Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $3,320.80, with a slight increase of 0.12% reported at $3,318.92 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have shown strong rebounds followed by declines, with significant support levels identified at $3,315 to $3,313, which are crucial for potential bullish resistance [2][3] - If the gold price breaks below the $3,315 to $3,313 range, further attention should be given to the $3,295 to $3,300 area, which is a key psychological level and also aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury has reported a significant increase in tariff revenue, previously estimated at $300 billion, which is now expected to be substantially higher, with $100 billion already collected since the implementation of global tariffs [2] - There are proposals from some lawmakers to use tariff revenues for tax rebates to American citizens, potentially providing $600 per adult and child, totaling around $2,400 for a family of four [2] - The U.S. government's focus remains on debt repayment and deficit reduction, with a confirmation of the AA+ credit rating by S&P Global supporting the effectiveness of the current debt repayment strategy [2]

美东时间周二，美国财政部长贝森特表示，他预计特朗普征收的全面关税将使美国财政收入大幅增加， 并表示这笔钱将首先用于偿还联邦债务，而不是给美国人发放退税支票。 美国关税收入将优先用于偿还国债 贝森特表示，他预计会大幅上调此前对关税带来的3000亿美元收入的估计，但他拒绝透露更多细节，只 是表示关税收入将"大幅增长"。 贝森特还表示，美国经济可能重回1990年代"良好的低通胀成长"，但他将困扰部分经济领域的问题归咎 于利率过高，特别指出高利率拖累了房地产市场和信用卡负债较高的低收入家庭。 "真正的问题是，我们看到利率上升带来的一些分配方面的影响，尤其是在住房和信用卡债务高昂的低 收入家庭，"他说道。"我们看到了（资本支出）的大幅增长，一部分来自人工智能，一部分来自税收， 因此资本支出表现良好；但家庭和房屋建设却举步维艰。" 贝森特表示，特朗普一直在敦促美联储降低关键利率，这可能有助于促进房地产建设的繁荣或回升，并 将有助于在一到两年内促进房价下降。 此前，特朗普在吹捧关税所带来的收入时，曾提出了这些关税收入的几种用途：首先，用于偿还国家巨 额债务，同时，也可能给美国人民带来"红利"。 正因为特朗普曾经的"画饼"， ...

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global Ratings maintains the United States' long-term credit rating at AA+ and short-term rating at A-1+, citing the resilience of the U.S. credit system despite significant fiscal challenges posed by the recent "Big and Beautiful" tax expenditure bill [1][6]. Group 1: Tax Revenue and Fiscal Impact - The increase in effective tariff rates is expected to generate substantial tariff revenue, which will offset potential weaker fiscal outcomes related to recent U.S. fiscal legislation that includes both tax cuts and increased tariff revenues [2]. - In July, U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high of approximately $28 billion, with projections suggesting that annual tariff revenue could exceed 1% of U.S. GDP by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Debt Market Concerns - Investors have been worried about fiscal deficits and broader debt sustainability issues since the return of Trump to the White House, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 5% in May due to concerns over tariffs and tax legislation [3]. - The "term premium" phenomenon indicates ongoing market concerns regarding the increasing interest payments on U.S. debt, with the 30-year Treasury yield remaining at 4.93% and the 10-year yield at 4.33% [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Ratings Outlook - S&P's stable outlook suggests that while U.S. fiscal deficits are not expected to improve significantly, they also will not worsen, with net government debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP in the next three years [6]. - The average general government deficit is expected to be around 6% from 2025 to 2028, which is lower than the previous year's 7.5% [6].

Group 1 - 80% of Wall Street analysts expect gold prices to continue consolidating in the coming week, with only 10% bullish and another 10% bearish, indicating a mixed outlook on future gold prices [1] - Retail investors show stronger optimism, with 63% of 183 participants in an online poll predicting a rise in gold prices, while 18% expect a decline and 19% foresee a consolidation [1] - The closing price of gold in Shanghai increased by 0.32%, reaching 777.66 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., which may support dollar assets and put pressure on prices [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has raised the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while ongoing trade tensions in some countries have increased market demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, with resistance at the previous high of 3450 USD, suggesting a need for stronger momentum to break through [3] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to increase volatility in gold prices, but there remains potential for a price surge, with recommendations to construct a bull spread using call options during price pullbacks to reduce long position costs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, which reached a record high in July, and its implications for consumers and the economy [3][4]. Tariff Revenue Growth - In July, U.S. tariff revenue surged to $28 billion, a 273% increase year-over-year, bringing the total for the fiscal year to $142 billion [3]. - The current tariff revenue accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue, with projections suggesting it could exceed 5% under current policies [3]. - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff rates" could generate an additional $1.3 trillion in revenue during its term, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion by 2034 [7]. Impact on Consumers - The average effective tariff rate for U.S. consumers has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1933, leading to a projected 1.8% increase in price levels this year, equating to a $2,400 reduction in annual income per household [8]. - Specific sectors, such as clothing and textiles, are experiencing significant price hikes, with footwear and apparel prices expected to rise by 39% and 37%, respectively [8]. Economic Implications - The increase in tariffs is expected to compress disposable income, reducing demand for imported goods, which could lead to a decline in tariff revenue over time [4][7]. - Despite the rise in tariff revenue, there are concerns that it may not be sufficient to address the growing national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion [11][12]. Future Projections - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that tariff revenue could reach $300 billion for the fiscal year 2025, but experts caution that this growth may have a ceiling due to its negative impact on economic growth [7][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a cumulative federal deficit of $21.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly outpacing expected tariff revenue [12].

Core Insights - The U.S. tariff revenue reached a historic high of $28 billion in July, marking a 273% increase year-over-year, with total revenue for the fiscal year reaching $142 billion [1] - The current tariff revenue accounts for 3.1% of total federal revenue, potentially rising to over 5% under existing policies, a level not seen since World War II [1] - The effective average tariff rate for U.S. consumers has hit 18.6%, the highest since 1933, leading to a projected short-term price increase of 1.8% for consumers [4] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff rate" could generate an additional $1.3 trillion in revenue during its term, potentially reaching $2.8 trillion by 2034 [3] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, there are concerns about its sustainability, as rising import prices may reduce disposable income and demand for imported goods [3][6] - The increase in tariffs has led to a significant burden on consumers, with estimates suggesting a reduction in household income by approximately $2,400 annually due to rising prices [4] Consumer Price Effects - The clothing and textile sectors are particularly affected, with prices for shoes and clothing expected to rise by 39% and 37% respectively in the short term [4] - A recent survey indicated that only 25% of importers are willing to absorb tariff costs, with many manufacturers planning to pass these costs onto consumers [5] - Goldman Sachs estimates that as of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of tariff-related price increases, but this is expected to shift, with consumers potentially bearing 67% of the costs by October [5] Fiscal Challenges - Despite the surge in tariff revenue, it remains insufficient to address the U.S. national debt, which is nearing $37 trillion [6] - The recently passed "Inflation Reduction Act" is projected to incur a cost of $3.4 trillion over the next decade, far exceeding anticipated tariff revenues [6] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a cumulative fiscal deficit of $21.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly overshadowing expected tariff revenue [6] Legal and Policy Challenges - The Trump administration's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, which could significantly reduce future tariff revenue and potentially require refunds of previously collected tariffs [7]

二战以来，美国关税收入从未超过联邦政府总收入的2%，但这一比例现在已达3.1%。 美国关税收入在7月创下历史新高，根据美国财政部8月12日发布的数据，7月单月关税收入飙升至280亿 美元，较去年同期激增273%。本财政年度累计关税收入已达到1420亿美元。 目前，2025财政年度的关税收入占美国联邦总收入的3.1%。美国两党政策中心经济政策副总裁阿卡巴 斯（Shai Akabas）称，二战以来，美国关税收入从未超过联邦政府总收入的2%，现行政策可能将这一 比例推高至5%以上。 值得注意的是，进口关税由美国进口企业缴纳，但成本转嫁机制使得最终负担可能落在消费者身上。美 国劳工统计局（BLS）7月数据显示，进口价格指数环比微涨0.1%。由于该指数测算的是关税前价格， 说明大部分关税成本实际上由进口商承担，而非外国出口商。 伦敦政治经济学院欧洲研究所实践访问教授科多尼奥（Lorenzo Codogno）对第一财经记者表示，特朗 普时期的关税政策实质上是对美国进口商和消费者征收的附加税。他警告这种收入增长模式难以持 续："随着进口商品价格上涨，整体价格水平也将上升，这将压缩可支配收入，从而减少对进口商品的 需求，进口 ...

美国财政部公布的最新数据显示，截至当地时间12日下午，美国联邦政府债务规模总额首次超过37万亿美元。 与此同时，7月份美国政府预算赤字达到2910亿美元。这一数字大大超出市场预期。 路透社的报道指出，美国总统特朗普曾表示，关税让"几十亿美元滚滚流入美国国库"。然而，尽管7月关税收入达到280亿美元，创下历史新高，却仍未能阻 止预算赤字的扩大。 路透社报道截图 对此，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副院长兼宏观研究部主任贾晋京表示，美国国债压力前所未有，关税收入"杯水车薪"。 | 田 Debt to the Penny | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 田 Table 트 Chart | | | + Select ( | | | | | C Reset | | Record Date TJ | Debt Held by the Public ↑↓ | Intragovernmental Holdings TJ | Total Public Debt Outstanding TJ | | mm/dd/yyyy - mm/dd/yyyy 盲 | ರ | ರ | ರ | | 8/11/ ...

【资讯导读】 ·美国关税收入在7月创出新高 ·美国总统特朗普再次督促美联储降息 ·美财长：特朗普对美联储主席人选持"开放态度" ·澳洲联储将利率下调25个基点至3.60% 【市场资讯】 ·美国7月关税收入达280亿美元，同比增长273%，创出新高；经日历调整后，当月预算赤字达到2910亿 美元，较去年同期扩大了10%。 ·美国总统特朗普再次督促美联储降息，并威胁称正考虑允许对美联储主席鲍威尔提起重大诉讼，理由 是美联储总部翻修工程成本严重超支。 ·美国总统特朗普会晤英特尔CEO陈立武后，不再要求其辞职，称赞其奋斗史"惊人"，双方期待紧密合 作。 ·美国财长贝森特表示，美联储应考虑在9月降息50个基点。希望找到一个可以"革新"美联储的人。特朗 普对美联储主席人选持"开放态度"。 ·澳洲联储将利率下调25个基点至3.60%，为2023年4月以来最低水平，符合市场预期。这是澳洲联储今 年第三次降息，该行表示未来决策将取决于经济数据表现。 ·美国7月CPI同比持平于2.7%，低于预期的2.8%；7月核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于预期的3%，创2月份 以来新高。 ·英国7月就业人数减少8353人，为今年1月以来最小降 ...

本财年至今，关税收入已达1420亿美元。今年6月，关税收入的大幅增长曾帮助美国政府实现罕见的月 度盈余(270亿美元)，这是自2015年以来首次在6月实现财政盈余。财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，2025年 全年关税收入有望达到3000亿美元。 与新冠疫情前相比，公共债务的利息成本以及医疗保险和社会保障支出的增加，仍是赤字扩大的主要推 手。 智通财经APP获悉，美国7月关税收入创下月度新高，但这一增长未能阻止月度预算赤字扩大，凸显出 联邦政府持续面临的财政挑战。美国财政部周二发布的数据显示，上月关税收入攀升至280亿美元，较 去年7月激增273%。与此同时，经日历差异调整后，7月月度预算赤字为2910亿美元，较去年同期增加 10%。 尽管如此，多数经济学家及无党派的国会预算办公室(CBO)均认为，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上月签署的 标志性税收与支出法案，将在未来十年加剧美国的财政赤字。 随着本财年(截至9月)临近尾声，美国正走向又一个巨额赤字。财政部官员在电话会议中告知记者，本 财年前10个月(截至7月)的赤字规模为1.63万亿美元。经日历差异调整并剔除2024年收到的递延税款影响 后，这一数字较上一财年同期收窄4 ...