Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, influenced by multiple factors such as the increasing expectation of fiscal expansion, the continuous seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and fluctuations in the capital market. Although the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, long - term fundamental support remains, and there may be opportunities for a rebound after the market correction [1][2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: On May 20, the central bank cut the LPR, and major state - owned and some joint - stock banks lowered deposit rates. In July, the LPR remained stable. Sino - US economic and trade talks are scheduled from July 27 - 30. In the first half of 2025, the national fiscal operation was generally stable, with increased expenditure and optimized revenue - expenditure structure. General public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight 0.3% year - on - year decrease, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. Government - funded budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year. The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year [1]. - **Funding Conditions**: On July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates (1D, 7D, 14D) were 1.52%, 1.65%, and 1.67% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently risen [2]. - **Market Conditions**: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.31 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 108.18 yuan, and 117.95 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were - 0.11%, - 0.36%, - 0.53%, and - 1.68% respectively. The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, 0.11 yuan, 0.10 yuan, and 0.80 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: With the rising repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2509 contract is neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread. - **Hedging**: As there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3].

Group 1 - Japanese government bond auction demand was weak, leading to a significant drop in Japanese bonds and a rise in yields, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 10 basis points to 2.93% [2][5] - The U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.47%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] - Concerns over U.S. fiscal health are growing due to rising deficits from tax cuts and tariffs, impacting investor sentiment towards the dollar, which has seen a nearly 7% decline this year [8] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector saw a rise in stock prices ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with notable increases in shares of Samsung Electronics (up over 3%) and TSMC (up over 2%) [5] - Analysts expect strong demand for Nvidia chips in the coming quarters, supported by comments from major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google [5] - Japan proposed purchasing billions of dollars worth of U.S. semiconductor products during trade negotiations, indicating potential growth in this sector [5] Group 3 - The Asian stock markets erased early gains, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.6% and the Nikkei 225 closing nearly unchanged at 37,722.4 points [1] - The price of rebar steel has fallen to an eight-year low, trading around 2,958 yuan, with an 11% decline in price year-to-date [12] - Cryptocurrency markets experienced a downturn, with Bitcoin down by 0.2% and Ethereum down by 1.1% [9]

周四早盘冲高回落后窄幅震荡，多空围绕"关税跳空缺口"反复争夺。周四 A 股早盘出现冲高回落，市场一度出现快速下跌，但午盘企稳后维持窄幅 震荡，多空双方围绕"关税缺口"反复争夺。周四收盘距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管 "对等关 税"的后续影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场 情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范 围加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务 依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和 ...

周二指数继续反弹修复，沪指接近回补"关税跳空缺口"。周二 A 股全天继续维持修复反弹走势， 距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥。虽然经历了连续的上涨，市场观望情绪开 始加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开 始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续影响还存在一 定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和消费主线，预计会受益于未来的对冲政策。A 股在美国 政府征收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly optimistic about the improvement of European economic data and expectations of fiscal expansion, leading to a stronger Euro against the Dollar and a boost in gold and copper prices [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of Gold and Copper - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.76% and silver by 3.82%, while SHFE gold and silver increased by 1.1% and 2.48% respectively. COMEX copper and SHFE copper prices changed by +3.28% and +1.93% [2]. - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, with a notable divergence from the performance of US tech stocks, influenced by changing tariff policies and European demand recovery [5][6]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Multiple uncertainties, including fluctuating tariff policies and escalating geopolitical risks, are providing support for gold prices. Recent US non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading the Federal Reserve to hesitate on interest rate cuts [4][13]. - Gold prices rebounded quickly after a significant correction, supported by the chaotic geopolitical situation, tariff fluctuations, and concerns over US inflation [26]. Group 3: Copper Market Insights - The copper concentrate market is experiencing a decline in processing fees, with current prices fluctuating between -15 to -20 USD/ton due to supply and demand factors. Indonesia's approval of copper concentrate export policies has eased supply tensions [8][10]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 370,900 tons, influenced by reduced imports and increased downstream purchasing demand [10][12]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold and silver prices are fluctuating at high levels, with COMEX gold trading between 2866 and 2941 USD/oz and silver between 31.6 and 33.4 USD/oz. The geopolitical risks and tariff policy uncertainties are providing support for gold prices [13][15]. - The gold-silver ratio is trending downwards, indicating stronger performance in silver compared to gold [15]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The recent National People's Congress in China has led to a neutral impact on market expectations regarding fiscal policies. The macroeconomic data for February appears positive, suggesting potential upward movement for copper prices [26]. - The chaotic geopolitical landscape and concerns over inflation are expected to support a further increase in gold prices [26].