strategy - Long - term range - bound operation; medium - term low - buying strategy; short - term bullish trend. For the 2507 contract, watch whether it can break through the 2340 - 2350 pressure level. If it breaks through effectively, the expected price range will move up to 2370 - 2380. For the 2509 contract, if it effectively stands above 2350, the expected price range will move up to 2380 - 2400; otherwise, maintain a range - trading strategy [14][103]. Hogs Macro Logic - Domestically, focus on the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices. In March 2025, the CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and factors such as the Spring Festival month - shift narrowed the year - on - year decline and significantly increased the month - on - month figure [56][104]. Industry Logic - Against the background of the normalization of post - African swine fever diseases, passive capacity reduction leads to significant periodic fluctuations in hog prices, shortening the price fluctuation cycle but increasing the frequency. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding sector is not over, and enterprises with low costs and good financial conditions continue to increase capacity utilization and expand market share. The slaughter plans of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 are still expected to increase year - on - year [57][105]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Excluding the impact of winter diseases, the hog supply in 2025 enters an upward cycle. The sow存栏 data shows a high level, and the production indicators of some leading breeding enterprises are improving, increasing the supply pressure. The number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the post - Spring Festival slaughter weight is higher than in previous years [58][106]. - **Demand**: Pork consumption is relatively rigid, mainly following seasonal patterns in the short - to medium - term, and long - term attention should be paid to changes in the consumption structure [74]. Market Viewpoint - In the short term, the market supply is relatively balanced, and the national hog price fluctuates between 14 - 15 yuan/kg. As the weather gets warmer, the supply may exceed demand. In the medium term, the high number of newborn piglets and increasing slaughter weight will lead to continuous supply pressure in the next six months. In the long term, if diseases are excluded, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [59][107]. Operation Suggestion - The futures market has already priced in the downward expectation. After the Spring Festival, it has been trading on the repair logic. The medium - term trend is range - bound, and the short - term trend is weakly bearish. The support level for the 2507 contract is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure level is 13700. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13800 - 13900, and the pressure level is 14600 - 14700 [60][108]. Eggs Macro Logic - Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes. Currently, the prices of meat and vegetables are stable, and the macro - driving force is weak [78][110]. Industry Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four consecutive years. Driven by profits, the large - scale rate of egg - laying chicken breeding continues to increase, which will change the breeding subject structure and production efficiency [78][110]. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: The存栏 of grandparent - stock egg - laying chickens has increased, and the import proportion has risen significantly. The存栏 of laying hens is slowly increasing and remains at a high level. The culling rhythm of old hens is slower than expected due to breeding profits [79][111]. - **Demand**: Historically, consumption increases slightly month - on - month in May. After the downstream stocking before the May Day holiday is basically completed, the current inventories in the production and circulation links are rising. It is expected that the inventory will be digested during the May Day holiday, and downstream consumption will support the spot price after the inventory adjustment [79][111]. Feed Cost - As of April 24, the feed cost per catty of eggs is 3.11 yuan, and the average weekly profit per catty of fresh eggs is 0.18 yuan. Rising feed costs support egg prices. The impact of feed prices on breeding profits should be monitored, as stable feed prices may slow down the culling rhythm, while rising prices may accelerate it [80][112]. Inventory Level - After the Spring Festival, the inventory declined from a high level and reached the lowest in early April, maintaining a low level for about two weeks. In late April, the inventory started to rise rapidly. As of April 24, the average production - link inventory was 1.16 days, the same as in 2024, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.28 days, compared with 1.03 days in 2024. It is expected that the supply will increase in May, and the inventory may first decrease and then increase after the May Day holiday [81][114]. Culling Rhythm - Since April, the culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down significantly, and the price of old hens has stopped falling and started to rise. As of April 24, the average price of old hens in Xinji was 5 yuan/kg, compared with 4.2 yuan/kg in 2024. The weekly culling age of old hens was 536 days, compared with 501 days in 2024. The current culling scale is lower than expected, and the large - scale culling time should be closely watched [82][113]. Variety Viewpoint - In the medium term, based on the data of chick replenishment and hen culling, the存栏 of laying hens is expected to increase from March to June. Insufficient culling willingness and forced molting may increase the supply pressure in the second quarter, and breeding profits may turn negative. In the long term, if the capacity reduction in the second quarter is less than expected, the supply pressure may continue into the second half of the year; otherwise, the pressure may be significantly relieved. Currently, the willingness to cull hens is increasing, and the impact of the culling rhythm on far - month contracts should be noted [83][115]. Trading Strategy - The report previously suggested paying attention to short - selling opportunities after the spot price peaks. The previously suggested pressure levels of 3180 - 3200 for the 2507 contract and 3880 - 3900 for the 2509 contract have been verified by the market. If the 2507 contract effectively breaks below the MA20 moving average and the 2509 contract effectively breaks below 3800, further downward space may open; otherwise, maintain a range - trading strategy. The 2506 main contract has fallen below the MA60 moving average following the spot price. Currently, the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot price, and the short - term downward space should not be overestimated. Wait for further spot price movements [84][116].

周四早盘冲高回落后窄幅震荡，多空围绕"关税跳空缺口"反复争夺。周四 A 股早盘出现冲高回落，市场一度出现快速下跌，但午盘企稳后维持窄幅 震荡，多空双方围绕"关税缺口"反复争夺。周四收盘距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管 "对等关 税"的后续影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场 情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范 围加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务 依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和 ...

周二指数继续反弹修复，沪指接近回补"关税跳空缺口"。周二 A 股全天继续维持修复反弹走势， 距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥。虽然经历了连续的上涨，市场观望情绪开 始加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开 始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续影响还存在一 定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和消费主线，预计会受益于未来的对冲政策。A 股在美国 政府征收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Corn selling progress is faster year - on - year, with only about 10% of the remaining grain in the market. Imported corn and alternative grains' imports have decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the impact on the corn market and alleviating the short - term supply pressure. However, downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have high inventories, with insufficient short - term demand growth. Potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn still exist. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5][39]. - Medium - to - long - term: As downstream demand recovers, tariff - affected imports of US corn may decline significantly, and the demand for domestic corn will strengthen. The supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and there may be an upward expectation for corn in the medium - to - long term. Overall, since the external dependence of corn is gradually weakening, corn prices are still dominated by the domestic corn supply - demand logic [5][39]. Summary by Directory I. Corn Market Structure - Price trend: As of early April, the corn index price in March showed a V - shaped reversal. After falling to 2250 yuan/ton at the end of February, it rebounded to test the 2350 yuan/ton resistance level, then failed to break through and declined again to test the 2250 yuan/ton support level [7]. - Supply situation: Since the new grain was launched, the enthusiasm of grass - roots grain sales has been relatively high. The grain - selling progress in North China and Northeast China before the Spring Festival was faster than in previous years, approaching 90%. Currently, there is little remaining grain. Imports of corn and alternative grains have decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the impact on the corn market and alleviating the short - term supply pressure [7]. - Demand situation: The pig production capacity is continuously recovering, and feed consumption is expected to increase. The overall supply - demand pattern is improving. However, potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn still exist. The recent tariff event may affect corn prices, but overall, corn prices are still dominated by the domestic corn supply - demand logic [7]. - Term - structure: The overall structure shows that the May contract is at a discount to the September contract, and the September contract is at a premium to the January contract [8]. II. Market行情 Analysis 1. Supply Side - **Global corn supply - demand situation and tariff impact**: The US Department of Agriculture's March supply - demand report shows that the estimated corn planting area in the US in 2025 is 95.326 million acres, the highest in 12 years. The quarterly inventory on March 1, 2025, was 8.15 billion bushels, close to market expectations. Due to the expected increase in planting area, US corn prices began to decline under pressure in late March. However, due to the year - on - year decline in quarterly inventory and the market's "bad news is out" mentality, the main contract of CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher on Monday, holding above the 4.5 - dollar mark. The US announced new tariff policies, which will reduce US corn exports. US corn prices have dropped from 520 cents/bushel to 450 cents/bushel, reflecting the expected impact of tariffs on exports. US corn is expected to fluctuate narrowly at 450 cents/bushel, and there is still great uncertainty about the future planting area [10][11]. - **Remaining grain situation**: The corn production in the 2024/2025 season is still in the category of a bumper harvest, although it has decreased. Different institutions have different judgments on the increase or decrease in corn production. The remaining grain in most domestic producing areas has almost run out, and the market supply is tightening. The selling peak has passed, and most of the grain has been transferred to traders and processing enterprises. As it is the spring plowing season, farmers' focus has shifted, and the remaining grain sales may slow down. Supported by the policy of continuous purchasing by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, the sentiment of holders expecting price increases is rising, and their willingness to sell is weak, leading to a tightening supply. However, due to the price difference between North China and Northeast China, some traders in Northeast China are willing to sell to North China, and the market liquidity is good [13][14]. - **Import and policy impact**: The recent tariff event has limited impact on the import of corn and alternative grains. China has accelerated the diversification of grain imports in recent years, and the proportion of US corn and wheat imports in China's total imports is less than 20%. The impact of tariff policies is relatively limited, but the impact on US sorghum may be relatively large. On the domestic front, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has been purchasing to support the market since the new grain was launched, and the purchase volume of reserve - grain corn has been greater than the sales volume since 2025, which is conducive to expanding the sales channels of new grain and alleviating the pressure on farmers to sell grain. In the context of weakening imports and substitution, the market sentiment is boosted, and the futures market may be supported later [18][19]. 2. Demand Side - **Pig production and feed demand**: The destocking process of sows is slow, and the inventory of sows has always remained above the normal market level. In February 2025, the inventory of sows was 40.66 million. As of March 28, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 51.83 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 27.13 yuan per head. The pig market faces double pressures on the cost and supply sides. The pig spot price has a driving force to return to the breeding cost, showing low - profit characteristics throughout the year. In 2024, the quarterly pig slaughter volume was lower than in previous years, and with the continuous increase in pig inventory, the market supply is sufficient. The demand for pig feed is expected to increase year - on - year this year, but currently, it is mainly about consuming the previous inventory. Although there is a large - scale rigid demand for feed, it is difficult to have an increase [25]. - **Deep - processing demand**: Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss state, and the starch inventory is at a high level. Enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement, and some deep - processing enterprises may consume inventory by auctioning old grain. The overall processing demand is difficult to increase significantly. As of April 3, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 61.49%, a 0.56% decrease from the previous period, and the production volume of deep - processed corn starch was 64.99 tons, a 0.59% decrease from the previous period. The processing profit of corn starch was - 45.20 yuan per ton. High costs have greatly compressed the profit space, and the adjustment expectation of the operating rate has affected market confidence. Enterprises' procurement actions are relatively cautious [35][37]. III. Market Outlook - Short - term: The corn selling progress is faster year - on - year, with only about 10% of the remaining grain in the market. Imported corn and alternative grains' imports have decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the impact on the corn market and alleviating the short - term supply pressure. However, downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have high inventories, with insufficient short - term demand growth. Potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution for corn still exist. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5][39]. - Medium - to - long - term: As downstream demand recovers, tariff - affected imports of US corn may decline significantly, and the demand for domestic corn will strengthen. The supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and there may be an upward expectation for corn in the medium - to - long term. Overall, since the external dependence of corn is gradually weakening, corn prices are still dominated by the domestic corn supply - demand logic [5][39].