And it's a fresh read on the nation's fiscal health. The aforementioned Steve Leeman with those [music] headlines and could probably also talk about the Fed. Steve.Yeah, Brian. Thanks for that introduction. The Treasury uh reporting that the deficit hits an October record of 284 billion, but with a bunch of asterises.I think that's the plural. Expenses were boosted by a calendar change moving some stuff from uh uh into October from November of about $ 105 billion. So that's also an issue, but they were redu ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised down the long-term fiscal surplus expectations from Trump's tariff policies by $1 trillion, raising concerns about U.S. borrowing needs. The tariff revenues are insufficient to offset the impacts of the tax cuts implemented by the Trump administration [3][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Projections - CBO estimates a total surplus of $3 trillion from 2025 to 2035, down from the previous estimate of $4 trillion made in August [5]. - The tax cuts from Trump's administration are projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade [5]. - CBO Director Philip Swagel noted that about two-thirds of the downward revision is due to adjustments based on new data, and recent tariff rate adjustments have also lowered deficit impact estimates [6]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Revenue - The actual tariff rate is currently estimated to be approximately 16.8%, the highest level since 1935, which is about 14 percentage points higher than a year ago [6]. - For the fiscal year ending September, the U.S. fiscal deficit was $1.78 trillion, with an expected deficit of $1.82 trillion for 2024 [7]. - Higher tariff revenues are expected to cumulatively reduce the budget deficit by $2.5 trillion from 2025 to 2035, saving $500 billion in interest payments due to reduced deficits [7]. Group 3: Trade Agreements and Tariff Adjustments - Recent adjustments to tariff levels aim to alleviate consumer price concerns, with the U.S. considering the removal of tariffs on EU beef and other food products [9]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively seeking to increase exports to the EU and address trade imbalances, with an annual agricultural trade deficit of $23.6 billion [9]. - If the Supreme Court rules tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) invalid, it could significantly impact fiscal revenue, with potential refunds estimated between $750 billion to $1 trillion [10]. Group 4: Current Tariff Revenue - As of September 30, 2025, the federal government has generated nearly $195 billion in revenue from tariffs for the fiscal year [11].

Core Points - The article discusses Trump's proposal to distribute $2000 cash rewards to Americans, which is seen as a political strategy to gain votes ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1][4][12] - The funding for this proposal is claimed to come from tariff revenues, but the actual financial implications suggest a significant shortfall [5][6][12] Group 1: Economic Implications - Trump's announcement of cash rewards is not aimed at stimulating consumption but rather at securing electoral support, particularly from discontented agricultural voters affected by the trade war [4][12] - The projected tariff revenue for 2025 is estimated at $300 billion, which is insufficient to cover the proposed $600 billion payout, leading to increased government fiscal burdens [5][8] - The U.S. federal budget deficit for the 2025 fiscal year is already at $1.8 trillion, and adding $600 billion in cash distributions would exacerbate this issue, potentially leading to inflation [8][10] Group 2: Political Strategy - Trump's focus is on creating a facade of economic prosperity to influence voter sentiment ahead of the elections, which may involve pressuring the Federal Reserve to maintain loose monetary policies [12][13] - The potential for a stock market bubble is highlighted, with risks of a significant downturn following the elections if the economic support is withdrawn [13]

特朗普最近在自己的社交媒体上宣布，将向每位美国公民发放至少2000美元的股息，但"高收入人群"将 不包括在内。如此大规模的类似"刺激"的付款，其经济影响无疑是巨大的，尤其是在股市创下历史新高 的情况下。 首先，谁将收到这笔付款呢？我们可以看看最近一次的刺激付款，也就是2021年3月发放的1400美元刺 激支票。当时，全额付款只给那些收入低于75,000美元的单身申报者、家庭收入低于112,500美元的人 群，以及已婚联合申报者收入低于150,000美元的家庭。相同的标准预计会应用到2025年：目前大约有 2.2亿美国成年人符合这些收入标准，其中大约15%收入最高的人将被排除在外。按照这个比例，2.2亿 人乘以2000美元，支付金额大约为4400亿美元。预计支票金额可能会超过2000美元。 根据已知的数据，2025年第二季度，美国收入前10%的消费者将占美国总支出的49.2%。这一比例达到 了自1989年以来的最高水平。 8月份，美国的关税收入创下了300亿美元的纪录，看起来特朗普确实取得了某些胜利。然而，仅仅2025 年8月，美国政府的财政赤字就高达3450亿美元，而关税收入仅占每月赤字的10%左右，特朗普虽 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury reported a decrease in the budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 to $1.775 trillion, down $410 billion from the previous year, marking the first annual decline since 2022 [1] - The reduction in the deficit is attributed to record net tariff revenues of $195 billion, which increased by $118 billion due to the implementation of new tariffs [1] - Total federal revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached a record $5.235 trillion, an increase of $317 billion or 6% from $4.918 trillion in 2024 [1] - Federal spending for fiscal year 2025 also hit a record high of $7.01 trillion, up $275 billion or 4% from $6.735 trillion in the previous fiscal year [1] - The estimated deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2025 is 5.9%, compared to 6.3% for fiscal year 2024 [1] - In September 2025, the last month of the fiscal year, a record surplus of $198 billion was recorded, an increase of $118 billion or 147% from the same month the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software is seen as a significant escalation in the US-China trade conflict, which could have profound implications for bilateral trade and the global trade system [1] Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Rates - Since the onset of the trade war, US tariff revenue has surged, becoming the fourth largest source of federal revenue, following individual income tax, social security tax, and corporate income tax [6] - From January to June 2025, the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2.2% to 8.9%, with a notable rise in April due to expanded tariffs on a global scale [8][14] - By August 2025, US tariff revenue reached $144.4 billion, 2.8 times that of the previous year, accounting for 4.0% of federal revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 2: Tariff Rates by Trade Partner - The actual average tariff rate imposed by the US on China reached 37.4% by June 2025, with significant increases observed for labor-intensive goods and products affected by Section 232 tariffs [24][29] - The average tariff rates for Japan and South Korea were 15.3% and 12.0%, respectively, while rates for the EU, Vietnam, and India ranged between 5% and 10% [24] - The US has seen a decline in its reliance on Chinese imports, with the share of imports from China dropping to 9.4% of total imports, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [28] Group 3: Trade Performance and Deficits - In the first seven months of 2025, US imports grew by 10.7% and exports by 4.8%, but the trade deficit expanded by 21.3% [19] - The US experienced a decline in trade volume with China and Canada, with imports from China down by 18.9% and exports down by 20.2% [19][20] - Despite high tariffs on China, the overall trade deficit with other countries has increased, indicating that the US still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand [20] Group 4: Future Tariff Trends - The actual tariff rates are expected to converge with nominal rates as various loopholes and exemptions are closed, leading to an increase in effective tariff rates across different economies [33][34] - Factors such as preemptive imports and exemptions for certain goods have contributed to the current lower effective tariff rates, but these are anticipated to diminish over time [33][35]

Core Points - The U.S. has generated over $200 billion in tariff revenues in 2025, highlighting the significance of President Trump's trade duties as a major source of government income [1][2] - Tariff revenues reached $31.4 billion in August, the highest monthly total for 2025, with September projected to surpass this figure [1][2] - The total tariff revenue for 2025 is reported at $213.3 billion, with a steady increase from $17.4 billion in April to $29 billion in July [2] Revenue Trends - Tariff revenues increased from $17.4 billion in April to $23.9 billion in May, then to $28 billion in June, and finally reaching $29 billion in July [2] - August's tariff revenue was $31.4 billion, and September's revenue is on track to set a new record [1][2] Economic Impact - American businesses bear the cost of import taxes, which are often passed on to consumers through higher prices [3] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of Trump's tariffs, which are a key component of his economic strategy [3][5] Legal Context - A federal appeals court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing new tariffs using emergency powers, stating that such powers rest with Congress [6] - The court allowed the tariffs to remain in effect until mid-October, but this ruling does not apply to tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [6][8] Government Position - The White House has defended Trump's tariffs as a legitimate exercise of presidential powers aimed at protecting the economy, expressing confidence in a favorable outcome from the Supreme Court [9]

Core Viewpoint - The influx of tariff revenues and immigration is contributing to a decrease in the neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Tariff revenues are currently flowing into the economy, which is exerting downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - Immigration is also identified as a factor that is lowering the neutral interest rate [1]

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - The main silver futures contract in Shanghai closed at 10,035 CNY/kg on September 12, marking a 2.42% increase, with an intraday high of 10,065 CNY/kg and a low of 9,777 CNY/kg [1] - COMEX silver closed at 42.68 USD/oz, up 1.46%, with an intraday high of 43.04 USD/oz and a low of 41.90 USD/oz [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Revenue and Budget Deficit - In August, U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high for a single month at 30 billion USD, a 296% increase compared to August of the previous year, contributing to a budget deficit of 345 billion USD, which is 15% larger than the same month last year [2] - For the first 11 months of the fiscal year, total tariff revenue amounted to 172 billion USD, with expectations that annual tariff revenue could reach 500 billion USD by year-end [2] - Despite the surge in revenue, the total budget deficit for the fiscal year reached 1.973 trillion USD, only surpassed by the deficits in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 crisis [2][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a record increase in tariff revenue, reaching $30 billion in August, a 296% year-over-year surge, following President Trump's tariff hikes [1] - Despite the increase in tariff revenue, the federal budget deficit for August was $345 billion, a 15% increase compared to the same month last year, marking it as the third-largest deficit in the first 11 months of the fiscal year [1] - Cumulative tariff revenue for the fiscal year up to August reached $172 billion, with expectations from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that it could approach an annualized level of $500 billion by year-end [1] Group 2 - Personal income tax revenue continued to grow in August, reflecting rising wage levels and increased employment, while corporate tax revenue saw a significant decline [2] - If tariff revenue remains at August levels, total tariff revenue for the year is expected to approach $300 billion, although there are concerns about potential legal challenges to the tariffs that could result in refunds of about half of the collected amounts [2]