Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index is rising, influenced by sector performances such as metals and semiconductors, while banking and insurance sectors are underperforming [1][2][4][8]. Market Performance - A-share market shows significant divergence today, with over 3,300 stocks rising despite the Shanghai Composite Index's decline [2][4]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.54 trillion [4]. Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges plan to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks (ST stocks) from 5% to 10%, aligning them with other mainboard stocks [5][6]. - This change is expected to enhance market liquidity and facilitate risk mitigation for related companies [6]. Sector Analysis - The banking and insurance sectors' pullback has negatively impacted the Shanghai Composite Index's performance [8]. - Despite today's adjustment, the banking sector has increased by 16.9% this year, leading among major industries [10]. - The China Securities Banking Index's price-to-book ratio (PB) is at 0.73, indicating a valuation advantage [13]. Policy and Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the easing tensions in the Middle East have reduced short-term market risk aversion, predicting a steady upward trend in the market [7]. - Upcoming significant events in July, including the political bureau meeting and mid-year earnings reports, are expected to influence market sentiment and performance [20][22]. Historical Patterns - Historical data indicates that July often sees a rebound following a weak May and June, aligning with the "Five Poor, Six Absolute, Seven Rebound" adage [22]. - The central political bureau meeting in July is anticipated to provide new policy signals that could positively impact market sentiment [22]. Sector Opportunities - Historically, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals tend to perform well in July [25]. - The report suggests a focus on technology, resources, and high-end manufacturing sectors for potential growth [26].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares have experienced a significant rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and nearly 4,500 stocks increasing in value, influenced by the recent halt of tariffs by the U.S. International Trade Court [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariff Suspension - The suspension of tariffs is expected to boost risk appetite in the market, leading to a collective rise in major indices [3][4]. - The U.S. International Trade Court's decision to block the implementation of tariffs announced by Trump on April 2 is a key factor in the market's positive response [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment enhances the investment attributes of A-shares, with a focus on a "dividend bottom + small-cap growth" strategy for portfolio allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Implications for China - If tariffs are fully lifted, it could significantly alleviate the negative impact on China's exports and nominal GDP, which are currently projected to be dragged down by 5.5% and 1% respectively due to existing tariffs [5][7]. - The best-case scenario for China would be the complete cancellation of the 20%+ reciprocal tariffs imposed this year, although this is considered unlikely [7][9]. - In a more optimistic scenario of full tariff removal, China's exports could potentially achieve a growth rate of around 4% for the year [9]. Group 3: Beneficial Sectors - The consumer electronics sector stands to benefit from reduced export costs if tariffs are suspended, potentially leading to improved performance for companies in this space [10]. - The new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors may also see profit margins expand due to lower tariffs on components, enhancing their competitiveness in global markets [11]. - The cross-border e-commerce and logistics sectors could experience improved profit margins and increased business volume as a result of lower tariffs and enhanced customs efficiency [12]. Group 4: June Market Outlook - Historical trends suggest that June may present challenges for the market, with mixed performance expected across different asset classes [14][15]. - The past decade shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has had an equal number of up and down months in June, while smaller indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index have generally performed better [15][17]. - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors such as consumer services and growth industries, including home appliances, automobiles, food and beverage, and technology, which have historically shown higher probabilities of excess returns in June [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional saying "Five Poor, Six Absolute, Seven Turnaround" does not apply to the A-share market, as historical data shows different trends in market performance during these months [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance Analysis - Historical data over the past 20 years indicates that the average market performance in May and July is positive, with average gains of 1.52% and 2.26% respectively, while June shows a slight decline of 1.41% [3][4]. - The percentage of years with declines in May and June is 55%, while July shows a decline in 40% of the years [4]. - The average and median returns for the months of April to July are as follows: April (2.24%, -1.07%), May (1.52%, -0.05%), June (-1.41%, 1.50%), and July (2.26%, 0.41%) [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Trends - In May, the end of annual and quarterly report disclosures may enhance risk appetite, leading to increased investment in high-performing sectors [4]. - June typically sees a tightening of liquidity as the market prepares for mid-year reports, which can lead to a decrease in risk appetite [5]. - July benefits from significant meetings and concentrated mid-year report disclosures, which can signal quantitative easing and positively influence market performance [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance Insights - The top-performing sectors in May based on absolute return and win rate include Food and Beverage (2.5% return, 66.7% win rate), Pharmaceutical and Biological (2.1% return, 60% win rate), Electronics (3.1% return, 53.3% win rate), and Computer (2.4% return, 53.3% win rate) [7][10]. - The Food and Beverage sector is expected to benefit from easing cost pressures and recovering consumption scenarios, with a notable increase in retail and dining sales during holidays [8]. - The Pharmaceutical sector is favored for defensive positioning due to policy support and improved earnings, with a reported 18% year-on-year profit growth in Q1 [9].

Group 1 - The origin of the saying "Five poor, six absolute, seven turn around" comes from the Hong Kong stock market in the 1980s and 1990s, indicating a seasonal pattern in stock performance [1] - The saying has been adopted in the A-share market, but its relevance has been questioned due to changes in market structure and investor behavior [1][4] - Historical data over the past 20 years shows that the average performance of the A-share market in May has been positive, with an average increase of 1.52%, despite 55% of the years experiencing declines [2][4] Group 2 - In June, the A-share market has shown an average decline of 1.41%, with 40% of the years experiencing downturns, attributed to tightening liquidity and institutional rebalancing [2][4] - July typically sees a recovery, with an average increase of 2.26% and 40% of the years showing declines, driven by policy expectations and mid-year earnings reports [2][4] Group 3 - The weakening of the calendar effect is noted, as recent policy changes have accelerated, reducing the impact of traditional seasonal patterns [4][5] - The increase in institutional investor participation has led to a diminished effect of short-term sentiment fluctuations, with a greater focus on long-term investment logic [5] Group 4 - Investment strategies should focus on fundamental analysis and policy direction rather than solely relying on historical patterns [6][8] - Suggested strategies include diversifying investments across technology growth and defensive dividend assets to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [7][11] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors supported by government policies, such as technology and consumer upgrades, which are expected to benefit from recent financial measures [9][10] - The real estate sector is highlighted as having potential recovery opportunities due to improved credit conditions and consumer spending capabilities [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-share listed companies represent a resilient and adaptable segment of China's economy, with nearly 90% of their revenue coming from domestic sources, and a net profit growth of 3.6% in Q1 [1] - The A500 index, which tracks core assets in the A-share market, has shown a stable performance, with significant gains in stocks such as AVIC Chengfei and Maiwei Shares, indicating strong market interest [1] - The A500 ETF (159339) covers 63% of total revenue and 70% of total net profit in the A-share market, making it a powerful tool for long-term investment in high-quality development trends in China's capital market [1] Group 2 - The A50 ETF (159592) focuses on large-cap leading stocks across various industries, benefiting from increased market concentration due to supply-side reforms, and is expected to attract more funds during earnings disclosure periods [2] - There is a historical calendar effect in the A-share market, where May typically outperforms April and June, with a rebound expected in July following a tightening of liquidity in June [2]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional stock market saying "May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround" does not hold true based on statistical analysis of the A-share market from 1991 to 2024, indicating that the calendar effect is a misconception [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown that from 2009 to 2024, April generally has a low probability of rising, while August tends to have a larger average decline [1] - June and July have relatively high probabilities of rising, contrary to the saying, with May showing a rise probability of less than 50% but not being the lowest month [1] - In the earlier period from 1991 to 2008, October had the lowest probability of rising, while May and June had higher probabilities, further debunking the "poor May" notion [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - In May, the market is expected to shift back to technology growth sectors, with catalysts including updates on AI large models and developments in robotics [2] - Key areas of focus include AI applications in cloud computing, office automation, and healthcare, as well as the ongoing trend of domestic semiconductor production [2] - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to gain momentum following the announcement of pilot cities, with strong expectations for construction and development in related sectors [2] Group 3: Market Performance - Recent market performance showed a broad increase in individual stocks, with nearly 5,000 stocks rising and trading volume expanding to 1.3 trillion, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3] - Technology sectors such as computers, communications, machinery, media, and electronics led the gains, while defensive sectors like food and beverage showed minimal increases [3]

Market Overview - On May 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.01%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.57%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 6 were Computer (+3.65%), Communication (+3.59%), Comprehensive (+3.38%), Machinery Equipment (+3.04%), and Media (+2.82%). The worst-performing sectors were Banking (-0.13%), Food & Beverage (+0.35%), Beauty & Personal Care (+0.43%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+0.66%), and Coal (+0.74%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 6 was 13,644.47 billion, with a net inflow of 13.476 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Huadong Cable (605196) as a leading company in "cables + oil service materials" with promising overseas expansion, particularly in the African electrolytic aluminum project, which is expected to exceed expectations [5] - The recommendation logic indicates that the company is a typical "outbound" enterprise with continuous improvement in overseas capacity layout, and the electrolytic aluminum project is anticipated to double the company's profits [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate revenues of 7,377.70 million, 9,925.67 million, and 11,393.83 million, with growth rates of 16.24%, 34.54%, and 14.79% respectively. Net profits are projected at 330.15 million, 752.43 million, and 1,064.84 million, with growth rates of 3.39%, 127.90%, and 41.52% respectively [5] Key Insights - The strategy research indicates a historical pattern in the A-share market from 2010 to 2024, characterized by "April weakness, May not poor, June absolute, and July rebound" [6][7] - In terms of sector performance, May typically sees strong results in Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical & Biological, Electronics, and Computers, while June favors Electronics, and July benefits cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, defense, agriculture, and social services [7] - The report suggests that calendar effects may influence the performance of the entire A-share market and sector indices [7]

Group 1 - The market remains relatively stable, largely supported by major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, which have reached historical highs and provide a sense of security to the overall market [1][3] - Despite the overall market stability, many individual stocks are struggling to recover from the gaps created by tariff issues, indicating a challenging journey ahead for these stocks [3][5] - The period around late April is particularly difficult for small-cap stocks due to earnings disclosures, with many stocks facing significant declines during this time [3][5] Group 2 - As May approaches, there is a sense of optimism that the earnings clouds may finally dissipate, yet investor sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [5][7] - The saying "May is poor, June is bleak, and July will turn around" serves as a reminder that even with a new month, the market may still face turbulence [5][7] - In the medium to long term, the market's valuation advantage persists, indicating that the current level around 3300 points is not necessarily overvalued, with valuations oscillating between undervaluation and overvaluation [7]